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Home , Amari Cooper, Andy Dalton, Ben DiNucci, Blake Jarwin, Brent Urban, Bryan Anger

CLICK TO BUY WARREN'S 400+ PAGE, 2021 FOOTBALL PREVIEW "Simply the best analytical 2021 football preview you can buy" A FIVE-TIME AMAZON BESTSELLER - NOW AVAILABLE AT EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT

Written by Warren Sharp Edited by Dan Pizzuta Featuring contributions from Rich Hribar, Dan Pizzuta, TA Cleveland and Ryan McCrystal TEAM CHAPTER LAYOUT AND DEFINITIONS

PAGE 1: Schedule strength based on opponent Vegas win totals // asterisk next to draft indicates comp pick // Lineup & Cap Hits lists projected starting roster shaded based on cap to analyze where cap $ is being spent // Key players lost if null shows unsigned players to date

PAGE 2: Advanced stats including EPA (Expected Points Added), which is a metric that looks at the Expected Points (EP) of the , distance, and field position situation at the start of a play and contrasting it with the situation at the end of the play. Thus, the difference, or “added” points are considered EPA, and could be positive or negative), and Success Rate are calculated on a per-play basis. Success rate is defined as frequency a play gains required yardage to stay ahead of sticks, and is a rate stat // EDSR is a custom metric Warren created to measure early down success and measures efficiency on early downs and ability to bypass third down offensively or force opponents into third downs defensively // INT = , FUM = // Weekly EDSR chart bottom left looks at whether team won the EDSR battle (comparing both sides of the vs opponent) each week, green bar = EDSR win, red bar = EDSR loss

PAGE 3: logo in Strength of Schedule graphic is the 2020 forecast, the shaded target is 2019 actual based on 2019 season through week 17 // Schedule Variance analyzes ease in schedule as compared to the rest of teams. Red and 1 indicates hardest jumps in difficulty, Green and 32 indicates easiest shift in schedule // Health by unit based on Adjusted Games Lost from Football Outsiders // Weekly betting lines are accurate as of date of publication

PAGE 4: Rest and preparation edges based on schedule timing // ranking of schedule edges 1-32 compared to rest of NFL teams

PAGE 5: Positional unit rankings 1-32

PAGE 6: Usage Rate by Score examines percentage of a team’s total plays in that given score margin which are given (via attempt or target) to that player // Share of Offensive Plays by Type looks at total rushes or passes each player received // Completion Percentage by Depth shows completion depth (aDOT aka average depth of target) along x-axis and completion rate along y-axis. Grey dashed line and dots are league averages based on select downs (early = first and second, or third pulled out separately) // Rank of Defensive Pass or Rush efficiency by week looks at prior-yr final rankings of current-yr opponents to get a sense of pockets of easy or tough schedules – prior yr ranks typically show mild but not strong correlation to current yr expectations, and rushing is more closely correlated yr over yr.

PAGE 7: Success by Play Type and Personnel Grouping: the first number in the grouping is the number of RBs, the second is the number of TEs. WRs are listed in parenthesis. Thus, 12 = 1 RB, 2 TEs and 2 WRs. Success rate and EPA/play are listed, along with # of plays from that grouping // Receiving Success: each cell shows success rate and targets on the first line, with yards per attempt (YPA) and EPA/target (described above) // Rushing Success: first line is success rate and attempts, second line is YPC and EPA/rush // Other passing metrics below look at QB performance

PAGE 8: team narrative continues // analysis of the immediate impact of the team’s 2021 draft class on the upcoming season only (not focused on future years)

PAGE 9: Passing yardage consists of air yardage (distance ball travels measured per play from to target) and yards after catch (YAC, distance receiver travels before he is tackled). YIA (Yards In Air of pass, aka another abbreviation for Air Yardage) // Missed YPA yardage on unsuccessful plays which fell short of required cutoff for the play to have been graded “successful” // YAS yardage above successful, yardage gained in excess of cutoff, and measures explosiveness of player

PAGE 10: Number of DBs vs Personnel: rates of DBs used by the team’s defense when they face various offensive personnel groupings, and the efficiency of those opponent passes based on success rate and EPA/att // Defensive Tendencies show rate and rank of base, nickel and dime vs NFL average, and this table also shows defensive rush and blitz tendencies

PAGE 11: Most metrics are self-explanatory, early down target rate shows NFL averages below frequency

PAGE 12: Top 63 metrics are numbered to allow for easier call-out in chapter narrative. Metrics 4-13 look only at first half. Metrics 14-21 look at pre- motion (PSM) usage and improvement in quarters 1-3 only. Metrics 22-26 look at play action (PA) on early downs in quarters 1-3. Metrics 27-34 study offensive performance and tendency based on number of defenders in the box pre-snap // Luck: FROE (Fumble Recovery Over Expectation), on offense or defense, and rankings 1-32 // luck analyzes own and opposing FG conversion rate vs average // Player Tracking Data: stats are defined below section. 2018 ranks are listed for QBs with enough 2018 attempts to qualify, to use for comparing year to year performance

PAGE 13: Offensive Passing Tendencies: these heat maps show where QBs target their receivers in each situation outlined. Red = heavily targeted, light green = light targeted, white = no targets. This is a vertical view of the football field, with the line of scrimmage at the “0” line of the y-axis, and the QB faces north on the page while looking to pass. Graphics depicting success (in black) show light yellow for most successful targets, green for moderate and dark blue for least successful. Coaches (Prior Yrs) 2021 Forecast Head Coach: Wins Div Rank Mike McCarthy (1 yr) : (2 yrs) 9.5 #1 : Dan Quinn (ATL HC) (new) Past Records 2020: 6-10 Easy Hard 2019: 8-8 2018: 10-6 6.800 12.350 TB KC LAC NE MIN DEN NO ATL WAS WAS ARI PHI CAR NYG LVR NYG PHI

A A H H H A A H H A H A A A H H A 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 TNF MNF SNF TNF TNF SNF Rest Edge: +3 -4 +3 -1 Key Players Lost 2021 Dallas Cowboys Overview Key Free Agents/ Trades Added Player New What do we take from the 2020 trainwreck that was the Cowboys? I’m going to buck the (EDGE) Seahawks trend and say that there’s actually some things we can learn about this team, their Player AAV (MM) philosophy, and things that may help us anticipate what is to come in 2021. b (QB) Bears (S) $4 cb (EDGE) $2.79 b (IDL) Colts c Offensively, it doesn’t get much more brutal than what we saw in Dallas last season. (IDL) $1.8 cb (TE) Chiefs (IDL) $1.8 b Their franchise was lost in the fifth game. Their top who was (RT) $1.8 c (LG) Panthers cb expected to make a significant impact in the receiving game was lost in the season (P) $1.2 cb Chidobe Awuzie (CB) Bengals Jake McQuaide (LS) $1.2 b opener. Their offensive line dropped like flies all season long. RT La’El Collins was hurt (S) $1.10 c Eli Ankou (IDL) Falcons cb in training camp and missed the entire season, LT played in just two games (TE) $1.10 Greg Senat (LT) Browns and RG missed six games. c (LB) Texans Drafted Players Justin March-Lillard (LB) Titans When went down, Dallas turned to Andy Dalton. He was believed to be a Rd Pk Player (College) Ron'Dell Carter (EDGE) Retired top-3 backup in the NFL before the season. But he was absolutely horrible. He averaged Xavier Woods (S) Vikings 5.0 YPA and -0.02 EPA/att in his first start against the Cardinals in Week 5 on Monday 1 12 LB - (Penn St.. A. (P) TBD Night Football, and the Cowboys were blown out 38-10. The very next week, Dalton 2 44 CB - (Kentucky) A. Jamize Olawale (FB) TBD averaged 3.9 YPA and -0.51 EPA/att in another loss, this time 25-3 against Washington. Dalton sustained a concussion in the game on a late hit. 75 DT - (UCLA) A. Joe Looney (C) TBD 84 DE - (Iowa) LP Ladouceur (LS) TBD 3 A. His replacement the next week was the great JMU product Ben DiNucci. DiNucci (LB) TBD 99 CB - (Orego.. A. averaged 4.5 YPA and -0.45 EPA/att in a primetime 23-9 loss against the Eagles. Tyrone Crawford (IDL) TBD 115 LB - (LSU) A. The Cowboys then decided to give a spin. He averaged just 6.4 YPA with 4 138 OT - (Marshall) A. Average # Games # Games -0.17 EPA/att and lost 24-19 to the Steelers. Line Favored Underdog 5 179 WR - (Stanford) A. Dallas, sitting at 2-7, crawled into their Week 10 bye to lick their wounds. 192 DT - (Kent.. A. 6 -0.3 8 9 Two things beyond others stood out: how was this passing offense allowed to be so 227 CB - (South .. A. 238 OG - (Nebraska) A. terrible – even considering the QB rotation, and secondly, (cont'd - see DAL2) 7

Regular Season Wins: FS 2021 Unit Spending D.Kazee Lineup & Cap Hits Past & Current Proj SS 35 D.Wilson LB All DEF Forecast M.Parsons LB 37 9.5 Rookie J.Smith 2021 Wins All OFF 11 9

2020 Wins 6 RCB SLOTCB DE DT DT DE LCB A.Brown J.Lewis R.Gregory T.Hill N.Gallimore D.Lawrence T.Diggs Positional Spending

30 26 94 72 96 90 27 Rank Total 2020 Rk Forecast 9.5 All OFF 2 $126.72M 8 2020 Wins ______QB 8 $24.84M 2 13 77 52 63 7170 19 OL 13 $36.76M 23 2019 Wins 8 LWR LT LG C RG RT RWR RB 3 $16.82M 4 M.Gallup 88 T.Smith* C.Williams T.Biadasz Z.Martin* L.Collins 89 A.Cooper WR 6 $37.70M 18 SLOTWR TE 2018 Wins 10 C.Lamb B.Jarwin TE 12 $10.60M 22 4 All DEF 19 $88.64M 31

QB DL 17 $42.16M 27 D.Prescott 2017 Wins 9 21 1 85 20 3 LB 7 $20.48M 6 RB 2020 Cap Dollars WR2 WR3 RB2 QB2 E.Elliott CB 16 $17.37M 23 13 5 7 9 111315 C.Wilson V.Bryant T.Pollard G.Gilbert* 881,839* = 30+ years old 27M S 26 $8.62M 31

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49.5 27 20 Total Efficiency Total CAR -5.5 H 49.5 4 DEFEfficiency 8 2 NYG -5.5 H 5

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Dalton was far more efficient on early down passes when using play-action, but the team rarely used it. From his Week 10 return onward: Week return 10Fromhis it. used rarely team the but play-action, downwhenpasses using early on moreefficient wasfar Dalton

W ith play-action: 22% usage, 9.0 YPA, 64% success, +0.22 EPA/attYPA,+0.22 64% 22%9.0 success, usage, play-action: With W ithout play-action: 78% usage, 7.0 YPA, 52% success, +0.04 EPA/attYPA,+0.04 52% 78%7.0 success, usage, play-action: Without

