Informações E Democracia

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Informações E Democracia UNIVERSIDADE AUTÓNOMA DE LISBOA Departamento de Relações Internacionais OS LIMITES DAS INFORMAÇÕES ESTRATÉGICAS Eficácia versus Transparência e Legalidade, Como Duplo Dilema de Actuação Dissertação de Mestrado em Estudos da Paz e da Guerra nas Novas Relações Internacionais Candidato: Francisco José Aldeia Carapeto Orientador: Professor Doutor Luís Moita Co-Orientador: Professor Doutor Heitor Romana Lisboa, NOV 2010 AGRADECIMENTOS Foram vários os colaboradores que com as suas preciosas sugestões, interesse e dispêndio do seu tempo, contribuíram para a realização deste trabalho. Nesse sentido, importa realçar e agradecer publicamente todo o apoio que me foi prestado. Em primeiro lugar, agradeço a orientação concedida pelo Prof. Luís Moita, pelos criteriosos e generosos pareceres e sugestões que formulou ao longo do tempo que durou a elaboração desta investigação. Merecem especial referência os seus conselhos sobre as questões metodológicas, que incorporaram rigor científico e contribuíram para que a dissertação chegasse a bom termo. Ao Prof. Heitor Romana, na qualidade de co-orientador e especialista na matéria, agradece-se os contributos para o aprofundamento da investigação do tema. Ao capitão-de-mar-e-guerra Fernandes Rodrigues, agradece-se as diversas críticas e sugestões técnicas, cuja experiência profissional tanto no Gabinete Nacional de Segurança, como conselheiro técnico de embaixada, muito contribuiu para a precisão e realidade dos factos aqui considerados. Um último agradecimento vai para o Maj. Falcão Escorrega e Maj. Cordeiro de Menezes, companheiros de docência no IESM, pela sua forma pronta, incansável e eficaz como satisfizeram os diversos pedidos de bibliografia, que muito contribuíram para o enriquecimento deste trabalho. i RESUMO As informações não garantem o sucesso num choque de vontades, porque esse papel pertence à estratégia mas constituem um precioso apoio, e não conseguem afirmar peremptoriamente o que vai ocorrer no futuro como de adivinhação se tratasse, mas sim prospectar acontecimentos com carácter probabilístico baseados em indícios. Por outro lado, os riscos associados às operações cobertas e de contra-informações forçam a pesquisa a agir com elevado grau de secretismo e redundância, o que impõe limites à sua transparência e eficácia. A actividade de informações têm-se revelado decisiva em momentos particulares na guerra e na paz, mas fundamentalmente os governos servem-se dela para reduzir a incerteza do processo decisório em matéria de política externa e defesa, garantir de forma sistemática a segurança nacional e em último, obterem a melhor vantagem nas suas relações internacionais. Apesar da sua necessidade indubitável, razão pela qual os Estados ainda nos dias de hoje manterem este tipo de órgão nas suas estruturas públicas, as informações nem sempre tiveram o lugar que mereciam no âmbito do pensamento estratégico. Mesmo sendo a sua utilidade incontestável, os serviços de informações são frequentemente encarados com desconfiança, tal deve-se em grande parte às suas falhas e à sua capacidade de manipulação. Razão pela qual, Estados governados por regimes democráticos instituírem mecanismos de controlo. Ainda assim, esta situação deve ser encarada como excepção e não como a regra, daí em nada ter beliscado o aprofundamento da sua institucionalização apesar do ambiente estratégico do pós Guerra Fria colocar novos desafios. PALAVRAS-CHAVE Serviços de Informações, surpresa estratégica, falhas, limites, controlo, legalidade, eficácia, transparência, sigilo, democracia, ética, Direito Internacional. ii ABSTRACT The intelligence does not guarantee success in a clash of wills, because that role belongs to the strategy but also offer valuable support, and cannot categorically state what will happen in the future as they were guessing, but exploring depicting events based on probabilistic evidence. Moreover, the risks associated with covert operations and of counter- intelligence search information to act with a high degree of secrecy and redundancy, which imposes limits to its effectiveness and transparency. The intelligence activity have proved decisive at particular moments in war and peace, but ultimately governments serve up to her to reduce uncertainty in decision making in foreign policy and defense, in a systematic way to ensure national security and finally, get the best advantage in its international relations. Despite its undoubted need, which is why the States still today maintain such a body in its public structures, the information did not always have the place they deserved in the context of strategic thinking. Even if its useful, intelligence services are often regarded with suspicion, this is due largely to its failures and its handling capacity. This explain, why states ruled by democratic regimes establish control mechanisms. Still, this should be seen as the exception and not the rule, then nothing has nipped in the deepening of its institutionalization in spite of the strategic environment of the post-Cold War new challenges. KEYWORDS Intelligence Services, strategic surprise, failures, limits, control, legality, effectiveness, transparency, secrecy, democracy, ethics, international law. iii INDÍCE AGRADECIMENTOS .................................................................................................................. i RESUMO ..................................................................................................................................... ii ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................ iii INDÍCE ....................................................................................................................................... iv LISTA DE TABELAS…………………………………………………………………….……vi LISTA DE FIGURAS ................................................................................................................ vii LISTA DE ACRÓNIMOS E ABREVIATURAS ..................................................................... viii INTRODUÇÃO .......................................................................................................................... 1 1 OS FUNDAMENTOS TEÓRICOS DAS INFORMAÇÕES .......................................... 6 1.1 Origens, Evolução e Institucionalização ....................................................................... 6 1.2 Estudos das Informações e Teoria das Relações Internacionais.................................... 8 1.2.1 Neo-Liberalismo versus Neo-Realismo: O Debate Renovado ............................... 8 1.2.2 Informações: A Procura de uma Referência Teórica ........................................... 15 1.3 O conceito de Informações Estratégicas ...................................................................... 17 1.4 Das Funções ................................................................................................................. 18 1.4.1 A Produção ........................................................................................................... 18 1.4.2 Contra-Informações .............................................................................................. 25 1.4.3 Operações Cobertas .............................................................................................. 27 2 O PROBLEMA DA SURPRESA ESTRATÉGICA ...................................................... 28 2.1 Enquadramento Conceptual ......................................................................................... 28 2.2 A Falha como Fenómeno Inevitável: A Abordagem Teórica...................................... 30 2.3 A Falha Centrada nos SI .............................................................................................. 32 2.3.1 Ao Nível da Pesquisa ......................................................................................... 333 2.3.2 Ao Nível da Análise ............................................................................................. 36 2.3.3 Falha na Partilha de Informação........................................................................... 40 2.4 A Falha Centrada na Relação entre SI e Decisores ..................................................... 42 2.5 A Falha Centrada nos Decisores .................................................................................. 47 2.6 A Falha como Sucesso do Adversário ......................................................................... 49 2.7 As Soluções Propostas ................................................................................................. 52 3 ESTUDO DE CASOS ...................................................................................................... 57 3.1 Estudo de Caso I - O Ataque Terrorista de 11SET...................................................... 57 3.1.1 Ao Nível dos SI .................................................................................................... 58 3.1.2 Ao Nível dos Decisores ........................................................................................ 62 3.1.3 Ao Nível do Adversário ....................................................................................... 63 3.2 Estudo de Caso II – O Caso da Inexistência de ADM no Iraque ................................ 64 3.2.1 Ao Nível dos SI .................................................................................................... 66 3.2.2 Ao Nível dos Decisores ........................................................................................ 70 3.2.3 Ao Nível do
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