Syria's Fracturing Conflict Escalates As Russia and Iran Face Higher Costs

Interview Hamish de Bretton-Gordon Why Qatar The problem of on chemical is in a bind school dropouts weapons’ in Gaza in MENA proliferation Page 3 Page 6 Pages 6, 20 Issue 145, Year 3 www.thearabweekly.com UK £2/ EU €2.50 February 25, 2018 Syria’s fracturing conflict escalates as Russia and Iran face higher costs Simon Speakman Cordall in any reconstruction effort and conflict zone, Damascus is vying denied access to the oil-rich lands with the United States, Iran, Rus- east of the Euphrates, the events sia, Turkey, Iran and their proxies Tunis in Afrin and Eastern Ghouta must for dominance within an increas- be a distraction from its goal of ingly complex field of wavering yria’s northern theatre consolidating its reach in southern alliances and conflicting agen- illustrates the risks in- Syria, close to the Israeli border. das. The Assad regime wants to volved in the fracturing The cost of Tehran’s support for reassert control over the country of the 7-year-old conflict the Syrian regime is beginning to while Ankara, motivated by its an- that has defied all interna- bite. Iran is subsidising the war ti-Kurdish agenda, aims to remove Stional attempts to stop the blood- effort with billions of dollars al- Afrin-based units of the Kurdish shed. located in next year’s defence People’s Protection Units (YPG) In Afrin, and elsewhere in Syr- budget, London-based IranFocus from its border. ia, pulling the strings of the war reported. Under a deal hammered out in seems to have come with a higher Within Iran itself the situation Moscow, the Assad regime’s Shia cost than anticipated by Moscow is increasingly dire. Two years af- popular forces, an array of militias and Tehran. ter the lifting of US sanctions, un- aligned under the Iran-sponsored Supporting the Assad regime’s employment among the 15-29 age National Defence Forces (NDF), scorched-earth campaign in East- bracket remains more than 24%, was supposed to enter and assume ern Ghouta has painted Russia official statistics indicate. control of Afrin. The deal fell apart into a diplomatic corner with Mos- In this context, it is not obvi- as soon as it became clear that the cow having to justify its partner- ous how long Russia and Iran will NDF was entering Afrin in support ship with Syrian President Bashar tolerate the Turkish sideshow in of — rather than as a replacement Assad. Afrin. for — the YPG. A further escalation Russia is sensitive to percep- with Ankara followed. tions of its role in the conflict. Its Complicating matters is the image as unchallenged victor in United States’ hesitation to back the war against terror has been Pulling the strings of the Kurdish allies of the Syr- eroding as pictures of the hor- the war seems to have ian Democratic Forces (SDF), who rors of Eastern Ghouta shock the come with a higher have been instrumental in the world. success of the war against the Is- Exacerbating Russian difficul- cost than anticipated lamic State. Approximately 2,000 ties is the high body count among by Moscow and Tehran. US soldiers and their SDF partners its “private contractors,” with as control much of the oil-rich and many as 200 killed in a strike by arable land east of the Euphrates, US forces on February 7, raising territory the United States intends the spectre of the country’s disas- “Iran isn’t especially interested to use to roll back the influence of trous campaign in Afghanistan in in what’s happening in the north- Iran and Russia in Syria. the 1980s. west right now,” Nicholas Heras, a The only certainty is that the Tehran is increasingly resentful Middle East security fellow at the regional and global powers’ con- of Russia’s monopoly of economic Centre for a New American Secu- flicting agendas risk fuelling war and military contracts. Outlets, rity said via Skype. “[Its] focus is in Syria and beyond for years to such as the Islamic Revolutionary very much on the south-west. Is- come. Guard Corps-affiliated Fars news rael is what they care about and, agency, question Iran’s poten- whatever the challenges raised by Simon Speakman Cordall is the tial share of post-war dividends, Afrin, they pale next to that posed Syria/Lebanon Section Editor for Never-ending war. People wave the Syrian flag and portraits of which are likely to be dominated by a confrontation between Iran The Arab Weekly. President Bashar Assad and Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader by Moscow. and Israel.” Abdullah Ocalan as a convoy of pro-Syrian government fighters For Iran, uncertain of its share In the already crowded northern P2-3, 7 arrives in Afrin, on February 