Waste Paper Recycling and the Future Timber Market
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Waste paper recycling and the future timber market Research shows that the accelerated re- terms of regional timber consumption cycling of waste paper in the 1990s will and prices. likely have substantial timber market im- In the past two years, another issue by Peter J. Ince pacts, particularly in the Southern U.S., has been at the forefront of public atten- and Joanne T. Alig where more than half the U.S. pulp, tion and debate: the economic implica- paper and paperboard is produced. tions of protecting the notthern spotted Peter J. Ince is a research forester and Much of the projected increase in owl. Like the growth in waste paper re- Joanne T. Alig is an economist with the waste paper recycling will occur in un- cycling, the conservation of this species U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Forest bleached kraft board and newsprint may have a large influente on future Products Laboratory in Madison, Wis- grades now produced mainly in the timber markets. A third objective, then, consin. This article summarizes a de- South from softwood pulpwood. Thus, is to compare the effects of waste paper tailed research paper. recycling will tend to offset future de- recycling and protecting the northern mand growth for softwood pulpwood to a spotted owl on timber markets. greater extent than that for hardwood, and it will mainly offset demand growth Methodology in the South. Economic effects on timber markets of Recycling will extend softwood timber Paper recycling reduces the implementing a conservation strategy for supplies, leveling market differentials be- need for wood fiber. Im- the northern spotted owl have been pro- tween hardwood and softwood pulp- jected by the Forest Service and the portant research conducted wood, and extending softwood saw- Bureau of Land Management (1). There timber supply. As a result, there will be by forest industry experts is much uncertainty about the extent to increased opportunity for domestic pro- quantifies the future which wildlife conservation strategies will duction of paper, paperboard and other savings of this critica1 be implemented in the future. forest products, particularly in the South. Our analysis, therefore, does not con- In this article, timber market implications natural resource and in- sider the ramification of all possible land are projected into the 21st century, and dicates the substantial or wildlife conservation strategies or results are compared with implications benefits from increased technological developments. Rather, it of implementing a conservation strategy projects timber market implications into paper recycling in the U.S. for the northern spotted owl. the 21st century and compares results with the implications of implementing a Introduction conservation strategy for the northern It is timely and appropriate to consider spotted owl . future timber market implications of a Our larger report includes a detailed significant development that will unfold explanation of this research methodol- in the 1990s: acceleration in the rate of U.S. waste paper recycling. By all ac- OgY. counts, not only will waste paper re- cycling accelerate, but the use of re- Recycling in perspective cycled waste paper as a fiber input for The recycling issue has been brought production of paper and paperboard will home to nearly every Amerizan. Within continue to grow. With this increase in the past few years, each of the 50 states recycling, the consumption of pulpwood has enacted some form of recycling will grow more slowly than previously legislation, and communities across the anticipated. U.S. have developed programs for The objectives of this article are to source separation and collection. People present information on likely rates of in most households now separate plastic waste paper recycling in the late 1990s bottles, aluminum cans and newspapers by product grade and to show the an- from other trash. ticipated timber market consequences in More than 50 million tons of waste , 123 Resource Recycling April 1992 Waste paper recovery and utilization The likely acceleration in waste paper H Table 1 - U.S. paper and paperboard production and waste paper recycling can be better visualized by utilization, 1988-2000 examining paper and paperboard pro- Utilization rate in percent duction figures along with waste paper Product grade 1988(l) 1995 (2) 2000 (3) utilization rates for selected product Paper grades (Table 1). The utilization rate is a Newsprint 24 37 45.0 measure of how much recyclable paper Printing and writing 7 7 8.9 is actually used in U.S. paper and Tissue and sanitary 46 49 50.0 paperboard mills in relation to paper and Packaging and industrial 5 5 6.1 paperboard production. (By taking into Paperboard account the expot-t of secondary Unbleached kraft ll 20 20.4 fibers and the domestic use of recov- Semichemical 41 ered paper in other applications, such as 33 43.8 Bleached 0 0 insulation and mulch, the recovery rate 0 Recycled 100 is much