And keep in mind, the NFL average play-action usage on early downs last year was 33%. The Cowboys’ 22% usage ranked third-lowest in the NFL, despite NFL, the in was33%.TheCowboys’ 22%year third-lowest usageranked downslast early usageon NFLplay-action average the mind, Andin keep the massive spike in efficiency it delivered. This falls on Kellen Moore. Kellen on falls This delivered. it efficiency in spike massive the

The bottom line: after Prescott’s injury it was a tough situation for Dalton as well as the offensive line… but it was not a situation that was made any easier by wasmade easier any that situation a wasnot it but line… offensive the as well as Dalton for situation tough wasa it injury Prescott’s after line: Thebottom preparation, planning or adjustments. or planning preparation,

The other question: wherewasZeke? question: Theother

There are many arguments that the pro- crowd likes to make in support of having a blue chip, highly-drafted back: His production will be special. be will production His back: highly-drafted chip, blue a having of support make in to likes crowdback pro-running the manyarguments that are There He can support below average quarterback play. He’ll generate yards beyond what his line is blocking. He’s so much better than the next guy on deck.onguy next the than muchsobetter He’s blocking. is line his beyondwhat yards generate He’ll play. quarterback averagebelow support Hecan

In one season, Zeke undermined all of those arguments. Not that they weren’t already debunked by countless other highly-drafted running backs over the over backs running highly-drafted other debunkedcountless by already weren’t they that Not arguments. those of Zekeunderminedall season, one In years. But I challenge any pro-RB individual to defend their stance after witnessing what happened in Dallas last year. last Dallas happened what in witnessing after stance their defend to individual pro-RBany challenge I But years.

But first, a quick trip down memory lane where I looked at the last 20 first round running backs drafted, which spanned2009-2020.which drafted, backs running round first 20 last the at looked down memorywhere I lane trip quick a first, But

O f the 20: the Of

M ost (15 of 20) haven’t even led their team in YPC as the primary starter. primary YPC the as in team their led even haven’t 20) of (15 Most Half (10 of 20) haven’t even gained above average yards per carry. per yards aboveaverage gained even haven’t 20) of (10 Half Their teams won fewer games the following three years than the year prior to drafting the RB. the drafting to prior year the than years three following gameswonteams the fewer Their Their teams made fewer trips to the playoffs than they did prior to drafting the RB. the drafting to prior did they than playoffs the to trips madeteams fewer Their

W ith that understood, let’s examine Zeke. When the team needed him most, he didn’t perform. But why? What made Zeke great in the past but not this year? this not but past the in Whatmadewhy? But Zekegreat perform. didn’t he When neededteammost, examinehimZeke. the let’s understood, that With

For starters, let’s examine the quarterback splits: with and without Prescott in 2020. in Prescott without and with splits: quarterback examinethe let’s starters, For

W ith Dak: 4.1 YPC, 56% success, +0.00 EPA/attYPC,+0.00 56% 4.1 success, Dak: With W ithout Dak: 3.9 YPA, 48% success, -0.12 EPA/att YPA,-0.12 48% 3.9 success, Dak: Without

Let’s also look at where runs typically have the most value, which are those in the red zone: red the in those are which value, most the have typically whereruns at look also Let’s

W ith Dak: 3.0 YPC, 71% success, +0.27 EPA/attYPC,+0.27 71% 3.0 success, Dak: With W ithout Dak: 1.8 YPC, 37% success, -0.10 EPA/att YPC,-0.10 37% 1.8 success, Dak: Without

It’s almost as if a great running back can’t magically support below-average quarterback play. It’s also almost as if the presence of a good passing game goodpassing a of presence the if as almost also It’s play. quarterback below-average support magically can’t back running great a if as almost It’s helps rushing efficiency. rushing helps

The offensive line was problematic for several games while Dak was still healthy, and yet Zeke’s drop off didn’t come with Dak and without the line… it came it line… the Dakwithout and comewith didn’t off drop Zeke’s yet and healthy, Dakwasstill games while several for wasproblematic line Theoffensive after Prescott was hurt. That said, the offensive line certainly was a large part of Zeke’s struggles later in the season. the in later struggles Zeke’s of part large wasa certainly line offensive the said, That washurt. Prescott after

The offensive line ranked top-10 in run blocking in three of Zeke’s prior four seasons and has been one of the very best in the NFL for years. But in 2020, it 2020, in But years. NFLfor the in best very the of beenonehasseasonsand four prior Zeke’s of three in blocking run in top-10 ranked line Theoffensive dropped to 29th. And although still healthy, Zeke saw his production fall off immensely. off fall production Zekesawhis healthy, still Andalthough 29th. to dropped

It’s almost as if the offensive line is responsible for most of a running back’s production. It’s almost as if having a great offensive line is more important than moreimportant is line offensive great a having if as almost It’s production. back’s running a of most for responsible is line offensive the if as almost It’s having a great running back. running great a having

W e’ve discredited every pro-RB argument there is, except for one: “He’ll be so much better than the next guy on deck.” Surely, with all the other excuses other the all with Surely, deck.” onguy next the than muchsobetter be “He’ll one: for except is, argumentthere pro-RB every We’vediscredited RB-truthers would make for Zeke, there’s no chanceno there’s Zeke, makewouldfor RB-truthers and sameterrible the with playing is Tony Pollard Pollard all, After Zeke. upstage could

(cont'd - see - (cont'd DAL-4 ) Strength of Scheduled Game Timing: Analyzing Rest & Prep Inequality in the 2021theSchedule in Inequality &ScheduledPrepGame Rest of Analyzing Strength Timing:

2021 games2021where...

Opponenthas Opponenthas Teamaplays Teamrestahas Teamrestahas Teamoffplays Team'sweekbye over a weekato over weeka than less Difference Difference weekroad short disadvantage advantage SNFMNFroad or negated is prep prep to game

4 1 3 2 2 - 0 1 1

Strength of Scheduled Game Timing: Dallas CowboysScheduledNFL GameAverage vsof Ranking Dallas Strength Timing:

Short WeekShort Road Games GamesRoad SNF/MNFoff Net Rest EdgeRestNetRank RankPrep RankRest NegatedByeRank Rank Rank

13 23 15 1 11 24

CLICK HERE to get 400+ page book 4 SharpFootballAnalysis.com Forecast 2021WinsForecast W hy Bet the Under WhyOverthe Bet WhyUnderthe Bet 9.5

- The defense was poor last season, ranking 25th in EPA in 25th ranking season, last waspoor Thedefense - Dallas the injury, season-ending DakPrescott’s to Prior - per play allowed, against the easiest schedule ofschedule easiest single the against allowed, play per on rate success NFLin the secondin ranked offense opposing offenses in the NFL. They will need to rely on rely needto Theywill NFL. the in offenses opposing is This basis. EPAplay anon per 17th only but offense first round rookie LB Micah Parsons and secondroundandParsonsLBMicah rookie round first ball Cowboysthe the turned that fact the to due mainly pick CB Kelvin Joseph to play important snaps and helpandsnaps important play Josephto CBKelvin pick TheyNFL. the in most games,the five in times 11 over solve the defensive issues. That is a tall task and there is there and task tall a is That issues. defensive the solve the in secondmost the teams, eight offense on fumbled no reason they won’t struggle again. struggle won’t they reason no fumbles. those of one recover to able were only but NFL, The offense should continue its excellent play as long as long as play excellent its continue should Theoffense - The Cowboys are slated to face six quarterbacks that quarterbacks six face to TheCowboysslated are- fumbles. lost those avoid can they ranked in the top 10 last season in EPA per play. That is That EPAplay. per seasonin last 10 top the in ranked tied for the most in the NFL. the in most the for tied the in division worst the be to expected TheNFCis East - NFL, as it was last year, and overall the Cowboys the are overall and year, waslast it as NFL, - While Dallas is thrilled to have Prescott back in the in back Prescott have to thrilled is Dallas While - NFL the in schedule seventh-easiest the face to expected lineup this season, it remains to be seen that he will be will he that seenbe to remains it season, this lineup totals. win basedon 100% following such a devastating leg injury. leg devastating a such 100%following - The Cowboys had bad injury luck and ranked fifth in fifth rankedand luck TheCowboys injury badhad- - Dallas is always overhyped and their futures lines are lines futures their andoverhyped always is Dallas - did only Not Outsiders. Football by games lost adjusted always inflated - betting them under their win total since total win their underthem betting - inflated always most the secondin ranked they but Prescott lose they 2000 has gone 14-7 (67%).gone14-7 2000has LT line. offensive the on injury to due games lost adjusted Tyron Smith, RT La’el Collins and RG Zack Martin only RGandMartin Zack Collins RTLa’el Smith, Tyron played a combined 12 games after only missing a missing only combinedgames12a after played combined four games in 2019.games in combinedfour

Dallas Cowboys Positional Unit Rankings Unit Cowboys Positional Dallas QuarterbacksLine Offensive RunningBacks Receivers7 Front Secondary HeadCoach 5 3 9 2 23 25 19

If the Cowboys turn things around in 2021, they’ll need to win some shootouts. Every offensive unit ranks in our top 10, but both defensive units rank in the in rank units defensive both but 10, top our in ranks unit offensive Every someshootouts. win needto they’ll 2021, in around things Cowboys the turn If bottom 10.bottom

If the supporting cast is healthy, Dak Prescott should lead an elite offense in Dallas. The Cowboys are the only team with every offensive unit ranked in the top the in ranked unit offensive every with team only TheCowboys the are Dallas. in offense elite an lead should DakPrescott healthy, is cast supporting the If 10.

