WMHSMUN XXXIV

Hong Kong Independence Movement 2050

Background Guide

“Unprecedented committees. Unparalleled debate. Unmatched fun.” Letter From the Director

Dear Delegates,

As strange of a year it has been, it is my pleasure to welcome you to WHMSMUN XXXIV as the director of the Hong Kong Independence Movement, 2050. My name is Jeronica Tran, but I go by Nica, and I am a first-year student at the College of William and Mary. I plan to major in philosophy and later pursue law school.

It is an honor for me to be here with you all at WMHSMUN, easily one of the best I have ever been a part of. However, I am also very biased on that. My passion for Model UN came in high school. I am a painfully extroverted person, so I instantly fell in love with the collaborative aspects of conferences. It was an amazing experience to connect with people from all over the world who were so passionate and driven. I hope that you can find that kind of feeling here.

As your director, I expect that you take the opportunity to embody a completely different person. This is a committee based on creativity, it would be an absolute shame for you not to take advantage of that. I see our committee as the blend between international politics and theater. The more you act in your roles, the better the experience will be. I hope that you can embrace this essential aspect of committee

If you have any questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to contact me.

Nica Tran [email protected] Background Guide – Hong Kong Independence Movement

Introduction

Background

In 1997, the region of Hong Kong was transferred to China from the United Kingdom after 156 years of British control.1 This was a result of the Sino-British Joint Declaration, a treaty signed between the United Kingdom and China stipulating the sovereign and administrative arrangement of Hong Kong after 1997, when the lease of the New Territories was set to expire.2 This transfer immediately and severely affected Hong Kong’s previously prosperous economic state. These financial crises were further magnified by various epidemics such as the Avian flu outbreak and the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) outbreak.3 This was said to be due to China’s failures in use of the “One Country, Two Systems” principle. In true practice, China’s “One Country, Two Systems” principle declares that Special Administrative Regions (SAR) can continue to have its own governmental system, legal, economic and financial affairs, including trade relations with foreign countries, independent from Mainland China.4 Debate and protest did not begin until Beijing began to try and influence Hong Kong’s government. The Mainland started to use the region’s finances to fund projects such as implementing Chinese Nationalist ideals into Hong Kong education and a direct railway from Beijing to Hong Kong.5 Hong Kong feared that China would soon overtake them completely, so they successfully rejected and protested these projects. 2014 marked the start of the Hong Kong Independence Movement when the Mainland’s congress set a restriction on Hong Kong’s ability to elect their Chief Executive due to previous pushback from Hong Kong. This restriction made it so that candidates had to be screened by a Beijing-controlled nominating committee before entering the election.6 That infringement on Hong Kong’s rights as a SAR prompted their most historic protest: a 79-day protest named the “Umbrella Revolution”.7 Following that failure of the “One Country, Two Systems” principle, more controversies rose as China continued to encroach on Hong Kong. In 2019, Hong Kong held one of its largest protests to date, protesting an amendment bill from China that would allow the extradition of fugitives to mainland China.8 Hong Kong’s 2024 protest was its largest to date. This protest changed the way China and Hong Kong would interact. In 2024, China put further restrictions over Hong Kong’s government in attempts to silence the independence movement and keep Hong Kong within its grasps. The protest, dubbed the “Phoenix Rain Revolution”, reached an end after 189 days. This treacherous 189 days resulted in a promise that

2 Background Guide – Hong Kong Independence Movement amendments would be made to the Sino-British Joint Declaration, allowing freedoms after the agreement is said to end in 2047. It took about 8 years to get that debate into office and within those 8 years, China increased restrictions over Hong Kong’s government. And for 10 stalling years after that, it seemed that this empty promise had silenced the independence movement.

Modern Day

It is now 2050, 3 years after the Sino-British Joint Declaration was said to end. The Hong Kong Independence Movement has gained huge traction since its start. In 2020, it was supported by about 17% of Hong Kong’s population and opposed by over 50% of the population.9 Now over 75% of the population support Hong Kong’s complete independence while less than 10% oppose this. After 18 years of nothing promised, the independence movement took a swift turn and developed into an organized movement with community leaders all around Hong Kong and scheduled meetings/government protests. This strengthened movement has typically been peaceful, posing little to no threat to China itself (other than the secession of Hong Kong). It is now at the strongest it has ever been in 30 years. The movement has helped in the attempt to reform the Hong Kong government and revisit Sino-British Joint Declaration. China is losing its grasp over the region.

