Effective adaptation strategies for reducing natural disaster risks in the coastal region of Bangladesh

Akshoy Kumar Das

Degree Thesis for Bachelor of Natural Resources The Degree Programme in Sustainable Coastal Management Reseborg-2020 BACHELOR’S THESIS Author: Akshoy Kumar Das

Degree Programme: Sustainable Coastal Management

Supervisors: Ruslan Gunko

Title: Effective adaptation strategies for reducing natural disaster risks in the coastal region of Bangladesh

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Date: December 1, 2020 Number of pages:37 Appendices ______Summary

The coastal region of Bangladesh is facing natural disasters every year. These harsh events are constant companions for people in this area. Therefore, local communities must minimize the impacts of devastating natural disasters and adapt their livelihood to their effects. Adaptation strategies can help people mitigate risks, prepare inhabitants for upcoming events, teach them how to act before, during, and after events, coordinate responsible authorities, and increase overall resilience. There are two strategies that are playing a crucial role for society in coastal areas of Bangladesh: The Indigenous and Institutional strategies. This study aims to determine how effective they work on mitigating natural disaster risk and how their efficiency can be increased.

For this, I used a SWOT analysis approach and assessed existing strategies regarding their strength, weakness, opportunities, and threats. The evaluation shows the disputable capacity of strategies to mitigate natural disaster risk efficiently by a separate application. However, the Institutional adaptation strategy use researchers’ conclusions and organizational experience as a basis for its performance, thus, it has more advantages in the long run. At the same time, the Indigenous strategy demonstrates good preventing and immediate effects as its based-on community experience. Thus, my findings show that the integration and cooperation between both strategies should apply for mitigation the risk of natural disasters in the coastal areas of Bangladesh.

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Language: English Key words: Natural Disaster, Adaptation, Indigenous, Institutional, Strategy, Coastal region.

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Abbreviation

ASA= Association for Social Advancement

AUSAID= Australian Agency for International Development

BCCRF= Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund

BRAC= BRAC is an international development organization based in Bangladesh

CARE Bangladesh = Non-profit organization

EUAID= European Union Agency for International Development

NGO = Non-government organization

UDDIPAN = United Development Initiatives for Programmed Actions

UKAID= United Kingdom Agency for International Development

Contents 1.Introduction ...... 1 2.Background ...... 2 3. Objective of the study ...... 3 4.Methodology ...... 3 5.Types of disasters ...... 4 5.1 Tropical Cyclones ...... 4 5.2 Flood ...... 6 5.3 Soil salinization ...... 7 5.4 Sea level rise ...... 8 6. Impact of Disasters in the coastal region people of Bangladesh ...... 9 6.1 Impact on Population ...... 9 6.2 Impact on Agriculture and Fisheries ...... 10 6.2.1 Crops ...... 12 6.2.2 Livestock ...... 13 6.2.3 Fisheries ...... 13 6.3 Impact on Infrastructure ...... 14 6.4 Impact on Environment ...... 14 6.5 Impact on socio-economic system ...... 15 7. Adaptation strategies ...... 16 7.1 Indigenous adaptation strategies ...... 16 7.2 Institutional adaptation strategies ...... 17 8. Some Drawbacks in implementing of adaptation strategies...... 21 9. SWOT analysis ...... 22 9.1 SWOT analysis for Indigenous adaptation strategies ...... 24 9.2 SWOT analysis for Institutional adaptation strategies ...... 25 10. Conclusion ...... 26 References: ...... 28 1

1.Introduction A natural disaster is a nature-induced hazard that hampers people's normal lives and causes huge damage to crops and livestock (FAO, 2015). It has a direct impact on the socio- economic life of human beings. Natural disasters are events such as earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, soil salinization, and sea-level rise triggered by natural hazards (Vakis, 2006). The impact of natural disaster's severity is widespread on the community's resources. These impacts exceeding the affected community's ability to cope using its own resources (UNDRR, 2006). Natural disasters are not unusual incidents for human beings. However, natural disasters are not a problem of a particular territory, and they have a significant effect on the whole world every year and become borderless in their impacts (WMO, 2020).

According to UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction the world faced 7348 disasters in 20 years (2000 – 2019) affected 4,2 billion people, they took more than one million lives, and caused economical losses of 2,97 trillion USD. Moreover, the negative economic effect was four times higher for the poor nations (UNDRR,2020).

Different types of natural disasters occur in different territories and their categories, characteristics, and impacts are varied from region to region based on topography and climate (OXFAM, 2020). According to the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disaster (CRED) humanity is exposed to six types of disasters, which are divided into subtypes and sub-sub-types (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Classification of natural disasters (EM-DAT, 2009)

Thus, natural disasters are regarded as threats to human existence and safety in many nations. Bangladesh is a southeast Asian country, which has a predominantly agricultural economy, 2 and a rapidly increasing population is presently ranked as one of the most affected by natural disasters in country in the world (Mondal, 2010). Additionally, Bangladesh with its coastal area faces various kinds of natural disasters every year. Among them, cyclones, typhoon surges, floods, droughts, soil salinization, and sea-level rise cause great loss to human lives, economy, and environment (Shamsuddoha & Chowdhury, 2007)

However, the impact of climate change on Bangladesh is rapidly growing and caused poverty and migration processes inside the country leading to urbanization and increasing population density (Shamsuddoha et al.2007). Furthermore, the effect of natural disasters is speeding up these processes and escalating pressure on local coastal communes (Kusumasari et al.2010). Thus, disaster risk adaptation and mitigation strategies playing a vital role in the future of the country (UNISDR, 2012).