The backfield took a step backward in 2020, but still ranks ninth overall. averaged a career-low 1.4 yards before contact per attempt, but muchof but attempt, per contact before yards 1.4 career-low aaveraged Elliott Ezekiel overall. ninth ranks still but 2020, backwardin step a took Thebackfield that can likely be attributed to the injury-plagued offensive line. offensive injury-plagued the to attributed be likely can that

The receiving corps returns 97% of its targets from 2020, as well as starting tight end who suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1. With elite WithWeek 1. in injury season-ending a whosuffered Jarwin Blake end tight starting as well as 2020, from targets its 97% of returns corps Thereceiving depth and experience in the offense, it was an easy choice to rank this among the top units amongtop the this rank to choice easywasan it offense, the in experience and depth ballot. every on five top the 一appearedin they

Ranking the offensive line was somewhat difficult due to last year’s injuries but, when healthy, there’s little doubt this unit belongs among the best. Evenwith amongbest. belongs the unit this doubt little there’s whenhealthy, but, injuries year’s last to due wassomewhat difficult line offensive the Ranking last year’s injuries, Cowboys quarterbacks were pressured on just 32.6% of dropbacks (ranked 13th). (ranked dropbacks 32.6%of just on pressured wereCowboys quarterbacks injuries, year’s last

The Cowboys’ front seven was among the worst in every aspect of the game, especially versus the run. Even when stacking the box with 7+ defenders,7+ with box the Evenwhen stacking run. the versus game,especially the of aspect every in wassevenamongworst the TheCowboys’front opponents picked up 4.7 yards per carry (ranked 30th). Five draft picks spent on the front seven should help, but it won’t be a quick fix. quick a be won’t it but help, should seven front the on spent picks draft Five 30th). (ranked carry per yards 4.7 up picked opponents

Rookie Kelvin Joseph might help a struggling secondary, but the unit will remain in the bottom tier as long as is a liability. Diggs allowed 1.6 yards 1.6 allowed Diggs liability. a is Diggs Trevon as long as tier bottom the in remain will unit the but secondary, struggling a help Josephmight Kelvin Rookie per coverage snap, ranked 80th out of 82 qualified . qualified 82 of out 80th ranked snap, coverage per

If head coach Mike McCarthy grew as a coach from his year away from football it was hard to tell during his first season in Dallas. Although, it’s fair to wonder to fair it’s Although, Dallas. seasonin first his during tell to washard it football away from year his fromcoacha asMcCarthygrew Mikeheadcoach If how things may have been different with a healthy roster. Among coaches with at least three years experience, only ranks lower than McCarthy. than lower Gruden Jonranks only experience, years three least Amongat coacheswith roster. healthy a with maybeendifferent have howthings

DAL-4 behind the same terrible offensive line. Pollard is a fourth-rounder, Zeke was drafted fourth overall. fourth Zekewasdrafted fourth-rounder, a is Pollard line. offensive sameterrible the behind

And yet, Pollard’s EPA/att was -0.02 (on 80 att) after Dak’s injury compared to Zeke’s -0.12 (on 137 att). On the season overall, Pollard gained 0.13 yards 0.13 gained Pollard seasonoverall, On the att). 137 (on -0.12 Zeke’s compared to injury Dak’s after att) 80 (on was-0.02 EPA/att Pollard’s Andyet, above expectation, nearly double Zeke’s 0.07. Zeke’s double nearly aboveexpectation,

Against standard seven-man boxes after Dak’s injury, the splits weren’t close: weren’t splits the injury, Dak’s seven-manafter boxesstandard Against

Elliott: 3.3 YPC, 46% success, -0.18 EPA/att YPC,-0.18 46% 3.3 success, Elliott: Pollard: 4.9 YPC, 52% success, +0.04 EPA/attYPC,+0.04 52% 4.9 success, Pollard:

Against light boxes, Pollard was gaining +0.14 EPA/att compared to Zeke’s -0.09 EPA/att. The only place Zeke was better was, unsurprisingly, against stacked against unsurprisingly, was, Zekewasbetter place Theonly EPA/att. -0.09 Zeke’s compared to EPA/att +0.14 wasgaining Pollard boxes, light Against boxes (although Zeke was still averaging -0.07 EPA/att against those stacked boxes). We know Elliott is the better pedigree back with more talent in his in moretalent with back pedigree better the is We knowElliott boxes). stacked those against EPA/att -0.07 averaging Zekewasstill (although boxes prime. But these stats do make you wonder what Zeke will deliver over the next six years of his current contract. current his of years six next the over deliver makeZekewill dowonderwhatyou stats these But prime.

At this point, we could ask the question of how great is Zeke? In 2019, his highest season since his rookie year, he finished 18th in player tracking player in 18th finished he year, rookie his touchdownseasonsince highest his 2019, Zeke?In is howgreat of question the ask wecould point, this At metric Rushing Yards Over Expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. In 2018, his best season as a pro since that rookie year, he ranked 15th. ranked he year, rookie that since pro a seasonas best his 2018, In GenNFLNextStats. per Expectation, OverYardsRushing metric

Zeke also has 21 fumbles in his five year career, seven more than the next highest running back in that time, including 15 in his last three years. Andis years. three last his in 15 including time, that in back running highest next the more seventhan career, year five his in fumbles 21has Zekealso coming off a year with six fumbles, a career high. career a fumbles, six with year a comingoff (cont'd - see - (cont'd DAL-5 ) CLICK HERE to get 400+ page book 5 SharpFootballAnalysis.com DAL-5 &Position Player Usageby 2020Situational No one would have expected the Cowboys to make the playoffs without playoffs Cowboysmake the the to expectedhave Nowouldone Prescott. But seven wins were enough to win the NFC East. What better way Whatbetter NFC East. the win enoughwereto winsseven But Prescott. to show that elite running backs matter than by putting the team on his back, his onteam the putting by than matter backs running elite showthat to ScorebyUsageRate supporting below average quarterback play and a banged up offensive line? bangedoffensive upaand play quarterback averagebelow supporting Being Large DownBig Blowout BlownOut OneScore Lead But in his 10 games after Prescott’s injury, Elliott exceeded the NFLaverageexceeded the Elliott injury, Prescott’s games10 after his in But (9-13) Lead(14+) in YPC (4.4 yards) just twice. One of which was vs the No. 27 run defense ofdefense run 27 No. the wasvs which One of twice. just yards) YPC (4.4 in (14+) (9-13) the Vikings and the other, a Week 16 win over the Eagles, which saw him gainsawhim which Eagles, the overWeeka win 16 other, the and Vikings the Ezekiel Elliott Ezekiel 18% 7% 66% 9% 4.1 YPC on 18 runs and 31 yards on a 19th run to up his average from 4.1 from average his up to run 19th a on yards 31and YPC runs 184.1 on YPC to 5.5 YPC. 5.5 YPC to Pollard Tony 18% 7% 62% 11% 3%

If Elliott needs elite quarterback performance to have success as well as anas well as successhave to performance quarterback needselite Elliott If CooperAmari 13% 88% elite offensive line, he’s absolutely not worth $90 million and especially not especially and million $90 worth not absolutely he’s line, offensive elite

worth $14 million cap hits — which is what he’ll hit the Cowboys cap for in Cowboys for the cap hit he’ll what —is which hits cap million $14 worth RUSH CeeDeeLamb 10% 10% 60% 20% each of the next three years and in five of the next six — particularly whena — particularly six next the of five in and years three next the of each Cedrick Wilson Cedrick 100% second-year player drafted in the fourth-round is outproducing him. outproducing is fourth-round the in drafted player second-year Total 17% 7% 65% 10% 1% Here's a sobering thought: running back Ezekiel Elliott's total cap hit the next the hit cap total Elliott's Ezekiel back running thought: sobering a Here's two years is higher than 's. Elliott’s cap hit this year is higher than higher is year this hit cap Elliott’s Tom thanBrady's. higher is years two Elliott Ezekiel 37% 11% 48% 4% the hits for both and Tom Brady...the quarterbacks that won that Mahomesquarterbacks TomandPatrick Brady...the both for hits the the last three Super Bowls.Super three last the Pollard Tony 28% 8% 60% 3% 3% Amari CooperAmari 25% 12% 56% 8% At the end of the day, I was left with two thoughts that I think can be takenbecan think I that thoughts two with wasleft I day, the of end the At away from the Cowboys offense in 2020 despite the injuries: I walked awaywalked I injuries: the 2020despite in Cowboys the offense away from CeeDeeLamb 25% 7% 64% 4% more disappointed in their coaching (from a playcalling, adjustments, and adjustments, playcalling, a (from coaching their in moredisappointed

game planning perspective) and more convinced paying Ezekiel Elliott won’t Elliott Ezekiel paying moreandconvinced perspective) game planning PASS Gallup Michael 22% 9% 64% 5% be worth it and was a mistake.wasanda it worth be Dalton 28% 7% 62% 3% My colleague, Rich Hribar, advocates buying Elliott in fantasy football this year this football fantasy in Elliott buying advocates Hribar, Rich Mycolleague, Cedrick Wilson Cedrick 43% 11% 46% if his price is depressed off of last season’s failure, envisioning a stronger, a envisioning failure, season’s last of off depressed is price his if healthier offensive line and the return of Prescott. I agree that a healthier line healthier a that agree I Prescott. of return the and line offensive healthier Total 27% 9% 59% 5% 0% and better passing game certainly will help his performance, becausethe performance, his help will game passingcertainly better and absence of both hindered his performance tremendously.performance his hindered both absenceof Share of Offensive Plays by Typeby Plays Offensive of Share Both of these things spill over into 2021. But the good news is, Prescott is Prescott goodnewsis, the But 2021. into over spill things these of Both back and the Cowboys’ offensive line should be much better than it wasin it than muchbebetter should line Cowboys’offensive the andback 2020. Let’s keep in mind, however, that the Dallas offensive line continuity line offensive Dallas the that however, mind, in keep Let’s 2020. (cont'd - see - (cont'd DAL-6 ) Division History: SeasonWins&2021Projection History: Division Tony Pollard Tony Ezekiel Elliott Ezekiel Amari Dalton Schultz Dalton CeeDee Lamb CeeDee Michael 14 14 Wilson Cedrick 12 12 RUSH 65% 30% 2% 3% 1% 10 10 PASS 13% 7% 23% 19% 18% 15% 5% 8 8 ALL 33% 16% 14% 12% 11% 9% 3% 6 6 Dak Prescott Comp % by Depth - Early Downs CompEarly DakPrescott Depthby- % CPOE 4 4 100% 2 2

0 0 80% 2017Wins 2018Wins 2019Wins 2020Wins 2021 Forecast Wins 60% Rank of 2021 Defensive Pass Efficiency Faced by WeekFacedby Efficiency 2021 Pass DefensiveRank of 50% 40% H A H A H H A 20% A H A A H H 0% A A 0 10 20 30 40 50 HA Dak Prescott Comp % by Depth - 3rd DownComp3rd DakPrescott Depthby- % CPOE 5 18 2623 24 19 13 11 17 12 22 4 2 24 2 10 26 100% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011 121314 151617 18

Rank of 2021 Defensive Rush Efficiency Faced by WeekFacedby 2021RushEfficiency DefensiveRank of 80% A A A A H H 60% H 50% H A H 40% H HA A H 20% A A 1 28 12 21 16 32 27 25 6 29 31 2 13 16 13 14 12 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011 121314 151617 18 0 10 20 30 40 50 CLICK HERE to get 400+ page book 6 SharpFootballAnalysis.com Successful Play RateSuccessfulPlay Summary Analytics 2020 Detailed 0% 100% Success by Play TypeGroupingsPersonnel&Primary Play by Success

Type [3WR] 1-1 [2WR] 1-2 [4WR] 1-0 [1WR] 1-3 [2WR] 2-1 [1WR] 2-2 [5WR] 0-0 [4WR] 0-1 [3WR] 2-0 ALL

PASS (513) 51%,-0.01 (77) 48%, 0.00 (20) 35%,-0.05 (4) 50%,-0.53 (7) 29%,-0.52 (1) 100%, 0.37 (2) 0%,-1.76 (4) 25%,-0.18 (2) 0%,-3.07 (630) 49%,-0.03

