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Flood Vulnerability Assessment Using Multi- Criteria Approach: a Case Study from North Gaza

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Flood Vulnerability Assessment Using Multi- Criteria Approach: a Case Study from North Gaza اﻟﺠـﺎﻣﻌــــــــــﺔ اﻹﺳـــــﻼﻣﯿــﺔ ﺑﻐــﺰة The Islamic University of Gaza ﻋﻤﺎدة اﻟﺒﺤﺚ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ واﻟﺪراﺳﺎت اﻟﻌﻠﯿﺎ Deanship of Research and Graduate Studies ﻛـﻠﯿــــــــــــــــــــﺔ اﻟﮭﻨﺪﺳــــــــــــــــــﺔ Faculty of Engineering Master of Water Resources Management ﻣﺎﺟﺴﺘﯿـــــﺮ إدارة ﻣﺼـــــــﺎدر ﻣﯿــــﺎه Flood Vulnerability Assessment Using Multi- Criteria Approach: A Case Study from North Gaza ﺘﻘییم ﻤواطن ﻀعﻒ أﻤﺎﻛن اﻟتﻌرض ﻟﻠﻔیضﺎﻨﺎت �ﺎﺴتخدام ﻨﻬﺞ ﻤتﻌدد اﻟمﻌﺎﯿیر: دراﺴﺔ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺸمﺎل ﻗطﺎع ﻏزة By Dalya Taysir Matar Supervised by Dr. Khalil Al Astal Dr. Tamer Eshtawi Assistant Professor in Water Assistant Professor in Water Resources Engineering Resources Engineering A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Water Resources Management March /2019 إﻗــــــــــــــرار أﻨﺎ اﻟموﻗﻊ أدﻨﺎﻩ ﻤﻘدم اﻟرﺴﺎﻟﺔ اﻟتﻲ ﺘحمﻞ اﻟﻌنوان: Flood Vulnerability Assessment Using Multi-Criteria Approach: A Case Study from North Gaza ﺘﻘییم ﻤواطن ﻀعﻒ أﻤﺎﻛن اﻟتﻌرض ﻟﻠﻔیضﺎﻨﺎت �ﺎﺴتخدام ﻨﻬﺞ ﻤتﻌدد اﻟمﻌﺎﯿیر: دراﺴﺔ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺸمﺎل ﻗطﺎع ﻏزة أﻗر �ﺄن ﻤﺎ اﺸتمﻠت ﻋﻠیﻪ ﻫذﻩ اﻟرﺴﺎﻟﺔ إﻨمﺎ ﻫو ﻨتﺎج ﺠﻬدي اﻟخﺎص، �ﺎﺴتثنﺎء ﻤﺎ ﺘمت اﻹﺸﺎرة إﻟیﻪ ﺤیثمﺎ ورد، وأن ﻫذﻩ اﻟرﺴﺎﻟﺔ �كﻞ أو أي ﺠزء ﻤنﻬﺎ ﻟم �ﻘدم ﻤن ﻗبﻞ ا ﻻ ﺨ ر� ن ﻟنیﻞ درﺠﺔ أو ﻟﻘب ﻋﻠمﻲ أو �حثﻲ ﻟدى أي ﻤؤﺴسﺔ ﺘﻌﻠیمیﺔ أو �حثیﺔ أﺨرى. Declaration I understand the nature of plagiarism, and I am aware of the University’s policy on this. The work provided in this thesis, unless otherwise referenced, is the researcher's own work and has not been submitted by others elsewhere for any other degree or qualification. اﺴم اﻟطﺎﻟب: داﻟﯿﮫ ﺗﯿﺴﯿﺮ ﻣﻄﺮ :Student's name اﻟتوﻗیﻊ: :Signature ا ﻟ ت ﺎ ر� ﺦ : :Date I Abstract Flooding is one of the prevalent natural disasters that cause serious damage to the population. The objective of this study was to assess the flood vulnerability in North Gaza area. This study has been done using three models: 1) Analytical Hierarchy process (AHP), 2) ArcGIS, and 3) SewerGEMs. To model and to predict the flood vulnerability areas in North Gaza, an integrated GIS and AHP techniques were used. The flood vulnerability mapping was produced using various flood vulnerability causative criteria such as social including poverty and culture and a population density of the area, coping, household structural, and physical including rainfall quantities, soil type, land use, and network availability and reliability. Moreover, the existing stormwater drainage system was investigated using SewerGEMs. The main method used for the delineation of the catchment areas of North Gaza governorate was Arc Hydro model under the ArcGIS environment. The main input data of the modeling was elevation points, digital elevation model (DEM), study area position. The catchment areas at ponds and depression zones were developed by the end of the model. The final results of catchments delineation were used to estimate the amount of the runoff using the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) method in SewerGEMs and compare the generated amount of runoff with the system capacity. From the pairwise judgment of each level at AHP model, it was clear that the most likely criteria to increase the vulnerability of the area was the physical criteria with a relative probability of 71.79% while the social, the household structure and the coping vulnerability were having less