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Climate Change in the Post-Soviet Space

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Climate Change in the Post-Soviet Space ISPI DOSSIER April 2021 CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE POST-SOVIET SPACE edited by Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti CLIMATEUNRAVELLING CHANGE THE SAHEL: IN THE STATE, POST-SOVIET POLITICS AND SPACE ARMED VIOLENCE MarchApril 2021 2021 ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES everal post-Soviet states are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Furthermore, two of the worst environmental disasters of our times – the Chernobyl Snuclear accident and the Aral Sea desertification – happened in the post-Soviet region, with implications that have crossed state and time boundaries. This dossier highlights the major environmental and climate-change-related crises affecting the area and the diverse national and regional approaches to tackle them. What is the approach of Russia — one the biggest energy producers and polluters in the world — with regards to climate change? Can transboundary crises spur regional cooperation in the South Caucasus and Central Asia? What is the role of civil society in holding governments accountable in this domain? * Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti is a research fellow at the Russia, Caucasus and Central Asia Centre at ISPI. Her areas of interest include Russian foreign policy, EU-Russia and Russia-Turkey relations, and EU neighbourhood policies (especially with Eastern neighbours). She is a member of WIIS (Women in International Security), an international network dedicated to increasing the influence of women in the field of foreign and defence policy. | 2 CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE POST-SOVIET SPACE April 2021 ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES Table of Contents 1. TIME TO TALK CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE POST-SOVIET REGION Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti (ISPI) 2. WHAT DOES THE GREEN DEAL MEAN FOR RUSSIA? Elena Maslova (MGIMO) 3. OIL AND NATURAL GAS EXPLOITATION IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC Maria Morgunova (UPPSALA UNIVERSITY) 4. DECARBONIZATION AND ENERGY TRANSITION: THE NEED TO DIVERSIFY RUSSIA’S ECONOMY Angelina Davydova (JOURNALIST) 5. FROM THE BOTTOM UP: RUSSIAN ENVIRONMENTAL CIVIL SOCIETY GROUPS Maria Chiara Franceschelli (SCUOLA NORMALE SUPERIORE; FLORENCE) 6. THE ARAL SEA DISASTER AND IMPLICATIONS FOR REGIONALISM IN CENTRAL ASIA Stefanos Xenarios (NAZARBAYEV UNIVERSITY) 7. A GREENER BRI IN CENTRAL ASIA? Giulia Sciorati (ISPI and UNIVERSITY OF TRENTO) 8. CAN CLIMATE CHANGE TRIGGER COOPERATION IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS? Nika Chitadze (INTERNATIONAL BLACK SEA UNIVERSITY) | 3 CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE POST-SOVIET SPACE April 2021 ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES limate change - or climate crisis, as some media outlets relabelled it - is Cincreasingly getting attention from governments and civil societies worldwide. The words and actions of high-profile activists such Time to Talk Climate as Greta Thunberg and organisations such as Change in the the EU - which launched the Green Deal, an ambitious plan to achieve carbon neutrality by Post-Soviet Region 2030, and embraced a green foreign policy - contributed to this trend. But it was probably the links between climate change and the Covid-19 Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti pandemic that most aroused concerns. While ISPI there is still no evidence linking climate change to the spread of Covid-19, scientists stress that climate change alters how humans relate to other species, hence heightening the risks for the emergence of infectious diseases. There is also growing debate around the need to design holistic economic measures to address the rising inequalities caused by climate change and the pandemic. Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti is a Research Fellow at the Russia, Caucasus and Central Asia Centre at ISPI. | 5 COMMENTARY The post-Soviet region is no stranger to these Yet, Maslova claims that the status of a “green global discussions about the environment. and a responsible player” may contribute to This dossier does a great job highlighting the enhancing Russia’s global status, while a EU- major environmental and climate-change- Russia green dialogue has the potential to offer related crises affecting the area and the diverse a platform for the normalisation of relations approaches (or lack thereof) to tackle them. (“win-win strategy”) in areas such as science and technology, as well as civil society and business. ALL EYES ON RUSSIA Angelina Davydova also highlights Russia’s When talking about environmental issues in need to diversify the economy, including the post-Soviet space, all eyes are on Russia, decarbonising its energy sector, as more given its geopolitical and energy importance. and more countries decide to follow a