RUSH (216)51%, 0.09 (144) 51%,-0.18 (3) 33%, 0.36 (18) 39%,-0.17 (2) 50%,-0.01 (6) 83%, 0.58 (4) 0%,-1.20 (1) 0%,-0.61 (3) 67%, 0.47 (397) 50%,-0.02

All (729)51%, 0.02 (221) 50%,-0.11 (23) 35%, 0.00 (22) 41%,-0.23 (9) 33%,-0.40 (7) 86%, 0.55 (6) 0%,-1.39 (5) 20%,-0.26 (5) 40%,-0.95 (1,027) 50%,-0.03

Success Rate, EPA (Total # of Plays) of # FormatEPA Success(Total Rate, Receiving Success by Top-4 Personnel GroupingsTop-4Personnelby Success Receiving GroupingsTop-4Personnelby Success Rushing (Leaderboard) (Leaderboard)

POS Player [3WR] 1-1 [2WR] 1-2 [4WR] 1-0 [2WR] 2-1 GrpTotal 4 [3WR] 1-1 [2WR] 1-2 [1WR] 2-2 [2WR]4 2-1 GrpTotal Ezekiel 54%(56) 43%(7) 0%(1) 52%(64) RB Elliott -0.17 5.2, -0.99 3.1, -0.78 0.0, -0.27 4.9, Elliott 47%(116) 56%(91) 100%(4) 50%(2) 52%(213) Dalton 62%(78) 60%(5) 0%(1) 61%(84) Ezekiel -0.07 3.9, -0.10 4.5, 0.86 3.0, -0.01 4.5, -0.07 4.1, TE Schultz 0.16 6.8, 0.02 4.2, -0.60 0.0, 0.14 6.6, Blake 100%(1) 100%(1) Pollard 52%(52) 42%(36) 100%(1) 48%(89) Jarwin 0.49 12.0, 0.49 12.0, Tony 0.17 5.5, -0.26 2.8, 0.47 7.0, 0.00 4.4, Amari 65%(92) 70%(20) 50%(4) 66%(116) WR Cooper 0.39 8.7, 0.53 12.3, -1.00 4.0, 0.37 9.2, Dalton 63%(16) 33%(3) 58%(19) Andy 0.71 5.7, -1.74 2.3, 0.32 5.2, CeeDee 54%(95) 0%(4) 20%(5) 50%(104) Lamb 0.22 9.0, -0.32 0.0, 0.20 7.2, 0.20 8.5, Prescott 50%(12) 0%(1) 46%(13) Michael 52%(66) 42%(19) 40%(5) 0%(1) 48%(91) Dak 0.24 5.8, -0.55 1.0, 0.18 5.4, Gallup 0.31 8.6, 0.14 6.4, 0.11 10.6, -0.39 1.0, 0.25 8.2,

Line 1: Success Rate (Total # of Plays) Line 2: YPA,EPA 2: Line Plays) of # (Total SuccessRate Format1: Line YPC,EPA 2: Line Plays) of # Format(Total SuccessRate 1: Line Passing by Passing by Passing ThrowTypes QBDropTypes Pass at QB State RunTypes Coverage Route 53%(279) 55%(433) Outside 48%(116) 58%(436) Step3 Planted Scheme 1Level 0.06 7.4, 0.20 7.6, Zone -0.12 4.0, 63%(103) 0.12 6.4, Curl 49%(79) 6.7, 0.22 6.7, Moving 60%(120) 0.08 6.9, Inside 52%(93) 0/1 Step 0/1 57%(303) 47%(97) 0.24 7.0, Zone -0.01 4.1, Zone 2Level 45%(73) 7.8, 0.14 7.8, 70%(74) 0.30 10.2, Shuffling Out -0.30 5.4, 7.3, 0.22 7.3, 49%(61) 41%(22) 5 Step5 0.15 8.1, Stretch -0.34 4.7, 36%(25) Level 3Level Action Play 63%(56) 0.57 15.7, 53%(159) Slant Designed 58%(36) 55%(20) M2M 0.35 9.3, ActionPlay NoP/A Power 7.3, 0.23 7.3, Right Rollout 0.16 7.1, 0.02 3.5, 54%(76) 44%(32) 17%(6) Under 55%(31) Shovel 0.09 8.3, 0.01 6.5, Dig -1.16 1.7, 50%(20) Center 38%(16) 7.0, 0.17 7.0, ScreenBasic Pitch 7.4, 0.16 7.4, 52%(61) 48%(462) -0.05 3.0, Shotgun 47%(58) -0.12 8.0, -0.05 6.9, Screen 5.2, -0.07 5.2, 50%(24) 0%(4) Drag Sidearm 56%(18) 53%(137) 48%(494) 80%(5) 5.5, -0.05 5.5, -0.56 3.3, Step7 ALL Lead 12.7, 0.71 12.7, 0.00 8.2, -0.04 6.9, 0.48 2.4,

DAL-6 wasn’t even 10th-worst in the NFL last year. Although they did suffer the second-most games lost due to injury, they did have stretches with the samestarters. the with stretches have did they injury, to due second-mostgames lost the suffer did they Although year. NFLlast the in 10th-worst even wasn’t W hile some teams went only two consecutive games with the same line, the Cowboys went five games (something that 16 teams can’t claim to have done).have to claim can’t teams16 gamesthat (something Cowboys five the went sameline, the games with consecutive two someonly wentteams While

But though this line will still have many of the names we recognize, they aren’t as productive as they once were. LT Tyron Smith is in his 11th season and hasseasonand 11th his in is Smith Tyron LT were. once they as productive as aren’t they names wethe recognize, many haveof still will line this though But been plagued by neck and back injuries. From November 2018 thru December 2020 (just over two years) Smith missed 19 games, with almost all of them of all almost games,with 19missed Smith years) two over DecemberFromNovember 2020(just 2018thru injuries. backand neck by beenplagued related to his neck or back. RT La’el Collins returns from hip surgery and needed his agent to tweet that “no, my client is not retiring.” According to reports to According retiring.” not is myclient “no, that tweet to agent neededandhis surgery hip from returns Collins RTLa’el back. or neck his to related having discussions with NFL executives and scouts, some believe the importance of a center has eclipsed the left , due to today’s complex defenses andcomplexdefenses today’s to due tackle, left the eclipsed has center a of importance the somebelieve scouts, and NFLexecutives with discussions having the center’s need to make the right line calls. While I don’t know if I completely agree, I can say the center position has been underrated for a while. And while. a for beenunderrated has position center the say can I agree, completely I knowif don’t I While calls. line right make the needto center’s the we’ve taken advantage of that from a betting perspective for several years now. The downgrade from former center Travis Fredrick to is Biadasz Tyler to Fredrick Travis center Thedowngradeformer from now. years several for perspective betting a from that of advantage taken we’ve measurable.

One thing that never fell off in 2020 and is here to stay in 2021 is the stud receiving corps. corps. receiving stud the 2021is in stay to here is 2020and in off fell never that Onething AmariCooper , GallupMichael and , CeeDeeLamb 16 all played games last year and return to do the same this year. samethis the do to return and year gameslast

Dallas is also hoping the removal of one-and-done defensive coordinator Mike Nolan in exchange for former Falcons head coach DanheadcoachmakesQuinn Falconsa former exchangefor in Nolan Mike coordinator one-and-donedefensive of removal the hoping also is Dallas difference. We shall see if that helps, but it certainly can’t hurt. Here are Dan Quinn’s defensive ranks in Atlanta based on EDSR (Early DownEDSRbasedon Success Rate): (Early Atlanta in ranks defensive Dan Quinn’s are Here hurt. can’t certainly it but helps, that if see We shall difference.

2015: 312015: 2016: 272016: 2017: 302017: 2018: 292018: 2019: 32 (before firing himself from calling plays) calling from himself firing (before 32 2019:

A completely new set of players, with substantial investment on the defensive side of the ball, has the potential to help Quinn. The Cowboys invested their first their TheCowboys Quinn. invested help to potential the has ball, the of side defensive the on investment substantial with players, of newset completely A six draft picks from 2021 into their defense, and their four highest paid players signed in this year’s free agent class were all defenders. Dallas knowsthey Dallas defenders. all were class agent free year’s this in signed players paid highest four their and defense, their 2021into from picks draft six won’t win the NFC East with offense and a terrible defense, and they’ve set out to improve on it in 2021 via personnel and coaching.and personnel 2021via in it on improve to out set they’ve and defense, terrible aand offense NFCwith East the win won’t (cont'd - see - (cont'd DAL-7 ) CLICK HERE to get 400+ page book 7 SharpFootballAnalysis.com DAL-7

Your outlook for the 2021 Cowboys depends on what area you want to focus on most. This offense should be just as impressive as they were to start the start to were they as impressive as just be should offense This most. on focus to want2021Cowboysyou area the dependswhaton for outlook Your season last year with Dak, but they’re unlikely to be a fully optimized unit. I haven’t loved most of what I’ve seen from Kellen Moore but I certainly don’t see himsee don’t certainly I Moore but Kellen fromseen I’ve what of most loved haven’t I unit. optimized fully a be to unlikely they’re but Dak, with year seasonlast as an extreme liability or a bottom-third offensive coordinator. offensive bottom-third a or liability extremean as

That said, there were countless times I scratched my head at either individual play calls, strategies or lack of adjustments and wondered if Moore is going to going Mooreis wonderedandif adjustments of lack or strategies calls, play individual either myheadat scratched I times countless were there said, That eventually get better at this. While this is just a mere drop in the bucket, it’s an interesting anecdote. As bad as the Cowboys were the first 16 weeks of the weeks16of Cowboysfirst the wereasbad As anecdote. interesting an it’s bucket, the in meredrop a just is this While this. at better get eventually season, despite sitting at 6-9, they were alive to win the NFC East if they beat the Giants in Week 17 and got some help. But in that must-win game,through must-win that in But someWeekhelp. got and 17 in Giants the beat they NFCif East the win to alive were they 6-9, at sitting despite season, 24 minutes, Dallas had just two passing yards. Two! There’s simply no way, even with Andy Dalton, that a reasonable offensive coordinator could allow that to that allow could coordinator offensive reasonable a that AndyDalton, with evenway, no simply There’s Two! yards. passing two just had Dallas minutes, 24 happen.

