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Vol. 3 No. 3 - December 2016 VOL. 3 NO. 3 - DECEMBER 2016 Editors: Michael T. Kezirian, Ph.D. Joseph Pelton, Ph.D. Tommaso Sgobba Journal of Space Safety Engineering – Vol. 3 No. 3 - December 2016 JOURNAL of SPACE SAFETY ENGINEERING Volume 3 No. 3 – December 2016 EDITORS Michael T. Kezirian, Ph.D. Tommaso Sgobba Joseph Pelton, Ph.D. The Boeing Company European Space Agency (ret.) George Washington University (ret.) University of Southern California Senior Editor Senior Editor Editor-in-Chief EDITORIAL BOARD George W. S. Abbey Joe H. Engle Isabelle Rongier National Aeronautics and Space Administration (ret.) Maj Gen. USAF (ret.) Airbus Safran Launchers Sayavur Bakhtiyarov, Ph.D. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Kai-Uwe Schrogl, Ph.D. University of New Mexico Herve Gilibert European Space Agency Kenneth Cameron Airbus Space & Defense Zhumabek Zhantayev Science Applications International Corporation Jeffrey A. Hoffman, Ph.D. National Center of Space Researches and Luigi De Luca, Ph.D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Technologies (NCSRT)- Kazakhstan Politecnico di Milano Ernst Messerschmid, Ph.D. University of Stuttgart (ret.) FIELD EDITORS William Ailor, Ph.D. Gary Johnson Erwin Mooij, Ph.D. The Aerospace Corporation Science Application International Corporation Delft University of Technology Christophe Bonnal Barbara Kanki John D. Olivas, PhD, PE Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales National Aeronautics and Space Administration (ret.) University of Texas El Paso Jonathan B. Clark, M.D., M.P.H Bruno Lazare Nobuo Takeuchi Baylor College of Medicine Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency Victor Chang Carine Leveau Brian Weeden Canadian Space Agency Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales Secure World Foundation Paul J. Coleman, Jr., Ph.D. Tobias Lips Paul D. Wilde, Ph.D., P.E. University of California at Los Angeles (Emeritus) Hypersonic Technology Goettingen Federal Aviation Administration Natalie Costedoat Michael Lutomski Uwe Wirt Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales Space Exploration Technologies German Aerospace Center (DLR) MANAGING EDITOR Arif Göktuğ Karacalıoğlu, International Space University AIMS and SCOPE The Journal of Space Safety Engineering (JSSE) provides an authoritative source of information in the field of space safety design, research and develop- ment. It serves applied scientists, engineers, policy makers and safety advocates with a platform to develop, promote and coordinate the science, technol- ogy and practice of space safety. JSSE seeks to establish channels of communication between industry, academy and government in the field of space safety and sustainability. MAIN JSSE TOPICS • Safety by design • Human factors and performance • Space Situational Awareness • Safety on long duration missions • Safety critical software design • Space traffic control • Launch and re-entry safety • Safety risk assessment • Space traffic and air traffic interfaces • Space hazards (debris, NEO objects) • Safety risk management • Space materials safety • Space weather and radiation • Organizational culture and safety • Safe & Rescue • Environmental impacts • Regulations and standards for safety • Safety lessons learned • Nuclear safety for space systems • Space-based safety critical systems Publication information: The Journal of Space Safety Engineering (ISSN Pending) is a quarterly publication of the International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety (IAASS). You can read about IAASS mission, goals, organization, membership and activities at: http://iaass.space-safety. org/. The JSSE is published using an open access publication model, meaning that all interested readers are able to freely access the journal online without the need for a subscription, and authors are not charged. Authors inquiries: For inquiries relating to the submission of articles please contact the Editor-in-Chief at: [email protected]. For all information about the journal, please visit the journal web page http://iaass.space-safety.org/publications/journal/. Authors instructions on preparation and submittal at: http://iaass.space-safety.