CVEN 5393 Water Resources Systems and Management

Lecture 1 – January 14, 2013

E. Zagona – Director, Center for Advanced Decision Support for Water and Environmental Systems (CADSWES) and Research Professor, Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering Lecture/Class Outline

• Introductions • Prerequisites • Class Logistics • Introduction to Water Resources Systems and Management with class discussion • Brief Review of Syllabus and Topics • Introduction to RiverWare • Homework #1 • Online RiverWare instruction and exercises next week Water Resources Development and Management:

What kind of problems are addressed?

Who is in charge of identifying and solving the problems? Late 19th Century Western US

Reclamation Act of 1902: Authorized Federal Govt to build projects to “reclaim” land for productive agriculture. In early 20th Century the Tennessee Valley was the poorest area of the US

TVA Act of 1933

650-mile navigation channel Nation’s largest electricity supplier 49 dams, 29 hydroelectric plants, 165 billion kwh $250M flood reduction; self-funded since 1999

"Southern water is plentiful, northern water scarce. If at all possible, borrowing some water would be good.” --- Mao Tse-tung

• Western: headwater diversions via huge dams and long tunnels • Central: Han R. under Yellow R. to Beijing • Eastern: Grand Canal upgrades and pumping from Yangtze • Diversion of water from Brahmaputra R. and Mekong R. to arid northwestern China. $62B; divert 44.8bcm/y Dozens of huge dams Displacement of millions; Major environ. Problems Completed by 2015 The Imnam Dam on the Bukhan River in North Korea was constructed 1986- 2003 with capacity of 2.62 b tons of water. War scenarios forsee huge releases to flood Seoul, downstream. South Korea constructed a dam, the Peace Dam, completed in 2005, 22 miles downstream. It holds no water, but could hold up to 2.61 b tons. Water Resources Development and Management in 20th century

What kind of problems were addressed? Water availability (quantity and timing) Social and economic concerns Political issues

Who was in charge of identifying and solving the problems? Governments

What design and analysis techniques were used? Top down; Engineering-biased

Recent History of WR Development Late 19th century innovations in technology – advances in structural design – new material: structural concrete Dam-building dominated the mid-20th century Supply-oriented and engineering-biased Environmental Movement in US 1948 – first water pollution control act 1955 – Air Pollution control Act 1956 – Sierra Club stops Echo Park Dam in Dinosaur National Monument, UT 1962 – “Silent Spring” 1968 – Wild and Scenic Rivers Act; Sierra Club stops dam in Grand Canyon 1970 – National Resources Defense Council is established First “Earth Day” – with 20 million participants nation-wide EPA established; NOAA established; NEPA signed into law 1972 – “Limits to Growth” published and DDT banned 1973 – Endangered Species Act to prevent extinction of animals in the US 1974 – Safe Drinking Water Act 1977 – Energy Plan: 20% renewables by 2000; DOE established; 1978 – Love Canal and “Superfund” legislation 1985 – Ozone hole confirmed; Montreal protocol to phase out CFCs by 2000 1988 – NASA scientist warns Congress about Global Warming; IPCC established by WMO and UN Environmental Program 2005 – Kyoto protocol

NEPA 1970

• Federal project planning and decision-making requires environmental impact assessment. • consider environmental values alongside the technical and economic considerations • Environmental impact assessment also calls for the evaluation of reasonable alternatives to a proposed Federal action; • solicitation of input from organizations and individuals that could potentially be affected; • and the unbiased presentation of direct, indirect, and cumulative environmental impacts. World Commission on Dams Est. by World Bank in response to growing opposition to large dams worldwide in 1998 Findings: • Dams have been beneficial but often the price has been to high in social and environmental terms. • Large dams have failed to produce as much electricity, provide as much water, or control as much flood damage as their supporters predicted; the projects regularly suffer major cost overruns and time delays • 40-80 million people have been forced from their homes and lands with no compensation • Dams cause great environmental damage • Benefits have largely gone to the rich while the poor have borne the costs

In response to the failure of water projects around the world to meet the needs of society, a new movement began…. Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) Moving from a mainly top-down, supply-oriented, engineering- biased approach towards a demand-oriented, multi-sectoral approach and comprehensive water resources planning

IWRM…

“… a process which promotes the co-ordinated development and management of water, land and related resources, in order to maximize the resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems." (Global Water Partnership 2000: 22) The basis of IWRM is that the many different uses of finite water resources are interdependent. • IWRM is based on the understanding that water resources are an integral component of the ecosystem, a natural resource, and a social and economic good. Operationally IWRM…

