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A Thesis Submitted to the Victoria University of Wellington in Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Physical Geography

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A Thesis Submitted to the Victoria University of Wellington in Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Physical Geography HAZARDOUS GEOMORPHIC PROCESSES IN THE EXTRATROPICAL ANDES WITH A FOCUS ON GLACIAL LAKE OUTBURST FLOODS By Pablo Iribarren Anacona A thesis submitted to the Victoria University of Wellington in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Physical Geography Victoria University of Wellington 2016 i Abstract This study examines hazardous processes and events originating from glacier and permafrost areas in the extratropical Andes (Andes of Chile and Argentina) in order to document their frequency, magnitude, dynamics and their geomorphic and societal impacts. Ice-avalanches and rock-falls from permafrost areas, lahars from ice-capped volcanoes and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have occurred in the extratropical Andes causing ~200 human deaths in the Twentieth Century. However, data about these events is scarce and has not been studied systematically. Thus, a better knowledge of glacier and permafrost hazards in the extratropical Andes is required to better prepare for threats emerging from a rapidly evolving cryosphere. I carried out a regional-scale review of hazardous processes and events originating in glacier and permafrost areas in the extratropical Andes. This review, developed by means of a bibliographic analysis and the interpretation of satellite images, shows that multi-phase mass movements involving glaciers and permafrost and lahars have caused damage to communities in the extratropical Andes. However, it is noted that GLOFs are one the most common and far reaching hazards and that GLOFs in this region include some of the most voluminous GLOFs in historical time on Earth. Furthermore, GLOF hazard is likely to increase in the future in response to glacier retreat and lake development. To gain insight into the dynamics of GLOFs I create a regional-scale inventory of glacier lakes and associated hazards in the Baker Basin, a 20500 km2 glaciated basin in the Chilean Patagonia. I also simulate and reconstruct moraine- and ice- dammed lake failures in the extratropical Andes using numerical and empirical models. More than 100 GLOFs have occurred in the extratropical Andes since the Eighteenth Century and at least 16 moraine-dammed lakes have produced GLOFs. In the extratropical Andes most of the failed moraine-dammed lakes were in contact with retreating glaciers and had moderate (> 8°) to steep (>15°) outlet slopes. Ice- dammed lakes also produced GLOFs in the extratropical Andes, damaging communities and highlighting the need for a better understanding of the GLOF dynamics and hazards. Thus, I reconstruct and model GLOFs that occurred in ii maritime western Patagonia (Engaño Valley) and the high-arid Andes (Manflas Valley) to characterise the GLOF dynamics in these contrasting environments. Hydraulic modelling and geomorphologic analysis shows that the Engaño River GLOF (46º S) behaved as a Newtonian flow and incorporated tree trunks, from the gently sloping and heavily-forested valley, which increased the GLOF damaging capacity. In contrast, the Manflas GLOF (28º S) descended from a steep valley behaving as a sediment-laden flow, which was capable of moving boulder-size rocks dozens of kilometres from the GLOF source. In both events lack of awareness of the GLOF hazard and a lack of territorial planning accentuated the GLOF damage. These GLOF reconstructions highlight both the difficulties in modelling sediment- laden flows over long distances, and the utility of empirical debris-flow models for regional-scale hazard analysis. This thesis synthesises and increases our knowledge about the distribution, frequency, magnitude and dynamics of hazardous processes that have occurred in glacier and permafrost areas in the extratropical Andes. This knowledge forms a basis for future assessments of glacier and permafrost related hazards in the Chilean and Argentinean Andes and helps inform strategies and policies to face hazardous geomorphologic and hydrological processes emerging from a rapidly evolving cryosphere. iii Acknowledgements My supervisors Andrew Mackintosh and Kevin Norton are greatly thanked for providing timely and constructive criticism which helped to improve this thesis. Their outstanding editorial skills helped to clarify ideas and both, patiently, introduced me to the craft of scientific writing. Both diligently helped me with paperwork when needed. I also wish to thank Andrew and Kevin for providing funds to cover publication costs and conference fees. Finally, I thank Andrew for inviting me to field work in New Zealand which were always a good opportunity to learn. Special thanks goes to my father who helped me to interview flood victims in Patagonia. I also wish to thank Hales López, my loyal field companion, who has been always willing to invest his time and resources in assiting me in the field. I thank Fernando Escobar and Simon Allen for providing feedback on the Manflas GLOF study. I also thank Becas Chile for funding my PhD studies. I would like to thank my wife Valeria for her constant support and energy which made our time in New Zealand "enjoyable" in every circumstance. I also thank my daughter Aitana for constantly distracting me from the thesis to do more exciting activities. The support and love of my parents María and Rodrigo, siblings Paz and Jorge and parents in law Mercedes and Humberto was always a good incentive to finish this work and go back home. Finally, I would like to thank my Latin friends in New Zealand; Daniela, Adrián and Nancy who constantly helped us in every possible way. Guillermo and Carlos are also thanked for inviting me to the Sunday football games which were always the highlight of the week. Carlos is also thanked for giving the opportunity to work with him and learn some painting skills. Fei and her familiy are thanked for their friendship. My office mates Alyssa, Tapuwa, Marie and Francesco are also thanked for the good times we shared. This thesis is dedicated to the memory of my grandparents Nora and Fermín. iv Table of contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................ iv Table of contents .................................................................................................................................... v List of figures ........................................................................................................................................ viii List of tables ............................................................................................................................................ x 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Glacier and permafrost related hazards in mountain environments ..................................... 1 1.2 Objectives of this thesis .......................................................................................................... 6 1.3 Thesis structure ....................................................................................................................... 7 1.4 Chapter's outline ..................................................................................................................... 8 1.5 References .............................................................................................................................. 9 2 Hazardous processes and events from glacier and permafrost areas: lessons from the Chilean and Argentinean Andes......................................................................................................................... 11 2.1 Abstract ................................................................................................................................. 11 2.2 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 11 2.3 Geographic setting ................................................................................................................ 15 2.4 Glacial lakes and outburst floods .......................................................................................... 16 2.4.1 Glacier-dammed lake outburst floods .......................................................................... 17 2.4.2 Moraine-dammed lake outburst floods ........................................................................ 26 2.5 Ice and rock-Ice avalanches .................................................................................................. 31 2.6 Glacio-volcanic interactions .................................................................................................. 36 2.7 Other processes and hazards related with glaciers and permafrost .................................... 40 2.8 Summary and Conclusions .................................................................................................... 43 2.8.1 Gaps in our knowledge and future research directions ................................................ 48 2.9 References ............................................................................................................................ 49 3 Moraine-dammed lake failures in Patagonia and assessment of outburst susceptibility in the Baker Basin ...........................................................................................................................................
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