2.Background Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to natural disasters because of its geographical location, land features (mountains, hills, and plains), excessive rivers, monsoon climate, and coastal morphology (ADRC, 2013). It is located on the Bay of Bengal and this area is considered as the hotbed of the tropical cyclone. Moreover, the world's largest and most populated delta of the river Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna is located in Bangladesh. These rivers flow across Bangladesh to the Bay of Bengal. Therefore, the total landmass and the coastal zone are dominated by the three major river systems and the Bay of Bengal. There are 19 of total 64 districts located in the coastal area of Bangladesh:Jessore, Narail, Gopalganj, Shariatpur, Chandpur, Satkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat, Pirozpur, Jhalakati, Barguna, Barisal, Patuakhali, Bhola, Lakshmipur, Noakhali, Feni, Chittagong, and Cox's Bazar (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Coastal areas of Bangladesh (Source: Hasan, 2012) 3

The coastline of Bangladesh is 710 km long, mainly composed of inter faience of various ecological and economic systems that include mangrove forest, tidal flat, estuaries, seagrass, a peninsula, and rural and urban settlements, ports and about seventy islands, beaches, etc. Most of the people of the coastal region are poor and facing the consequences of climate change-driven hazards (Ahmad, 2019). Moreover, global warming is becoming the most concerning issue due to the impacts of it. Frequent natural disasters dreadfully affecting Bangladesh and mostly happening in the coastal zone (Shamsuddoha & Chowdhury, 2007)

Therefore, it is important and crucial for Bangladesh to have efficient natural disaster management to mitigate the damages of natural disasters by an effective prevention plan, evacuation plan, communication, and improved warning system.

3. Objective of the study The purpose of my studies is to highlight the frequent natural disasters and their impact on human health, agricultural, environmental, and socio-economical system in the coastal region of Bangladesh. Moreover, I’m focusing on the existing adaptation strategies that have been taken to minimize the natural disasters risks in the coastal region of Bangladesh by the governmental disaster risk management department. Furthermore, I’m focusing on finding answers to the following questions:

A. What are the natural disasters occurring in Bangladesh?

B. Do natural disasters have an impact on the life of coastal region people?

C. How effective are the adaptation strategies for reducing disaster risk?

4.Methodology This study mainly focuses on the coastal region of Bangladesh. For this thesis, I used secondary data related to climatic disaster risk management, reductions, and adaptation strategies in the coastal region in Bangladesh. Therefore the study is based on analysis of information from books, journals, scientific papers, reports published by the government ministries, international disasters risks and relief management organizations, international humanitarian organizations, and online news platforms related to climate changes, adaptation strategies, and disasters risk reduction in the coastal areas in Bangladesh. Further, I performed a SWOT analysis of the adaptation strategies. By analysing their strengths, 4 weakness, opportunities and threats I assessed how effective existing strategies are and made suggestions for improving their implementation in the coastal region of Bangladesh.

5.Types of disasters 5.1 Tropical Cyclones Tropical cyclones are a system of storms developed over the ocean accompanied by extremely strong winds and can cause a range of natural disasters (Trigo & Gimeno, 2009). It is generated in the ocean due to high-speed wind and air pressure difference (Emanuel, 2003). Storms caused by tropical cyclones, also popularly known as hurricanes or typhoons are among the most catastrophic events, and the most costly in their consequences of natural disasters on the Earth (WHO, w.y.). Because of humid and warm weather, Bangladesh and its coastal regions are suitable places for generating and hitting cyclones (Siddiki et al.2012). Cyclone hits in the coastal region normally on April-May or October-November.

Cyclones can lift the water as high as 3 to 12 meters, called storm surges, causing more destruction and deaths due to drowning ships or marine infrastructure. Besides, the seawater enters the low-line coastal areas causing soil erosion and decreasing soil fertility (IPCC, w.y.).

Figure 3. Cyclones in Bangladesh (Photo: Sajibur Rahman, 2019)

Natural resources are an important source for coastal people as their activities and livelihoods are mostly dependent on it. The two most common professions in the region are fisherman and farmer (Ahamed et al.2012). Due to frequent cyclones, their livelihood is affected and e.g. well-established farmers often lose everything: crops, livestock, and 5 equipment. Consequently, because of the lack capital and employment, they are forced to migrate to the cities from their disrupted farmlands. Even though they come to the cities, they do not get shelter, food, job. Thus, they face poverty and some of them engaged in crimes like robbery, drug dealing, and pickpocketing (Mallick, 2014).

Cyclones Fatality in Bangladesh Since 1965

400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0

Fatality in thousands in Fatality 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year

Figure 4. Fatality of major cyclones in Bangldesh from 1965 to 2020 (Source: MoDMR).

According to the graph (Figure 4), the deadliest and most destructive cyclones occurred in 1970 and 1991. However, in the following years, the death toll by natural disasters was constantly lower because of taking preventive measures, effective preparedness, and the modernization of natural disasters' warning system. The authorities could inform the people in advance and evacuate them from the estimated landfalling areas to the shelters.

Therefore, in May 2020, the cyclone Amphan landfall in Bangladesh and India caused 17 deaths in Bangladesh according to official reports. Moreover, UN estimated tangible impact: 10 million people in 19 districts were affected. Bangladesh authorities were able to evacuate 3 million people from the coastal region. Nevertheless, this process was very difficult due to the COVID-19 pandemic situation.

However, cyclones seriously affected Sundarbans (the world's largest mangrove forest) in the coastal region of Khulna. This forest, inscribed as a world heritage site by UNESCO, is the home for endangered Bengal tigers, as well as important for crocodiles, serpents, deer, and birds. After cyclone Sidr in 2007, UNESCO reported that 40 percent of the Sundarbans site has been seriously affected: a huge part of trees was twisted or broken, and a tangible number of mammals, reptiles, and birds were killed (UNESCO, 2007). 6

Thus, cyclones are not only caused deadly damage to human lives and properties, but they are bringing destructive impacts on natural environments, and it can lead to ecological catastrophe in the future (WHO, w.y.).

