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AAR Chapter 11 Go back to opening screen 717 Chapter 11 Climate Change, Ozone, and Ultraviolet Radiation –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– Contents 11.5.1.2. UV effects on terrestrial ecosystems . 751 11.1. Introduction . 717 11.5.1.2.1. Dwarf shrubs, mosses, and lichens 751 11.5.1.2.2. Decomposition . 751 11.2. Climate change. 718 11.5.1.2.3. Animals. 752 11.2.1. Dynamic interactions . 718 11.5.2. Aquatic ecosystems . 752 11.2.1.1. Energy balance . 718 11.5.2.1. Climate change and marine ecosystems. 752 11.2.1.2. Trace gas balance . 719 11.5.2.1.1. Marine fish . 752 11.2.1.3. Hydrological cycle . 719 11.5.2.1.2. Larger animals . 752 11.2.2. Climate change: Methods of assessment and recent trends 720 11.5.2.2. Photochemical effects of UV – 11.2.2.1. Temperature records . 720 Dissolved organic matter. 752 11.2.2.2. Radiatively important trace substances . 723 11.5.2.3. UV and marine ecosystem. 753 11.2.2.3. Water vapor . 723 11.5.2.3.1. Primary producers . 754 11.2.2.4. Precipitation . 723 11.5.2.3.2. Bacteria . 755 11.2.2.5. Hydroclimatology . 725 11.5.2.3.3. Zooplankton. 755 11.2.2.6. Sea ice. 725 11.5.2.3.4. Invertebrates . 755 11.2.2.7. Vegetation . 725 11.5.2.3.5. Fish populations . 755 11.2.2.8. Soils and permafrost . 726 11.5.2.3.6. Larger animals . 755 11.2.2.9. Glaciers and ice sheets. 726 11.5.2.4. Climate change and Arctic freshwater. 755 11.2.2.10. Ice and sediment cores . 726 11.5.2.4.1. Climate change and Arctic lakes 11.2.2.10.1. Ice cores . 726 and ponds. 755 11.2.2.10.2. Paleoecological records . 727 11.5.2.4.2. Climate change and rivers and streams 756 11.2.2.11. Historical and archaeological evidence . 728 11.5.2.5. UV and Arctic freshwater . 756 11.2.3. Ability to predict . 728 11.2.4. Components of the Arctic . 729 11.6. Effects of climate change and UV radiation on Arctic peoples 757 11.2.4.1. Oceanic regime . 729 11.6.1. Pre-historical and historical effects of climate change . 757 11.2.4.1.1. Ocean stratification and water 11.6.2. Settlement and resource use . 757 circulation. 729 11.6.3. Economic activities . 758 11.2.4.1.2. Sea ice. 730 11.6.3.1. Commercial fisheries. 758 Leads and polynyas . 730 11.6.3.2. Reindeer herding. 758 Snow cover . 731 11.6.3.3. Transportation . 758 Melt ponds . 731 11.6.3.4. Forestry. 758 11.2.4.2. Terrestrial regime . 731 11.6.3.5. Agriculture . 759 11.2.4.2.1. Soil . 731 11.6.4. Effects of UV radiation on human health. 759 11.2.4.2.2. Permafrost . 731 11.7. International efforts . 759 11.2.4.2.3. Runoff . 732 11.7.1. Agreements . 759 11.2.4.2.4. Snow . 732 11.7.2. Programs . 760 11.2.4.2.5. Terrestrial ecosystems – Physical 11.7.3. Assessments . 760 properties . 733 11.7.3.1. Climate change . 760 11.2.4.2.6. Arctic glaciers and ice sheets . 733 11.7.3.2. Ozone and UV . 760 11.2.4.3. Atmospheric regime . 734 11.8. Conclusions and recommendations . 761 11.2.4.3.1. Atmospheric structure and components 734 11.8.1. Climate change: Conclusions . 761 Temperature . 734 11.8.2. Climate change: Recommendations . 761 Surface winds . 734 11.8.3. Ozone: Conclusions . 761 Clouds . 735 11.8.4. Ozone: Recommendations . 761 11.2.4.3.2. Radiatively important trace substances 735 11.8.5. UV: Conclusions . 761 Carbon dioxide . 736 11.8.6. UV: Recommendations . 762 Methane (CH4) . 736 11.8.7. Climate change and UV effects on ecosystems: Conclusions 762 Carbon monoxide . 736 11.8.8. Climate change and UV effects on ecosystems: Nitrous oxide (N2O) . 736 Recommendations . 762 Chloroflourocarbons (CFCs) . 737 11.8.9. Climate change and UV effects on humans: Conclusions 762 Water vapor . 737 11.8.10. Climate change and UV effects on humans: Aerosols . 737 Recommendations . 762 Tropospheric ozone . 738 Acknowledgments . 762 11.3. Arctic stratospheric ozone . 739 11.3.1. Arctic stratospheric ozone . 739 References . 763 11.3.2. Chemistry of ozone depletion – Polar vortex dynamics . 739 11.3.3. Measurements of stratospheric ozone . 740 11.3.4. Results of measurements . 740 11.3.5. Arctic ozone anomalies . 742 11.1. Introduction 11.3.5.1. Type 1 Arctic ozone anomaly . 742 11.3.5.2. Type 2 Arctic ozone anomaly . 744 Global climate change is a growing concern, especially in 11.4. UV radiation . 744 Arctic regions where increases in temperature from anthro- 11.4.1. Measurements . 745 pogenic influences could be considerably higher than the 11.4.2. Modeling . 746 11.4.3. Biologically relevant UV. 746 global average. Climatic changes are not new to the Arctic 11.4.3.1. Spectral considerations . 746 or its peoples. Indigenous peoples of the far north have 11.4.3.2. Geometrical considerations. 