Hong Kong Plans to Secede From China

There is word that if the Hong Kong government does not push back against China and break off as an independent nation, the independence movement will overtake the government and fight against China. Over the years, the movement has grown to develop both a bigger, stronger national and international presence. Within their some of their organizations are now militias that are said to be more powerful than the Hong Kong Police Force. Tensions grow the longer China waits to amend the Sino-British Joint Declaration. More and more protests have begun to break out over the past 3 years. Those protests have grown more and more violent. The impending threat of war has interested the support of aerospace companies, most notably SpaceX and Boeing, seeing this as an opportunity to get to the top of their industries. This kind of support for the movement means two possible outcomes: a war in which China has the opportunity to themself as the strongest world power or Hong Kong proves its worth as an independent nation or a peaceful negotiation.

3 Background Guide – Hong Kong Independence Movement

Hong Kong is becoming a stronger region every day. As the movement grows, so does the region’s ability to act as an independent nation. China has implemented and increased military around Hong Kong. Even though they call for peace between China and Hong Kong, nations are flocking to sides. All Hong Kong has to do now is come up with a comprehensive, peaceful way of deliberating this with China. Hong Kong’s independence is no longer a pipe dream and may threaten China’s political position in Asia.

Questions to Consider

1. What adjustments could and would be made on the Sino-British Joint Declaration? Would those changes be enough? 2. What would be the most peaceful, effective way for Hong Kong to secede China? Should they secede China at all? 3. Does Hong Kong have the means and ability to successfully secede from China? What would happen if it falls after seceding? What would happen to China if Hong Kong does succeed? 4. Is there a true threat of war? If so, are the countries joining truly concerned with Hong Kong’s succession or are there ulterior motives? If not, what is the potential and effect of China completely invading Hong Kong?

Additional Resources

1. Little, Becky. “How Hong Kong Came Under 'One Country, Two Systems' Rule.” History.com, A&E Television Networks, 3 Sept. 2019, www.history.com/news/hong-kong-china-great-britain. This source gives a great, in-depth look into Hong Kong’s transition from British rule to Chinese sovereignty. It describes the Sino-British Joint Declaration and what it truly did for all parties. Most importantly, it details the aftermath of this transfer and the negative effects it had on Hong Kong, especially economically.

2. “Hong Kong Profile - Timeline.” BBC News, BBC, 24 June 2019, www.bbc.com/news/world-asia- pacific-16526765. A quick and easy timeline for all of the important dates throughout Hong Kong’s history. It starts in 1842, the time China gave it to the United Kingdom, and ends in 2019, the latest Hong Kong protests. It does not give you details but it provides a baseline if you are confused about when and where events start.

4 Background Guide – Hong Kong Independence Movement

Dossier

Jian Zhuang, Chief Executive of Hong Kong The current leader of Hong Kong. They understand the influence of the movement but are controlled/restricted by China. Because of their diplomatic position, they fear that secession may not be successful and look more for peace. This peace could be found in adjustments to agreements between China and Hong Kong, getting transferred under another nation’s control, etc. They are being protested by the movement and their people for not speaking for the majority and actively rejecting China’s infringements on Hong Kong. Their power over the people has been undermined by the leaders of the movement, so now they must attempt to take control. The potential of them getting thrown out of office if the movement is successful is high unless they act now.

Guang Tao, Chief Secretary (for Administration) of Hong Kong As the second highest ranking official, they are also under the restrictions of China. As the individual that creates and implements government policy, they reject China’s constant infringements on Hong Kong’s rights. However, they also criticize the movement for its protests and civil disobedience. They believe that the movement may do more harm than good if they continue to act and that the movement should be peaceful and silent. They plan to work with the Chief Executive in negotiating and deliberating with China. It is unsure of whether or not they would keep their position if secession occurs.