5.2 Flood A flood is a natural incident that occurs when an overflow of water submerges usually dry land. Floods are often caused by heavy rainfall, rapid snowmelt, or a storm surge from a cyclone in coastal areas (WHO, w.y.). Flooding is hazardous and the overflowing waters can damage and move for long distances objects of infrastructure: houses, bridges, trees, farms, and affect in the similar way animals and even people. Sometimes it can fully or partially destroy the whole city (NATGO, 2020). A flood occurs every year in Bangladesh due to the climate conditions and rainfall season (between June and mid-October) and surface conditions of the country (flat land, barely above the sea level) (Baten, et al.2018).

Figure 5. The percentage of area inundated in Bangladesh by peak floods over the time (Source: Shahid, 2012) As the graph shows (Figure 5), the most notable floods occurred in 1987, 1988, 1998, 2004, and 2008 in Bangladesh. In 1998 the people of Bangladesh faced the longest flood, which killed more than 3500, and destroyed agricultural and infrastructure sectors almost everywhere. Furthermore, in 2004 floods killed around 1000 people and caused more than 2 billion US dollars in economic losses which have been the worst in the ultimate four decades, affected more than half of the country (BWDB, w.y.).

In 2017, because of the heavy rainfall, a flood occurred across one-third of Bangladesh. According to the Bangladesh Ministry of disaster control and remedy (MoDMR), the floods affected five divisions, 31 districts, and around 7 million people (RELIEFWEB, 2017). 7

Every year the economic development in the rural part of Bangladesh is affected by floods. Because of floods people, lose their properties and livelihoods. The agricultural and food sector has been suffering and vulnerable to floods (Baten et al.2018). Almost half of the population in Bangladesh is employed in agriculture (total population 160 million) and approximately 64 % of the population lives in rural areas. In 2019, the share of total GDP of 12.68 percent relies on the agriculture sector (17.1% share in GDP in 2009). There is a gradual decline in the agricultural share in GDP. This trend can be explained by losses in lands, infrastructure, and living facilities, and as a consequence loss of people’s motivation mostly in the coastal region (STATISTA, 2019).

5.3 Soil salinization Soil salinization is the increased salinity of land due to a lower amount of rainfall, evaporation, and saline water inundation. It can be so extreme that the farmers are forced to abandon their land and can no longer grow crops (USDA, 1998). In Bangladesh and its coastal area, there is gradual soil salinization. It becomes very visible during the spring and mid-summer. During this season no rain is causing massive soil salinization. Yet, cyclones and groundwater irrigation causing soil salinization. The inundation of sea water caused by cyclones is affecting land every year. Thus, the fertility of the land continuously decreasing and the process of growing crops becoming more and more difficult (Rahman & Rahman, 2018). In coastal regions, the groundwater is using for drinking and irrigation for farms. Therefore, the groundwater level is gradually depleting, and water becomes less and less accessible. As a result, farmers haven’t enough water resources for irrigation, and land surface is not getting enough water. The snowball effect of irrational use of natural resources in combination with disaster impact leads to soil salinization. (USDA, 1998).

Figure 6. Soil salinization in the coastal region (SRDI) 8

The soil salinization problem is constantly rising and with years becoming issue for a larger area (Figure 6).

A total of 1.05 million hectares of land out of 2.88 million hectares in the Khulna and Barisal divisions are affected by different degrees of soil salinization within the coastal and offshore lands (SRDI, 2010). Therefore, soil salinization becomes one of the major constraints for agriculture production. The impact of disasters and poor management of water resources leads to soil salinization and gradual destruction of agricultural production. Additionally, soil salinization has huge impact on aquaculture due destructions of land for shrimp farming ( Hossain, et al.2013).

5.4 Sea level rise The increase in the level of the world ocean due to global warming is called sea level rise (NATGO, 2020). This issue is one of the most uproars and, easily visible consequences of climate change (Werner & Simmons, 2009). Due to global warming, the ice is melting in the Arctic and Antarctica, which causes the sea level to rise around the whole globe (Church & White, 2011). This process causing inundation of low-lying lands, erodes shorelines, exacerbates flooding, and increases estuaries and aquifers' salinity (Hossain, 2010). Due to its geographic location, the coastal area of Bangladesh can be sunk completely into the sea at the end of 21st century (Figure 7) (Sarwar & Khan, 2007). Moreover, climate change mitigation in Bangladesh is obstructed due to limited financial resources (Brouwer et al.2007).

Figure 7. Sea level rising in the coastal region (Source: Rekacewicz, 2006) 9

Sea level rise is a big problem in Bangladesh, and it causes loss of more than millions of hectares of arable land. Moreover, millions of people lost their homes, farms, and fishing equipment and opportunities (Rahman & Rahman, 2018). Additionally, the mangrove forest, Sundarbans, potentially can be totally destroyed. The future impact of the sea level rise can be tangible for the whole country. The constant decrease in arable land will affect the entire countries' food supply system and availability of fresh water, which will affect all the country's ecosystems (Rahman & Rahman, 2018). Finally, almost 18 million people are living in the low-lying areas and they are affected by sea level rise like no one in the country. Part of them were already forced to migrate to other parts of the country and leave everything behind. One migrant Moneja Begum explained that: ‘We have nothing to survive on…Everything has gone to the stomach of the sea’ (OXFAM, 2017).

6. Impact of Disasters in the coastal region people of Bangladesh Bangladesh, along with its shoreline, is a hot spot for natural disasters. Almost every year, the people of Bangladesh suffer from major natural calamities, which takes a big toll on the poor local people. People in different regions suffer from different types of disasters, including floods, cyclones, soil salinization, and sea-level rise. However, the coastal region population affected by natural disasters much more than other parts of Bangladesh. The impacts from natural disasters are significant and tangible in several sectors.

6.1 Impact on Population Human health is strongly connected to the environment. If the environment is violated, then most likely the human and human health is affected (Kabir et al.2016). In Bangladesh, where the environment is damaged by natural disasters, society is feeling huge pressure, and facing big impacts on people’s life being and health. For example, the cyclones in 1970 and 1991 are among the most catastrophic events in Bangladesh regarding human deaths: around half a million people were dead by these two cyclones.