Remembering the good times, with the supercharged offense at the beginning of the season, the question is: where did that supercharged offense get them get offense supercharged that wheredid is: question the season, the of beginning the at offense supercharged the with Rememberinggoodtimes, the with a healthy Prescott? They went 2-3 with him as the starter. One win came against the 4-12 Falcons by one point, which required Dallas to outscore Atlanta outscore to Dallas required which point, oneby Falcons 4-12 the cameOneagainst win starter. the as him with 2-3 Theywent Prescott? healthy a with 30-10 in the second half including an insane onsides kick blunder by Atlanta. The second was a 3-point win over the 6-10 Giants. At the end of the day, they day, the of end the At Giants. 6-10 the over win 3-point Thesecondwasa Atlanta. by blunder kick onsides insane an including secondhalf the in 30-10 must find a way to consistently win against decent NFLteams.decent against win consistently wayto a find must

In Prescott’s starts, 93% of the Cowboys’ drives began when the game was tied or they were trailing, fourth-most in the NFL behind only the Jets, Jaguars andJaguars Jets, the only NFLbehind the in fourth-most trailing, were they or gamebeganwhen was the tied Cowboys’ drives the 93% of starts, Prescott’s In W ashington. That’s not in the games he missed, that’s whenDak played! that’s games missed, hethe in not That’s Washington.

This defense cannot be worse prepared or coached than they were for most of last season, but there’s no assurance the players and newandcoachesthey’re players the assuranceno there’s but season, last of most for were they coached than or prepared worsebe cannot defense This adding will help boost the defense meaningfully. defense the boost help will adding

The schedule bodes well for the Cowboys. I forecast them to play the sixth-easiest schedule, predominantly due to the fact that they face a considerable a face they that fact the to due predominantly schedule, sixth-easiest the play to them forecast Cowboys.I the for bodeswell Theschedule number of bad offenses outside their own subpar division. This could help their defense significantly (although they played bad offenses in 2019 as well). The well). 2019as in offenses bad played they (although significantly defense their help could This division. ownsubpar their outside offenses bad numberof largest shift for them comes from run defenses. Last year, Elliott and company faced the NFL’s second-toughest schedule of run defenses. I predict they will they predict I defenses. run of schedule second-toughest NFL’s companyandthe faced Elliott year, Last defenses. runcomesthem from for shift largest face the ninth-easiest schedule of run defenses in 2020. The 2021 Cowboys need to improve in a lot of different areas but there is a reasonable path forward path reasonable a is there but areas different of lot a in The2021Cowboysimprove 2020. needto in defenses run of schedule ninth-easiest the face for this team to finally meet expectations. meet finally to team this for

The Cowboys 2021 win total is 9.5. In 21 seasons since 2000, Dallas has exceeded it’s win total the second least often of any team. “America’s Team”has “America’s team. any of often secondleast the total win exceededhasit’s Dallas 2000, seasonssince 21 In 9.5. is TheCowboystotal 2021 win exceeded pre-season expectations only seven times in those 21 years (33%). Only the have doneworse.haveJaguars Jacksonville the Only (33%). years 21 those in times seven only expectations exceededpre-season

Dallas has been favored to win in 18 games the last two years with Dak Prescott in the lineup. “America’s Team” is just 9-9 straight up and 7-11 ATS7-11(38.9%). andup straight 9-9 just Team”is “America’s lineup. the in DakPrescott with years two last games18 the in win to beenfavored has Dallas Only the Jets, Falcons and Panthers have done worse winning games they were favored in, but those teams were favored by two points fewer per game peron fewer points two by favored wereteams those but in, favored weregames they winning doneworsehave Panthersand Falcons Jets, the Only average, meaning they shouldn’t win as many of the games. the many asof win shouldn’t meaning they average,

They say everything is bigger in Texas, and that applies to the perception of the Cowboys. We’ll see if a return to health, a new defensive coordinator and aand coordinator newdefensive a health, to return a if see We’ll Cowboys. the of perception the to applies that and Texas, in bigger is everything Theysay very easy schedule will be enough to take Dallas to the playoffs in 2021. in playoffs the to Dallas take enoughbeto will schedule easy very

(cont'd - see - (cont'd DAL-8 ) Immediate Impact of Dallas CowboysClass 2021 Dallas Draft Immediate of Impact

It’s widely believed the Cowboys hoped to land a in the first round (either (either round first the in cornerback a Cowboysland the hopedto believed widely It’s II Surtain Patrick or JayceeHorn when adjust to forced were but ) neither were on the board. As a result, they may not get as much production from this draft class as originally planned. originally as class draft this from muchasproduction get may not they result, aAs board. the onwere neither

(first round) could see immediate playing time, but the extent of his role may depend on the health of of health may dependthe on role his of LBextent the Micahbut Parsons time, playing immediatesee could round) (first VanderLeightonEsch whohas , missed 13 games over the last two seasons.two last gamesthe 13missed over

Parsons played in high school and only played two years at Penn State (he opted out in 2020), and is understandably still raw in his coverage his in raw still understandably is and 2020), in out opted (he PennState at years two played only and school high in end defensive played Parsons ability. During his final college season, Parsons blitzed on 20.5% of snaps and he’s clearly more comfortable in that role. that in morecomfortable clearly he’s andsnaps 20.5%onof blitzed Parsons season, college final his During ability.

If Vander Esch is healthy, we may see Parsons used more frequently in sub-packages as a pass-rusher, while he develops the rest of his game. his of rest the develops he while pass-rusher, a sub-packagesas in wemoremayusedfrequently Parsonssee healthy, VanderEschis If

Parsons may also have competition for playing time from LB from time playing for competition have mayParsonsalso last snapcoverage per yards Cox 0.2 CoxJabril allowed coverage. in whoexcels round) (fourth season at LSU after transferring from North Dakota State, and had almost as many passses defensed and interceptions (eight) as completions allowed (12). allowed completions as (eight) manyinterceptions andasdefensedpassses almost hadand State, Dakota North from transferring LSUafter seasonat

Due to the Cowboys’ depleted secondary CBsecondary Cowboys’depleted the Dueto developmental the for Joseph Kelvinexpectations immediate but role, starting a on may take round) (second prospect should be held in check. in held be should prospect

On throws at least seven yards downfield, Joseph allowed a deserved catch rate (the rate at which DBs allow catches on catchable targets, accounting for accounting targets, catchable on catches DBsallow which at rate (the rate catch deserved a Josephallowed downfield, yards seven least at On throws drops) of 81.8%, among the worst rates in the SEC. the in rates amongworst 81.8%, the of drops)

Surprisingly, the rookie with the most obvious path to playing time might be DTbe might time playing to path obvious most the with rookie the Surprisingly, QuintonBohanna tackle. nose at round) (sixth

Last year Dallas primarily used primarily Dallas year Last Poe Dontari and October) in (released on tackle nose true a Antwuan with upWoods whenlining draft) the after (released the defensive line. defensive the

New defensive coordinator coordinator New defensive DanQuinn aon either relied in snaps402 playing Davison with season, Davison Tyeler last Falcons Atlanta the with role that for zero or one-tech position (nose tackle). So it’s safe to assume someone will need to step up to fill that spot in Dallas. in spot that fill to up step needto assume someoneto will safe Soit’s tackle). (nose position one-tech or zero

(third round) weighed in at just 282 pounds at his pro day, so he’s ill-suited for nose tackle. However, The 6’4”, 327-poundBohanna is The6’4”, However, tackle. nose for ill-suited DThe’s so day, Osa pro Odighizuwa his pounds282at just at weighedin round) (third the nose tackle prototype and played 429 snaps as the zero or one-tech in Kentucky’s defense in 2020. in defense Kentucky’s in one-tech or zero the assnaps 429 played and prototype tackle nose the

(third round) could factor into the pass-rush mix, potentially helping to replace replace to helping DE Chaunceypotentially Golstonmix, pass-rush the into factor could round) (third AldonSmith and TyroneCrawford Golston . generated a 16% pressure rate versus three and five-step dropbacks, ranking seventh in the Big Ten. Big the in seventh ranking dropbacks, five-step and three versus rate 16%a pressure generated

(third round) was a surprising name to hear called on Day 2, but has the ideal profile of a cornerback in Quinn’s defense. With his size his With defense. Quinn’s in cornerback a of profile CBideal the has but Nahshon Day2, on Wright called hear name to surprising wasa round) (third (6’4”), Quinn will hope to develop him into a physical outside corner. outside physical a into him develop hopeto will Quinn (6’4”),

W hile Dallas was probably disappointed to miss out on Surtain and Horn, they were smart to trade down from their original spot and acquire some extra picks. someextra acquire and spot original their down from trade to smartwere they Horn, and Surtain on out miss to disappointed wasprobably Dallas While There are some decisions to quibble with quibble to somedecisions are There pick top-12 a of worthy value has off-ball any whether 一primarily potential of quantity sheer 一 the but starters helps balance out the risks in this draft class. draft this in risks the out balance helps starters CLICK HERE to get 400+ page book 8 SharpFootballAnalysis.com Dallas CowboysRecap &20212020 OutlookDallas Passing Target Postive Distribution % Play Through five games with Throughfive (10th drives offensive Dak Prescott its touchdown32.8%onof a scored had Dallas year, last in the league) while averaging 32.6 points per game. After Prescott was injured, the Cowboystouchdownona the scored wasinjured, Prescott game.After per points 32.6 averaging while league) the in 50 16.9% of their drives (31st) and averaged 21.1 points per game (24th). From a passing stance, prior to Prescott’s injury, Prescott’s to prior stance, passing Froma game per(24th). points 21.1 averagedand (31st) drives their 16.9%of 40 he was leading the league in dropbacks per game (48.0) while Dallas had a 55% success rate through the air in air the through 55%arate had success Dallas while game per(48.0) dropbacks in league the wasleading he Prescott’s starts compared to a 45% success rate afterward. After playing 2020 on the franchise tag, Dallas and Dallas tag, franchise the 2020on playing After afterward. 45%arate successcompared to starts Prescott’s 30 Prescott came to a four-year agreement this offseason to end the questions on his future with the team. Dallas suffered Dallas team. the with future his on questions the end to offseason agreementthis four-year a came to Prescott the second-most adjusted games missed across their offensive line in 2020 at 46.4 per Football Outsiders and will enter will and Outsiders Football per 46.4 2020at in line offensive their games across missedsecond-mostadjusted the 20 2021 healthy there as well. as there 2021healthy 10

2020 Standard Passing Table 2020Passing Standard 0 QB Comp Att Comp% Yds YPA TDs INT Sacks Rating Rk -10 AndyDalton 235 366 64% 2,378 6.5 16 8 26 88 30 DakPrescott 151 222 68% 1,855 8.4 9 4 10 100 12 Rating DakPrescott Early Downs Early NFLAvg 64% 7.1 90.1

2020AdvancedTable Passing 158 147 78 EDSR 20+ Yd20+ Yd30+ AirAvg. Avg. Air20+ Success Passing Yd20+ Yd30+ Air20+ QB Pass Pass Ydsper YACper Yd % Success Pass% Pass% Yd% Gains Gains Comp Comp Comp % 104 DakPrescott 56% 60% 25 11.0% 9 4.0% 6.7 5.6 11 5% 87 96 AndyDalton 47% 52% 23 6.0% 12 3.0% 5.0 5.2 8 2%