• Is comprehensive, multi-disciplinary • Involves stakeholder participation • Finds equitable and sustainable solutions • Balances social and economic needs, and ensures the protection of ecosystems for future generations • Is an open, flexible process, bringing together decision-makers across the various sectors that impact water resources, and bringing all stakeholders to the table to set policy and make sound, balanced decisions in response to specific water challenges faced. IWRM was defined by the Dublin Principles in 1992: Sustainability is the capacity to endure. In ecology the word describes how biological systems remain diverse and productive over time. For humans, sustainability is the potential for long-term maintenance of well being, which has environmental, economic, and social dimensions.

Sustainable water resources systems are those designed and operated in ways that make them more adaptive, robust and resilient to an uncertain and changing future Process (steps) in addressing a water resources development/management problem • Problems are identified and resources allocated to address study/assess/plan • All relevant aspects of the problem are identified/ characterized • Analysis is performed • Results are transmitted to decision-makers and stakeholders who may negotiate • Decisions are make and implemented As water resources engineers, how can we accomplish this? 1. Identify purposes and objectives of the problem/solution (with stakeholders and policy makers) – What are the components (system) to be included? – Identify Alternatives – Performance criteria, costs and benefits – ID Competing or conflicting objectives – Include impacts that can’t be monetized – Anticipate possible future situations

As water resources engineers, how can we accomplish this? 2. Gather Data; some date is uncertain or incomplete – What hydrology date is adequate? – How can it be obtained or produced? – Is the climate changing? How to use climate change projections? – What cost data is needed? – Which objectives are not easy to quantify?

Tree ring reconstructed flows Direct Paleo - ISM applied to Meko - paleo flow (762-2005) (Meko et al., 2007) 1244 traces Nonparametric Paleo Conditioned - Meko - paleo conditioned (Prairie, 2006) 125 traces (combines historic magnitudes with paleo sequences)

Model Progression from GCM to Streamflow

Colorado Water Conservation Board 2008) Start with GCM output that is uncertain (probability is not known) Need to downscale to finer grid, apply local weather models, additional uncertainty in hydrology models that are not calibrated to these conditions. As water resources engineers, how can we accomplish this? 3. Analysis – Models – Statistical analysis – How to maximize benefits (what are computational approaches?) • optimization – What information will be needed by decision- makers? • Cost/benefit; Reliability • Sensitivity analysis • Tradeoff analysis

As water resources engineers, how can we accomplish this? 3. Present results in a decision framework – Scope and Assumptions of study – Performance of various alternatives – Tradeoffs among key criteria – Sensitivity of results to uncertainties – Multi-criteria decision framework

Topic of this class support modern water resources development and management

• Reservoir “engineering” • Modeling river/reservoir systems • Systems approaches (optimization) • Analysis of hydrologic data and synthesis of stochastic data • Decision Analysis Center for Advanced Decision Support for Water and Environmental Systems (CADSWES)

• R&D for Water Management Agencies and Hydropower Utilities • Decision Support software tools (RiverWare®) • Collaboration with and among Agencies • Grad student research; integration of research into products and techniques for use by agencies • Technology Transfer A General River and Reservoir Modeling Tool

Developed at the University of Colorado Center for Advanced Decision Support for Water and Environmental Systems (CU-CADSWES) 1993 to present through collaborative research and development with

Tennessee Valley Authority U.S. Bureau of Reclamation U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Uses of RiverWare • Planning, reliability assessment and decision-making for • New infrastructure development or new demands • policy development and evaluation • EIS, FERC • climate change • Compact or treaty negotiations

• Scheduling of Operations (reservoir releases, diversions, transfers, hydropower optimal generation)

• Water accounting, priority water rights allocation

• Facilitate stakeholder participation and collaborative decision-making

Who uses RiverWare?