In August - September 1988, Bangladesh had experienced an extraordinary flood that caused the loss of 1657 human lives. Again, during July - September 1998, Bangladesh experienced another flood that was the most exceedingly terrible in the living memory, due the long exposure duration. The water level raised fast and consequently, almost two-thirds of the territory was submerged, causing almost a thousand people deaths and boundless harm to the nation's economy (MoDMR, 1988; MoDMR ,1998). 10

According to the WHO report in 2008, climate change is a global issue and has no borders. Furthermore, protecting human health is the vital point of every climate change strategies. It requires, strengthening the health sector in each country to be able to deal with the consequences of climate change. Especially, it is important in areas that are regularly facing natural disasters. According to the International Disaster Database amount of these events and victims is constantly rising (Figure 8).

Figure 8. Number of weather-related disasters, and number of victims during 1975-2007, (EM-DAT,2008) However, consequences of natural disasters for human health can be broader and long-term. For example, during and after the flood, people suffer from various diseases: diarrhoea, malaria, fever, dengue, and skin diseases (Yusof et. al,1991) Thus, health sector and its infrastructure are becoming vital in a strategy of mitigating natural disasters and requires constant attention and developing from the government. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated in 2014, that predicted extreme temperatures will spread deadly tropical diseases, and affect a greater population, especially among the poor people.

6.2 Impact on Agriculture and Fisheries Agriculture is the main source of livelihood in the coastal area that is most affected by natural hazards. The number of disasters have increased in the most recent decade with increasing economic damage. Agriculture is one of the main drivers of the economy in Bangladesh and 11 it represents more than one-fifth of the GDP (IFC, 2012). Moreover, almost half of the employed population is working in this sector, which makes it vital for the country (DATABD, 2019). Agriculture activities in Bangladesh is focusing on growing crops and livestock.

Additionally, the fisheries sector in Bangladesh is playing a vital role, and, according to FAO, its production capacity has constantly been growing since 1980 (Figure, 9). Moreover, total fish production (consisting of inland and marine capture, and aquaculture) increased six times in the last 34 years. Further, the fisheries sector is an important source of income injections into the economy (Shamsuzzamana et al.2020). Finally, 9% of the employed population in Bangladesh worked in fisheries sector in 2015 (Karim et al.2015). Thus, the people of Bangladesh and the coastal region are completely dependent on agriculture sectors and fisheries for their livelihood.

Figure 9. Fish capture production by inland and marine waters from 1980 to 2015 in tonnes (FAO, FishStat)

Tangible impacts on these sectors were studied after the cyclone Sidr in 2007 when they found two impacts of this hazard (Huq et al.2015). The first impact was the immediate flood of nearly 50% of the affected area that killed 1230 people and resulted in 114 million US dollars of economic damage. Besides human casualty, the loss of infrastructure was significant; almost 80% of the houses were destroyed, but the biggest impact was in the fisheries sector: shrimp production and aquaculture were almost completely destroyed (Huq et al.2015). Consequently, People lost their commerce, which brought long-term unemployment problems for both the employer and employee. Moreover, there has been emerged long term food and nutritional insecurity as prices of rice, vegetables, fruits, meat, and pulses rises, and the poor cannot afford them to buy (KumarPaul et al.2012) 12

The second-order impacts are the long-term consequences of immediate impacts. For example, the changes in land fertility and water quality (soil and water salinization). Consequently, the arable land is submerged by sea water and cannot be reused for agriculture. Additionally, achieving social welfare services is becoming difficult because most of the local social welfare institutions and educational institutions activities are hindered by the impact of natural disasters (Huq et al.2015).

6.2.1 Crops Natural disasters have an immediate effect on the arable land of the coastal area in Bangladesh. The impact of these events is huge, and the consequences of even one event could be enormous (Hossain et al.2012). For example, in 1988 Bangladesh faced a 45% reduction in agricultural production after a devastating flood. In 1998 more than 2 million hectares of the crops were submerged by floodwater. In 2007 tidal surge from cyclone Sidr (Figure, 10) covered more than 2 million hectares of arable land and affected 14 million people. Besides, almost 2.6 million hectares of crops are being damaged every year by floods (Rahman & Rahman, 2018).

Due to the sea level rise and soil salinization, food production is already being threatened. In the coastal region, the main reason for the low food production is soil salinization and sea-level rise. Therefore, every year large volumes of land are losing fertility. The future impact of the soil salinization is estimated in decreasing of growing rice in 272 000 tons less in 2030 (Rahman & Rahman, 2018).

Figure 10. Rice field after cyclone Sidr, 2007(Photo:FAO)

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6.2.2 Livestock Livestock is a valuable and important source of income and nutrition for Bangladesh's people. Particularly people from the coastal region are dependent on livestock. Livestock includes growing cattle, goats, sheep, and poultry. Farmers harvest milk and meat from livestock and usually, after satisfying their needs, residuals are sold in the local village market. Additionally, the cattle are used for the cultivation of agricultural land. But natural disasters like cyclone Sidr in 2007, hampered coastal regions people’s livelihood and their traditional profession. Consequently, nearly 80% of the animals and 76% of the poultry died due to the destructive effects of the cyclone Sidr in 2007. As a result, cattle and poultry farms were completely destroyed and farmers lost almost 20 million US dollars (BMOF, 2008).

6.2.3 Fisheries Fisheries is one of the fastest growing sectors in the coastal area in Bangladesh. Thus, people from coastal districts (Figure, 11) like Shatkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat, Cox’s Bazaar, Chittagong, Barguna, and Bhola are mostly employed in the fisheries sector. However, often some of these fishermen ignore warnings and alerts for cyclone. For example, over 3000 fishermen and 500 fishing boats were lost during the cyclone Sidr in 2007 (PTI, 2007).

