Pupil Numbers from the New Village of Cotford St Luke
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
PUPIL NUMBERS AT COTFORD ST LUKE Note created July 2004 and updated July 2008; Appendix A updated April 2013. BACKGROUND At the request of Operational Planning Group a study was undertaken by Information & Research Unit in July 2004 into the yield of pupils from the new housing development at Cotford St Luke. This was updated in July 2005 to confirm the pupil numbers from the same houses one year later, with a further update in July 2008 to include data from the 2006-08 School Census returns. In 2004 with housing development still taking place at Cotford St Luke the initial study was restricted to a selection of areas where development was complete. A sample of 512 delivery points (as recorded by the Royal Mail) was identified from which the post- codes could be identified and from there pupils traced. It does not cover all parts of Cotford St Luke, therefore - a list of the addresses covered in the study is shown in Appendix B. The majority of the areas covered were family houses although there are some starter homes in the survey. The subsequent updated analysis for the January 2005 to 2008 School Census is based on the same set of 512 delivery points even though there has been further expansion of the village in the meantime. SCHOOL PROVISION Since 2004, at secondary level, over 70% of pupils from Cotford St Luke have attended the local school, Kingsmead Community School in Wiveliscombe. This figure has been fairly consistent in the period 2004-2008, but at primary school level Cotford St Luke Primary School was opened in September 2003 when development had been underway for some time. Prior to the opening of the new school there were quite clearly many pupils who became established at other schools particularly Bishops Lydeard and Oake & Bradford primaries. As numbers of pupils have built-up at the new school the proportion of primary aged pupils resident in Cotford St Luke that attend the village school has increased from 50% in 2004 to 74% in 2008. It is likely that the relatively high proportion of pupils at other schools in 2004 may not have been as significant if the school had been opened at an earlier point in the development of the village. The village is located within easy commuting distance of Taunton enabling a number of pupils resident at Cotford St Luke to attend either primary or secondary school in the Taunton area. FINDINGS All pupil data relates to the numbers on roll at January School Census as returned to the DfES/DCSF. The figures relate to the number of pupils with a home post-code in the area being studied. A table setting out the School Census data for pupils who are recorded as living in Cotford St Luke since 2004 is shown in Appendix A. It should not be implied that they are new to the County – some will have transferred from elsewhere in the locality, but their attendance at a local school is confirmed by their presence in the annual School Census. Pupils attending independent or non-Somerset LA schools are not included. CONCLUSIONS From the data in Appendix A the following points emerge: • The number of school aged children has increased significantly over the period 2004-2008, even though the number of houses has remained un-changed. This is consistent with the observed trend in the school number on roll where larger year groups have been entering the primary school at reception. This serves as a reminder that not all of the increase in pupil numbers arising from a new development occurs as a result of immediate migration – there is a further impact when migrants of pre-school age, and of children born to families who move into the new houses, enter reach school age. • The overall number of pupils per year group per 100 houses at Cotford St Luke at primary level has consistently been higher than the average for the County (2008: Cotford St Luke 4.85, County* 2.69). At secondary level in 2004 the figure was lower (Cotford St Luke 2.38, County* 2.55), but by 2008 this trend has changed so that the secondary figure was also well above the County average at 3.67. This probably supports anecdotal evidence that parents are less likely to move children when they are established at secondary school than when they are of primary school age. *The County level figures relate to the average occupancy of all dwellings at the time of the 2001 Census and not specifically to new developments. It is expected that there will be peaks and dips in the occupancy over a period of time. • The higher proportion of primary aged children currently seen in the area is probably a reflection that more families need to trade-up to a larger house to accommodate a family when children are of the primary and pre-school age. It must be expected that these pupils will eventually work their way into the secondary sector. • It is clear that the yield of primary aged pupils is significantly higher than average for all houses across the County: a sign that young families are attracted to new developments in a well laid out environment. The yield calculation in the primary sector for 2008 has increased over the years to stand at 4.85 pupils per year group per 100 dwellings. Based on this data, for the purpose of planning primary school places it is recommend that calculations are based on an occupancy rate of 4.8 pupils per year group per 100 new dwellings (based on a general mix of dwellings in the development). This figure is set to cover the initial peak as is evident at Cotford St Luke. In the longer term it would be expected that the yield of pupils would return to nearer the level County occupancy rate. • On the evidence of Cotford St Luke there will be some gains at secondary level when an area is being developed but they are unlikely to be exceptional (when compared to the County rate of occupancy). In expectation that high yield from the primary sector would eventually feed into the secondary sector some years later it is recommended that the same yield factor per age group is used as in the primary sector, although provision for such gains will not be required until 10 or more years from the completion of the new dwellings. • The pattern of primary aged pupils attending schools other than the local school is probably a reflection of the fact that development of the school did not take place immediately on commencement of development of the housing. It clearly demonstrates that there is a need to accommodate pupils from the development even if it is not entirely in the local school. • Clearly every housing development is unique in terms of the area it serves; the type of dwellings; and its proximity to other communities and other schools. The data from Cotford St Luke shows that there are clear implications for the planning of school places from housing developments, although every area would need to be treated on its own merits. SOURCES & FURTHER INFORMATION: Full supporting data and an explanation of any of the above data is available from Performance Management & Information Team. The following have been used as a source of data and reference material: ‘Pupil Numbers and Housing Developments Apr 04’ – Information & Research Unit Pupil Level Annual Schools Census (PLASC)/School Census 2004 - 2008 Royal Mail post-code data-base https://www.royalmail.com/ Tony Verrier Information Officer Business Development Group Children & Young People's Directorate Somerset County Council (Tel 01823 355961) APPENDIX A: Pupil Numbers at Cotford St Luke - Summary Data Pupils in Years R to 11 only Analysis based on 512 dwellings Number of Pupils Year # Primary (Yrs R-6) Secondary (Yrs 7-11) Total (Yrs R-11) Cotford St Luke Pry/Kingsmead Sec 2004 70 52 122 2005 92 52 144 2006 114 61 175 2007 112 82 194 2008 128 79 207 2009 134 78 212 2010 144 95 239 2011 148 104 252 2012 141 99 240 2013 155 103 258 Other LA Primary/Secondary Schools 2004 69 9 78 2005 53 14 67 2006 50 23 73 2007 49 21 70 2008 46 15 61 2009 47 12 59 2010 46 8 54 2011 39 5 44 2012 37 8 45 2013 35 9 44 Total Pupils 2004 139 61 200 2005 145 66 211 2006 164 84 248 2007 161 103 264 2008 174 94 268 2009 181 90 271 2010 190 103 293 2011 187 109 296 2012 178 107 285 2013 190 112 302 Pupils per 100 dwellings 2004 27.15 11.91 39.06 2005 28.32 12.89 41.21 2006 32.03 16.41 48.44 2007 31.45 20.12 51.56 2008 33.98 18.36 52.34 2009 35.35 17.58 52.93 2010 37.11 20.12 57.23 2011 36.52 21.29 57.81 2012 34.77 20.90 55.66 2013 37.11 21.88 58.98 Pupils per 100 dwellings/year group 2004 3.88 2.38 3.26 2005 4.05 2.58 3.43 2006 4.58 3.28 4.04 2007 4.49 4.02 4.30 2008 4.85 3.67 4.36 2009 5.05 3.52 4.41 2010 5.30 4.02 4.77 2011 5.22 4.26 4.82 2012 4.97 4.18 4.64 2013 5.30 4.38 4.92 Notes: # Data is taken from the January School Census each year.