The Population Bomb, Food Production, and Food Prices: an Optimistic Perspective

The population bomb, food production, and food prices: An optimistic perspective

David Lam, University of Michigan

IUSSP Webinar on Population, Food and the Environment April 9, 2021 How the World Survived the Population Bomb Lessons from 50 Years of Extraordinary Demographic History

David Lam, University of Michigan Population Association of America Presidential Address April 1, 2011 Key points of my PAA address • The world hit 7 billion population in 2011, up from 3 billion people in 1960 • The world’s population growth rate peaked around 1965 at about 2.1% per year • This was unprecedented population growth that will never be seen again • How did the world do in three areas of concern? – Would we be able to feed everyone? – Would we run out of resources? – Would poverty increase? “The world, especially the developing world, is rapidly running out of food…. In fact, the battle to feed humanity is already lost, in the sense that we will not be able to prevent large-scale famines in the next decade or so.” - Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb, 1968 350 World Food Production 300 1961-2009 313 (1961=100) 250 Total Food ProductionPopulation 220 200 150 Per Capita Food Production 141 100 Source: Food and Agriculture Organization 50 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 400 India Food Production 350 1961-2009 361 300 (1961=100) 262 250 Total Food ProductionPopulation 200 150 Per Capita Food Production 137 100

50 Food and Agriculture Organization 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 400 Sub-Saharan Africa 359 350 Food Production 1961-2009 1961=100 335 300 Population 250

200 Total Food Production 150 100 93 Per Capita Food Production 50 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 100 Percent in Poverty, 1981-2005 Low and Middle Income Countries 80 (in 2005 US dollars)

60 52% < $1.25 per day 40

20 25%

World Bank estimates 0 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 100 Percent in Poverty, 1981-2005 80 <$1.25 per day

60 Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia 50,9 40 40,3 East Asia 20 Latin America 16,8 8,2 0 World Bank estimates 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 “If you are prepared to pay me now the current market price for $1,000 worth of any mineral you name, I will agree to pay you the market price of the same amount of that raw material on any future date you now specify.”

Julian Simon, 1981 The Ultimate Resource Julian Simon’s bet with Paul Ehrlich

Total inflation- adjusted cost fell from $1000 in 1980 to $618 in 1990 300 Real prices of metals1960-2010 (1980=100) 250 Simon-Ehrlich Nickel 200 bet

150 Copper 100 Chromium

50 Tungsten Tin 0 Source: USGS 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 200 Real commodity prices 1960-2010 (1980=100)

150 Food

Non-Energy 100

0 Source: World Bank 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 400 Food Price Index (2000=100) 350 January 300 2011 243 250 200 150 100 50 0 Source: World Bank 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 To be continued after we hear from Stan Becker and hear the results of the wager … Population group chosen by Stan to receive David’s $194 donation Population Media Center

Mission: “To use entertainment-education and mass media to promote social and cultural change by addressing the interconnected issues of the full rights of women and girls, population, and the environment. Our goals are to empower people to live healthier and more prosperous lives and to stabilize global population at a level at which people can live sustainably with the world’s renewable resources.” www.populationmedia.org What has happened since 2011? • World population is up to 7.85 billion, the addition of another 850 million people • The world’s population growth rate has dropped to about 1% per year • Here are updates on: – Food production – Poverty – Food prices 400 World Food Production 350 1961-2018 361 (1961=100) 300 250 Population 247 Total Food Production 200 150 Per Capita Food Production146 100 Food and Agriculture Organization - 2021 50 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 500 India Food Production 482 450 1961-2018 400 (1961=100) 350 300 Population 294 250 Total Food Production 200 150 164 Per Capita Food Production 100 Food and Agriculture Organization - 2021 50 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 500 Africa Food Production 498 450 1961-2018 440 400 (1961=100) 350 300 Population 250 Total Food Production 200 150 100 Per Capita Food Production 113 Food and Agriculture Organization - 2021 50 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 60 Percent in Poverty, 1981-2018 50 Low and Middle Income Countries 42.5% <$1.90 per day per person 40 30 20 10 9.2% 0 World Bank estimates 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 100 Percent in Poverty by Region, 1981-2018 <$1.90 per day 80.2% 80

60 57.1% 55.7% Sub-Saharan Africa 40 40,2% South Asia 20 15.2% East Asia 1.2% 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 World Bank estimates 125 FAO Food Price Index (2011=100)

100

50 Source: FAO 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Key points • Food production continues to grow faster than population • Poverty continues to fall • Many reasons for optimism that we can feed another 3 billion people, keep food affordable, and continue reducing poverty • Should we be worried about the future? • YES! • Economists are as worried as anyone about climate change • Markets create good incentives to produce more food. They do not give good incentives to produce fewer greenhouse gasses. • Poverty reduction is still very uneven around the world, with Africa facing continued challenges.