Lei Yuan, Financial Secretary of Hong Kong This individual is responsible for all economic and financial matters of Hong Kong. They are very influenced by the movement after seeing strong economic growth from the movement. However, they cannot do more than promote and foster this growth as they are still restricted by China. They are convinced that now is the time to secede before China takes control over this financial situation or they lose it due to war. It is almost certain that they will keep their seat if a secession occurs.

Bai Sui-lang, Secretary for Justice of Hong Kong The Secretary for Justice is the chief legal advisor to the Chief Executive and the chief law enforcement officer of the Government of Hong Kong. They openly reject the independence movement and call for its disbandment. They have worked in attempts to further mobilize the Hong Kong Police Force alongside the

5 Background Guide – Hong Kong Independence Movement

People’s Liberation Army. They believe that a secession will lead to complete failure and that China must continue as Hong Kong’s sovereign country in order to survive.

Huan Tsang, Commissioner of the Hong Kong Police Working directly alongside the Secretary for Justice, this individual believes the same exact things. They feel that the power of the Hong Kong Police has been severely undermined and wish to collaborate with the People’s Liberation Army in order to take back complete control of Hong Kong. After losing most of the power that the Hong Kong Police Force had, they plan to use excessive force, brutality and violence in putting down the movement.

Zhong Xu, President of China The President of China fears that they may lose Hong Kong for good if they do not act now. They believe that they need to use any means necessary to take back Hong Kong, especially now because of its economic prosperity. They do not want to go to war because they know countries will join to take down China as a world superpower but will take Hong Kong by force if they must. They see that there will be no end to the movement unless they completely overtake Hong Kong; therefore, they do not believe an agreement can be made unless it benefits China more than it does Hong Kong and if the movement is completely destroyed.

Chun Pei-tsun, Premier of China This individual is responsible for organizing and implementing civil bureaucracy. They feel the same as the President, but stronger. They believe that there may be no way to remedy the situation unless Hong Kong becomes a complete region of China. Allowing Hong Kong to reach agreement or to secede will severely undermine China’s power and sovereignty in their eyes. They recognize the economic importance of Hong Kong and want to take control of that.

Fu Kai-shek, China’s Chairman of the Central Military Commission As the command and control of the People’s Liberation Army, they have been the only Chinese leader to have had direct effect in Hong Kong. They have been able to work in hand with Hong Kong’s Secretary of Justice and Police Commissioner. They plan to overtake any militias and call for the complete disbandment of the movement. However, they do believe that China and Hong Kong can make adjustments and reach a successful agreement in order to prevent any damage.

6 Background Guide – Hong Kong Independence Movement

Quincy Saunders, Prime Minister of the U.K They formerly believed that China must uphold the Sino-British Joint Agreement. However, that agreement was meant to last 50 years. Therefore, the Prime Minister supports the succession of Hong Kong because this legally binding international treaty ended in 2047. In order to aid in Hong Kong’s succession, they plan to open a path that would allow Hong Kong residents direct citizenship into the United Kingdom. However, they do not support any potential war between the two parties and will only act as a peaceful aid.

Charlie Fletcher, Head of the British Armed Forces No matter the devastation, the Head of the British Armed Forces maintains the position that they will not aid in any violence or war between the two parties. They will only aid in helping rebuild the seceded Hong Kong or allowing Hong Kong residents into the United Kingdom. If there was not a threat of war, they would support the United Kingdom taking control of Hong Kong until it can become successfully independent.

Park Song-thaek, North Korea’s Minister of Foreign Affairs North Korea fully supports China in its sovereignty over Hong Kong and condemns the movement. They believe that China must maintain both it and Hong Kong’s stability and prosperity as one nation. However, they are concerned about the foreign interference that will occur if issues escalate. They will not get involved regardless.

Chia-Jung Ou, President of Taiwan As a nation independent of but not recognized by China, Taiwan fully supports the secession and independence of Hong Kong. They see the “One Country, Two Systems” principle as a threat to Taiwan’s own autonomy and democracy. They would graciously open up their country to allow refugees from Hong Kong and would openly aid in Hong Kong’s secession. This is part in fear that China’s sovereignty over Hong Kong may undermine Taiwan’s future autonomy as China has attempted to control Taiwan with the “One Country, Two Systems” principle before.

