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Trendwatch 2.0 Q4 2011 Payments System Industry Synopsis

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Trendwatch 2.0 Q4 2011 Payments System Industry Synopsis CARD Act, OD fees gone, Dodd- Frank- Durbin. Lord, what more could go wrong? Wait, is that my mobile phone butt dialing an Amazon order? TrendWatch 2.0 Q4 2011 Payments System Industry Synopsis Notice: Materials contained in this document are drawn from several media sources and Dorado Industries is not responsible for their accuracy. Opinions expressed herein are presented without warranty. Brand names are the trademarks of their respective service offerors. Random Thoughts When it rains, it pours. Why? Abandonment of MC/V rails comes in second and players It looks like we’re in for another run of alternative payment like Dwolla and Nacha’s Secure Value Payments system are providers offering merchant and issuer value propositions aggressive enrolling issuers and merchants in an effort to designed to tempt consumers away from traditional payments avoid traditional payments pricing models. brands, rails, and pricing. We’ve seen this at least twice Unique market vertical focus applied by startups TabbedOut before. Ten years ago, payments got caught up in the dot-com and Rail targets special problems in the leisure and hospitality frenzy and about a half-decade back tokens, bracelets, and tags verticals by promoting the notion that “one size does not fit were attempting to irradiate consumers as they eschewed their all.” leather wallets in favor the bright glowing object of The fourth driver, elimination of check out lines and POS contactless payments. lanes, seems to be getting the most traction of all. By Both of these waves crashed for a variety of reasons and a lot leveraging mobile phone GPS, on-board camera and scanner of us were caught short. We think that having a framework for technology, and aggregated product data, companies like the drivers behind the current wave in alternative payments AisleBuyer, ShopSavvy, and Australia’s QkR are empowering might help us assess the long-term value they bring and their consumers both shop and buy without dealing without cashiers probability of being successful in their own right and or POS devices, two of retailers’ biggest expense categories. contributors to FI, retailer and network bottom lines. How many of these offerings will Avoidance of the cost of PCI compliance is the first succeed is probably unknowable. Yet, if framework driver, one that impacts all parties to the payments the drivers in our framework prove to be system. Most mobile applications that leverage NFC sound, we could see newcomers take the technology and imbedded Secure Elements target PCI place of those that fade and perhaps one compliance cost avoidance by purporting to deliver a more day we will no longer be burdened by SOPA secure transaction. Narrate’s ultrasonic application for POS PCI, outdated pricing models, retailer transactions claims to be incapable of being skimmed or queues, and check out systems that sniffed. Merchant PCI compliance costs can exceeds tens of expose us to fraud. In the meantime, millions of dollars for larger retailers making the driver a non-mainstream retailers may final significant long term player. receive some attention from the payments industry. Dorado Industries (310) 544-1316 655 Deep Valley Drive, Suite 125-P 2 [email protected] Rolling Hills Estates, CA 90274 www.doradoindustries.com Table of Contents 2011 Predictions/Results 4 2012 Predictions 6 TrendWatch Scorecard/Summary 7 2011 Payments Industry Yields 8 Interesting Quarterly News That Got No Respect 9 New Names to Watch 13 Q2 M&A/Investor Activity 14 Useful Links for More Information 20 Back in the Day 21 Dorado Industries (310) 544-1316 655 Deep Valley Drive, Suite 125-P 3 [email protected] Rolling Hills Estates, CA 90274 www.doradoindustries.com 2011 Predictions and Review • Despite good efforts to the contrary and Visa’s plan to support dual interchange schedules, exempt debit card issuers will suffer major product profitability declines as a consequence of Durbin. Mar. Won’t know until the end the year. Sit tight. Jun. Fed’s final rules changed things somewhat by raising the floor and putting the industry on notice that big brother will be watching. Sep. Already happening as networks lop off 15-20 basis points here and there while kicking up the small ticket fees. Nobody happy. Dec. Merchant group sues the Fed for not doing its job correctly. If successful, the game really is over. • A major retailer will take first-mover action to propel mobile payments out of its holding pattern in cottage industry land – doesn’t include early players McDonald’s, Starbucks, Coca Cola, or Jack in the Box. Mar. Major retailers at the Alternative Payments Systems Innovation conference stated that