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Conserving Freshwater and Coastal Resources in a Changing Climate

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Conserving Freshwater and Coastal Resources in a Changing Climate Conserving Freshwater and Coastal Resources in a Changing Climate A Report Prepared for The Nature Conservancy By Elizabeth Grubin, Abigail Hardy, Regina Lyons, Amelia Schmale, Takeo Sugii Urban and Environmental Policy and Planning Program, Tufts University Edited by Mark P. Smith and Lisa Hayden, The Nature Conservancy January, 2009 Acknowledgements e thank Mark P. Smith (The Nature Conservancy) for his guidance and support throughout this W project, as well as his comments on review drafts of this report. We would also like to thank Chris Zganjar (The Nature Conservancy), Rusty Russell (Tufts University), and Becky Saggese (Tufts University) for their guidance and comments on review drafts of this report. In addition we thank Barbara M. Parmenter, (Tufts University) Amanda Fencl (Tufts University), Molly Mead (Tufts University), Justin Hollander (Tufts University), Christopher Mancini (Tufts University), Mary Zagar (Tufts University), David Garrett (DG Communications), and the Union of Concerned Scientists for their contributions to this report. Finally, we would like to thank all interviewees for their generous and thoughtful contributions to this report. Cover photos: Harold E. Malda (Top left and right), Stephen G Make (Top center), Alan W. Eckert Middle) i Conserving Freshwater and Coastal Resources in a Changing Climate Table of Contents Acknowledgements . i Figures, Tables, and Maps . iii Executive Summary . iv Chapter 1: Introduction . 1 Chapter 2: Climate Change Overview . 3 Chapter 3: Responses of Freshwater and Coastal Ecosystems to Climate Change. 7 Chapter 4: Adaptation of Aquatic Ecosystems to Climate Change. 26 Chapter 5: Recommendations and Conclusions. 41 Appendix A: Coastal Vulnerability Index. 49 Appendix B: References. 53 Conserving Freshwater and Coastal Resources in a Changing Climate ii Figures Figure 1. Model simulated sea level rise from 1900-2100. 4 Figure 2. Projected changes in duration of low streamflow in summer and fall months. 5 Figure 3. Lake Stratification and the Development of “Dead Zones“ . 16 Figure 4. Satellite image of New York captured from Landsat. 27 Figure 5. Image of stormwater management model. 29 Tables Table 1. Rivers and Streams: Impacts of Climate Change. 11 Table 2. Freshwater Wetlands: Impacts of Climate Change. 14 Table 3. Lakes: Impacts of Climate Change. 18 Table 4. Saltwater Wetlands: Impacts of Climate Change. 22 Table 5. Coastal Regions: Impacts of Climate Change . 25 Table 6. Technology Tools. 31 Table 7. Adaptation Techniques- Accommodation- Resource Management Measures. 38 Table 8. Adaptation Techniques- Accommodation- Land Use Conservation Measures. 39 Table 9. Adaptation Techniques- Protection and Retreat . 40 Table 10. Recommendations: River and Stream Ecosystems. 44 Table 11. Recommendations: Freshwater Wetland Ecosystems . 45 Table 12. Recommendations: Lake Ecosystems. 46 Table 13. Recommendations: Saltwater Wetland Ecosystems. 47 Table 14. Recommendations: Coastal Region Ecosystems . 48 Maps Map 1. Regional Coastal Vulnerability . 26 Map 2. Relative Sea Level Rise. 50 Map 3. Erosion and Acfetion. 51 Map 4. Coastal Slope. 52 iii Conserving Freshwater and Coastal Resources in a Changing Climate Executive Summary limate change presents significant challenges to • A rise in winter temperatures of 6° - 14°F (3° - 8°C) and both human and natural communities. A variety a rise in summer temperatures of 11° - 16°F (6° - 9°C) in Cof climate-driven changes have already been ob- the Great Lakes region. served, such as an increase of average global air and ocean temperatures and an increase in the occurrence • An increase in sea surface temperature of 5° - 8°F and intensity of extreme weather events. These impacts (2.2°- 4.4°C) by the end of the century. are projected to continue into the future. While a broad spectrum of interests, stakeholders and governments have engaged in international negotia- tions and action plans to reduce the sources of green- house gases that contribute to climate change, signifi- cant effort remains before this global phenomenon is controlled and mitigated. The persistence of previously emitted gases and uncertainties about future human re- sponses in reducing emissions means we will continue to feel the effects of climate change for decades and most likely, centuries. It is important for organizations, Photography by Mark Godfrey agencies, and individuals working on environmental conservation to understand the probable ecological and • Annual precipitation in the Northeast is anticipated societal effects of climate change and to identify and to increase by 10% (about 4 inches) by 15% (about 6 implement appropriate policies to plan for and