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The 1984 Joint Economic Report Report Joint Economic Committee Congress of the United States February 1984 Economic Report of Th 98TH CONGRESS SENATE REPORT 2d Session I S 98-362 THE 1984 JOINT ECONOMIC REPORT REPORT OF THE JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES ON THE FEBRUARY 1984 ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT TOGETHER WITH ADDITIONAL VIEWS * MARCH 1 (legislative day, FEBRUARY 27), 1984.-Ordered to be printed Printed for the use of the Joint Economic Committee U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 30-460 0 WASHINGTON: 1984 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) SENATE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ROGER W. JEPSEN, Iowa, Chairman LEE H. HAMILTON, Indiana, Vice Chairman WILLIAM V. ROTH, JR., Delaware GILLIS W. LONG, Louisiana JAMES ABDNOR, South Dakota PARREN J. MITCHELL, Maryland STEVEN D. SYMMS, Idaho AUGUSTUS F. HAWKINS, California MACK MATTINGLY, Georgia DAVID R. OBEY, Wisconsin ALFONSE M. D'AMATO, New York JAMES H. SCHEUER, New York LLOYD BENTSEN, Texas CHALMERS P. WYLIE, Ohio WILLIAM PROXMIRE, Wisconsin MARJORIE S. HOLT, Maryland EDWARD M. KENNEDY, Massachusetts DANIEL E. LUNGREN, California PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland OLYMPIA J. SNOWE, Maine BRUCE R. BARTLETT, Executive Director JAMES K. GALBRAITH, Deputy Director CHARLES H. BRADFORD, Assistant Director RICHARD F. KAUFMAN, Assistant Director-GeneralCounsel (11) CHANGES IN ANNUAL GNP VELOCITY CHART 1.2 PERCENTAGE CHANGE 14.0 - 10.0. _ 6.0 - 2.0 l - 2.0 8 -6.0. -10.0 -14.0 -18.0 _ Il915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 , 1975 1985 Dashed lines show averagevelocitygrowth; (1915.40)= -0.4%, (1947-80)=3.6%, (1981- )= 1.0% VelocitydefinedasGNPdividedbyMlusingannualdata. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce and The Federal Reserve Board CONTENTS Page Chairman's introduction................................................................................................. 3 Vice chairman's introduction........................................................................................ 5 Republican views.............................................................................................................. 7 Democratic views .............................................................. 85 Current services budget estimates................................................................................ 157 (Ill) 98TH CONGRESS REPORT 2d Session SENATE 98-362 REPORT ON THE FEBRUARY 1984 ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT FEBRUARY 27, 1984-Ordered to be printed Mr. JEPSEN, from the Joint Economic Committee, submitted the following REPORT together with ADDITIONAL VIEWS [Pursuant to sec. 11(b)(3) of Public Law 304 (79th Cong.), as amended] This report is submitted in accordance with the requirement of the Employment Act of 1946 that the Joint Economic Committee file a report each year with the Senate and the House of Repre- sentatives containing its findings and recommendations with re- spect to each of the main recommendations made by the President in the Economic Report. This report is to serve as a guide to the several committees of Congress dealing with legislation relating to economic issues. 30-460 0 (l) CHAIRMAN'S INTRODUCTION ROGER W. JEPSEN, U.S.S. The economy rebounded rapidly in 1983. However, complacency breeds indifferent policies, and the economy is still at risk. We are out of the woods, but we are not home free. Failure to adhere to the initiatives that are fostering economic growth will plunge the Nation back into stagnation Most importantly, the monetary rollercoaster must be stopped. The Federal Reserve has failed badly in delivering the moderate monetary policy which the Administration requested three years ago. Short-run economic changes have been dominated by wild gy- rations in the money supply. The Federal Reserve either has the "pedal to the metal" or they are on the brake. Unless there is more stability from the Federal Reserve, even the most enlightened fiscal policies might only lead to an economic wasteland. The economy will enjoy a full recovery if we maintain tax relief, control the growth of Federal spending, and stabilize monetary policy. Recent tax legislation succeeded in reducing Federal tax revenues as a percentage of GNP in 1983 to the rate of taxation that existed in 1976 and 1977. Unfortunately, Federal spending in- creased significantly as a percentage of GNP during this period. The growth of government partly reflects the temporary effects of the recession. However, part of the problem lies with Congress' inability to control entitlement programs and its own appropri- ations process. Unless the growth of Federal spending is controlled more successfully in the future, the economy is unlikely to reach its full potential. Most would say that the