higher than the utilization rate.) 100 100.0 In 1988, the utilization rate was 25.2 All grades (4) 25 30 30.9 percent; in 1989, 26.5 percent (2). Ac- cording to Forest Products Laboratory (1) Actual. (2) Franklin Associates, Ltd., Paper Recychg: The View to 7995, 1990. projections, if the industry’s waste paper (3) Forest Products Laboratory. recovery goal is achieved by 1995, the (4) Excluding construction paper and board. utilization rate for waste paper will be around 31 percent by 2000. Source: Forest Products Laboratory, 1991. Table 1 lists actual data for 1988 and projections for 1995 and 2000. The More significantly, in terms of timber zation rates will nearly double by the projections for 2000 were designed to markets, the projected increases in re- end of the decade. In the U.S. these simulate the long-term consequences of cycling are concentrated in product trends are particularly significant be- technological developments in the grades such as unbleached kraft board cause those product grades are cur- 1990s. and newsprint, where waste paper utili- rently produced mainly from softwood 44 Targetíng Calífornía? Over 9 yeurs ECOLOBAGS provide the petfect solution of Experience to both private and municipal leaf collection. They comply with local legislation against the use ELyeing for of plastic bags for leaf disposal, plus they can be l-l more economical than plastic bags. Tests show that twice as rnany leaves can be stuffed into a 30-gallon* l ECOLOBAG versus a 30-gallon plastic bag.* ECOLOBAGS are constructed of tough two-ply weather-resistant kraft utilizing a water-resistant adhesive throughout, so they can be left at curbside, even in inclernent weather! SELF-STANMNG l WEATHER RESISTANT l BICDEGRADABLE l PUNCTURE RESISTANT Call us today for a free sample at (800) 34&DAN0 Government Relations s 1107 9th. Street, Suite 660 Sacramento, California 95814 Specializing in environmentally safe products for more than 20 years. Telephone: (916) 4474113 \ Fax: (916) 4447835 // l Brookhaven, New York study 1989. Copies avai/ab/e upon request. l * approximate Circle 116 on RR service card Circle 35 on RR service card 125 Resource Recycbng April 1992 This is a very interesting result because it indicates that accelerated recycling will n Figure 1 - Pacific Northwest sawtimber stumpage market, alternate actually increase the long-term growth projections potential of the U.S. industry, by ex- $/MBF (1) panding fiber resources in terms of both pulpwood and recycled fiber. Although paper and paperboard pro- 100 duction will increase, this new analysis nevertheless results in reduced growth in pulpwood consumption. Pulpwood 80 consumption will continue to grow in the future, but consumption will grow more 60 slowly than originally projected. Although Owls & Recycling pulpwood consumption climbed from 40 around 90 million cords in 1986 to over 97 million cords in 1989, the consump- 20 tion trend will not continue at the same pace in the 21st century. In the new scenario, pulpwood consumption will be 0 20 million cords lower by the year 2040 1988 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 than in the earlier projection. Year (1) Real price index in dollars per million board feet. Impacts on sawtimber markets Source: Forest Products Laboratory, 1991. Reduced pulpwood consumption in the decades ahead will extend timber sup- plies, particularly for softwood timber. recycling will affect sawtimber markets. the northern spotted owl issue in the Therefore, in addition to examining We considered three scenarios, placing Pacific Northwest. pulpwood markets, we examined how the impact of recycling in the context of Figure 1 portrays the results of this In Most Places They GRUENDLER Waste _<’ :: .,*: ír :(<’ Our four basic machines: -’ Wood Hogs .: Lumpbreakers .$:x, ’ Bottle & Can Crushers ,! Vertical Paper Shredders can process most of the materials in the waste stream.1 The rest we more exotic When you G glass, metal paper, you (- equipment i over a cen experience. _. 1 -3821 Circle 53 on RR service card 127 Resource Recycling April 1992 analysis. The estimates in the top two lines (“0~1s” and “Base”) were obtained n Figure 2 - Southern softwood sswtimber stumpage market, alternate from the recent joint Forest Service and projections Bureau of Land Management study of the economic effects of implementing a conservation strategy for the northern spotted owl (1). The “Base” scenario ad- dresses all issues except for the protec- tion of the northern spotted owl, and the “Owls” scenario expands this case to 801 /T simulate the impacts of a major conser- vation strategy for the northern spotted * owl and related forest plans in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and Pacific Southwest 11 z Recycling regions. The “0~1s” scenario assumed a substantial reduction in allowable sale quantities for timber in the national forests in those regions. Both the “Base” and the “Owls” scenarios assumed no PI acceleration in waste paper recycling in 1988 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 the 1990s.