746 adapted to the austere climate; different groups have found 11.4.4. UV on land . 747 11.4.5. UV penetration in aquatic systems . 748 their own unique ways to harvest food and provide clothing, 11.5. Effects of climate change and UV radiation on the biosphere 749 tools, and shelter. At times the climate has warmed or cooled 11.5.1. Terrestrial ecosystems . 749 relatively suddenly and people have either adapted, moved, 11.5.1.1. Climate change effects on terrestrial ecosystems 749 or died off. The paleo-archaeological record, indigenous 11.5.1.1.1. Vegetation. 749 Plant communities . 749 peoples’ oral history, and historical documents provide evi- Nutrient availability . 750 dence of climatic changes for thousands of years. Today, Permafrost and vegetation . 750 people of the Arctic, whether they continue to live close to Water stress . 750 11.5.1.1.2. Invertebrates . 750 the land or live in urban centers, must again confront rapid 11.5.1.1.3. Vertebrates . 750 changes in climate. Various records over the last 40 years 718 AMAP Assessment Report confirm that the rate of global warming has been greatest dressed. Little effort has been expended to study the effects over Eurasia and North America between 40°N and 70°N of UV on the Arctic biosphere, including human health, al- (IPCC 1996a). Arctic research substantiates these observa- though the International Arctic Science Committee con- tions through direct and indirect indicators of climate change. cluded in 1995 that ‘There is a pressing need to quantify Sea ice, snow cover, glaciers, tundra, permafrost, boreal for- ozone-dependent UV-B effects on diverse Arctic ecosystems ests, and peatlands are all responsive to subtle variations in under their current conditions.’ sunlight, surface temperature, ocean heat transport, air and This chapter provides an overview of current research ocean chemistry, and aerosols in the atmosphere. Compared and knowledge on climate change, ozone depletion, and with the rest of the globe, the Arctic climate is very sensitive UV-B radiation in the Arctic. After this brief introduction, to change because of a complex series of interactions and the second section gives an overview of climate change, in- positive feedback processes among the region’s oceanic and cluding evidence and measurements of climate change as atmospheric circulation patterns, temperature regime, hy- well as what is known about the various components of the drologic cycle, and sea ice formation (Barry et al. 1993a, climate change system in the Arctic. Section three addresses Kellogg 1983, Mysak 1995). stratospheric ozone, and section four covers UV radiation in Present models of the Arctic climate system suggest that the Arctic. The general effects of climate change and UV ra- positive feedbacks in high-latitude systems amplify anthro- diation on aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems are examined pogenically-induced atmospheric changes and that distur- in section five, and section six examines their effects on Arc- bances in the circumpolar Arctic climate may substantially tic peoples and their communities. Section seven provides an influence global climate (IPCC 1990a, 1992a, 1996a). The overview of major international programs involving research extreme sensitivity of the Arctic’s climatic and ecological and assessments. Recommendations for further international systems implies that the Arctic will be profoundly affected efforts are made in section eight. by anthropogenic climate change (Quadfasel et al. 1991, Walsh 1991). Both positive and negative feedbacks compli- cate Arctic climate change, making it difficult to model or 11.2. Climate change predict. A number of different positive feedbacks have been 11.2.1. Dynamic interactions identified for the Arctic. For example, sea ice and snow re- flect a much larger fraction of incident sunlight than water The complexity of climate change in the Arctic can be ob- and soil, so that a reduction of sea ice and snow causes a served through the strong and dynamic changes in the en- perturbation in the energy budget, amplifying warming in ergy, trace gas and hydrological balances of the Arctic. Solar the Arctic. This warming is transferred globally and, at the radiation inside the Arctic Circle varies seasonally from con- same time, feeds back regionally to further reduce snow and tinuous sunlight to no sunlight. Depending on ambient con- ice extent. Concurrently, as temperature rises the air is able ditions, the Arctic can be either a source or a sink of particu- to hold more moisture which increases the greenhouse ef- lar trace gases.
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