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Monmouth University Poll NATIONAL: DEM 2020 DIVERSITY NOT A Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Released: Contact: Tuesday, April 23, 2019 PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769 (cell); 732-263-5858 (office) [email protected] Follow on Twitter: @PollsterPatrick NATIONAL: DEM 2020 DIVERSITY NOT A PRIORITY Biden stable, Bernie sags, Buttigieg surges West Long Branch, NJ – Diversity may be the byword for the 2020 field of Democrats, but it does not appear to be a priority in choosing a challenger to Trump according to the Monmouth University Poll. Most Democratic voters say race and gender are not factors in determining who should be the party’s presidential nominee. There have been some shifts in the current beauty contest – with a noted surge by a small city mayor – but the front-runner spot has held steady as former Vice President Joe Biden reportedly is set to jump into the race this week. Race and gender do not seem to be important factors for Democratic voters when considering who the party should choose to run against Trump. Fully 87% say the race of the nominee does not matter. Just 5% say it would be better for Democrats to nominate a person of color, which is offset by 6% who say it would actually be better for the party to nominate a white candidate. Similarly, 77% say the gender of the nominee does not matter. Just 7% say it would be better for Democrats to nominate a woman, while slightly more (12%) say it would actually be better for the party to nominate a man. “This is the most diverse field of presidential candidates in history, but that doesn’t seem to be a major consideration for Democratic voters at this early stage of the campaign. It’s probably a large reason why a couple of old white guys are leading the pack right now,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. Among a field of 24 announced and potential contenders, Biden currently has the support of 27% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters, which is similar to his 28% support in March and 29% in January. Support for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is currently at 20%, which is down slightly from 25% in March, but still higher than his 16% support in January. “If Biden does enter the race this week, he starts off with a fairly stable amount of good will from Democrats. We might even expect to see a small bump after his announcement, but the bigger question 1 Monmouth University Polling Institute 04/23/19 will be what happens when those voters start taking a closer look at him on the campaign trail. It’s a long way to Iowa and a lot can happen,” said Murray. South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg currently has 8% support. He registered less than 1% in prior Monmouth polls. California Sen. Kamala Harris has 8% support, off just slightly from 10% in March and 11% in January. Rounding out the field of top contenders are Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 6% (from 8% in both March and January) and former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke at 4% (6% in March and 7% in January). Others who score at least 1% include New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker (2%, from 5% in March and 4% in January), former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (2%, from 1% in prior polls), Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (1%, from 3% in March and 2% in January), and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (1%, from 1% in March). The remaining 14 names asked about in the survey receive support from less than 1% of Democratic voters at this time, which is basically unchanged from their support levels in prior national Monmouth polls. Most of the top contenders saw a decline of 2 to 3 points in their support since March, while Sanders actually dropped by 5 points and Biden lost only one point. The major exception to this trend is Buttigieg, whose support shot up 8 points from basically nothing one month ago. The other sizable shift in this poll is the number of Democrats who do not lean toward any candidate. This undecided group currently stands at 14%, up from 8% in March. “You cannot deny that Buttigieg is experiencing a real moment right now, but it’s important to remember there is a lot of fluidity in this field. Voters are not only moving from candidate to candidate but also from candidate to undecided. Right now, the top tier is determined largely by who has a high national profile. This may not gel with how the contest will play out in the early states,” said Murray. If, contrary to current media reports, Biden chooses not to run, Sanders would move into the front-runner spot with 27% support (down from 32% in March), Buttigieg 11% (from less than 1%), Harris 11% (from 15%), Warren 8% (from 10%), O’Rourke 6% (from 7%), Booker 3% (from 6%), Hickenlooper 2% (from 1%), and Klobuchar 2% (from 3%). Biden’s overall rating among Democrats has declined following complaints from some women about his interactions with them, but there are two important caveats to this finding: (1) Biden remains the most popular contender in the field by far and (2) his closest rival has also experienced a similar drop in standing during this time. Biden’s net favorability rating among Democratic voters stands at +56 (72% favorable and 16% unfavorable), which is down from +63 last month (76% favorable and 13% unfavorable). It is worth noting that the March results already showed a decline from Biden’s net +71 in January (80%-9%), well before the recent controversy emerged. Sanders’ rating now stands at +44 (65% 2 Monmouth University Polling Institute 04/23/19 favorable and 21% unfavorable), which is down from +53 in March (70%-17%) and +49 in January (68%-19%). 2020 DEMOCRATIC FIELD – PARTY VOTER OPINION Total opinion (%) Net rating Apr ’19 Mar ’19 Jan ’19 Apr ’19 Mar ’19 Jan ’19 88 89 89 Joe Biden +56 +63 +71 86 87 87 Bernie Sanders +44 +53 +49 70 68 74 Elizabeth Warren +32 +30 +40 60 64 59 Kamala Harris +40 +42 +33 56 55 55 Cory Booker +24 +31 +33 55 50 50 Beto O’Rourke +31 +26 +32 41 n/a 14 Pete Buttigieg +29 n/a +2 40 39 31 Amy Klobuchar +14 +13 +15 Buttigieg’s rating has shot up since January going from a net +2 (8% favorable and 6% unfavorable) to a net +29 (35%-6%) in the current poll after bursting onto the national scene. Other top tier candidates saw moderate shifts in their ratings. O’Rourke’s current net +31 rating (43%-12%) is up slightly from +26 in March (38%-12%) and back to near where it was in January at +32 (41%-9%). Booker’s rating declined to +24 (40%-16%) from +31 in March (43%-12%) and +33 in January (44%- 11%). Warren’s current net +32 rating (51% favorable and 19% unfavorable) has held steady from +30 in March (49%-19%), but is still lower than her +40 rating in January (57%-17%). Harris’ rating has also held steady at +40 (50%-10%), compared to +42 in March (53%-11%) – both of which are higher than her January rating of +33 (46%-13%). Klobuchar’s rating is also unmoved at +14 (27%-13%), compared with +13 in March (26%-13%) and +15 in January (23%-8%). “National primary polls have limited utility at this stage of the game. They give us a sense of who is breaking through the media noise, but the vast majority of the voters we poll nationally are not paying attention and in fact will never have the opportunity to winnow down the field at the ballot box. It’s worth looking at these results in the context of polls from the early states, where all these candidates are better known,” said Murray. Monmouth conducted a poll of likely Iowa caucusgoers earlier this month. Candidate familiarity – as measured by the percentage of voters who could offer an opinion – was higher for all candidates in that poll than in the current national results, including Biden (4 points higher), Sanders (7 points higher), Buttigieg (13 points higher), Harris (14 points higher), Booker (14 points higher), Warren (17 points higher), O’Rourke (18 points higher), and Klobuchar (21 points higher). 3 Monmouth University Polling Institute 04/23/19 Sanders is the only one of these eight contenders who has a lower rating among likely Iowa voters (net +41) than he does among all Democratic-identifiers nationally (+44). Klobuchar, on the other hand, has a significantly better rating in Iowa (+41) than she does nationally (+14). Others who do better in Iowa than nationally include O’Rourke (+47 versus +31), Warren (+47 versus +32), and Booker (+38 versus +24); and to a lesser degree Biden (+64 versus +56), Harris (+48 versus +40), and Buttigieg (+36 versus +29). “National prominence is certainly important because it helps drive fundraising, but we shouldn’t lose sight of candidates who might be well-positioned in key states even if the national media isn’t showering them with attention right now,” said Murray. The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from April 11 to 15, 2019 with 801 adults. Results in this release are based on 330 registered voters who identify as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party in the United States, which has a +/- 5.4 percentage point sampling margin of error.
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