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China's Online Gaming Weekly (Apr 8)

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China's Online Gaming Weekly (Apr 8) CHINA/HONG KONG China's online gaming weekly Top 15 grossing mobile games Apr-08 vs Apr-1 English name Publisher (Apr 8) 1 = FWJ Netease 2 ▲1 WWJ Netease 3 ▲3 Honour of Kings Tencent Chinese game giants eyeing VR 4 ▲1 Dragon Ball Z Tencent 5 ▲2 Clash Royale Supercell Weekly changes: 6 ▲2 Naruto Tencent 7 ▲2 The Legend of MIR 2 Tencent . Tencent published the highly anticipated mobile game Dragon Ball Z based 8 ▲3 6L 3D Tencent 9 ▲1 Sword and Magic Longtu on the popular Japanese anime of the same name. This is the second top 10 ▼6 We Fly Tencent Japanese IP from Tencent after Naruto early this year. The title reached top 5 11 ▼9 Cross Fire Tencent 12 ▲110 Kai-ri-Sei Million Arthur Netease grossing. Please also refer to David Gibson’s MacVisit note on the developer. 13 ▲10 King of Fighters 98 UM Tencent Tencent’s no. of top 100 grossing mobile games dropped from 29 to 26, The Legend of the Perfect whereas Netease’s increased from 8 to 9. 14 = Condor Heroes World Happy 15 = Kai Xin Xiao Xiao Le Elements Chinese game giants eyeing VR Source: AppAnnie, Macquarie Research, April 2016 . While VR has been the buzzword in China’s gaming industry, leading game Number of top grossing mobile games developers embrace the up-and-coming technology in their own way based Tencent Netease on their ambition, software and hardware expertise. Tencent is one of the 1-5 2 2 most ambitious players among all with a multi-year plan to build a developer 6-10 4 0 11-30 7 3 community based on its VR SDK and develop its own VR headsets. Baofeng 30-50 7 2 shares similar ambition in the space with already 1mn VR headsets shipped 60-100 6 2 1-100 26 9 by Mar 2016. Netease and Perfect World focus on what they do best – Source: AppAnnie, Macquarie Research, April 2016 developing VR-supported games. Kunlun and CMGE, on the other hand, invested in the VR hardware makers to break into the space. Reports: Tencent – Cultivating Internet Plus eco-system . According to China VR Industry Development Report announced in Mar, (report link) about 960k users purchased a VR device in 2015. 70%+ of them used the VR device on a daily basis. The daily average time spent is about 34min. Movies, Netease – Ad and e-Com the bright sports travel, games, 360-degree videos and photos are among the top consumed (report link) content. Positive read-through from ATVI results . Tencent. Tencent targets to launch head-mounted display in 1H16 that can (report link) connect to its first-generation gaming console miniStation and PC as an open Changyou – Less is more (report link) platform for developers. In 3Q16, Tencent targets to launch battery-powered Tencent – The moment is coming (report link) portable HMD along with joysticks. The consumer version will come out in Netease – In search of the third hit (report link) 2H16. Handset-based VR is scheduled to launch in 2017. We believe VR adoption for e-Sports is still in the early stage. Linekong – Focus back on 1P and own specialties (report link) . Baofeng. Baofeng announced that its VR headset shipments – already in the 4th generation – surpassed 1mn units by Mar 2016. The company expects 1mn units will be the hurdle for new entrants in 2016, which will soon rise to 10mn units in 2017. Baofeng also set up funds dedicated to development of VR content. Netease. Netease announced its self-developed VR-supported Genesis of Destiny at GDC in mid Mar. With 50+ game designers and engineers working on the title for more than a year, this title is a real-time future-themed Analyst(s) Wendy Huang, CFA MMORPG and is set for a global launch. +852 3922 3378 [email protected] Hillman Chan, CFA . Perfect World. Its US-based subsidiary rolled out the VR-supported version +852 3922 3716 [email protected] of Subnautica along with Oculus Rift on Mar 28. Julia Pan +852 3922 4211 [email protected] . Kunlun. The company invested in VR technology and hardware makers Joe Yu ANTVR and Nibiru in early Mar. ANTVR previously completed fund raising on +852 3922 1160 [email protected] Kickstarter for its first VR headsets and has also partnered