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Download Thesis This electronic thesis or dissertation has been downloaded from the King’s Research Portal at https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/ Islamist Radicalisation in Italy: Myth or Nightmare? An empirical analysis of the Italian case study Groppi, Michele Awarding institution: King's College London The copyright of this thesis rests with the author and no quotation from it or information derived from it may be published without proper acknowledgement. END USER LICENCE AGREEMENT Unless another licence is stated on the immediately following page this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ You are free to copy, distribute and transmit the work Under the following conditions: Attribution: You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work). Non Commercial: You may not use this work for commercial purposes. No Derivative Works - You may not alter, transform, or build upon this work. Any of these conditions can be waived if you receive permission from the author. Your fair dealings and other rights are in no way affected by the above. Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact [email protected] providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Download date: 28. Sep. 2021 ISLAMIST RADICALISATION IN ITALY: MYTH OR NIGHTMARE? An Empirical Analysis of the Italian Case Study Michele Groppi, PhD Candidate, Defence Studies Programme, King’s College London Dissertation Supervisor: Dr. Warren Chin 2 ABSTRACT This doctoral dissertation weighs in on Olivier Roy’s and Stuart Croft’s diverging positions on Islamist radicalisation. To Roy and those aligned with his arguments, the phenomenon in question is a worrisome matter and should be treated accordingly. Conversely, as per Stuart Croft and those in line with his theories, fear over Islamist radicalisation is socially and culturally constructed to securitise Muslims and advance specific agendas. Applied to the Italian scenario, which position is ultimately right? Is Islamist radicalisation in Italy a myth, or is it Rome’s worst nightmare? In a keen effort to contribute to the existing discussion, we completed one of the largest quantitative and qualitative analyses in the field exploring Italian Muslims’ views on religiously framed violence. Providing our definition of “Islamist radicalisation”, we determined the presence of an “Islamist outlook” through data from hundreds of questionnaires and interviews/focus groups. Though it is no nightmare, our findings show Italy cannot deem itself immune to prospects of Islamist radicalisation either, for Roy’s argument fits the Italian scenario best. As such, we tested a large number of models linking support for violence with various predictor parameters stemming from the most accredited theories on the drivers of radicalisation. No statistically significant support was found for theories proposing discrimination, economic disparity, outrage at Western foreign policy, oppression of Muslim, or any standard sociological variable, including gender and being a convert to Islam, as predictors. Similarly, neither “traumatic experiences” nor rational choice theory was supported by the data. By contrast, the most significant predictor variables relating to support for violence were taking offense against offenders of Islam and the endorsement of an Islamic, theocratic form of government (ideology). Social difficulties were fairly significant. Geography, “networks”, frustration, and uncertainty as for the wish to belong to Italian culture (identity crisis) were marginally significant. 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgements……………………………………………………………………………………...9 Introduction…………………………………….…..……………...…………………………………..11 . The Choice of Roy and Croft…………………………………………………………………...13 . The Choice of Italy: Is the Country an “Exceptional” Case?…...…………………….………...15 . The Aim of the Study…………………………………………………………………………...17 . Major Clarifications…………………………………………………………………………….18 . A Brief Note on Methodology………………………………………………………………….20 . The Contribution of the Study………………………………………………………………….21 . The Structure of the Study ……………………………………………………………………..23 Chapter I: The Debate on Islamist Radicalisation in Italy……………….………………………...26 . Islamist Radicalisation in Italy: Exaggerating an Alleged Threat……..……………………….26 . Islamist Radicalisation in Italy: A Likely Worrisome Issue………...…………………….……32 Chapter II: The Debate on Radicalisation.……...…………………………………………………...41 . Islamist Radicalisation and its Potential, Discussed Relation to Terrorism: Two Juxtaposing Positions……………………..………………………………………………………………….41 . Roy’s Take on the Challenge of Islamist Radicalisation…….