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República Oriental Del Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation República Oriental del Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation Mrs. Azucena Arbeleche Minister of Economy and Finance Americas Society/Council of the Americas July 10th, 2020 Timeline of key recent political and economic developments in Uruguay during 2020 • March 1st : the new President Lacalle Pou takes office for a 5-year term, leading a five-party political coalition with majority in Congress. • March 11th: Presidential decree introduces fiscal austerity measures, including expenditure cuts across Ministries. • March 13th: first cases of COVID-19 reported in Uruguay; the Government declares sanitary emergency and launches swift policy response. • April 16th: first Monetary Policy Committee of the new Central Bank Board, announcing enhancements to the monetary policy framework and communication strategy. • May 15th: Finnish company UPM and the Government signed an MoU confirming commitment to ongoing construction of the pulp mill. • July 8th: Congress approves a bill that includes key structural reforms, including a new fiscal rule, changes to the governance of state-owned enterprises and a roadmap for pension reform. 2 Government’s strategy for virus containment after Covid-19 onset in Uruguay • To slow the spread of the virus, the Government did not enforce a countrywide lockdown or mandatory house confinement, to keep the engines of the economy running. Rather, it trusted citizens to adhere to voluntary social distancing and follow hygiene protocols, appealing to “individual freedom with social responsibility”. • In parallel, the Government took early and decisive action and sealed off land borders, closed air traffic except to chartered repatriation flights, suspended all public events and school classes, limited visits to nursing homes and encouraged citizens to stay home and telework. • Effective coordinated response between public and private sector and scientific community: o strengthening the health care system and facilities, and medical equipment o extensive randomized testing and community tracing in outbreak areas (border with Brazil, nursing homes) and in reopening sectors (e.g. construction, shopping centers). o developing a roadmap for re-opening the economy in consultation with scientific experts and private sector representatives. o innovative Covid-19-tracing technology (Coronavirus UY App), developed jointly with Google and Apple. 3 So far, Uruguay is holding up well in the face of adversity: contagion curves are flattening and death toll remains subdued… Spread of infection Covid 19-related deaths per million (As of July 8th, 2020) (As of July 8th, 2020) 360 Chile Peru Brazil 6 320 Brazil Peru Chile Mexico Ecuador 280 5 Colombia Argentina Mexico Ecuador 240 Panama 4 Bolivia 200 Panama 3 160 Bolivia Uruguay 120 2 Colombia Nº infected of Log scale (base 10) 80 1 Argentina 40 0 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 10-Mar 5-Apr 1-May 27-May 22-Jun 8-Jul Days since first confirmed case Uruguay Source: Johns Hopkins University; Our World in Data 4 …while ensuring an elevated number of daily tests and contact tracing protocols, enabling the country to react to potentially new bouts in the near future Total Covid-19 tests per 1,000 people (Figures relate to the closest date for which data is available, with a maximum of 10-days´ difference, as of July 8th, 2020) Uruguay Source: Our World in Data 5 Government and the Central Bank implemented policy measures to mitigate the economic and social fallout Fiscal policy measures Credit and liquidity support Protect household income and human capital through Preserve the financial health and credit quality of micro, direct income transfers, expanded unemployment and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to ensure health insurance, tax relief and deferral of mortgage functioning payment systems and supply chains between obligations. producers, suppliers, intermediaries and creditors. • Income transfers to vulnerable households to cover • Capitalization of the National Guarantee System food expenses and basic needs. (SIGa) for USD 500 million to leverage banking system loans to SMEs for up to USD 2.5 billion, and • Targeted temporary deferrals in payroll, VAT and other reducing the commission charged for guarantees. income taxes, and partial reduction of mortgage obligations in state-owned mortgage bank. • State-owned development bank (BROU) introduced more flexible loan repayment and financing terms. • Expanded social safety net for unemployment and health insurance: • The National Development Agency launched direct credit program for micro-entrepreneurs at subsidized o more flexible terms for unemployment claims, rates. allowing firms to place employees in part-time schedules. • The Central Bank deployed