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UNO Template 01 October 2015 Asia Pacific/Japan Equity Research Product Marketing Japan Monthly Highlights Product Manager MONTHLY Daisuke Takato 813 4550 9671 [email protected] September 2015 ■ We kicked off September with new joiner Mika Nishimura initiating on the consumer electronics sector. Her top pick is Sony (6758), as she expects earnings growth from CMOS sensors used in cameras and the PlayStation game platform. She also has OUTPERFORM ratings on Casio (6952) and Seiko (8050) in the watch sector, and on Clarion (6796) in the car electronics sector. She maintains a negative tone on the LCD makers, with an UNDERPERFORM on Sharp (6753) and a NEUTRAL on Japan Display (6740), as the industry continues to face pricing pressure. ■ The Toyota New Global Architecture (TNGA) is the carmaker's major push to reduce the number of suppliers by sharing and commonizing parts across their multitude of platforms, and cut production costs by about 30%. Analysts Masahiro Akita and Koji Takahashi explain that we could expect supply chain consolidation announcements toward the end of the year, as we saw in 2014, and analyze market share moves of 80-plus components over the last decade to try and spot where consolidation is likely. Key stocks to watch include automatic-transmission maker Aisin Seiki (7259), seat maker Toyota Boshoku (3116), and newly initiated Aisan Industries (7283). ■ Masataka Kurita also debuted as our new Japan quant strategist, as he used text mining and a proprietary glossary to scour the "earnings outlook" portion of the Shikiho company handbook, looking for keywords such as “upgrade”, “downgrade”, “recovery” and “slowdown” and apply a quantitative score to these words. He then built a portfolio split up into quintiles and backtested the performance five years to show that companies which score highest outperformed the TOPIX by 25%, while the lowest-scoring companies underperformed by 38%. ■ Takashi Miura initiated coverage of regional banks with an UNDERWEIGHT, arguing that Japanese regional banks have not diversified and still rely on domestic net interest income for 80% of top-line revenue. In the near to medium term, lower interest rates and JGB yields, combined with fierce competition, will likely continue to erode NII, while over the long term we expect a declining population to shrink regional economies. He rates Shizuoka Bank (8355) and Fukuoka FG (8354) at UNDERPERFORM and has a preference for the larger city banks such as Shinsei Bank (8303) and Mitsubishi UFJ (8306). DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 01 October 2015 ■ In the technology sector, Apple's new iPhone 6s was announced, and while the Apple supply chain remains healthy, the overall technology sector lacks visibility. In their latest channel checks, analysts Hideyuki Maekawa, Akinori Kanemoto and Mika Nishimura note that while high-end smartphone demand is solid, PC-related production bottomed in June/July and looks weak for the full year. On the electronic component side, they highlight a risk of a slowdown once production tapers off in the latter part of the Oct–Dec quarter. ■ Toshiba (6502) announced its much-awaited 1Q earnings and its restated results from FY3/11. The decline in NAND profits came in as a negative surprise, Maekawa says, bringing into question the underlying strength of the company. ■ Elsewhere in the tech sector, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's surprise comments pressuring Japanese mobile phone operators to lower fees sent shares of Softbank (9984), KDDI (9433) and NTT DoCoMo (9437) tumbling, erasing as much as ¥3tn in market cap in three days. Analyst Hitoshi Hayakawa points out, however, that Japan's telecom fees are about two-thirds those in the US, while offering higher speed and call quality. ■ Shinya Yamada downgraded his view on steel to MARKET WEIGHT as the global economic slump poses a large downside earnings risk for steelmakers. Global trade value, a key indicator of macroeconomic trends, has declined by double digits over four consecutive months since January 2015, and the sharp drop in commodity prices is mostly due to lower goods movement worldwide and the dollar’s appreciation. Including the current situation, YoY double-digit negative growth has occurred only four times in the last 50 years and should be deemed negative by the market. He downgraded Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal (5401) and JFE Holdings (5411) to NEUTRAL, while keeping an OUTPERFORM on Kobe Steel (5406). However, Kobe Steel later in the