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Climate: Observations, Projections and Impacts: Argentina

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Climate: Observations, Projections and Impacts: Argentina Climate: Observations, projections and impacts: Argentina Met Office Simon N. Gosling, University of Nottingham Robert Dunn, Met Office Fiona Carrol, Met Office Nikos Christidis, Met Office John Fullwood, Met Office Diogo de Gusmao, Met Office Nicola Golding, Met Office Lizzie Good, Met Office Trish Hall, Met Office Lizzie Kendon, Met Office John Kennedy, Met Office Kirsty Lewis, Met Office Rachel McCarthy, Met Office Carol McSweeney, Met Office Colin Morice, Met Office David Parker, Met Office Matthew Perry, Met Office Peter Stott, Met Office Kate Willett, Met Office Myles Allen, University of Oxford Nigel Arnell, Walker Institute, University of Reading Dan Bernie, Met Office Richard Betts, Met Office Niel Bowerman, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Bastiaan Brak, University of Leeds John Caesar, Met Office Andy Challinor, University of Leeds Rutger Dankers, Met Office Fiona Hewer, Fiona's Red Kite Chris Huntingford, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Alan Jenkins, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Nick Klingaman, Walker Institute, University of Reading Kirsty Lewis, Met Office Ben Lloyd-Hughes, Walker Institute, University of Reading Jason Lowe, Met Office Rachel McCarthy, Met Office James Miller, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Robert Nicholls, University of Southampton Maria Noguer, Walker Institute, University of Reading Friedreike Otto, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Paul van der Linden, Met Office Rachel Warren, University of East Anglia The country reports were written by a range of climate researchers, chosen for their subject expertise, who were drawn from institutes across the UK. Authors from the Met Office and the University of Nottingham collated the contributions in to a coherent narrative which was then reviewed. The authors and contributors of the reports are as above. Developed at the request of: Climate: Observations, projections and impacts Research conducted by: Argentina We have reached a critical year in our response to There is already strong scientific evidence that the climate change. The decisions that we made in climate has changed and will continue to change Cancún put the UNFCCC process back on track, saw in future in response to human activities. Across the us agree to limit temperature rise to 2 °C and set us in world, this is already being felt as changes to the the right direction for reaching a climate change deal local weather that people experience every day. to achieve this. However, we still have considerable work to do and I believe that key economies and Our ability to provide useful information to help major emitters have a leadership role in ensuring everyone understand how their environment has a successful outcome in Durban and beyond. changed, and plan for future, is improving all the time. But there is still a long way to go. These To help us articulate a meaningful response to climate reports – led by the Met Office Hadley Centre in change, I believe that it is important to have a robust collaboration with many institutes and scientists scientific assessment of the likely impacts on individual around the world – aim to provide useful, up to date countries across the globe. This report demonstrates and impartial information, based on the best climate that the risks of a changing climate are wide-ranging science now available. This new scientific material and that no country will be left untouched by climate will also contribute to the next assessment from the change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. I thank the UK’s Met Office Hadley Centre for their However, we must also remember that while we hard work in putting together such a comprehensive can provide a lot of useful information, a great piece of work. I also thank the scientists and officials many uncertainties remain. That’s why I have put in from the countries included in this project for their place a long-term strategy at the Met Office to work interest and valuable advice in putting it together. ever more closely with scientists across the world. I hope this report will inform this key debate on one Together, we’ll look for ways to combine more and of the greatest threats to humanity. better observations of the real world with improved computer models of the weather and climate; which, The Rt Hon. Chris Huhne MP, Secretary of State for over time, will lead to even more detailed and Energy and Climate Change confident advice being issued. Julia Slingo, Met Office Chief Scientist Introduction Understanding the potential impacts of climate change is essential for informing both adaptation strategies and actions to avoid dangerous levels of climate change. A range of valuable national studies have been carried out and published, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has collated and reported impacts at the global and regional scales. But assessing the amount of information about past climate change and its future impacts has been available at Each report contains: data on extreme events. Fourth Assessment Report from the IPCC. Dangerous Climate Change programme (AVOID) and supporting literature. through international cooperation. Summary Climate observations There is higher confidence that there have been increases in the frequency of warm nights in the central and northern regions of Argentina than further south. There has been a general increase in spring and winter temperatures averaged over the country likely as a result of human influence on climate, making the occurrence of warm seasonal temperatures more frequent and cold seasonal temperatures less frequent. There is some confidence that there has been a small increase in annual total precipitation between 1960 and 2003 over the central and northern region of the country. Climate change projections For the A1B emission scenario the CMIP3 ensemble projects temperature increases of 2 to 2.5°C over much of Argentina with a good degree of agreement. Over northern parts of the country, larger changes of up to 4°C are projected, though with less model agreement over north-eastern areas. Ensemble agreement on changes in precipitation is low over most parts of Argentina, as over much of South America, but decreases of between 5% and 20% are projected over the south of the country. Northern, and particularly north-eastern regions, are projected to experience increases of up to 20%. Climate change impact projections Crop yields A definitive conclusion on the impact of climate change on crop yields in Argentina cannot be drawn due to the uncertainties in the modelling process. However, the majority of studies included did show a decrease in crop yield, by varying amounts, across a variety of crop types. 1 Food security Argentina is currently a country with extremely low levels of undernourishment. Global-scale studies included here generally conclude that Argentina is likely to remain food secure over the next 40 years. One study concluded that the national economy of Argentina presents a very low vulnerability to climate change impacts on fisheries by the 2050s. Another projects that small reductions (<5%) in maximum fish catch potential are possible by the 2050s. Water stress and drought Observational studies show that drought occurrence has decreased in Argentina in recent decades. There is a general consensus that Argentina as a whole may not be exposed to major water stress with climate change. However, several of these studies suggest that south-west Argentina and north Argentina are vulnerable to a moderate increase in water stress with climate change. Recent simulations by the AVOID programme confirm the consensus view of global- and regional-scale studies, projecting that the median population exposed to an increase in water stress due to climate change is around 5% by 2050. As with other sectors related to rainfall, uncertainty in the potential influence of a changing climate on ENSO introduces significant uncertainty to projections. Pluvial flooding and rainfall Recent studies indicate an increase in precipitation extremes with climate change for Argentina, consistent with the findings of the IPCC AR4. Uncertainties related to projections of ENSO behaviour with climate change, and the resulting impact upon precipitation, remain large. Fluvial flooding There is much uncertainty in future fluvial flooding in Argentina, partly due to limited understanding of potential changes in ENSO with climate change, and also because of a lack of published regional studies. 2 Simulations by the AVOID programme project a tendency for increasing flood risk in Argentina, particularly later in the 21st century. Coastal regions In one global-scale study, Argentina was ranked the 5th highest (out of 84 developing countries) with respect to the amount of agricultural land that could be submerged due to a 1m Sea Level Rise (SLR). A sub-national-scale study suggests that Buenos Aires could be affected significantly by SLR. 3 4 Table of Contents Chapter 1 – Climate Observations ....................................................................... 9 Rationale .............................................................................................................................. 10 Climate overview ................................................................................................................. 12 Analysis of long-term features in the daily mean temperature ........................................... 13 Temperature extremes ......................................................................................................
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