Yuri Hano, Prime Minister of Japan The Prime Minister of Japan criticizes China for encroaching on Hong Kong and undermining the true principle of “One Country, Two Systems”. They will support China as their largest, most personal ally. However, they caution China over this issue, expressing that it is for Hong Kong to be free and open under China’s sovereignty.

7 Background Guide – Hong Kong Independence Movement

Nagisa Fujioka, Japan’s Minister of Defense This individual agrees with all of the Prime Minister’s points but will try their hardest to not join China in war. They understand the importance of this ally and will support them. However, they will not incite violence alongside China unless it is absolutely necessary (i.e. their own country is threatened, a country against Japan joins Hong Kong).

Jourdain Pascal, United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Their job is to advise the United Nations Secretary-General on peace/security and to oversee peacemaking and preventive diplomacy. They hope to prevent war between China and Hong Kong. They also plan to send peacekeepers to Hong Kong to ensure that the movement stays peaceful. If and when China and Hong Kong deliberate over agreements, they will be at the forefront. They also believe that it is best that Hong Kong secede from China as the Sino-British Joint Declaration ended 3 years ago.

Alex Huang, United Nations Executive Secretary of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific They are meant to aid in creating economic policy recommendations, specifically working to increase economic activity in Asia and foster economic relations with other regions. They have been aiding Hong Kong in growing economically, especially with other regions. However, they do not believe that Hong Kong is economically or politically ready to secede from China. They believe that it may be necessary for Hong Kong to stay under control of another country, just not China.

Cameron Drewes, United States President Although the United States is still a world superpower, it has fallen greatly in comparison to nations such as China. By supporting China as an ally, they could attempt their comeback in the potential war. A war would allow the United States to once again demonstrate its power and would stimulate its economy. However, the nation itself is in shambles, politically and economically. So, the president must decide if they are strong enough to aid China and if the potential payoff is worth the damage that might be done.

Robin Goleman, Boeing’s Chief Executive Officer There has been more need and competition for aerospace products. After Boeing’s stock and abilities went down around 2020, it was necessary for the company to find a way to get back to the top. Right now, its top competitor is SpaceX. Boeing’s CEO believes that the only way for Boeing to further succeed is to aid in war.

8 Background Guide – Hong Kong Independence Movement

Peyton Morris, Boeing’s Chief Financial Officer In order to expand Boeing’s finances, they have been aiding the movement by supplying the militias with equipment necessary for violent secession and the government with technology that has/will cause more economic growth. This will cause more nations to work with Hong Kong, which in turn will work with Boeing. Therefore, Boeing will already have its hand in the war if it happens, beating out all other competitors.

Micah LaFarree, SpaceX’s Chief Executive Officer SpaceX has been one of the top aerospace companies since its birth. Its CEO believes that space exploration is not advancing the company enough. After studying the effect of the world wars, they believe that war is the next step in changing the field of aerospace. They already have a hand in China’s technology, but plan to work all sides of the potential war.

Kai Holcomb, SpaceX’s Chief Financial Officer They believe that involving SpaceX in war will allow the company to grow into the political realm. This would expand the company’s stock, influence, and ability to further advance technology. They are also in support of a war and plan to work all sides of it.

Notes

1 Dapiran, Antony. City of Protest: A Recent History of Dissent in Hong Kong. Penguin Books, 2017. 2 MacIntyre, Thomas S. “Impact of the Sino-British Agreement on Hong Kong's Economic Future.” University of Pennsylvania Journal of International Law, vol. 7, no. 2, 1985, pp. 197-216. 3 Eleanor, Albert, and Maizland Lindsay. “Democracy in Hong Kong.” Council on Foreign Relations, Council on Foreign Relations, 30 June 2020, www.cfr.org/backgrounder/democracy-hong-kong. 4 Ibid. 5 Bush, Richard C. “How Hong Kong Got to This Point.” Brookings, Brookings, 25 Nov. 2019, www.brookings.edu/blog/order- from-chaos/2019/09/12/how-hong-kong-got-to-this-point/. 6 Ibid. 7 Ibid. 8 TIME Staff. “Hong Kong Protest Anniversary: What’s Changed.” Time, Time, 9 June 2020, https://time.com/5849919/hong- kong-protests-anniversary-independence/. 9 Ibid.

9