month slashed its full-year forecast on weak construction machinery orders and a slowdown in iron and steel demand. ■ Jun Yamaguchi took a comprehensive look at cross-shareholdings for his sector coverage companies. Amid the introduction of the Corporate Governance Code this past June, he examined companies’ shareholdings in terms of type (cross- shareholdings, Zaibatsu shares) and scale (e.g. percentage of total assets), and how the sales of these shares would impact the companies in terms of interest-bearing debt, annual dividends, and investment. ■ The machinery sector has been one of the hardest hit amid a China slowdown, a commodities slump, and concerns about risk of a slowdown in smartphone capex, Shinji Kuroda writes. However, capex for the next generation iPhone is likely to start in December this year or Jan–Mar next year, and Kuroda sees Sep–Oct as a good time to accumulate factory automation stocks ahead of time. His preference is SMC (6273), Yaskawa Electric (6506), and THK (6481) ■ Consumer analyst Masashi Mori initiated coverage of under-covered cosmetics wholesaler PALTAC (8283) with an OUTPERFORM rating. The company is the largest wholesaler of daily essentials in Japan and has doubled its market share in the last decade as it weeds out smaller players. The company is only an indirect beneficiary of inbound demand at present, but it is likely to explore the potential for trading in Japanese products across borders in the future. ■ In the insurance sector, MS&AD (8725) said it reached an agreement to acquire UK- based Amlin for $5.3 billion and turn it into a wholly-owned subsidiary. The acquisition price represents a 32.9% premium to the weighted average price over the past month ■ For read-across from Volkswagen's rigging of emission tests, please see the following reports: autos/auto parts, machinery makers, diesel filter makers, and tech. Japan Monthly Highlights 2 01 October 2015 Japan Focus List We removed Kobe Steel (5406) and Inpex (1605) amid a global slowdown in trade and commodities, and added Sony (6758), after initiating coverage with an OUTPERFORM. Figure 1: Japan Focus List and performance as of Sep 30. Relative performance is vs Topix. RELATIVE PERFORMANCE (%) Performan ce since Upside / Ticker Company Analyst joining list Downside 1w 1m 3m 6m 12m 3382.T Seven & i Holdings Taketo Yamate 47.9 10% 9.0 11.1 16.7 17.3 21.6 9201.T Japan Airlines Timothy Ross 38.6 59% 1.9 5.9 11.6 23.1 34.1 4922.T KOSE Masashi Mori 37.5 20% 9.2 (1.5) 14.9 61.1 126.4 6762.T TDK Akinori Kanemoto 28.9 46% (6.9) (2.7) (13.5) (12.2) 3.6 4528.T Ono Pharmaceutical Fumiyoshi Sakai 27.2 27% (3.4) (0.5) 16.8 18.1 38.7 8801.T Mitsui Fudosan Masahiro Mochizuki 17.1 23% 5.9 5.3 9.2 (1.1) (9.3) 8750.T Dai-ichi Life Insurance Takehito Yamanaka 14.2 58% 4.1 (6.2) (9.9) 13.9 9.9 3402.T Toray Industries Masami Sawato 9.3 43% 4.6 4.3 13.3 12.9 35.7 8303.T Shinsei Bank Takashi Miura 2.7 35% 1.9 1.7 9.0 14.0 (2.1) 6758.T Sony Mika Nishimura 0.1 45% (3.4) (0.1) (3.1) (6.2) 39.2 1803.T Shimizu Corporation Masahiro Mochizuki (0.6) 46% (0.2) (5.5) 9.5 35.4 12.0 5233.T Taiheiyo Cement Jun Yamaguchi (1.3) 54% (0.5) (4.7) 10.6 7.6 (19.9) 6201.T Toyota Industries Masahiro Akita (3.5) 45% (4.9) 2.1 (4.3) (10.5) 0.4 7203.T Toyota Motor Masahiro Akita (7.6) 51% (0.1) 5.1 (0.1) (7.5) 1.5 6367.T Daikin Industries Shinji Kuroda (7.9) 41% (5.4) 0.4 (12.8) (8.4) (8.2) 9984.T SoftBank Group Corp. Hitoshi Hayakawa (10.0) 57% (9.1) (14.3) (9.0) (11.6) (35.2) Source: Credit Suisse estimates Previous Monthly Highlight reports Monthly Highlights Monthly Highlights Monthly Highlights Monthly Highlights (2015) (2014) (2013) (2012) Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Nov May Nov May Nov May Nov May Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Aug Feb Aug Feb Aug Feb Aug Feb Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Japan Monthly Highlights 3 01 October 2015 Figure 2: Target Price and Rating Changes since previous month-end TP N ew O ld Rating Ticker C om pany D ate Analyst N ew TP O ld TP C hange Rating Rating C hange 4912 Lion 08/31 Masashi Mori 1,220 1,200 2% O/P O/P - 4927 Pola Orbis HD 08/31 Masashi Mori 8,200 8,300 -1% O/P O/P - 6762 TDK 08/31 Akinori Kanemoto 9,800 10,300 -5% O/P O/P - 6971 Kyocera 08/31 Akinori Kanemoto 6,600 6,400 3% N N - 8951 Nippon Building Fund 08/31 Masahiro Mochizuki 570,000 530,000 8% N U/P up 4062 IBIDEN 09/01 Akinori Kanemoto 1,880 1,950 -4% U/P U/P - 4185 JSR 09/01 Masami Sawato 2,100 2,250 -7% N N - 4217 Hitachi Chemical 09/01 Masami Sawato 2,900 3,200 -9%
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