Heretaunga Plains Urban Development Study Phase 2 Technical Analysis Demographic and Economic Growth Outlook 2015-2045 October 2009 Report Prepared by Sean Bevin, Economic Analyst Economic Solutions Ltd, Napier Email:
[email protected] For Napier City Council/ Hastings District Council/ Hawkes Bay Regional Council Contents Page 1. Introduction 1 2. Methodology 1 3. Population Growth Outlook 3 4. Household Growth Outlook 13 5. Economic and Employment Outlook 2015-2045 19 6. Land Uptake 26 1.0 Introduction 1.1 This report provides an analysis of the long-term demographic and economic „environment‟ expected to prevail in the Heretaunga Plains area over the forecast period 2015-2045. 1.2 The report is one of a number of specialist studies that have been jointly commissioned by the Napier City, Hastings District and Hawkes Bay Regional Councils, as part of the Phase 2 research process associated with the Heretaunga Plains urban development study. 1.3 The specific matters that were requested to be addressed by the report are as follows: i) The long-term demographic, household, economic and employment growth outlook for the Napier-Hastings area. ii) The key Central Government policy, social, economic, business, infrastructural and other factors considered most likely to influence the long-term socio-economic outlook for Napier- Hastings. iii) The assessed impact of the forecast growth outlook for future land uptake/demand in the area. Item ii) above is incorporated within the analysis in Item i), whilst Item iii) is considered separately. 2.0 Methodology 2.1 The main points to note in terms of the broad approach taken to the analysis in relation to the matters identified in Section 1.3 above, are as follows: 2.1.1 In the main, the study catchment (hereafter referred to in the report as the „study area‟) used for the analysis comprises the Heretaunga Plains component of the combined Napier-Hastings Local Government districts.