Figure 11. Shrimp farming in the coastal districts of Bangladesh (Source: Marinefreshbd) There was already mentioned above cyclone Sidr damaged these shrimp industries. The ponds were submerged and breached by the cyclone’s water. Thus, shrimps escaped from the ponds. The total damage was estimated at 6.7 million US dollars (BMOF, 2008)

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6.3 Impact on Infrastructure The natural disasters have an impact on the infrastructures, including roads, power lines, houses, educational institutions. These are frequently affected and damaged by floods, cyclones, and other natural disaster events. Moreover, often residences become destroyed and the inhabitants turn out to be homeless. Similarly, the tangible effect of natural disasters on business is massive. For example, almost two thousand non-agricultural companies were seriously affected by the cyclone Sidr in 2007. The loss (or serious damages) was concerning buildings and equipment. Thus, many coastal people lost their job places or even became homeless. The total physical damage is estimated at 3.8 million US dollars (BMOF, 2008)

Besides, there were 27 000 industrial companies with nearly 141 000 employed people, which went bankrupt procedures due to cyclone Sidr impact in 2007.

6.4 Impact on Environment Natural disasters have a destructive impact on the environment. Heavy rainfall and storm surge from cyclones often disrupt the ecosystem. Due to cyclones and floods, pesticides and salty water enter the land and forest, caused a reduction of fertility. Therefore, plants and crops cannot grow anymore. The direct impact of natural disasters is strengthened by industries chemicals submerged into the waterway and contaminated drinking water. Consequently, people are exposed to a cancer-causing substance, animals lacking drinking water or forced to drink contaminated water and, as a result, often dies. Moreover, natural disasters intensify the effect of heavy metal and various bacteria pollution in coastal areas (Erickson et al.2019).

Figure 12. Twisted trees of Sundarbans after cyclones (Photo: Anamitra Anurag Danda) 15

The largest mangrove forest Sundarbans is located in the south-west and covers almost 600 000 hectares of land in Bangladesh. It is designated as a nature protection area. In Essence, it is a natural wall. Thus, the Sundarbans are always effective in protecting this region from cyclones and natural disasters events. This mangroves forest sited in coastal districts: Shatkhira, Khulna, and Bagherhat. It has over 270 different bird species, 35 reptile species, and 42 mammal species (including the famous Royal Bengal tiger).

In 2007 Cyclone Sidr affected nearly 30% of the Sundarbans and has heavy impact on the ecosystem. In the (Figure, 12), The trees were uprooted, broken, and twisted. According to the forest Ministry of Bangladesh, almost 2% was completely and 5% was partially affected out of 600 000 hectares of this mangrove forest (BMOF, 2008).

6.5 Impact on socio-economic system Natural disasters are causing migration process of coastal region people from the village to the cities. The main occupation of coastal people is agriculture, fishing, and livestock. Natural disasters are having a direct effect on their economy. Impacts of disasters like cyclones or floods are often are too large and do not allow them to continue their main job in fisheries or agriculture sectors. It is quite often that people can lose everything after a storm. It brings a big change in the economy of the affected zone of people. After the cyclone Sidr 2007 and cyclone Aila 2009, Bishawjit Mallick ran three surveys (between 2007 and 2009) on 1555 households in 48 villages of southwest coastal districts about changing the social status and migrations processes triggered by the cyclones. Households were classified by the degree of faced impact as most vulnerable and nearly resilient. It was found that almost a quarter of the families moved towards neighbouring cities immediately after the emergency relief works stopped. At the same time, at least one family member from the rest of the vulnerable households migrated to big cities like Dhaka and Chittagong. Before the incidents of cyclones and other natural disasters, the farmers were wealthy. But the cyclones ruined their farmlands, fruits garden, fisheries ponds, which derived them looking for physical labour jobs in the big cities. In some cases, part of them did not get a job when they arrived in big cities. Usually, they lived in the slums, where no health sanitation facility was available, lack of access to drinking water, and high exposure to health risks. (Mallick, 2014).

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7. Adaptation strategies Adaptation is the way in which species change over time in response to the changing demand of their environment (Reeve & Sherman, 1993). Through adaptation, people can develop certain physiological, behavioural, and structural traits to raise their survival chances in natural disasters events. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001), adaptation is an adjustment in ecological, social, or economic systems in response to observed or expected changes in climate and their effects and impacts in order to alleviate the adverse impacts of change or take advantage of new opportunities. Therefore, adaptation is the continual gaining of survival strengths to sustain species existence regarding the changing of the harsh environments.

Bangladesh is a natural disaster-prone country. Thus, the frequency of natural disasters like cyclones, floods, soil salinization, and sea-level rise are widespread. Around 35 million people are inhabitants of the coastal zone (Ahmad, 2019), and it is important to take adaptation strategies to mitigate disasters hazards.

The people living at the coast are generally known for their resilience as they often face periodic natural disasters and climate change effects. The inaccessibility and remoteness of the coast made the people hardened and self-dependent (Haque, 2019). Therefore, I focus on how the people in Bangladesh's coastal region maintain their livelihood by applying existing indigenous and institutional adaptation strategies.

7.1 Indigenous adaptation strategies Peoples have been living in the coastal areas of Bangladesh over the years, and they have frequently experienced natural disaster events. Inherently, they know how to manage the risk of natural hazards in their own way (Haque, 2019). Therefore, they are more confident and secure about the usage of their neighbourhood’s information in crises. Thus, their functional knowledge has evolved over generations and has frequently proved to be extra powerful (Rahman & Alam, 2016).

Inhabitants in the coastal region applying their basic instinct to predict cyclones by measuring the wind power, colour of the sky, nature of the water wave of sea and river. These symptoms become very useful to prepare themselves before the landfall of cyclones (Haque, 2019; Rahman & Alam, 2016).

Traditionally, people choose to build their houses with a high floor, which is encompassed by the multipurpose tree and shrubby plants, especially to serve the purpose of wind 17 protection, erosion control, and habitat restoration in addition to uses for health-conscious drinks and foods. They normally plant defensive trees like coconut, areca nut, dates, palmyra palm, fish-tail palm, cyperus, and screw pine, maintaining their appropriate spacing. These windbreaks trees offer natural protection to shelter from adverse conditions (Rahman et al.2015).