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/24/2013/07/JSSE-authors_instructions.pdf. Advertising information: if you are interested in advertising or other commercial opportunities please e-mail [email protected] and your inquiry will be passed to the correct person who will respond to you within 48 hours. Copyright and photocopying: Authors retain the copyright of their work. The IAASS maintains the copyright of the Journal as a whole. Single photocopies or electronic scans of single articles may be made for personal use as allowed by national copyright laws. Authors or IAASS permission and the payment of a fee is required for all other photocopying, including multiple or systematic copying, copying for advertising purposes, resale, and all forms of document delivery. For information on how to seek permission please contact the Editor-in-Chief at [email protected]. Notice: No responsibility is assumed by the Publisher IAASS and by Editors and Editorial Board for any injury and/or damage to persons or property from any use or operation of any methods, products, instructions or ideas contained in the journal. Although all advertising material is expected to conform to ethical professional conduct of IAASS, inclusion in this publication does not represent an endorsement of the quality or value of such product or service. Credits: Kristhian Mason, IAASS graphic designer, for graphic work, layout and paginations. Cover picture: Drem Chaser, Sierra Nevada Corporation/ NASA KSC Media Archive International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety Journal of Space Safety Engineering – Vol. 3 No. 3 - December 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS EDITORIAL A NEW SPACE SAFETY MANDATE FOR THE WORLD’S SPACE AGENCIES ......................102 Joseph N. Pelton SAFETY CHARACTERISTICS IN SYSTEM APPLICATION SOFTWARE FOR HUMAN RATED EXPLORATION MISSIONS .....................................................................................104 Edward J. Mango FAST AND FLEXIBLE SPACE DEBRIS RISK ASSESSMENT FOR SATELLITES ..................111 Max Gulde, Scott Kempf, Frank Schäfer GLOBAL COSMIC RISK ASSESSMENT STUDY (COSRAS) BY THE IAASS .......................114 Joseph N. Pelton THE UNCONTROLLED REENTRY OF PROGRESS-M 27M .............................................117 Carmen Pardini, Luciano Anselmo IMPROVED RANGE SAFETY METHODOLOGIES FOR LONG-DURATION HEAVY-LIFT BALLOON MISSIONS OVER POPULATED REGIONS ....................................................127 George M. Lloyd, Kevin Benn, Jerry Haber, Danielle Franklin DEVELOP GLOBAL SAFETY SYNERGIES FOR LONG-RANGE HUMAN SPACE EXPLORATION, WITH FOCUS ON LAUNCH SYSTEMS .................................................136 Aline Decadi OBITUARY BECOMING JOHN GLENN IN THE WORDS OF JOHN GLENN ........................................145 101 International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety Journal of Space Safety Engineering – Vol. 3 No. 3 - December 2016 EDITORIAL A NEW SPACE SAFETY MANDATE FOR THE WORLD’S SPACE AGENCIES Joseph N. Pelton Founder of the Arthur C. Clarke Foundation - Email: [email protected] “The dinosaurs became extinct because they didn't pulses (EMPs). We also have a growing problem with have a space program. And if we become extinct be- orbital space debris — particularly in low earth orbit and cause we don't have a space program, it'll serve us polar orbits. If the worst should happen billions of people right!” — not millions, but billions — could be at risk. As global Larry Niven, Sci-Fi Writer of Note population expands from 7.5 billion to perhaps 10 to 12 billion people concentrated in cities as we become 75% The World’s space agencies have given a wide range urban our vulnerability grows. A study by Lloyds of Lon- of benefits to the global society in the past half century. don suggested that a massive coronal mass ejection from We now have a much better understanding the nature of the Sun similar to the Carrington Event of 1859 that set the cosmos and the structure of galaxies and the world’s telegraph offices on fire and brought the Northern Lights place in the Universe. The various space agencies have down to Cuba and Hawaii might trigger on the other of also played a leading role in the development of com- $3 trillion dollars in losses and who knows how many munications, navigations, remote sensing, and weather would die. This is a problem that we — and especially satellites. Our various satellites now make the skies safer the space agencies — need to take seriously. for aircraft takeoff and landing, our globe can share news, sports and major events instantly — life via satellite. On Oct. 13, 2016 President Obama issued a key new Weather and climate change monitoring satellites help us Executive Order to coordinate efforts within the U.S. monitor hurricanes and monsoons and save thousands of Government among the Department of Defense (DOD), live — if not billions of lives in the future. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), National Sci- ence Foundation (NSF) and NASA to protect and re- The question is whether the Space Agencies around the spond to a massive solar coronal mass ejection (CME) world need to play a bigger and more central role in mak- as well as to address dangers associated with changes to ing our world safer from cosmic threats? Sci-Fi writer the Earth’s magnetosphere. This is a key step forward in Larry Niven famous quote from decades ago is not only efforts to respond to catastrophic space weather threats. relevant
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