with Lenovo on VR 8 April 2016 integration with handsets. Macquarie Capital Limited . CMGE. The company announced to invest in the VR headset maker 3Glasses in late Mar. Please refer to page 3 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. Macquarie Research China's online gaming weekly (Apr 8) Fig 1 Top 15 grossing mobile games Grossing rank Grossing rank Apr-08 vs Apr-1 English name Publisher IP IP type Mar-25 Feb-26 Jan-29 Dec-25 Nov-27 Oct-30 Sep-30 1 = Fantasy Westward Journey Netease Y Game, Chinese literature 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 ▲1 Westward Journey Netease Y Game, Chinese literature 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 ▲3 Honour of Kings Tencent Y Game 5 4 5 11 12 9 - 4 ▲1 Dragon Ball Z Tencent Y Japanese anime - - - - - - - 5 ▲2 Clash Royale Supercell 4 - - - - - - 6 ▲2 Naruto Tencent Y Japanese manga 3 8 6 - - - - 7 ▲2 The Legend of MIR 2 Tencent Y Game 10 2 3 3 4 3 3 8 ▲3 6L 3D Tencent Y Chinese literature 21 6 10 6 3 4 - 9 ▲1 Sword and Magic Longtu 6 - - - - - - 10 ▼6 We Fly Tencent 35 12 19 4 7 10 6 11 ▼9 Cross Fire Tencent Y Game 8 7 4 10 - - - 12 ▲110 Kai-ri-Sei Million Arthur Netease - - 43 56 50 48 28 13 ▲10 King of Fighters 98 UM Tencent Y Game 7 15 16 12 6 5 5 14 = The Legend of the Condor HeroesPerfect World Y Novel 13 - - - - - - 15 = Kai Xin Xiao Xiao Le Happy Elements 15 13 8 21 10 12 9 Source: AppAnnie, Macquarie Research, April 2016 Fig 2 Number of top grossing mobile games Tencent Grossing rank 31-Aug 30-Sep 30-Oct 27-Nov 25-Dec 29-Jan 26-Feb 4-Mar 11-Mar 18-Mar 25-Mar 1-Apr 8-Apr 1-5 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 6-10 2 3 3 3 5 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 4 11-30 8 7 9 8 7 6 9 8 10 7 5 8 7 30-50 7 9 9 7 7 11 9 7 6 8 9 8 7 60-100 8 9 6 8 7 8 6 7 9 9 11 7 6 Total 29 31 30 29 29 31 29 28 31 29 30 29 26 Netease Grossing rank 31-Aug 30-Sep 30-Oct 27-Nov 25-Dec 29-Jan 26-Feb 4-Mar 11-Mar 18-Mar 25-Mar 1-Apr 8-Apr 1-5 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 6-10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11-30 3 2 1 2 1 4 2 3 0 1 0 0 3 30-50 1 1 2 3 4 2 1 0 5 2 4 3 2 60-100 2 5 3 0 2 0 2 2 1 3 1 3 2 Total 7 10 8 7 9 8 7 7 8 8 7 8 9 Source: AppAnnie, Macquarie Research, April 2016 8 April 2016 2 Macquarie Research China's online gaming weekly (Apr 8) Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Volatility index definition* Financial definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand This is calculated from the volatility of historical All "Adjusted" data items have had the following Outperform – return >3% in excess of benchmark return price movements. adjustments made: Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for Underperform – return >3% below benchmark return Very high–highest risk – Stock should be catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal – investors should be aware this stock is highly Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend speculative. revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & yield minority interests Macquarie – Asia/Europe High – stock should be expected to move up or Outperform – expected return >+10% down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% be aware this stock could be speculative. ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets Underperform – expected return <-10% ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average Medium – stock should be expected to move up total assets Macquarie – South Africa or down at least 30–40% in a year. ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Outperform – expected return >+10% Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Low–medium – stock should be expected to *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average Underperform – expected return <-10% move up or down at least 25–30% in a year. number of shares Macquarie - Canada Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Low – stock should be expected to move up or All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return down at least 15–25% in a year. are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks Reporting Standards).
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