Before the landfilling of cyclones, people locate themselves in relatively dependable places like embankments and polders to not be blown away by the heavy wind the current of the waters. They normally keep dry food like Chira (dry rice) and molasses wrapping with the plastic bag. They use and eat things that are handy and edible surrounding them. They use local herbs for treating minor diseases and injuries like fever before coming to the relief team and medicine. (Haque, 2019)

To reduce the risks of floods, people use natural techniques. They can predict with high confidence upcoming floods by observations of ants behaviour: the ants come from the low land to the high land or shifting their mounds to a higher place. During the floods, people use sandbags, frozen cement blocks, and bricks to protect themselves so that the floods water can not get inside their homes. (Haque, 2019).

Even though Indigenous strategies are mostly based on locality or a certain community, culture, faiths, tradition, and language, which implies use of indigenous strategies are not universal and vary from place to place (Maferetlhane 2012). But it plays an important role as a key contributor to mitigate immediate effect of natural disasters in the coastal region of Bangladesh.

7.2 Institutional adaptation strategies The government of Bangladesh has taken the comprehensive initiatives of establishing disaster management programs to mitigate the risks of natural hazards in Bangladesh's coastal area. Being the most disaster-prone country within South Asia, Bangladesh became the first country created a separate Disaster Management Bureau (DMB) in 1993. Additionally, NGOs and the World Bank work with the government to mitigate risks derived from natural hazards. These entities are collectively working to expand the suitable adaptation techniques to decrease the disaster threat in the coastal region.

The NGOs like International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement, CARE Bangladesh, UDDIPAN, BRAC, ASA and Save Bangladesh are working with the Bangladesh government to reduce the risk of natural disasters in the coastal region of Bangladesh. The 18 government of Bangladesh has taken some large steps throughout the previous few years for constructing up institutional preparations from countrywide to the union (Local municipal office) stages for effective and systematic disaster control facilitating mitigation. For example, the government has constructed almost 3000 cyclone shelters and 200 flood shelters. An approximately 4000 km long coastal embankment has been newly constructed to protect coastal areas and inhabitants from inundation by tidal waves and storm surges, and cyclones through these development projects. Besides, almost 5000 km drainage channels have been dug out to flow the water through river and canal towards the Bay of Bengal (ADRC, 2003).

The country has a good number of institutional authorities to achieve technical monitoring, capacity building, preparedness, and response (Khandker, 2006). The Ministry of Food and Disaster Management is responsible for coordinating national disaster management efforts across all agencies. In 2004 Ministry of Food and Disaster Management (MoFDM) launched the Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP) to facilitate reform of the disaster management approach by expanding its focus from reactive emergency response to proactive risk reduction (MoFDM, 2005).

To maintain proper coordination among the concerned Ministries, Departments, utility companies, local authorities ensure their proper efficiency to mitigate human sufferings and reduce economic loss. The Government of Bangladesh has formulated fast mechanisms for Councils and Committees to the grass-root ranges. The natural disasters’ management and mitigations institutions of Bangladesh follows this (Figure 13) hierarchy: the National Disaster Management Council (NDMC) is responsible for strategic decisions for disaster management; the Inter-ministerial Disaster Management Committee (IMDMC)is responsible for coordination across ministries; and the National Disaster Management Advisory Committee is responsible for policy development and advice. The Ministry of Food and Disaster Management (MoFDM) is responsible for implementing the policies and strategies on the field level, and its sub-departments, and sub-sub-departments are maintaining the field-level management activities, and relief works. The NDMC is the highest-level decision-making body for disasters management in Bangladesh (Relief Web, 2019). 19

Figure 13. Disasters management institutions in Bangladesh (Source: Disaster Management Bureau,2010)

Additionally, around half a million field workers have been trained through various disaster management related courses and workshop to assist in the coastal areas. The purpose of their job is to increase public awareness among the communities. Moreover, as part of public awareness, the government periodically arrange community workshops by field workers. People have been provided booklets containing information about the cyclone, flood, and calendar, posters depicting disaster points in the coastal areas. Furthermore, for raising awareness about natural disasters and risk mitigation government implemented disaster warning and management-related content in the educational curriculum from fifth to twelfth grade. The government has also assigned two hours of compulsory training sessions on disaster management in all officials and non-officials training institutions (ADRC, 2003).

Besides, in order to facilitate financially the climate changes adaptation strategies in 2011, a multi-donor fund, BCCRF, created by the collaboration of the Government of Bangladesh, development partners (for example, UKAID, AUSAID, EUAID), and the World Bank. The aim of this fund is to help Bangladesh to mitigate climate change and natural disasters risks. Where world bank plays a supervisor and monitoring role. This fund's objective is to collect and disburse funds for climate adaptation and build resilience (Cyclones and Floods shelter, roads, houses, modern warning system and embankment) to the effects of climate change for people in the coastal regions (Khan , Huq, & Shamsuddoha, 2012).

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Table 1. Projects financed by World Bank on infrastructure to mitigate disaster risks (World Bank)

Project name Approved year Project allocation in Infrastructures million US$

CEIP 2013 400 Embankment

MDSP 2015 350 Roads, houses and cyclones and floods shelter WCSRP 2017 113 Improvement of early warning system

The World Bank approved the coastal embankment improvement project (CEIP) with its financing in 400 million US dollars (Table 2). Since 2013 this project helps Bangladesh protect its coastal regions people and assets to mitigate natural disasters risks. It enhances the capacity of handling the rehabilitation effectively and efficiently to the Bangladesh government. This project directly improves more than half a million people's livelihoods by upgrading length of embankment, Drainage structures, length of Drainage and Afforesting coastal areas. Which have positive impact on agricultural production and enhancing the coastal areas' overall resilience to the cyclone (WB, 2018).