NFLAvg 47% 50% 33.3 8.6% 12.0 3.0% 5.9 5.2 14.9 4%

Interception Rates by Downby Rates Analysis Sticks of Short Down- 3rd Passing YAC vs Yds Air Avg. YIAAvg. ofShort Yards to Go Yardsto Dwn 1st 2ndDwn3rd Dwn Dwn 4th Total AvgYds Air YAC QB Ydsto (of Sticks RkShort Rk 1 & 2& 1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Short Yds% % Go Comp) Rate 3, 4, 5 4, 3, 0.0% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% 6 - 9 - 6 33.3% 3.2% 0.0% 3.9% DakPrescott 8.5 6.6 -2.0 72% 5 54% 46% 20 10 - 14 - 10 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 0.8% 15+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% NFLAvg 8.8 5.6 -3.1 72% 52% 48% Total 1.0% 2.5% 2.3% 0.0% 1.7%

2020 Receiving Recap2020&2021 Receiving Outlook AmariCooper CeeDeeLamb Following the theme so far, Dallas receivers had a tale of two seasons based on the availability the seasonsbasedon two of tale ahad receivers Dallas far, themeso the Following Distribution Target Distribution Target of Dak Prescott. Through five weeks, the Cowboys were fifth in success rate targeting wide targeting rate success in Cowboys fifth the wereweeks, five Through DakPrescott. of receivers (64%) and 14th targeting tight ends (56%) while sixth in yards per target to wideouts to target per yards in sixth while (56%)ends tight targeting 14th and(64%) receivers 50 (9.9 yards) and 11th to tight ends (7.9 yards). For the remainder of the season, Dallas was27th Dallas season, the of remainder the For yards). (7.9 ends tight to 11th and yards) (9.9 in yards per target (7.1 yards) to wideouts and 23rd to tight ends (6.6 yards). Dallas arguably has arguably Dallas yards). (6.6 ends tight to 23rd and wideouts to yards) (7.1 target per yards in 40 the best WR1-WR3 depth charts in the league in in league the WR1-WR3 in best the charts depth AmariCooper , CeeDeeLamb and , Michael . They will also be getting getting be Gallup also will They . ago. JarwinyearBlakeasnaps 25 but all missing of off back Jarwin has turned in 8.8 yards per target and 11.6 yards per grab over his early-career sample. early-career his over grab per yards 11.6 and target per yards 8.8 in turned has Jarwin 30 %

Rk Rk Rk 20 TDs YPA Targ Rating % YTS YAS % YAS Missed YPA Rk YPA Comp % Comp Player Targets50 *Min Success Success AmariCooper 130 71% 8.6 96.8 63% 14 9 43 67 5 10

CeeDeeLamb 109 68% 8.6 102.0 51% 81 70 32 air) 114(in 5 Distance Pass M ichael GallupMichael 106 56% 8.0 97.3 47% 110 120 36 94 5 0 Dalton SchultzDalton 89 71% 6.9 95.5 61% 21 11 97 27 4 Ezekiel Elliott Ezekiel 73 71% 4.6 72.7 51% 90 99 113 4 2 -10

2020RecapRushing&2021 Outlook Direction by Carry per Yards Dallas ended the 2020 season 12th in rushing EPA, but 20th in success rate (49%) on the ground the on(49%) rate success in 20th EPA,but rushing in 2020season12th endedthe Dallas in 2020. in Elliott 47%a Ezekiel carried 2020and in touch per yards 4.4 career-low aaveraged success rate, but backup but rate, success elements offensive deteriorating Tony Pollardthe of sting the felt also 5.3 5.43.33.82.84.1 4.0 a year ago as his 41% success rate on the ground was the fifth-lowest in the league amongleague all the in fifth-lowest wasthe ground the on 41%rate success his asago year a backs with 50-plus attempts. Dallas played last season basically down both starting offensive starting down both seasonbasically last played Dallas attempts. 50-plus with backs tackles as tackles while TyronSmith injury neck a games twoto due just in played Collins La’El missed the entire season dealing with hip and groin injuries in training camp. With both tackles out, tackles both Withcamp. training in injuries groin and hip with seasondealing entire the All-Pro right guard right All-Pro line ZachMartinoffensive the With 2020. in games himself six missed also healthy entering the season and Prescott back under center, the run game should rebound.game shouldrun the center, under back Prescott seasonand the entering healthy Directional RunFrequency Directional Rk TDs YPC Rushes YTS % Rk % YTS YAS % Rk % YAS Success % Success Success % Success Early Down Down Early Early Success Rk Success Rk Success Player Rushes50 *Min YPA Missed 9% 18%13%23%11%19% 8%

Ezekiel Elliott Ezekiel 244 4.0 49% 59 16 66 70 47% 65 6

TonyPollard 113 4.5 48% 65 66 56 37 44% 78 6

CLICK HERE to get 400+ page book 9 SharpFootballAnalysis.com Fantasy Advice, Targets andAnalysis Targets Advice, Fantasy

Buy any dip with Ezekiel Elliott Ezekiel withBuy anydip

Elliott averaged a career-low 4.4 yards per touch, but was still a workhorse, averaging 19.7 touches per game, which was eighth among all running backs in backs running among all waseighth game, which per touches 19.7 averaging workhorse, a wasstill but touch, per yards 4.4 career-low aaveraged Elliott 2020. Impacted by the injury of Dak Prescott, Elliott had six and 22.3 PPR points per game in the five games with Prescott active compared to just compared to active Prescott games with five the game perin PPR touchdowns 22.3 andpoints six had Elliott DakPrescott, of injury the by Impacted 2020. two touchdowns and 11.2 points per game after Prescott was lost for the season. the for waslost Prescott game perafter points touchdowns 11.2 andtwo

On top of losing Prescott, Elliott played behind a bludgeoned offensive line. Dallas played last season down both starting offensive tackles as Tyron SmithTyron as tackles offensive starting seasondown both last played Dallas line. bludgeonedoffensive a behind played Elliott Prescott, losing of On top played in just two games due to a neck injury while La’El Collins missed the entire season dealing with hip and groin injuries in training camp. With both tackles both Withcamp. training in injuries groin and hip with seasondealing entire the missed Collins La’El while injury neck a games two to due just in played out, All-Pro right guard Zach Martin also missed six games. All in all, Dallas suffered the second-most adjusted games missed across their offensive line in line offensive their games across missedsecond-mostadjusted the suffered Dallas all, in games.All six missed also ZachMartin guard right All-Pro out, 2020 at 46.4 per Football Outsiders. Dallas is still committed to Elliott as he carries $36.9 million and $23.2 million dead cap hits over the next two seasons. Asseasons. two next the over hits deadcap million $23.2 and million $36.9 carries he as Elliott to committed still is Dallas Outsiders. Football per 46.4 2020at a workhorse back, Elliott is one of just three backs (Alvin Kamara and Austin Ekeler) with at least 50 receptions the past two seasons. With Prescott back andback Prescott With seasons. two past the receptions 50 least at with Ekeler) Kamara Austin and (Alvin backs three just of one is Elliott back, workhorse a the offensive line healthy, Elliott should remain a pick in the front half of the first round of drafts and a potential bargain anywhereafterwards. bargain potential aand drafts of round first the of half front the in pick a remain should Elliott healthy, line offensive the

Are There Value Plays In The Dallas Offense?The Dallas In PlaysValueThereAre

Everyone loves the top of the Dallas offense as Elliott, Amari Cooper, and CeeDee Lamb will all be selected among the top-50 players in the majority of majority the in players amongtop-50 the selected be all CeeDeeand Cooper, Amari Lamb will Elliott, as offense Dallas the of top the Everyoneloves leagues this season. If you want a piece of the Dallas passing game, that is the capital required. But because of the quarterback position carrying variance per variance carrying position quarterback the becauseof But required. capital the is game,that passing Dallas the of piece a wantyou If season. this leagues draft, you may be able to catch a discount on Dak Prescott still. After being the QB3 in points per game in 2019 (21.1 points), Prescott was pacing the position the was pacing Prescott points), 2019(21.1 game perin points QB3 in the being After still. DakPrescott on discount a catch to mayable yoube draft, a year ago at 26.9 points per game through five games prior to missing the remainder of the season with a gruesome ankle injury. Prescott was averaging a wasaveraging Prescott injury. gruesome a ankle seasonwith the of remainder the missing to games prior five game perthrough points 26.9 at ago year a career-high 5.5 rushing points per game, so we will have to wait on the impact of the injury for his rushing performance. rushing his for injury the of impact the on wait to have wewill game,so per points rushing 5.5 career-high

After Prescott you will have a large to other Dallas selections, but both Michael Gallup and Blake Jarwin offer potential for their costs. After 66-1,107-6 in 66-1,107-6 After costs. their for potential offer Jarwin Blake and Gallup Michael both but selections, Dallas other to gap large ahave will you Prescott After 2019, Gallup took a step back in 2020, catching 59-of-105 targets for 843 yards and five touchdowns. Gallup did close the season on a positive note, with note, positive a seasonon the close did Gallup touchdowns. five and yards 843 for targets 59-of-105 catching 2020, in back step a took Gallup 2019, seven or more targets in six of his final nine games and a touchdown in three of his final five games. Gallup has bounce back potential with an unaccountedan with potential bouncebackhas games.Gallup five final his of three gamestouchdownin aand nine final his of six in moretargets or seven value spike should either Cooper or Lamb miss any time during the season. Jarwin made it just 25 snaps into the season before suffering an ACL injury after ACLaninjury suffering seasonbefore the into snaps25 just made it Jarwin season. the during time Lambany Coopermiss or either should spike value signing a contract extension. His replacement, Dalton Schultz, then went on to rank ninth among all tight ends in targets (89), but was largely a replacementa waslargely but (89), targets in ends tight among all ninth rank to onwent then Schultz, Dalton replacement, His extension. contract a signing level producer on those looks with 6.9 yards per target and 9.8 yards per catch. Jarwin has turned in 8.8 yards per target and 11.6 yards per grab over his over grab per yards 11.6 and target per yards 8.8 in turned has Jarwin catch. per yards 9.8 and target per yards 6.9 with looks those on producer level early-career sample. Jarwin needs to prove his health, but that is factored into his ADP which is lower than where it was as a popular target at this time a yeara time this at target popular a wasas whereit than lower ADPis which his into factored is that but health, his prove needsto Jarwin sample. early-career ago.