contribution to increase flood vulnerability of the area with relative weight of 15.18%, 7.67%, and 5.36% respectively. Furthermore, the most dominant sub-criteria were the drainage and slope with a relative weight of 22.69% and 18% respectively. It also showed high consistency in judicial opinions. As well as the results provided the most favorable and less favorable alternative actions to mitigate the vulnerability which shows that integrated stormwater management was the best alternative with a relative weight of 55.8% while the relocation option was ranked as the option before the do nothing with a relative weight of 19.2% due to high cost and limited land. Results of vulnerability mapping showed that nearly 45% of North Gaza are among highly vulnerable toward flood. While almost 70% of the population in North Gaza are expected to expose to the high flood risk. On the other hand, the assessment of the existing drainage pipelines presents that 40% of pipelines capacity is inadequate and the storage capacity of all the storm ponds are insufficient except for Abu Rashid pond. In that improvement and upgrading of the existing system are highly recommended. By the end, intervention prioritized and the procedure was also developed according to the degree of vulnerability, the highest vulnerable areas were proposed to conduct integrated stormwater management plan (ISWMP) while doing nothing option was proposed for the lowest vulnerable areas. In general, this research provides guidance on what the decision makers should consider when assessing vulnerability, setting mitigation options in response to hazards and giving a recommended prioritize support. III ﻣﻠﺨﺺ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﺗﻌﺪ اﻟﻔﯿﻀﺎﻧﺎت ھﻲ واﺣﺪة ﻣﻦ اﻟﻜﻮارث اﻟﻄﺒﯿﻌﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺋﺪة اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﺴﺒﺐ ﻓﻲ أﺿﺮار ﺟﺴﯿﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻜﺎن. ﺗﮭﺪف ھﺬه اﻟﺪراﺳﮫ إﻟﻰ ﺗﻘﯿﯿﻢ ﻣﻮاطﻦ اﻟﻀﻌﻒ ﺗﺠﺎه اﻟﻔﯿﻀﺎﻧﺎت ﻓﻲ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺷﻤﺎل ﻗﻄﺎع ﻏﺰة. ﺗﻢ إﺟﺮاء ھﺬه اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻧﻤﺎذج: 1) ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻟﺘﺴﻠﺴﻞ اﻟﮭﺮﻣﻲ اﻟﺘﺤﻠﯿﻠﻲ (AHP)، 2) ﻧﻈﻢ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﺠﻐﺮاﻓﯿﮫ (SewerGEMs (3 ،(ArcGIS. ﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ وﺗﻮﻗﻊ ﻣﻨﺎطﻖ اﻟﻀﻌﻒ ﻓﻲ ﺷﻤﺎل ﻗﻄﺎع ﻏﺰة، ﺗﻢ اﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﺗﻘﻨﯿﺎت ﻧﻈﻢ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﺠﻐﺮاﻓﯿﺔ واﻟﺘﺴﻠﺴﻞ اﻟﮭﺮﻣﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ. وﻗﺪ ﺗﻢ رﺳﻢ ﺧﺮاﺋﻂ اﻟﻀﻌﻒ ﺗﺠﺎه اﻟﻔﯿﻀﺎﻧﺎت ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺴﺒﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻀﻌﻒ ﻣﺜﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯿﮫ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺸﻤﻞ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﺴﻜﺎﻧﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ ، وﻣﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﺘﺄﻗﻠﻢ ، ﻣﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮاﻟﮭﯿﺎﻛﻞ اﻟﺒﻨﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺎزل ، اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮاﻟﻔﯿﺰﯾﺎﺋﯿﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﻣﯿﻮل اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ، ﻛﻤﯿﺎت ﺳﻘﻮط اﻟﻤﻄﺮ، ﻧﻮع اﻟﺘﺮﺑﺔ، اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻷراﺿﻲ وﺗﻮاﻓﺮ ﺷﺒﻜﺎت اﻟﺘﺼﺮﯾﻒ وﻣﺪى ﻗﺪرﺗﮭﺎ اﻻﺳﺘﯿﻌﺎﺑﯿﺔ. ﻋﻼوة ﻋﻠﻰ ذﻟﻚ، ﺗﻢ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ دراﺳﺔ ﻧﻈﺎم ﺗﺼﺮﯾﻒ ﻣﯿﺎه اﻷﻣﻄﺎراﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ واﻟﺘﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺪرﺗﮫ اﻻﺳﺘﯿﻌﺎﺑﯿﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام SewerGEMs. ﺣﯿﺚ ﺗﻢ اﻋﺘﻤﺎد ﻧﻤﻮذج Arc Hydro ﻟﺪى ﺑﯿﺌﺔ ال Arc GIS ﻟﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻨﺎطﻖ ﻣﺴﺘﺠﻤﻌﺎت اﻟﻤﯿﺎه ﻓﻲ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻈﺔ ﺷﻤﺎل ﻏﺰة. ﺑﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻹدﺧﺎل اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﮫ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ ھﻲ ﻧﻘﺎط اﻻرﺗﻔﺎع، ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻻرﺗﻔﺎع اﻟﺮﻗﻤﻲ (DEM)، ﺣﺪود ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟﺪراﺳﺔ. ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﮫ ﺗﻢ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻨﺎطﻖ ﻣﺴﺘﺠﻤﻌﺎت اﻟﻤﯿﺎه ﻟﺒﺮك ﺗﺠﻤﯿﻊ ﻣﯿﺎه اﻻﻣﻄﺎر وﻣﻨﺎطﻖ اﻟﻔﯿﻀﺎن ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﻢ اﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﺪﯾﺮ ﻛﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﺠﺮﯾﺎن اﻟﺴﻄﺤﻲ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪام طﺮﯾﻘﺔ Soil Conservation Service (SCS) ﻟﺪي SewerGEMs وﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻛﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﺠﺮﯾﺎن اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺠﺔ ﻣﻊ ﻗﺪرة اﺳﺘﯿﻌﺎب اﻟﺸﺒﻜﺔ (ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﺘﺼﺮﯾﻒ). أظﮭﺮت ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ اﻟﻤﺰدوﺟﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻓﻲ ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻟﺘﺴﻠﺴﻞ اﻟﮭﺮﻣﻲ أن اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﻔﯿﺰﯾﺎﺋﯿﺔ ھﻲ اﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮاً ﻋﻠﻰ رﻓﻊ ﺿﻌﻒ اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺗﺠﺎه اﻟﻔﯿﻀﺎﻧﺎت ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ 71.79٪، ﺑﯿﻨﻤﺎ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻻﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯿﮫ، اﻟﮭﯿﻜﻞ اﻟﺒﻨﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺎزل وﻣﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﺘﻜﯿﻒ أﻗﻞ ﻣﺴﺎھﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ زﯾﺎدة ﺿﻌﻒ اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﮫ ﺗﺠﺎه اﻟﻔﯿﻀﺎﻧﺎت ﺑﻨﺴﺒﺔ 15.18%، 7.67% و 5.36% ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻮاﻟﻲ. ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﯿﺔ أﺧﺮى، ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ اﻟﻔﺮﻋﯿﺔ اﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮاً ھﻲ ﺷﺒﻜﺎت اﻟﺘﺼﺮﯾﻒ وﻣﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﮫ ﺑﻨﺴﺒﮫ 22.69% و 18% ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻮاﻟﻲ. ﻛﻤﺎ أظﮭﺮت اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﺗﺴﺎﻗًﺎ ًﻛﺒﯿﺮا ﻓﻲ آراء اﻟﺨﺒﺮاء اﻟﺬﯾﻦ ﻗﺎﻣﻮا ﺑﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻷوﻟﻮﯾﺎت واﻟﻤﻘﺎرﻧﮫ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﯿﺮ. ﻛﻤﺎ أظﮭﺮت اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻹﺟﺮاءات اﻟﺒﺪﯾﻠﺔ اﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻼءﻣﺔ واﻷﻗﻞ ﺗﻔﻀﯿﻼً ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻔﯿﻒ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻀﻌﻒ واﻟﺘﻲ أوﺿﺤﺖ أن اﻹدارة اﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﻟﻤﯿﺎه اﻷﻣﻄﺎر ھﻲ اﻟﺒﺪﯾﻞ اﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﺑﻮزن ﻧﺴﺒﻲ ﯾﺒﻠﻎ 55.8٪ ﺑﯿﻨﻤﺎ ﺗﻢ ﺗﺼﻨﯿﻒ ﺧﯿﺎر إﻋﺎدة اﻟﺘﻮطﯿﻦ ﻛﺨﯿﺎرأﺧﯿﺮ ﻗﺒﻞ ﻋﺪم اﺗﺨﺎذ أي إﺟﺮاءات ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻔﯿﻒ ﺑﻮزن ﻧﺴﺒﻲ 19.2٪ ﺑﺴﺒﺐ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ واﻷراﺿﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺪودة. أظﮭﺮت ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺧﺮاﺋﻂ اﻟﻀﻌﻒ أن 45% ﻣﻦ ﺷﻤﺎل ﻗﻄﺎع ﺗﺼﻨﻒ ﺿﻤﻦ اﻟﻤﻨﺎطﻖ اﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺿﻌﻔﺎً ﺗﺠﺎه اﻷﻣﻄﺎر. ﻓﻲ ﺣﯿﻦ أن ﻣﺎ ﯾﻘﺮب ﻣﻦ 70 ٪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺴﻜﺎن ﻓﻲ ﺷﻤﺎل ﻏﺰة ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ أن ﯾﺘﻌﺮﺿﻮا ﻟﺨﻄﺮ اﻟﻔﯿﻀﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ. ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﯿﺔ أﺧﺮى، أظﮭﺮت ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﻘﯿﯿﻢ ﺷﺒﻜﺎت اﻟﺘﺼﺮﯾﻒ أن 40% ﻣﻦ ﺷﺒﻜﺎت ﺗﺼﺮﯾﻒ ﻣﯿﺎه اﻷﻣﻄﺎر ﺗﻌﺎﻧﻲ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺼﻮر ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﺪرة اﻻﺳﺘﯿﻌﺎﺑﯿﺔ وﻋﺪم ﻛﻔﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﻘﺪرة اﻟﺘﺨﺰﯾﻨﯿﺔ ﻷﺣﻮاض ﺗﺠﻤﯿﻊ ﻣﯿﺎه اﻷﻣﻄﺎر ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎء ﺑﺮﻛﺔ أﺑﻮ راﺷﺪ اﻷﻣﺮ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺗﺤﺴﯿﻦ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ ورﻓﻊ ﻣﺴﺘﻮاه. ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﮭﺎﯾﺔ ﺘم ﺘطﻮﯿر أوﻟوﯿﺎت اﻟﺘدﺨل وإﺠراءاﺘﮭﺎ ﺤﺴب درﺠﺔ اﻟﻀﻌف، واﻗﺘرﺤت ﺘﻨﻔﯿذ ﺨطﺔ ﻤﺘﮐﺎﻤﻟﺔ ﻹدارة ﻤﯿﺎه اﻷﻣﻄﺎر (ISWMP) ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﺎطﻖ اﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺿﻌﻔﺎً، ﻓﻲ ﺤﯿن ﺘم اﻗﺘراح ﻋﺪم اﺟﺮاء أي ﻧﻮع ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺪﺧﻞ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﺎطﻖ اﻷﻗل ﺿﻌﻔﺎً. ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎم ، ﯾﻘﺪم ھﺬا اﻟﺒﺤﺚ إرﺷﺎدات ﺣﻮل ﻣﺎ ﯾﺠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺻﻨﺎع اﻟﻘﺮار ﻣﺮاﻋﺎﺗﮫ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻘﯿﯿﻢ ﻣﻮاطﻦ اﻟﻀﻌﻒ، وﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ ﺧﯿﺎرات اﻟﺘﺨﻔﯿﻒ اﺳﺘﺠﺎﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺎطﺮ وﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ أوﻟﻮﯾﺎت اﻟﺪﻋﻢ. IV Dedication I dedicate this project to Allah my creator Almighty for giving me strength, and a unique enthusiasm for achieving this success. I also dedicate this work to my mother and my father for their unconditional encouragement and support whose made it possible for me to complete what I have started. To my beloved brothers, sisters, and friends for their whole-hearted supporting, helping and standing by me. To the unknown soldier who affected me during this quest and stands by me when things look bleak. Thank you. My love for all of you will never be quantified. V Acknowledgment As a Moslem, I am offering my greatest gratitude to Allah SWT for his grace, blessings, guidance, and help which could be no justification for the existence of my project without him. I would like to extend my highest gratitude to my supervisors Dr. Khalil Al Astal and Dr. Tamer Eshtawi, who always gave me their best support and guidance. These special thanks also go to the experts for their cooperation in providing me their judgment on assessing the vulnerability. Many thanks also go to municipal key informants for their support, cooperation and providing me with the primary and secondary data, which help me to do a lot of research and know a new thing about the study area. My amazing family, the greatest gifts anybody could ever ask, for their abundant support especially in my academic life. I have always been blessed by them for giving me all prayers, spirit, and courage not only this but also always of enough willingness to cultivate me with huge support and encouragement to accomplish my studies and now to finish up this thesis project. My gratitude never stops here, because there are many people, I am grateful for in my journey. They are too many for me to mention them name by name but all I can say is that I never took anybody’s even smallest support for granted. Every one of them I am most grateful for helping me in a direct or indirect way.
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