they wanted lower costs, shorter lines, strong security, dial tone reliability, easy implementation, and low maintenance in mobile payments. A tall order; might not happen this year. Jun. Now that the Fed has reneged on its first Durbin offer, it’s likely that retailers will move on with mobile. Sep. Press releases popping all the time with this or that retailer joining Google or Isis. No full-blown movement yet. Dec. Does the Home Depot/PayPal lash-up count? We think so. • Isis, the mobile payments consortium, will launch to a lukewarm response. Mar. Didn’t see any skyrockets when Isis announced its 2012 (really?) transportation pilot in Salt Lake City. Jun. Yet another change of direction announced – entering Austin market for pilots. We see the term “flip-flop” being used a lot. Sep. Isis may actually get stronger through its “heads or tails” approach. Google launch delay has allowed time for others to re-think. Dec. Guess we’ll just have to wait for the Salt Lake City light rail/bus experiment to launch in 2012. • Major retailer profits will grow in the second half of 2011 but we will not be able to cite Durbin as the reason. (And, if the issue is raised, the MPC will brush it off.) Mar. Waiting to see what happens in Q3 and Q4. Jun. Fed Chairman poured cold water on this prediction. Sep. Heartland’s “Durbin Dollars” report is pretty clever and suggests that the money is flowing in already. Where it’s going isn’t clear. Dec. Several articles and a survey stating that consumers have yet to see better pricing as a result of Durbin. Same results as surveys conducted in Australia. Shouldn’t come as a surprise – 1) major retailers are accountable to shareholders just like banks and 2) product pricing is a function of cost, value and competition; there’s never been a direct causal relationship between lower costs and lower prices. Dorado Industries (310) 544-1316 655 Deep Valley Drive, Suite 125-P 4 [email protected] Rolling Hills Estates, CA 90274 www.doradoindustries.com 2011 Predictions • Having lost the pricing advantage between their products and POS debit, two providers of alternative payments schemes will fold or sell out cheap. Mar. Again tied to the Fed’s final rules – which won’t be ready by April 21 as required. Nice. Jun. Three on a match! FaceCash and Bling Nation shut down to “re-think” their business models. Tempo is both in a ditch and liquidating. Sep. Game over. Dec. Yet new alternative forms of payment keep popping up. 2012 will see a new crop of upstarts and startups. • Starbucks will selectively open use of its proprietary prepaid card to retail partners. Target, with its 1,000 in-store coffee facilities, might be first. Mar. Nothing yet but it’s going to happen! Jun. Still waiting; come on guys, it’s the next logical step. Sep. Guys must be using too much of their decaf product. This is a slam dunk, Starbucks! If Facebook can do it with Credits, so can you. Dec. Guess we missed this one. In the meantime, buyers of new Blackberry phones can no longer rely on Starbucks for 2D app support. Bummer! Dorado Industries (310) 544-1316 655 Deep Valley Drive, Suite 125-P 5 [email protected] Rolling Hills Estates, CA 90274 www.doradoindustries.com 2012 Predictions • Four new payments schemes designed to maximize mobile phone functionality while eliminating the need for retailer check out lanes will proliferate – two will be launched by merchants, two from third parties. • CFPB or DOJ will put the buy-here, pay-here segment for automobiles and accessories out of business. • At least one of the top ten FIs will be merged out. • Congress will turn its back on efforts to repeal Durbin and/or materially alter Dodd-Frank. • American Express will prevail in its suit with DOJ. • By yearend, China UnionPay’s base of cardholders will be 120 percent of Visa’s. • Nokia’s partnership with Microsoft will save it from extinction. Dorado Industries (310) 544-1316 655 Deep Valley Drive, Suite 125-P 6 [email protected] Rolling Hills Estates, CA 90274 www.doradoindustries.com TrendWatch Scorecard/Summary – Q4 2011 Industry Players To Watch The Fed: The regulator needs to take the suit filed by NRF, FMI, and NACS as serious as a heart attack. Congress: New legislation designed to overturn Durbin is well funded and could prevail as the road to the 2012 elections straightens out. Positive CFPB: Not six hours after being anointed by President Obama, Richard Cordray sent out thousands of emails soliciting guidance on which evil- Mixed doing mole the agency should whack first. Looks like student loans may Negative top the list but payments can’t be far behind. Apple: Its sheath of patents surrounding Siri contains veiled as well as Med 1. New Payment Forms none-too- subtle references to ATMs, e-commerce, and in-store shopping. But we expected that from Apple, right? Low 2.
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