zero- The country is one of the biggest energy emission path. Yet, she argues that political producers and exporters globally - and one elites and companies, including major fossil fuel of the biggest polluters, emitting 1,617 million producers, still perceive climate change as a metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions per distant and long-term risk. Decarbonisation year. Recent disasters in northern Siberia, such and clean energy strategies are largely as the June 2020 oil spill - with over 21,000 tons insufficient, despite Russia’s huge physical and of diesel spilt into the Arctic Ocean, making it economic potential in renewable energy. one of the largest oil spills in Russian history - or the July wildfires burning down an area larger Russia’s dependence on its energy exports is a than Greece, made headlines. Meanwhile, the common explanation for the Kremlin’s interest recent release of the HBO series Chernobyl - in the Arctic, which hosts an estimated 22% of based on the worst nuclear accident in history Earth’s undiscovered oil and natural gas and is - reopened old scars in many Russian citizens projected to be a major driver for geopolitical and sparked a fierce political debate on both competition. Maria Morgunova offers a nuclear safety and political freedoms, to the nuanced picture of Russia’s ambitions and point that Russian state TV decided to make its actual constraints in the Arctic. She claims own version of the series. that the region will stay among the Kremlin’s top geostrategic priorities but questions the Elena Maslova kicks off the discussion by role of oil&gas as a backbone of the Russian emphasising Russia’s paradox of being an strategy. Indeed, Morgunova lists a set of issues active participant in the global environmental hindering Russian ambitions when it comes agenda while facing both a severely to resources’ exploration and exploitation: the deteriorating environmental situation at home need for new technical approaches and huge and economic overreliance on oil&gas exports. investments is matched by a reality of harsh TIME TO TALK CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE POST-SOVIET REGION | 6 COMMENTARY climate conditions, remoteness, Western Furthermore, a joint “water-energy-food- sanctions, absence of infrastructure and, most climate approach” can spur economic growth importantly, offshore ice conditions in the Arctic, and water supplies safety for the whole region. despite the impact of global climate change Several factors can hinder regional cooperation, on the Arctic’s ice cover. Not to mention the though. One of them is external actors. Giulia serious environmental concerns that come with Sciorati claims that in Central Asia, China's an oil&gas-centred approach. Such concerns role as the main external economic actor are taken increasingly seriously by Russia’s civil through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) society. Maria Chiara Franceschelli explains risks aggravating existing environmental that, despite climate change not being a crucial challenges. China’s projects in Central Asia topic in Russian public debate, environmental imply expanding transport infrastructures by sentiments are growing within civil society. land, while its regional energy projects continue However, most Russian ecological groups to be mainly based on coal, oil, and gas. Hence, need to compromise with the political she concludes, China’s aim to build greener power to carry out their activities, hence societies has not fully travelled along the BRI. failing to convert discontent and criticism into sharp actions that can really challenge Another stumbling block for regional the government’s strongly resource-oriented cooperation is intra-regional conflicts. This model. has been the case for Central Asia, though today it applies mainly to the South Caucasus. REGIONAL CRISES FOSTERING After reviewing the three South Caucasian REGIONAL COOPERATION? countries’ poor record on environmental Climate change and environmental degradation policies, Nika Chitadze remarks that only affect most post-Soviet states. Some of today’s the end of hostilities between Azerbaijan worst ecological disasters have deep roots and Armenia can lay the foundations for and implications transcending state borders. cooperation on environmental protection The desertification of the Aral Sea, for instance, issues at the regional level. He points at was caused by the Soviet heavy industrialisation Georgia’s possible role as a mediator and the of the agriculture sector in Central Asia and EU as a driver for change through its Eastern still has a dramatic impact on all of the Partnership Programme, which includes all the five Central Asian republics. As Stefanos three South Caucasus countries. Xenarios explains, a regional approach on Notwithstanding the severe environmental water conservation, agricultural policy and challenges facing the post-Soviet region, the water priorities is the only possible answer to time is ripe for the beginning of a serious the
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