countercyclical monetary policy tools: o provision of unemployment benefit to self- employed workers. o reduced commercial banks´ local currency reserve requirements to inject additional liquidity o Extensions of sick leave insurance for private into the financial system. sector workers 65+ years old, thus providing sick leave compensation for all elderly formal workers in the o eased bank regulations, authorizing financial country. institutions to defer companies´ loan payments coming due for up to 180 days. 6 Banks’ strong capitalization and liquidity position supports credit measures of the loan guarantee system and the Central Bank; no spillovers from Argentina to financial system of Uruguay Solvency and liquidity of the banking system Banking system´s balance sheet exposure to Argentina (To the non-financial sector, % of total)1/ Nº of times the minimum Liquid assets Deposits regulatory capital in % of total* 50 2.0 40 41.5 40 30 1.9 20 35 10.7 10 1.8 0 2001 2020* 1.7 30 Loans 20 18.1 1.6 15 25 10 1.5 5 1.4 0 1.4 20 2001 2020* Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 1/ End-period; data for deposits includes only private non-financial sector (*) Liquid assets are those avaiilable within 30 days (*) As of April Source: Central Bank of Uruguay 7 Uruguay’s robust ESG features has underpinned steadfast response to the pandemic, yet there is no room for complacency ESG-adjusted EMBI benchmark (Country weights for 74 countries, in %; as of June 30th, 2020) • Trustworthiness of institutions: Very high Uruguay public compliance with voluntary quarantine and adherence to social distancing measures. Strong 5 democratic tradition meant citizens trusted public officials´ guidance and health recommendations. 4 • Socially stable country with relatively low inequality, low informality and a broad social insurance net: Efficient work of automatic stabilizers provide income and healthcare 3 support, allowing Uruguayans to act on their commitment to voluntary distancing with no civil unrest─ aided by the country´s low urban population density. 2 • Fiscal transparency and accountability and mature political system: Congress created by 1 Law the “COVID-19 Solidarity Fund” (voted unanimously by all parties), to be managed by the Executive branch. The Fund clearly earmarks the resources and budgetary expenditures to address 0 the emergency, keeping tabs of the Covid-related Iraq Brazil Egypt expenditures and where and how the money is China Kenya Bolivia Ghana Gabon Russia Poland Nigeria Tunisia Croatia Zambia Belarus Georgia Namibia Senegal Hungary Malaysia Romania Lithuania Colombia Suriname Honduras Indonesia spent. Philippines Costa Rica Guatemala Uzbekistan Kazakhstan Saudi Arabia Mozambique Cote D'Ivoire Uruguay P.New Guinea Dominican Rep. Source: J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Disclaimer: “Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The Index is used with permission. The Index may not be copied, used, or distributed without J.P. Morgan’s prior written approval. Copyright 2020, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.” 8 Uruguay remains a bastion of institutional and political stability in Latin America Strongest political stability and full democracy 1/ 2/ Highest adherence to the rule of law 3/ 100 “Full Democracies” 0.8 80 0.6 60 0.4 40 20 0.2 0 0 URU CHL PAN ARG ECU PRY BOL PER BRA MEX COL URY CHL ARG PAN BRA COL PER ECU MEX BOL Lowest civil unrest 4/ Lowest corruption perception 5/ 10 80 8 60 6 40 4 20 2 0 0 CHL MEX COL PRY ECU PER BRA ARG PAN URY PAR MEX BOL BRA PAN PER COL ECU ARG CHL URY Sources: 1/ Worldwide Governance Indicators, World Bank (2019); 2/ The Economist Intelligence Unit (2020); 3/ World Justice Project (2020); 4/ Verisk Maplecroft (first quarter of 2020); Transparency International (2020) 9 Low and declining virus incidence has allowed for faster renormalization of business and social activities Leading indicators suggest that economic downdraft may have bottomed-out, and a gradual recovery is underway: Electricity demand per day Fuel demand per day (YoY change, in %) (Rolling 7-day, YoY change, in %) First Covid-19 cases 30 confirmed on March 13 40 First Covid-19 cases confirmed on March 13 20 20 10 0 0 -20 -10 -40 -20 -60 -30 -80 1-Mar 20-Mar 8-Apr 27-Apr 16-May 4-Jun 23-Jun 8-Jul 1-Mar 19-Mar 6-Apr 24-Apr 12-May 30-May 17-Jun 4-Jul Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance 10 Challenges before Covid-19 outbreak: decelerating economy, persistent fiscal deterioration and increasing debt burden Real GDP Real gross fixed capital investment (Annual change, in %) (Annual change, in %) 8 30 6 20 4 10 2 0.2 0 0 -10 -2 -1.4 -20 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020Q1* 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020Q1* (*) YoY (*) YoY Central Government fiscal balance 1/ Central Government debt (In %
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