• Water management agencies Reclamation, Corps of Engineers, States, Cites, Water Districts • Federal Agencies and Tribes BIA, USGS, National Park Service, Intern’tl Boundary Water Commission • Water Utilities TVA, Southwest Power, LCRA, Mid-Columbia PUDs, East Bay Municipal Utility District, BPA • Consultants Hydros, Stetson, Riverside Technologies, CDM, Tetra Tech, HDR, AECOM, … • Researchers and NGOs Pacific Northwest and Oakridge National Labs, Universities, NGOs … • International Governments, Researchers, Consultants…. 31 Applications

The Upper Rio Grande Water Operatio ns Model

Snake River Basin

Lower Colorado River Authority Texas

Arkansas Basin - USACE Truckee-Carson RiverWare – a licensed software product

• Licensing – Available through the University of Colorado Office of Technology Transfer – License fees contribute to software maintenance – RiverWare VIEWER is free – can view models and results • Developed with a team of professional software developers using standard development processes • Source control; version control; issue tracking • Training & User Support • Continued Enhancements via contracts and grants from sponsoring agencies ($1M+ per year) • Currently undergoing a CleanTech MAP Process to investigate feasibility of taking the software project out of University

Assessing the Value of Integrated Hydropower and Wind Generation

Mid- .Goal : Develop framework to evaluate impact of wind on Columbia Projects hydro with realistic hydro model .ORNL chose Mid-Columbia system Highly-constrained system High wind potential and existing wind Willing participation from Mid-C utilities .CADSWES developed Mid-C model and framework Meetings with ORNL and Mid-C utilities to obtain physical and policy info and model validation Complex interactions between the physical system and policy produce a highly non-linear response to changing wind penetration Improve Western Wind Study Results: Use RiverWare to optimize the operation of hydro power facilities taking into account all the operational objectives and constraints while maximizing their participation in the production of electricity and ancillary services as modeled by NREL into the power system production model PLEXOS. Based on this simulation, the researchers will be able to review the common assumptions used to model hydro in long-term electric planning and production cost studies and make recommendations that will benefit the integration of high penetration of renewable energy. Stochastic Flows and Reservoir Management at 2 Time Scales on the Colorado River – Zagona and Balaji (2-year study 2009-11 and current follow-on study)

• Improve mid-term forcasting (2-5 years) • Developed new forecasting techniques and management strategies to improve operations (Bracken, M.S.) • Investigated decadal variabilities in streamflow Developed Midterm • Development management strategies using knowledge of Probabalistic Operations Model decadal variability (Nowak, Ph.D.)

Tree ring reconstructed flows

Reconstructed AMO (red) and low- frequency component of PC1 (inverse) of Woodhouse Lees Ferry reconstruction (Nowak, Rajagopalan, Zagona) Modeling Future Reliability of Environmental Flows in the Colorado River Basin (Butler, M.S.)

• Establish e-flow points in decision model – Address spatial and temporal scale discrepancies – New method of e-flow evaluation at monthly timestep in basin-wide model • Model the reliability of e-flows – Climate change – Alternative demand and development scenarios • Sensitivity of e-flows to decisions • New method of e-flow evaluation at monthly timestep in basin-wide model • Results were used as performance criteria in Colorado River Basin Study

Advancing Ensemble Streamflow Prediction with Stochastic Meteorological Forcings for Hydrologic Modeling (Balaji et al) Caraway M.S., Daugherty, M.S.

• Development of stochastic weather generator to improve seasonal forecasts • Add to RFC’s CHPS suite of tools • Test with Reclamation’s new probabalistic midterm model • Evaluate improved decision making in San Juan Basin • RFC will incorporate this method to provide better forecasts for Reclamation in spring Tools and Techniques for Basin Scale

Sustain and Manage Climate Assessment (Zagona, Balaji) America's Resources for Tomorrow Generate Ensemble of Future Develop demand scenarios Supplies using various techniques based on and spatial/temporal disaggregation • Sector (Ag, energy, M&I, etc) • Historic resampled • Future use • Paleo conditioned • Political/Geographic Boundaries Hydrology Simulator Automatic import into models • Climate change conditioned Demand Input Tool

Tools and Techniques for Basin Scale Climate Assessment (Zagona, Balaji)

Tools and Techniques for Basin Scale Climate Assessment (Zagona, Balaji)

Robust Decision Analysis • Strategy: Robust decision making - Consider many possible future conditions, without quantified uncertainties. • Identify strategies that are robust over a range of possible futures. Give up some performance for the “expected” future in exchange for improved performance over a broader range of future conditions.

Current Research evaluating strategies for decision-making under deep uncertainties • Represent many possible futures (hydrology; demands; ….) • Simulate system behavior for all conditions • Quantify performance indicators over time • Recognize signposts of vulnerable states • Decide which options to implement and when • Measure improvement (or degradation) over no-action • Identify most effective/robust and beneficial options (current efforts in this area) • Move model forward in time and improve constantly Thank you