Dallas Cowboys PersonnelNumberDefense: Dallas vs DBs of TendenciesDef SurrenderedMap+Success Personnel 4 5 6 7 GrandTotal 50 % Rk % 7 plays plays 7 (2%) plays 284 (83%) plays 48 (14%) plays 3 (1%) plays 342 (100%) 1-1 [3WR] 1-1 57%Success: 45%Success: 38%Success: 33%Success: 44%Success: 40 EPA:-0.79 EPA:0.01 EPA:-0.27 EPA:-0.73 EPA:-0.05 Base 18% 26 34 plays plays 34 (38%) plays 52 (58%) plays 2 (2%) plays 1 (1%) plays 89 (100%) Nickel 70% 5 30 1-2 [2WR] 1-2 59%Success: 54%Success: 0%Success: 100%Success: 55%Success: EPA:0.30 EPA:0.29 EPA:-0.76 EPA:2.17 EPA:0.29 Dime+ 9% 18 16 plays plays 16 (43%) plays 21 (57%) plays 37 (100%) 20 2-1 [2WR] 2-1 56%Success: 43%Success: 49%Success: Rush3 11% 8 EPA:0.44 EPA:-0.12 EPA:0.12 Rush4 67% 10 3 plays plays 3 (50%) plays 3 (50%) plays 6 (100%) 10 2-2 [1WR] 2-2 33%Success: 67%Success: 50%Success: Rush5 17% 22 EPA:0.00 EPA:-1.05 EPA:-0.53 0 60 plays plays 60 (13%) plays 360 (76%) plays 50 (11%) plays 4 (1%) plays 474 (100%) Rush6+ 2% 28 Grand Success: 57%Success: 46%Success: 36%Success: 50%Success: 47%Success: Total 19% 26 EPA:0.19 EPA:0.04 EPA:-0.29 EPA:-0.01 EPA:0.02 Blitz% -10

Defensive OutlookDefensive The Dallas defense was so troublesome in 2020, the team used eight of 11 2021 draft picks on that side of the ball. the of side that on picks 2021draft 11 of eight usedteam the 2020, in troublesome wasso defense TheDallas Cowboys’interior the decimated Injuries before it really got going last season. last going got really it before of lack a With season. a half lasted Poeonly Donrari andACL, his tore McCoyGerald Hill Trysten field, the on got never pass rush in the interior, the Cowboys also matched that with not being able to stop the run. Dallas ranked 31st in Run Stop Win Rate, according to ESPN. to according Rate, WinRunStop in 31st ranked Dallas run. the stop to able being not with Cowboysmatchedthat the also interior, the in rush pass

was again one of the better pass rushers in the league, ranked 10th in ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate. But as a team, the Cowboys the only team, aDemarcus as But ESPN’s PassRushLawrenceRate. Win in 10th ranked league, the in rushers pass better the of one was again returned from his four-year suspension to start all 16 games for 14 quarterback hits and five sacks, but the 31-year-old wasnot 31-year-old the but sacks, 28th. rankedfive and hits quarterback 14 games16 for all AldonSmithstart to suspension four-year his from returned re-signed. re-signed. in 11th ranked Gregory rushes, pass150 least Randy at Gregory Amongwith snaps. edgerushers 124 defensive the 25% of playing only wasafter pressure rate. Lawrence ranked 13th. 13th. Lawrenceranked rate. pressure VanderLeightonEsch field, Even whenthe 2019. on gamesin played nine 2020after games 10 in played only lingering injury issues slowed him down a bit and he hasn’t been able to match the promise of his rookie season over the past two years. years. two past the seasonover rookie his of promise the match to beenable hasn’t heand downbit hima slowed issues injury lingering SmithJaylon has been able to stay healthy with all 16 games played over the past two seasons but there have been some inconsistencies in his game, especially whenVander game,especially his in beensomehave inconsistencies there seasonsbut two past the gamesover 16 played all with healthy stay to beenable Esch is not also on the field. the on also not Eschis

W ith coverage and health questions in the middle of the defense, the Cowboys the signed defense, the of middle the in questions health andcoverage With Dallas Keanu Nealthen, But linebacker. play whoto wasexpected , in the first round. Under Dan Quinn, Last year’s Falcons played 75% of their defensive snaps in nickel, the fourth-highest rate in the in rate fourth-highest the nickel, in snapsdrafted defensive their 75% playedof Falcons MicahParsons year’s Last UnderDan Quinn, round. first the in league, with no snaps in dime or lighter personnel. lighter or dime in snapsno with league,

Among 148 cornerbacks with at least 100 coverage snaps in 2020, in snapscoverage100 least at Amongwith cornerbacks 148 TrevonDiggsadjusts which snap, coverage per allowed yards adjusted in 127th ranked for touchdowns and interceptions. Diggs was also one of the most targeted corners when he was on the field, ranked 138th in targets per coverage snapcoverage per targets in 138th ranked field, whenthe wasonhe corners targeted most the of one wasalso Diggs touchdownsinterceptions. and for among that same group. There were a number of rookies in the same area as Diggs in both targets and adjusted yards allowed. To Diggs’s credit, he had thehadhe credit, Diggs’s To allowed. yards adjusted and targets both in Diggs sameas area the in rookies number aof were There same amonggroup. that best completion percentage allowed of that group at 55.4%. at group that of allowed percentage completion best

played nearly 90% of the Dallas defensive snaps but after some poor play in 2020, he was allowed to leave in free agency. free safety, in At leave to wasallowed he 2020, in Woodssomeplay Xavier poor after but snaps defensive Dallas the 90% of nearly played Donovan played well as he split his time between playing deep and in the box. After him, there are some questions, especially given Quinn’s history in Cover 3.Cover in history Quinn’s given especially somequestions, are there him, After box. the in deepand betweenplaying time his Wilsonsplit he as well played W ilson might not be a great single-high fit consistently. consistently. fit single-high great a be not might Wilson The Week 4. in Achilles torn a Damontecomingoff Kazee is but Quinn, for role that played has league could be moving to more two-high looks but Quinn’s background leans toward a more traditional use of a single-high deep safety and that type of type that and deepsafety single-high a of use moretraditional a toward backgroundleans Quinn’s but looks moretwo-high movingto be could league player isn’t currently on the roster. the on currently isn’t player

CLICK HERE to get 400+ page book 10 SharpFootballAnalysis.com Shotgun% : 2020 Play Tendencies2020 Play 2020DownTendencies &Distance Cowboys Dallas 59% Under All Pass% All Total Pass Run Play Shotgun Center All PassRk All 14 Down Distance Plays Rate Rate Success% Analysis 2020 Play All Rush %All 41% 1st (1-3) Short 9 44% 56% 44% 36% 64% All Rush RkAll 19 Dwn Med(4-7) 13 46% 54% 69% 1 ScorePass%1 58% 37% 63% 37% AVG 1 ScorePassRk1 15 Long(8-10) 343 51% 49% 50% YardageIntelligence: Short 2019 1 ScorePass%20191 60% (11+)XL 6 100% 0% 33% 2019 1 ScorePassRk20191 14 2nd (1-3) Short 50 34% 66% 68% RunRate: 2020 Pass Increase %2020PassIncrease -2% Run2nd andShort Dwn 49% Under Pass Increase RkPassIncrease 18 Med(4-7) 86 65% 35% Shotgun Center Run Run NFLRun Run1D RunNFL 1 ScoreRush1 % 42% Long(8-10) 105 68% 32% 44% 72% 19% Freq Rk AvgFreq Rate 1DAvg 1 ScoreRush1 Rk 18 (11+)XL 27 74% 26% 37% UpPass% 52% 64% 22 67% 83% 75% 3rd (1-3) Short 48 50% 50% 69%23% 68% AVG UpPassRk 24 Dwn 48% UpRush % 48% Med(4-7) 52 85% 15% Rate Pass : Pass2nd andShort UpRush Rk 9 Long(8-10) 34 85% 15% 18% Under DownPass% 62% Shotgun Pass Pass NFLPass Pass1D PassNFL XL (11+)XL 24 75% 25% 17% Center DownPassRk 14 Freq Rk AvgFreq Rate 1DAvg 4th (1-3) Short 9 56% 44% 56% 28% 81% DownRush % 38% 36% 11 33% 50% 59% Dwn DownRush Rk 19 Med(4-7) 2 100% 0% 0%77% 32% AVG M ost FrequentMostPlay Action)Performance Snap&Play Offensive w (Pre Motion Play Play Total (Y/N) Action Play Success% Down Distance Type Player Plays Pre- 1st (1-3) Short RUSHElliott Ezekiel 5 40% Snap No Yes Total Dwn Med(4-7) RUSHElliott Ezekiel 7 43% Motion Long(8-10) RUSHElliott Ezekiel 105 42% (Y/N) XL (11+)XL PASS CeeDeeLamb 2 50% 49%Success: 51%Success: 49%Success: Michael Gallup Michael 2 50% EPA:0.03 YPA:7.0, EPA:-0.11 YPA:6.4, EPA:0.00 YPA:6.9, 2nd (1-3) Short RUSH Elliott Ezekiel 23 74% No 90.8 Rtg: 76.0 Rtg: 87.6 Rtg: Dwn Med(4-7) RUSH Elliott Ezekiel 16 50% 42.8%] Rate: - 270 [Att: 11.9%] Rate: - 75 [Att: 54.7%] Rate: - 345 [Att: Long(8-10) RUSH Elliott Ezekiel 16 25% Success: 48%Success: 56%Success: 50%Success: XL (11+)XL PASS Elliott Ezekiel 4 25% YPA: 6.7, EPA:-0.13 YPA:6.7, EPA:0.13 YPA:10.6, EPA:-0.08 YPA:7.5, CeeDeeLamb 4 50% Yes Rtg: 91.5 Rtg: 127.1 Rtg: 99.6 Rtg: Michael Gallup Michael 4 50% 35.5%] Rate: - 224 [Att: 9.8%] Rate: - 62 [Att: 45.3%] Rate: - 286 [Att: RUSH Pollard Tony 4 0% 3rd (1-3) Short RUSHElliott Ezekiel 11 82% 48%Success: 53%Success: 49%Success: Dwn 63% EPA:-0.04 YPA:6.9, EPA:0.00 YPA:8.2, EPA:-0.03 YPA:7.2, Med(4-7) PASS CeeDeeLamb 16 Total Long(8-10) PASSGallup Michael 7 43% 91.1 Rtg: 99.4 Rtg: 92.9 Rtg: XL (11+)XL PASSGallup Michael 5 0% 78.3%] Rate: - 494 [Att: 21.7%] Rate: - 137 [Att: 100.0%] Rate: - 631 [Att:

2020Weekly SnapRates GroupingsPersonnel Team NFL Succ. Michael Dalton Amari Ezekiel CeeDee Tony Cedrick Personnel Wk Opp Score Gallup Schultz Cooper Elliott Lamb PollardBell Blake Wilson % Avg % 1 LA20-17 L 69 (96%) 50 (69%) 68 (94%) 63 (88%) 59 (82%) 10 (14%) 8 (11%) 3 (4%) [3WR] 1-1 71% 60% 51% 2 ATL W40-39 75 (91%) 57 (70%) 75 (91%) 76 (93%) 68 (83%) 8 (10%) 33 (40%) 4 (5%) 1-2 [2WR] 1-2 21% 20% 50% 3 SEA38-31 L 70 (85%) 55 (67%) 65 (79%) 80 (98%) 49 (60%) 6 (7%) 27 (33%) 24 (29%) 4 CLE49-38 L 67 (82%) 63 (77%) 63 (77%) 63 (77%) 62 (76%) 22 (27%) 28 (34%) 18 (22%) [4WR] 1-0 2% 2% 35% 5 NYG W37-34 64 (97%) 58 (88%) 42 (64%) 54 (82%) 36 (55%) 15 (23%) 18 (27%) 15 (23%) 1-3 [1WR] 1-3 2% 4% 41% 6 ARI38-10 L 72 (81%) 72 (81%) 79 (89%) 54 (61%) 60 (67%) 32 (36%) 19 (21%) 25 (28%) 7 WAS25-3 L 51 (91%) 45 (80%) 42 (75%) 37 (66%) 31 (55%) 19 (34%) 20 (36%) 20 (36%) 8 PHI23-9 L 69 (87%) 75 (95%) 59 (75%) 62 (78%) 37 (47%) 17 (22%) 41 (52%) 19 (24%) GroupingTendencies 9 PIT24-19 L 68 (94%) 69 (96%) 59 (82%) 47 (65%) 38 (53%) 23 (32%) 31 (43%) 11 (15%) Pass Run Pass 11 MIN W31-28 57 (86%) 60 (91%) 54 (82%) 46 (70%) 44 (67%) 21 (32%) 14 (21%) 14 (21%) Personnel Succ. Succ. Rate 12 WAS41-16 L 45 (76%) 51 (86%) 50 (85%) 39 (66%) 42 (71%) 21 (36%) 18 (31%) 12 (20%) % % 13 BAL34-17 L 74 (94%) 71 (90%) 69 (87%) 50 (63%) 48 (61%) 31 (39%) 18 (23%) 20 (25%) 1-1 [3WR] 1-1 70% 51% 51% 14 CIN W30-7 48 (94%) 49 (96%) 42 (82%) 32 (63%) 26 (51%) 19 (37%) 15 (29%) 7 (14%) 15 SF W41-33 38 (66%) 51 (88%) 45 (78%) 33 (57%) 52 (90%) 22 (38%) 16 (28%) [2WR] 1-2 35% 48% 51% 16 PHI W37-17 58 (83%) 65 (93%) 51 (73%) 37 (53%) 36 (51%) 33 (47%) 30 (43%) 13 (19%) 1-0 [4WR] 1-0 87% 35% 33% 17 NYG23-19 L 78 (95%) 80 (98%) 80 (98%) 47 (57%) 61 (74%) 34 (41%) 16 (20%) 7 (9%) GrandTotal 1,003 (87%) 971 (85%) 943 (82%) 787 (72%) 730 (63%) 363 (33%) 358 (31%) 228 (20%) [1WR] 1-3 18% 50% 39%

Red Zone Targets LeaderboardRedZone Targets RedZoneRushesLeaderboard Down RateEarly Target RB TE WR Receiver All5 Inside 6-10 11-20 Rusher All5 Inside 6-10 11-20 All All 22% 17% 60% 23% 21% 56% 21% 23% AmariCooper 16 8 2 6 Elliott Ezekiel 45 26 6 13 NFLAVG 14 4 1 9 Michael GallupMichael TonyPollard 17 5 1 11 Dalton SchultzDalton 13 2 2 9 %Success Target Overall CeeDeeLamb 11 4 2 5 DakPrescott 6 4 2 TonyPollard 8 2 6 AndyDalton 2 1 1 RB TE WR Ezekiel Elliott Ezekiel 7 1 6 BellBlake 2 2 Cedrick WilsonCedrick 6 1 2 3 Rico DowdleRico 2 2 47% 61% 54% Blake BellBlake 3 1 2 #15 #6 #16 DakPrescott 1 1 CeeDeeLamb 1 1 CLICK HERE to get 400+ page book 11 SharpFootballAnalysis.com Offensive Efficiency & Tendency Research 01. Games w Halftime Lead 8 02. Avg Halftime Lead -4.0 03. Wins 6

04. 1H Off EDSR (Early Down Success Rate) 22 Pre-Snap Motion (Quarters 1-3) 05. 1H Offensive Efficiency 21 06. 1H 3rd Down Yds to Go 15 36. PSM YPA 7.8 07. 1H 3rd Down Conversions 9 37. PSM Target Depth 6.0 38. Non-PSM YPA 7.7 08. 1H Explosive Play Rate 11 39. Non-PSM Target Depth 8.1 09. 1H Early Down Pass Rate 8 40. PSM Pass Success Rate 55% 10. 1H Early Down Pass Efficiency 22 41. Non-PSM Pass Success Rate 53% 11. 1H Early Down Run Efficiency 32 42. PSM EPA/att -0.06 12. 1H Red Zone Pass Efficiency 21 43. Non-PSM EPA/att 0.08 13. 1H Red Zone Rush Efficiency 16 14. PSM Usage Q1-3 10 Play Action (Quarters 1-3 on Early Downs) 15. PSM Passing Usage Q1-3 8 44. PA Usage Rate Q1-3 Early Downs 33% 14 16. PSM Improvement Pass Success Q1-3 45. PA Success Rate 59% 17. PSM Improvement YPA Q1-3 13 46. PA YPA 9.0 18. PSM Improvement Rating Q1-3 28 47. PA Sack Rate 7.7% 19. PSM Rushing Usage Q1-3 Q1-3 18 48. PA EPA/att 0.0 49. PA Target Depth 6.4 20. PSM Improvement Run Success Q1-3 17 50. Non-PA Success Rate 59% 21. PSM Improvement YPC Q1-3 22 51. Non-PA YPA 7.5 22. PA Usage Q1-3 Early Downs 24 52. Non-PA Sack Rate 4.8% 23. PA Improvement Success 18 53. Non-PA EPA/att 0.07 24. PA Improvement YPA 16 54. Non-PA Target Depth 6.2 28 25. PA Improvement Rating Men In Box 26. % Of Runs Into 8-Man+ Boxes (1=high) 18 27. Success on runs into 8-man+ boxes 26 55. % of runs into 8-man+ boxes Early Downs Q1-3 Outside 5-yd line 19% 28. % Of Runs Into 7-Man Boxes 14 56. Success on runs into 8-man+ boxes Early Downs Q1-3 Outside 5-yd line 37% 29. Success on runs into 7-man boxes 5 57. YPC on runs into 8-man+ boxes Early Downs Q1-3 Outside 5-yd line 2.1 30. % Of Runs Into 6-Man- Boxes 17 58. % of runs into 7-man boxes Early Downs Q1-3 Outside 5-yd line 41% 31. Success on runs into 6-man- boxes 31 59. Success on runs into 7-man boxes Early Downs Q1-3 Outside 5-yd line 54% 32. Run Rate into 8+ Man Box (1=high) 9 60. YPC on runs into 7-man boxes Early Downs Q1-3 Outside 5-yd line 4.3 33. Run Rate into 7 Man Box 14 61. % of runs into 6-man- boxes Early Downs Q1-3 Outside 5-yd line 36% 34. Run Rate into 6- Man Box 22 62. Success on runs into 6-man- boxes Early Downs Q1-3 Outside 5-yd line 43% 35. Total Defensive Efficiency 23 63. YPC on runs into 6-man- boxes Early Downs Q1-3 Outside 5-yd line 4.5

Fumble Luck (Fumble Recovery Over Expectation) Field Goal Luck

Net FROE Rk 32 defFUM 21 Net Over Expectation -0.18 Opp Att 27 Net FROE -8.0 Net Over Expectation Rank 15 Opp Makes 24 defFUM Rcvrd 8 Own Att 41 offFUM 19 Own Makes 34 Opp FG % 89% offFUM Rcvrd 6 defFR Rk 2 Own FG % 83% Opp Expected Makes 22.69 offFR% 31.6% defFR% 61.9% Own Expected Makes 32.88 Opp Make Over Expectation 1.31 offFR Rk 30 Own Make over Expectation 1.12 Opp Make over Expectation Rk 12 defFROE -3.6 Own Make over Expectation Rk 14 offFROE -4.4 2019 Own Make Over Exp. -2.53 2019 Opp Make Over Exp. -1.78 offFROE Rk 29 defFROE Rk 31 2019 Own Rk 24 2019 Opp Rk 25 Player Tracking Data Stats - QBs QB Pressure Offensive Metrics

Andy Dalton Dak Prescott Andy Dalton Dak Prescott EPA/Pass -0.03 23 CAY 5.2 6.8 Pressure % 29.5 27.9 EPA/Pass Rk CAY Rk 30 9 Pressure Rk 25 29 EPA/Rush -0.03 17 3 2019 CAY Rk Sack % 6.4 4.2 EPA/Rush Rk 13 AYTS Rk 31 21 Sack Rk 15 31 On-Target Catch % 89.7% 2019 AYTS Rk 21 4 Pressure Accuracy % 76.7 65.2 AGG Rk 22 21 On-Target Catch Rk 20 Pressure Accuracy Rk 2 19 2019 AGG Rk 5 13 Drop% 7.8% COMP% 64.9 68 Rating when Pressured 74.4 44.8 Drop Rk 25 xCOMP% 64.9 65.3 Pressured Rating Rk 15 37 2.4 xCOMP% Rk 21 17 YAC/Att Clean Accuracy % 76.1 81.6 2019 xCOMP% Rk 31 28 YAC/Att Rk 10 Clean Accuracy Rk 32 9 CPOE% 0 2.7 Rush Broken Tackle % 12.1% Rating when Clean 91 117.2 CPOE Rk 23 10 Rush Broken Tackle Rk 22 2019 CPOE Rk 30 6 Clean Rating Rk 34 7 Time to Throw 2.5 2.77 Rush 1st Down % 26.8% CAY: Completed Air Yards AYTS: Air Yards to the Sticks AGG: Aggressiveness xCOMP: Expected completion percentage CPOE: Rush 1st Down Rk 15 Actual completion percentage over expectation Time to Throw Rk 39 16

CLICK HERE to get 400+ page book 12 SharpFootballAnalysis.com Dallas Cowboys 2020 Offensive Passing TendenciesCowboys Passing 2020 Dallas Offensive

1st Down 1st 2ndDown Down3rd UnderCenter Shotgun NoHuddle 60 50

40

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10 Pass Distance (in air) (in Distance Pass 0 -10

vs Man vs Man vs Success Zone vs Zone vs Success TargetsCatchable Uncatchable 60 50

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WRTargets WRSuccess TargetsTE SuccessTE RBTargets RBSuccess 60 50

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Play Action Targets Action Play Success Action Play Non-PATargets Non-PASuccess RedZone RedZoneSuccess 60 50

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0/1 Step DropStep 0/1 Drop3-Step Drop5-Step Drop7-Step Touchdowns Interceptions 60 50

40

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10 Pass Distance (in air) (in Distance Pass 0 -10

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