adapt to inches) in the mid-Atlantic, and by 10-20% (about 3 to 6 climate changes and deploy on-the-ground conservation inches) in the Great Lakes region. strategies that anticipate these changes. • An increase in the frequency of droughts. Short-term The Changing Climate droughts that currently occur in the Northeast once ev- Based on a range of scenarios for anthropogenic ery 2 to 3 years are likely to occur on a yearly basis by emissions of greenhouse gases, The eastern United the end of the century. States (defined for this report as the mid-Atlantic, New England and Great Lakes regions) is expected to see the • An increase in the duration of the Northeast’s low following range of impacts by the end of the century: flow period for rivers and streams. Low flow may ar- rive a week earlier and extend several weeks longer into • A rise in annual average temperatures for the Northeast the fall. Predictions of stream flow changes in the Mid- of 3.5° - 12.5°F (1.9° - 6.9°C) and 4.9°- 9.5°F (2.7°- 5.3° C) Atlantic region are less certain, flow could decrease by in the Mid-Atlantic, with most of the warming occur- 4% or increase by 27%. ring in winter months. Conserving Freshwater and Coastal Resources in a Changing Climate iv • A sea-level rise of 2.5 - 13 inches by mid-century and allow ecosystems to be resilient to and/or adapt to these 4 - 33 inches by the end of the century. changes. The most significant effects of climate change on Effects of Climate Change on Aquatic Ecosystems aquatic ecosystems are predicted to be the following: The changing climate will have varying effects on differ- ent freshwater and coastal systems. These changes include: An increase in water temperature is predicted to negatively affect plants and other aquatic species River and Stream Ecosystems living in these ecosystems. Species that are mobile Suitable habitat for 57 species of cold-water fish has may be pushed further north in pursuit of cooler been projected to decline up to 36% in U.S. rivers if air waters while species which cannot migrate will be temperatures rise by 4°C. River and stream ecosystems forced to adapt or perish. In addition, as increased will likely have changes in low and high flows, increased water temperatures generally decrease water drought, flooding, and an increase in water tempera- oxygen levels, even those species which are not ture. This will likely cause isolation of nearby wetlands adversely affected by warmer water may be and a loss of habitat for wetland dependent fish. threatened as a result of a lack of oxygen. Freshwater Wetlands Changing weather patterns and altered water regimes Freshwater wetlands are diverse ecosystems that will be may threaten aquatic ecosystems in a number of vulnerable to a range of impacts from climate change. ways. An increase in high intensity storms may Bogs, which depend almost entirely on precipitation increase erosion of coastal beaches and wetlands for their water, are vulnerable to extended droughts. In and open more inland areas to storm effects. An addition, a decrease in the snow pack will yield a weaker increase in short term summer droughts may spring flood, threatening the wetlands and floodplains decrease freshwater levels, threatening species which depend on this seasonal inundation. Key wetland which depend on freshwater. These droughts may functions, like the assimilation of nutrients and stor- be compounded by a winter precipitation that falls age of sediment may also be affected by the changing more as rain than snow, threatening those hydrologic regimes associated with climate change. ecosystems which depend on the annual high water and floods driven by snow-melt. Lake Ecosystems Lake ecosystems may face altered dissolved oxygen char- An increase in sea-level rise will lead to the deteriora- acteristics that aquatic species depend on for survival. tion of saltwater wetlands along much of the coast Additionally, lake water temperatures may increase by throughout the Eastern Region. Numerous species up to 5.2°C, a condition expected to lead to a loss of hab- may be affected by this as they depend on these itat for cold and cool water fish in the Eastern Region. ecosystems for food, shelter, and as breeding The response of lake ecosystems to climate change will grounds. likely include loss of ice cover, increased stratification, shifting thermal regions, and lowered lake levels. Lower lake levels in the Great Lakes will change the hydrology of near-shore habitats including important Saltwater Wetlands fringing wetlands and marshes. These wetlands are Saltwater wetlands are fragile and ecologically pro- important breeding and stopover habitats for birds ductive ecosystems which can drown if sea levels rise and nursery areas for fish and other aquatic faster than the wetlands are able to build themselves organisms. up. Increased levels of salinity
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