22. (AFP) Water conservation is no game in Jordan, or maybe it is Roufan Nahhas up you receive an important tip Jordan and important tips on how metres annually. Available water in Jordan compared to 6.3 million regarding conserving water and, to address it. resources offer 800-900 million users in December 2017, Internet when the snake takes them down, “Our aim is to increase public cubic metres (mcm) of water per World Stats reported. Amman users receive a message that en- awareness and build a shared sense year, which meets the needs of ap- Playing to learn is not a new courages them to conserve water,” of water conservation responsibil- proximately 3 million people. Jor- concept as this method has prov- ordan’s Ministry of Water Salama explained. ity among all ages,” Salama said. dan has a population of almost 10 en effective when dealing with and Irrigation has intro- The application, designed to The Ministry of Water and Irriga- million. younger people, said Abla Twal, duced a smartphone appli- simulate modern games found on tion said water per capita in Jordan Stressing the importance of 30, a teacher at a private school in cation based on the popu- smart devices, provides informa- was 88% below the international smart applications in educating Amman. lar retro game “Snakes and tion about the water situation in water poverty line of 1,000 cubic the public, Mohammed Hmedat, “Smartphones and tablets are JLadders” to shed light on the im- an expert in Android-based games, becoming more and more popu- portance of water conservation in said the effects of such games were lar among students and there are the kingdom. usually positive. many games that are used in class- The app was introduced several “The fact that it is based on a rooms as part of learning meth- months ahead of the usually dry popular board game makes it easier ods. My students enjoy it more summer that brings severe water to relate to and it will gain popular- than books when we ask them to shortages. ity in no time due to its education- use their tablets and download a Ministry spokesman Omar Sala- al aspect. Parents should encour- certain application to learn math, ma pointed out that the game is age their children to use this game English or science,” Twal said. among a series of applications that and learn about the importance of “The new generation is being target all of society. conserving water at home, school swamped with technology and this “The application is based on a and anywhere.” technology has a good and a bad popular board game, which we and The penetration rate of smart- side and parents should draw the our families used to play, but this phones in Jordan as of March line. Engaging students in the edu- time it is played using smart ap- 2017 was 83% compared to 99% cational process through games is plications on smart devices that in the United Arab Emirates, 95% an excellent way.” are used by almost everyone. The in Qatar, 93% in Saudi Arabia, 91% The game can be accessed at: game can be found on Google Play in Lebanon and 65% in Tunisia, https://play.google.com/store/ and it is part of the ministry’s cor- statista.com states. apps/details?id=com.windforce- porate responsibility efforts,” he Jordan has seen a strong increase world.ladder. added. in the number of internet users in “The functionality of the game is Serious game. A young boy uses the water app, which is based on the recent years. In December 2000, Roufan Nahhas is a journalist simple: When the ladder takes you popular “Snakes and Ladders” game in Amman. (Roufan Nahhas) there were 127,300 internet users based in Jordan. 2 February 25, 2018 Cover Story Syria US Syria strategy under fire as events expose Washington’s inconsistencies Thomas Seibert Alterman, director of the Middle East Programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies Washington (CSIS), a think-tank in Washington, wrote in an analysis on the CSIS he escalation of the con- website. Tillerson failed to present a flict in Syria is exposing convincing argument for why Amer- weaknesses in the United icans, sceptical of yet another open- States’ strategy for the ended commitment in a faraway war-torn country only country, should care about Syria and Ta month after its rollout, analysts had not defined Syria’s place on the said. list of US priorities in the world, he “We know what the United States pointed out. doesn’t want to see: Russia and “It is hard to cover up this basic Iran,” Alex Vatanka, an expert on fact: The United States is less com- security issues at the Middle East In- mitted to shaping an outcome in stitute in Washington, said.

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