The Multipurpose Disaster Shelter Project (MDSP) is a project that primarily focuses on reconstructing infrastructures: roads, houses, schools-cum-cyclone shelters. The World Bank has financed the 350 million US dollars in 2015. Since then, this project improved around 6000 shelters, 500 rehabilitation centres, and 600 kilometres of roads to access the shelters (WB, 2018).

Through the Weather and Climate Services Regional Project (WCSRP) for Bangladesh, the World Bank has financed 113 million US dollars to increase the efficiency of the forecasting and warning system of natural disasters. This improvement helps the authority to take the organized preparedness and reduce the risks in the vulnerable regions where the natural disasters take place (WB, 2018). 21

Furthermore, the Agricultural Ministry and Fisheries Ministry are jointly working to help farmers and fisheries to cultivate crops and fish together. These two ministries and their sub- departments conduct a workshop for training and education on how the coastal region farmers can gain maximum production from their agriculture and aquaculture. Previously the farmers are focusing on one crop production. Now they focus on a combined way of growing crops-fish-livestock and floating vegetable gardens (Ahmed et al.2012).

Coastal zone management provides the best long-haul sustainable development to the people and the environment. It unites the government and communities, people, management, and sectorial interests to protect and develop coastal ecosystems and resources. Which ultimately a great remedy to reduce the disaster risks in the coastal area.

8. Some Drawbacks in implementing of adaptation strategies The people of the coastal region of Bangladesh are not very serious about the warnings and alerts of natural disasters (Tanvir & Martin, 2012). Before the cyclone, Aila 2009, almost half of the people in the coastal region did not take seriously the warning (Tanvir & Martin, 2012). They preferred to stay at their homes for various reasons; for instance: their negligence, they did not want to leave their belonging at their home and bad experience about the cyclone shelters (Tanvir & Martin, 2012).

However, along with the Weather Forecast Department and Disaster Management Committee at the local level, the union Parishad (local municipal government) is responsible for announcing warning messages by the megaphone announcement. Nevertheless, often this activity is not effective due to their irresponsibilities (Tanvir & Martin, 2012).

Additionally, the local representative, including Member of Parliament, local municipal council chairmen and members, and the wealthy people, are involved in corruption affecting relief and rescue programs. Some victims claimed that they had to bribe local representatives to get relief (financial and food aid) (Tanvir & Martin, 2012 ; Shamsuddoha & Chowdhury, 2007)

Furthermore, there are reports about corruption and malpractices in infrastructure related processes: reconstructing and upgrading roads, dam or embankment, and cyclon shelters. Often, the local people in the coastal region are not satisfied with the efficiency of embarkment and cyclone shelters. It is the result of cammed choice of inexperienced sub- contractors, and their integrity is questionable. Moreover, most of these sub-contractors are 22 formed by the local MP (Member of Parliament), local government representatives, ruling party activists, and wealthy families (Tanvir & Martin, 2012).

The Ministry of Forest and Environment and The Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief play the main role for reducing the risk of natural disasters. However, often their employees and managers are involved in corruption and malpractices. Therefore, corruption inhibits to implement the development of climate policies and adaptation strategies of natural disasters risk reduction. (TIB, 2013).

Bangladesh state-owned (not-for-profit) company Palli Karma-Sahayak Foundation (PKSF) funds micro-credits to the people of the coastal region for adaptation to climate changes and risk reduction through the NGOs. The NGOs receive grants from the Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund (BCCTF). However, Transparency International Bangladesh emphasized malpractice and corruption practice in selecting some NGOs. Major part of risks and implementation reduction strategies to it. Nevertheless, despite the obvious limitations they were selected due to their strong political connection and influences (TIB, 2013). For example, 10 NGOs out of 55 found as non-existent, but they had been granted funds. Besides, 13 NGOs, executives were involved in politics. Even, funding allocations in the coastal areas were treated differently and unequally in comparison to the less affected and some northern districts of Bangladesh. The worst affected districts, Khulna and Satkhira, received relatively low funding, and other coastal districts Bagerhat got nothing. According to the Transparency International Bangladesh, projects and areas should be selected based on local needs but not political influence, nepotism, and other malpractices (TIB, 2013).

Therefore, in order to be successful in implementing adaptation strategies the authorities should pay extra attention to the climate changes and natural disasters risk reduction funds distribution and allocation. The developed countries and charity organisations are willing to support Bangladesh in its natural disasters risk reduction strategies and projects. Nevertheless, country must show to the supporters its ability to develop and maintain projects equally according to their needs and real vulnerability to the natural disasters’ impacts. (TRF, 2013).

9. SWOT analysis SWOT Analysis is a widespread and effective tool for strategic planning and management in the organizations for evaluating the existing plans or strategies. SWOT analysis has four sections: Strength, Weakness, Opportunities, and Threats, classified as internal and external 23 components respectively. Each component has a strong potentiality to impact achieving the goal from the undertaken strategies (Gurel & Tat, 2017).

In my thesis, the key concept is the effectiveness of adaptation strategies, including Indigenous and institution-based adaptation strategies. Adaptation strategies are applying for effective development of organizational and competitive actions. However, every adaptation strategy has some weaknesses & threats, too. Thus, SWOT analysis of adaptation strategies has been done in the matrix view on the strength, weakness, opportunities, and threats.

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9.1 SWOT analysis for Indigenous adaptation strategies STRENGTHS WEAKNESS

Sustainable and Environmentally friendly: Illiteracy: People use traditional Available resources are used in implementing strategies because the literacy rate is low indigenous adaptation strategies to mitigate natural in the coastal region of Bangladesh. risks, which are inexpensive as well as environmentally Thus, improving of existing strategies are friendly. Due to environmental friendliness this performing slowly or not happening at approach sustains over times (Haque, 2019). all.