economy was overtaxed in the mid- 1970's. Yet, there are some who argue today that tax increases are appropriate, even though Federal revenues now represent the same portion of GNP as in the mid-1970's. This argument overlooks the fact that tax relief has boosted productivity. Tax increases would jeopardize future improvements in productivity, employment, and economic well-being. Economic prospects naturally depend on policies other than Fed- eral spending and taxation. We must avoid protectionism, which is economic suicide. Four out of every five new jobs in manufacturing are in the export sector, and one-third of our agricultural output is sold overseas. Regulation still costs the country $100 billion a year. While the policies of the last three years have reduced the regulatory burden, more needs to be done. Also, many traditional farm programs have become counterpro- ductive. We need a new generation of farm policy that will better serve America and its farmers. We need to unleash agriculture's competitiveness and future potential. (3) 4 The prospects for economic expansion are excellent, but the po- tential dangers that we face are very real. The Republican Mem- bers of the Joint Economic Committee support and welcome general the thrust of the President's program, but recognize that the final responsibility for tax restraint, spending control, and even monetary policy lies with Congress. VICE CHAIRMAN'S INTRODUCTION LEE H. HAMILTON, M.C. Democratic Members of the Joint Economic Committee seek a re- covery which is sustained, balanced, and fair. In this Report, we present our alternative to the policies of the Reagan Administra- tion. We propose a full economic and budget plan. Our program would reduce the budget deficit by $200 billion over the next three years, and by $500 billion from 1985 through 1989. Our program is balanced. For every dollar of tax increases, we propose a dollar of spending reduction. Our program is fair. We preserve and strengthen social security and those domestic programs which most effectively promote America's industrial competitiveness. We support this Nation's tra- ditional compassion for the poor, the hungry, and the homeless. We propose no general tax increase on the middle class or the poor. Our tax proposals would instead broaden the tax base, and restore to the tax system a measure of fairness. Our program provides for a strong defense. We favor real in- creases in defense spending of 4 percent per year in each of the next five years. Given prudent management, and a commitment to diplomacy and to arms control, this would assure a strong and secure America in the years ahead. Our program recognizes a need to review all aspects of the non- means-tested entitlement programs. Specifically, we propose to con- trol the rapidly rising cost of health care. Above all, our program would sustain real economic growth and move toward full employment. We would help keep America's com- mitment to provide jobs to all who seek them, along with reason- ably stable prices. Like the 1981 Reagan program itself, ours is a comprehensive program. We need something more than a deficit "down payment." Action is needed in 1984 to cure our problems. It will not be easier in 1985 than it is today. The Democrats on the Joint Economic Committee propose a pro- gram which meets a national need. We call on the Administration and Congress to move promptly to put our economy on a path of sustainable, fair, and balanced growth. (5) REPUBLICAN VIEWS ON THE FEBRUARY 1984 ECONOMIC REPUBLICAN VIEWS ON THE FEBRUARY 1984 ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT (7) CONTENTS Page 1. The economic outlook ................................................................... .............. 11 Prospects for a protracted recovery.............................................................. 12 Monetary policy ............................................................ 14 The 1984 monetary targets............................................................................. 18 I1. Federal deficits and fiscal policy........................................................................ 22 The economic risks associated with projected Federal deficits ................ 22 How real are the projected deficits? ............................................................ 23 The role of economic growth in alleviating the deficit problem ......... .... 24 The role of tax reform ................... .......................................... 24 The role of spending cuts ............................................................ 25 Gaining control of Federal spending ............................................................ 27 Conclusion.......................................................................................................... 30 III. Tax reform ............................................................
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