…………………………………41 . Croft’s Construction of the Islamist Radicalisation Threat…………………………………….55 Chapter III: The Study’s Conceptual Frameworks and Definitions ……………………………...68 . Conceptual Framing and Definitions of “Islamist” in the Literature…………………………...68 . The Study’s Conceptual Framework and Definition of “Islamist” …………………………….71 . Conceptual Framing and Definitions of “Radicalisation” in the Literature…………………….72 . The Study’s Reconceptualization of “Radicalisation” …………………………………………75 . The Study’s Definition of “Islamist Radicalisation” …………………………………………..76 Chapter IV: The Debate on Theories of Radicalisation.....…………………………………………79 . Grievances………………………………………………………………………………………81 o Social Level……………………………………………………………………………..81 o Political Level…………………………………………………………………………..85 o Psychological Level…………………………………………………………………….89 . Rational Factors………………………………………………………………………………...92 . Structural Factors……………………………………………………………………………….97 4 o Social Group and Personal Bonds………………………………………………………97 o Ideology……………………………………………………………………………….100 . Conversion and Gender Theories………………………..…………………………………….104 o Conversion Theories…………………….…………………………………………….104 o Gender Theories……………………………………………………………………….106 . Facilitating Factors…………………………………………………………………………….110 o Internet………………………………………………………………………………...110 o International Crises……………………………………………………………………111 o Prisons…………………………………………………………………………………111 o Diasporas………………………………………………………………………………113 o Other Social Centres…………………………………………………………………..113 . Critique of Theories of Islamist Radicalisation……………………………………………….114 . The Utility of the Literature Survey…………………………………………………………...119 Chapter V: The Study’s Methodology…....………………………………………………………...121 . Overview of the Italian Muslim Community………………………………………………….121 . The Study’s Restrictions and Challenges……………………………………………………...127 . The Study’s Sample…………………………………………………………………………...128 . The Quantitative Study’s Variables…………………………………………………………...130 . Statistical Methods…………………………………………………………………………….133 . Interview/Focus Group Questions…………………………………………………………….134 Chapter VI: Empirical Analysis and Roy vs. Croft………….………...…...……………………...136 . Roy vs. Croft: Who’s Right in Italy?.........................................................................................136 . Islamist Radicalisation in the Respondents’ Eyes……………………………………………..136 . The Search for an “Islamist Outlook”: Violence in the Name of God………………………...142 . The Duty to Punish Whoever Offends Islam and Its Prophet…………………………………144 . Views on Al Qaeda and ISIS………………………………………………………………….147 . Muslim and Non-Muslim Respondents’ Comparison on Religiously Framed Violence……..150 . Roy More Than Croft………………………………………………………………………….151 Chapter VII: Statistical Analysis of Assumed Causal Models of Islamist Radicalisation……....154 . Drivers of Islamist Radicalisation in the Respondents’ Eyes………………...……………….154 . The Testing of the Variables…………………………………………………….…………….159 . Insignificant Predictive Variables………………………………………………….………….160 5 . The Study’s Significant Variables…………………………………………………………….161 o The Duty to Punish Offenders of Islam……………………………………………….161 o Ideology……………………………………………………………………………….166 o Social Difficulties……………………………………………………………………..170 . The Study’s Marginally Significant Variables………………………………………………...172 o Geography……………………………………………………………………………..172 o Identity Crisis………………………………………………………………………….174 o Networks………………………………………………………………………………176 o Frustration……………………………………………………………………………..178 . Assessment…………………………………………………………………………………….180 Chapter VIII: Discussion.....….……………………………...………………………………………183 . Muslims’ and Non-Muslims’ Attitudes: Differing Perceptions……………………………….183 o Non-Muslims’ Views on Muslims’ Situation in Italy…………………………………183 o Non-Muslims’ Views on Muslims’ Attitudes Towards Violence…………………….184 o Non-Muslims’ Views on Muslims in Italy……………………………………………185 o Non-Muslims’ and Muslims’ Views on Future Issues of Security and Coexistence….186 o Assessment…………………………………………………………………………….187 . Muslim Leaders’ Perception of the Study……………………………………………………..188 Chapter IX: Conclusion…..……...….……………………………………………………………….190 . Future Research: Is Italy the Next France? …………………………………………………...192 Appendixes……………...…………………………………………………………………………….194 . Appendix 1…………………………………………………………………………………….194 . Appendix 2…………………………………………………………………………………….200 . Appendix 3…………………………………………………………………………………….205 . Appendix 4…………………………………………………………………………………….219 . Appendix 5…………………………………………………………………………………….224 . Appendix 6…………………………………………………………………………………….238 Bibliography………..........…………………………………………………………………………...256 6 LIST OF TABLES AND GRAPHS . Table 1. List of Jihadist-related attacks
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