Promoting afforestation: People plant trees willingly Temporary Solution: The longevity of surrounding their properties and houses. Consequently, the implementation of indigenous the intensity of natural disasters could be mitigated. strategies to reduce natural disaster risk is

Integration of indigenous knowledge: In a very short time. Thus, adopted implementing traditional knowledge to protect lives approaches are very vulnerable to the

INTERNAL and properties and reduce risks of natural disasters insensitivity of natural disasters. people share their indigenous strategies among them. Livelihoods depend on natural This activity helps different knowledge and strategies resources: The people of coastal areas to be integrated. are mostly employed in the occupation of

Cost-efficiency: Doesn’t require any or big money farming and fishing. As a result, natural inflow. disasters impact easily make them jobless that their livelihoods badly are disrupted.

OPPORTUNITIES THREATS

Utilization of local resources, wisdom and involving Absences of new ideas: Frequent use of local people: Traditional knowledge has an immediate traditional knowledge constraints the remedy. That can be more effective by Government establishment of new ideas. Users of cooperation. For instance, the government can local and indigenous adaptation subsidize distributing plants for afforestation that can strategies do not willingly accept new

ensure applying involvement and traditional wisdom of ideas. coastal people. Losses in health and properties: Adaptation of indigenous strategies is very vulnerable to mitigate the

EXTERNAL magnitude of disaster risks. The immediate impact of natural disasters results in physical and property loss (including agriculture, fisheries, and livestock).

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9.2 SWOT analysis for Institutional adaptation strategies STRENGTHS WEAKNESS

Strong Institutional setup and rehabilitation Lack of coordination, implementation, program: Bangladesh follows top to bottom efficiency, and weak performance assessment institutional hierarchy for reducing disaster in government sector: In the coastal area, local risks (Khandker, 2006). For example, cyclone authorities often are not competent in shelters and embankment save coastal peoples' implementing institutional strategies (Tanvir & lives and mitigate losses. Thus, institutional Martin, 2012). There is also a lack of

setup and strategies help to reduce vulnerability coordination among disaster risk management and increase population resilience. and reduction departments. Besides, there is the incapability to assess natural disasters' Use of scientific studies and warning system: vulnerability by the field-level government INTERNAL The scientific-based studies help in formulating officials (Shamsuddoha & Chowdhury, 2007). and implementing natural risk reduction programs Moreover, the scientific forecasting Limited resources: Bangladesh has not enough system helps people be prepared with their resources: skilled professionals, finances and belongings and authority to evacuate coastal technical infrastructure. inhabitants before natural disasters.

OPPORTUNITIES THREATS

Facilitating coordination, evacuation and Political intervention, corruption, and relief management: The government can malpractice: The correlation between political assign a commissioner in every local municipal intervention and corruption is usually positive. It office in the coastal region for supervising has emerged that political influence inhibits disaster management and risk reduction affairs. effective disaster management and relief works. The local governmental authorities often face

Increasing efficiency in use of research in obstacles to implementing institutional disaster strategic analysis: The government can risk reduction strategies in the coastal regions allocate more funds for research and strategic (Tanvir & Martin, 2012). analysis of reducing natural disaster risks

EXTERNAL (Adger,2010). Lack of leadership: There is lack of appropriate leadership in implementing institutional

adaptation strategies (Shamsuddoha & Chowdhury, 2007).

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Indigenous strategies are considered the most sustainable. However, researchers evaluated their efficiency as questionable due to studies about these strategies (Nakashima & Roue 2002). Therefore, using indigenous adaptation strategies for reducing natural disasters risks is disputed and cannot be considered as the most effective choice.

On the other hand, scientific understanding of social vulnerability defines the effective use and access to resources, which ultimately determines the capability of any community to adjust to adverse events (Adger, 2010). Therefore, through scientific approach, a good number of disaster risk management and reduction intuitions, and institutional adaptation strategies should be established and implemented top to bottom in Bangladesh (Relief Web, 2019). Despite some limitation (lack of coordination and inefficiency, corruptions and malpractice) in implementing institutional adaptation strategies, their efficiency is higher (Choudhury et al.2019) and these strategies have long-time effect and scientific base for mitigating adverse events. Moreover, those flaws could be minimized by good governance and require continuous improvement on governmental and local levels (Bhuiyan,2015). Thus, my recommendations based on the analysis in this thesis is to concentrate on improving and developing Institutional adaptation strategies. They can be a potential long- run solution for coastal areas in Bangladesh. However, the government can’t ignore effective parts of Indigenous strategies and can use their benefits for immediate on-field reaction to large-scale natural disasters, improving community knowledge by implementing scientific approaches, and promoting in-depth education of community leaders.

10. Conclusion Natural disasters are catastrophic events affecting nature and society. The only way to deal with them is to reduce their effects and create effective adaptation strategies. Bangladesh and its population suffer from frequent natural disasters. Thus, implementing effective adaptation strategies in the coastal region of Bangladesh is very important. Moreover, findings in a way of increasing their efficiency are on the agenda. However, the efficiency and overall implementation of two existing adaptation strategies (Indigenous and Institutional) are questionable. During work on the thesis, I found that both strategies have their strong and weak sides.

The Government, local and international NGOs, and donor organizations are important in achieving a high level of adaptation to natural disasters in coastal areas of Bangladesh through their financial injections and mitigation events. These actions are aiming to help 27 potentially vulnerable communities to be prepared for impacts of natural disasters on a local level. It includes warning systems, afforestation promotion, crop seeds distribution, and affordable and easy to obtain loans to farmers and local business. Moreover, vital for effective implementations of adaptation strategies are actions aimed to increase people’s education level. It is clear, that an educated and motivated community can fight impacts of natural disasters more successful. Additionally, it can potentially partially solve immediate migration problems as trained people know how to deal before, during, and after natural hazards events. Thus, the migration decision will not be the only solution for community members. Indigenous adaptation strategy can supplement Institutional strategy and help allocate resources in an effective way. This combination of strategies requires separate study and close collaboration of society, researchers, and authorities. However, my assumption that all members of the adaptation strategies system should show equal interest and participation, and request acceleration of these processes because they forget about perhaps the most important resource in dealing with climate change – time. Consequently, we need to learn how to use this resource efficiently.

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