Modeling Hydrochemical and Vegetation Responses of High-Elevation Forested Watersheds to Future Climate and Atmospheric Deposition
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The University of Southern Mississippi The Aquila Digital Community Dissertations Spring 5-1-2021 Modeling Hydrochemical and Vegetation Responses of High- elevation Forested Watersheds to Future Climate and Atmospheric Deposition Changes in the Southeastern U.S. Hailong Huang Follow this and additional works at: https://aquila.usm.edu/dissertations Part of the Forest Management Commons, Other Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Commons, and the Other Forestry and Forest Sciences Commons Recommended Citation Huang, Hailong, "Modeling Hydrochemical and Vegetation Responses of High-elevation Forested Watersheds to Future Climate and Atmospheric Deposition Changes in the Southeastern U.S." (2021). Dissertations. 1890. https://aquila.usm.edu/dissertations/1890 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by The Aquila Digital Community. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations by an authorized administrator of The Aquila Digital Community. For more information, please contact [email protected]. MODELING HYDROCHEMICAL AND VEGETATION RESPONSES OF HIGH- ELEVATION FORESTED WATERSHEDS TO FUTURE CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC DEPOSITION CHANGES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. by Hailong Huang A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate School, the College of Arts and Sciences and the School of Ocean Science and Engineering at The University of Southern Mississippi in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Approved by: Dr. Wei Wu, Committee Chair Dr. Patrick Biber Dr. Kevin Dillon Dr. Robert Leaf May 2021 COPYRIGHT BY Hailong Huang 2021 Published by the Graduate School ABSTRACT Changes in climate and atmospheric acidic deposition alter biogeochemical cycles in forested ecosystems. I investigated the responses of vegetation, soil, and hydro-related processes to changes in climate and acidic deposition at five high-elevation forests in the southeastern U.S. using a biogeochemical model - PnET-BGC model. I focused on change-points and thresholds concepts that were less studied in forest ecosystems as well as seasonal variability of responses and extreme events. I applied principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimensionality of data. I developed a Bayesian multi-level model to derive key biogeochemical variables response to temperature and precipitation (local) and latitude and elevation (regional) with uncertainty accounted for. The first principal components (PC1s) explain 50-60% and 40-50% of the variance in the 17 main biogeochemical variables simulated from the model at the Coweeta Basin (CWT) and Shenandoah National Park (SNP) respectively. PC1s at CWT are highly correlated to transpiration, gross and net primary production (GPP and NPP), soil base saturation, soil Al:Ca ratio, and stream chemistry (Ca2+ and K+), while PC1s at SNP are highly correlated to NPP, transpiration, and stream base cations. The key biogeochemical processes show strong seasonality in their response to future climate change. Higher latitudinal sites have earlier but fewer change-points than lower latitudes from 1931 to 2100. Vegetation at higher-elevation forests appears more sensitive to climate change, while soil and streams are more sensitive at the lower-elevation forests. Flooding and drought will become more frequent, and soil and stream will become more acidic under climate change. Regional analysis demonstrates that temperature tends to drive key biogeochemical variables more significantly than precipitation. Winter shows the least sensitivity to climate change in ii NPP, transpiration, and acid neutralization capacity 3 (ANC) at all five sites. In addition, latitude and elevation influence the sensitivity of these biogeochemical variables to temperature and precipitation at some degree. Change in acidic deposition will likely shift the biogeochemical processes response to climate change differently, depending on biogeochemical processes, season, and the direction and magnitude of change in acidic deposition. The effect is minimal for NPP, and summer and winter will have the largest shifts. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisor, Dr. Wei Wu, who has given me the opportunity to pursue my Ph.D. under her guidance. Without her great patience and encouragement, I am not sure I could finish my study here through these years. Her insightful questions, challenging comments, and feedback always pointed me to the right direction especially toward the end of my study here. With her diligence and professionalism, she is not only my advisor but also my role model both in life and work. I could never ask for a better advisor to pursue my Ph.D. and I will be indebted to her for the rest of my life. My profound gratitude also goes to my other committee members: Dr. Patrick Biber, Dr. Kevin Dillon, and Dr. Robert Leaf, as well as my previous committee member Dr. Katherine Elliott from the USDA Forest Service at the Southern Station at Coweeta, NC. With their extremely generous support, guidance, encouragement, and professionalism, I have eventually completed my dissertation project successfully. I would also like to thank the Environmental Protection Agency through the STAR program for providing the funding for this research. I want to say thanks to the following professors and their labs: Dr. Katherine Hayhoe and Anne Stoner, for providing the downscaled climate data; Dr. Charles Driscoll and Dr. Afshin Pourmokhtarian, for helping with the PnET-BGC model, data, and manuscripts; Dr. Chelcy Miniat and Dr. Jennifer Knoepp, for sharing data, papers, and insights on Coweeta Basin; Dr. Deepak Mishra, for financially supporting me for one year through one NASA proect; Dr. Tina Masterson and the Department of Chemistry of the University of Southern Mississippi, for supporting me through many years of studying here. 5 I would like to give thanks to my department and school, as well as my current and past lab members and friends who iv have impacted my life deeply: Dr. Shuo Shen, Jason Tilley, Tyler Hardy, Yimu Yang, Evan Grimes, Devin Jen, Kodi Feldpausch, Dr. David Cotton, and many others. Finally, I would like to say thanks to my family and especially to my mom. I feel sorry for keeping her waiting for so long. v DEDICATION To my beloved parents, for their endless love, support, and encouragement. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................ ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................. iv DEDICATION ................................................................................................................... vi LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. xi LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS ........................................................................................... xiii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................ xviii CHAPTER I – INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................... 1 1.1 Climate impacts to forested watershed ..................................................................... 2 1.1.1 Impacts to forest ................................................................................................. 2 1.1.2 Impacts to hydrology ......................................................................................... 3 1.1.3 Impacts to soil .................................................................................................... 4 1.2 Atmospheric deposition impacts to forested watershed ............................................ 5 1.3 PnET-BGC model and modeling approach .............................................................. 6 1.4 Study sites ............................................................................................................... 10 1.5 Overall objective and general hypotheses............................................................... 11 CHAPTER II IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROCHEMICAL PROCESSES AT TWO HIGH-ELEVATION FORESTED WATERSHEDS IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, U.S. ............................................................................. 15 Abstract ............................................................................................................................. 15 vii 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 17 2.2 Methods................................................................................................................... 20 2.2.1 Study area......................................................................................................... 21 2.2.2 Model description, inputs and calibration ........................................................ 22 2.2.3 Principal component analysis (PCA) ............................................................... 29 2.2.4 Seasonal analysis ............................................................................................. 29 2.2.5 Change-points detection and large climate variability..................................... 30 2.2.6 Threshold analysis ........................................................................................... 31 2.2.7 Hydrological extremes and acidification status ............................................... 31 2.3 Results