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Future Scenarios and Implications for the Industry Shaping the Future of Construction Future Scenarios and Implications for the Industry Prepared in collaboration with The Boston Consulting Group March 2018 World Economic Forum® © 2018 – All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or Transmitted in any form or by any means, including Photocopying and recording, or by any information Storage and retrieval system. REF 210318 Contents 1. Preface 2. Foreword 3. Executive summary 4. 1 Introduction 5. 2 Scenarios and implications for the future of the IU industry 6. 2.1 Scenario 1 | Building in a virtual world 7. 2.1.1 Global context 8. 2.1.2 Implications for the IU industry 9. 2.2 Scenario 2 | Factories run the world 10. 2.2.1 Global context 11. 2.2.2 Implications for the IU industry 12. 2.3 Scenario 3 | A green reboot 13. 2.3.1 Global context 14. 2.3.2 Implications for the IU industry 15. 3 Imperatives to adapt to new realities 16. 3.1 Enable the organization 17. 3.1.1 Attract new talent and build up required skills 18. 3.1.2 Enable change management and adaptiveness 19. 3.2 Digitalize processes 20. 3.2.1 Maximize the use of data and digital models throughout processes 21. 3.2.2 Adopt advanced technologies at scale 22. 3.3 Capture new opportunities 23. 3.3.1 Integrate and collaborate across the value chain 24. 3.3.2 Review product portfolios and embrace new businesses 25. Conclusion 26. Workshop participants 27. Contributors to the Future of Construction Initiative 28. Endnotes Future Scenarios and Implications for the Industry 3 4 Future Scenarios and Implications for the Industry Preface Olivier Schwab The world is confronted with many challenges that could impact the well-being and happiness of Managing society. Among the most severe are rapid urbanization, climate change and resource scarcity. The Director, Head Infrastructure and Urban Development (IU) industry is important in the shaping of a desirable future of Business for our planet. The sector plays a vital role in creating value for society by designing innovative Engagement human- and social-centric solutions. Around the world, 200,000 people a day are migrating to urban World Economic areas, where they need healthy, affordable, sustainable housing and infrastructure. However, the Forum buildings and infrastructure assets the industry constructs account for a substantial portion of global greenhouse gas emissions, which are a major cause of climate change. On top of that, the industry is Michael Max the largest consumer of raw materials, further depleting scarce resources. Buehler Head of To address these concerns, the World Economic Forum established the Shaping the Future of Infrastructure Construction project three years ago. Since then, the initiative has successfully served as a platform and Urban for Forum Partners, governments, academia and civil society to shape the industry’s agenda and find Development innovative solutions to support the industry’s transformation and enhance productivity, sustainability World Economic and affordability. Forum In the initial two-year phase of the project, we prepared a guide for industry transformation and shared lessons learned from leading innovators. At the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2017 in Davos-Klosters, the Governors of the Infrastructure and Urban Development community renewed a strong mandate and requested that we analyse how technological change is disrupting the industry and what implications that has for business strategy, organizational design, including talent and skills, financing and risk allocation. This report is the culmination of that work. During the project’s third and final year, we examined what the IU industry could look like in the future and the strategic implications of that for the key stakeholders and broader society. The outlined transformation imperatives should help the IU industry prepare for a prosperous future. We would like to thank and acknowledge the Forum Partner companies that served on the initiative’s steering committee: foremost engineering and construction, chemicals, building materials, real estate, urban services and technology firms, and the many experts who served on the initiative’s advisory committee. We hope the strategic dialogues held in the workshops upon which this report is based support stakeholders’ efforts to prepare for a challenging but promising future while securing and enhancing the well-being and happiness of society. Future Scenarios and Implications for the Industry 5 Foreword Sandra Wu Wen- The theme of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2018, “Creating a Shared Future in a Hsiu Fractured World”, underscored how quickly emerging developments have called into question long- Chairperson and held beliefs. Until recently, greater economic interdependence among countries was presumed to Chief Executive ensure peace and stability. Current events have dramatically changed that. Geostrategic fissures have Officer re-emerged on multiple fronts with wide-ranging political, economic and social consequences. Kokusai Kogyo, Japan In business, we have experienced a significant reduction in trust, to the point where the 2017 Edelman Trust Barometer reveals that trust is in crisis around the world. The dramatic shift is a wake-up call to Co-Chair of the Infrastructure and Urban Development (IU) industry, since trust is the prime enabler of effective the Steering collaboration. In addition, the industry’s future has become difficult to predict because of global Committee megatrends such as climate change and shifting demographics, and industry-specific trends, for (2017–2018) instance, increasing urbanization and growing talent and infrastructure gaps. Recently, increased Infrastructure volatility and turmoil in world politics have made planning in the IU industry even harder. At the same and Urban time, new digital technologies such as building information modelling (BIM), 3D printing, wireless Development sensors and autonomous equipment are disrupting a range of industries, including IU. Stakeholders Industries can no longer afford to ignore these fundamental changes. Some are beginning to act, but others have World Economic put off preparing for a transformation that is bound to happen. Forum The IU industry lies at the heart of the global economy, directly affecting the quality of our lives and Luis Castilla the well-being of society. The industry must, therefore, react quickly and with appropriate action to Chief Executive changing conditions and opportunities for new business to provide society with sustainable, affordable Officer assets that fulfil human needs. ACCIONA Infraestructuras, This report should encourage IU decision-makers to think strategically about the future and take Spain preparatory steps sooner rather than later. The World Economic Forum’s Shaping the Future of Construction project created several scenarios of how the IU industry could look in the future based on Co-Chair of global trends. These scenarios clearly show that existing capabilities, business models and strategies the Steering will not be sufficient to succeed. The scenarios also pinpoint several common no-regret moves Committee that companies should take to remain relevant. Among these transformation imperatives, the chief (2017–2018) executives of leading IU companies at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2018 prioritized Infrastructure three: attracting new talent and improving skills; integrating and collaborating across the IU value and Urban chain; and adopting advanced technology at scale. Development Industries The Future of Construction project will help our industry and individual companies prepare to address World Economic challenging issues that could hamper their ability to thrive. Decision-makers can visit our knowledge- Forum sharing platform for additional information. We would like to acknowledge and thank all members of the steering and advisory committees, as well as the Forum team for their extraordinary engagement, contribution and support. We look forward to continuing this collaboration to transform our industry and better serve our clients and the communities in which we operate. 6 Future Scenarios and Implications for the Industry Executive Summary Digital technologies have launched the Fourth Industrial The scenarios suggest six common transformation Revolution, transforming entire industries. However, the imperatives that IU companies should take to remain Infrastructure and Urban Development industry (IU) has not relevant. The top three identified by chief executive officers kept up. Most companies in the industry’s many sectors of leading IU companies and ministers of several countries still use primarily manual methods, offer traditional products polled at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting and services and operate according to established practices 2018 are: attract new talent and build up required skills; and business models. Productivity has lagged as a result. integrate and collaborate across the IU value chain; and In addition, while IU’s core engineering and construction adopt advanced technologies at scale. The other three section alone accounts for more than 6% of global GDP imperatives are: maximize the use of data and digital models and employs more than 100 million people, a negative throughout processes; review existing product portfolios and perception of the industry makes it difficult to attract the embrace new business opportunities; and enable change required talent and close a significant talent gap. management and adaptiveness. The IU
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