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TACR: Viet Nam: Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study in The Technical Assistance Consultant’s Report (Ca Mau Atlas) Project Number: 43295 December 2011 Socialist Republic of Viet Nam: Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study in the Mekong Delta (Cofinanced by the Climate Change Fund and the Government of Australia) Prepared by Peter Mackay and Michael Russell Sinclair Knight Merz (SKM) Melbourne, Australia For Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN) and the Ca Mau Peoples Committee This consultant’s report does not necessarily reflect the views of ADB or the Government concerned, and ADB and the Government cannot be held liable for its contents. (For project preparatory technical assistance: All the views expressed herein may not be incorporated into the proposed project’s design. Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study in the Mekong Delta Ca Mau Atlas December 2011 Ca Mau Peoples Committee Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study in THE Mekong Delta (Part A ) – CA MAU ATLAS 2 . CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT AND ADAPTATION STUDY IN THE MEKONG DELTA (PART A ) – CA MAU ATLAS Contents INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................................................. 4 CLIMATE CHANGE MODELLING AND EMISSIONS SCENARIOS.......................................................... 5 CLIMATE CHANGE VARIABLES ................................................................................................................. 6 CLIMATE CHANGE HAZARDS ..................................................................................................................... 8 FLOODING AND INUNDATION ................................................................................................................................. 10 SALINE INTRUSION ............................................................................................................................................... 11 STORM SURGE.................................................................................................................................................... 12 TYPHOONS ........................................................................................................................................................ 13 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ................................................................................................................. 14 Climate Change Impact and Adaptation IDENTIFYING AND ANALYSING FUTURE RISK ....................................................................................... 16 CA MAU PROVINCE....................................................................................................................................... 18 Study in The Mekong Delta – Part A CA MAU PROVINCE POPULATION VULNERABILITY ............................................................................. 20 CA MAU PROVINCE POVERTY VULNERABILITY .................................................................................... 21 CA MAU PROVINCE AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS VULNERABILITY ....................................... 22 CA MAU ATLAS CA MAU PROVINCE ENERGY AND INDUSTRY VULNERABILITY ........................................................ 23 CA MAU PROVINCE URBAN SETTLEMENTS AND TRANSPORTATION VULNERABILITY .............. 24 Decem ber 2011 CA MAU PROVINCE REGIONAL SYNTHESIS VULNERABILITY ............................................................ 25 CA MAU PROVINCE – DISTRICT SUMMARIES ......................................................................................... 27 CA MAU CITY..................................................................................................................................................... 28 CAI NUOC ......................................................................................................................................................... 30 DAM DOI .......................................................................................................................................................... 32 Although all effort is made to ensure that the information, opinions and analysis contained in this NAM CAN ......................................................................................................................................................... 34 document are based on sources believed to be reliable - no representation, expressed or implied, is NGOC HIEN ....................................................................................................................................................... 36 made guaranteeing accuracy, completeness or correctness. The boundaries, colours, denominations, PHU TAN .......................................................................................................................................................... 38 and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the THOI BINH......................................................................................................................................................... 40 TRAN VAN THOI ................................................................................................................................................. 42 Authors concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such U MINH ........................................................................................................................................................... 44 boundaries. No legal liability or responsibility for the consequences of any third party’s use of the information, opinions and analysis contained in this report will be assumed. ABOUT THIS ATLAS............................................................................................................................................. 46 3 Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study in THE Mekong Delta (Part A ) – CA MAU ATLAS 4 . CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT AND ADAPTATION STUDY IN THE MEKONG DELTA (PART A ) – CA MAU ATLAS Introduction This study on the two Mekong Delta provinces of Kien Giang and Ca Mau has been undertaken in order to provide provincial and district policy makers with an understanding of the key areas of vulnerability and hotspots with regards to climate change in the period up to 2050. The study focuses on vulnerability in the socio-economic, agriculture, livelihoods, urban settlements, transport, energy and industry sectors. The baseline period used for this study is 1980-1999 (and the September 2000 flood event), with the periods 2030 and 2050 also modelled under selected greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (B2 and A2). Modelling that has been conducted includes regional climate modelling (i.e. downscaling), hydrological (B2 and A2) and coastal modelling (B2). The primary purpose of this vulnerability assessment study is to identify and evaluate the ‘net biophysical and social vulnerability’ of Ca Mau and Kien Giang provinces. In this context and for the purposes of this Report, ‘vulnerability’ is considered to be a function of: • Exposure to climatic conditions and sensitivity to the impacts of climate change; • The frequency, magnitude and extent of climate-related risks to the community, assessed in terms of the probability of occurrence (likelihood) and magnitude of hazards (consequence); and • The ability or adaptive capacity to respond to climate-related risks (including adaptive measures, coping strategies or actions taken in reaction to the impacts or to mitigate the risks). The Approach This study has adopted a standard ‘comparative vulnerability and risk assessment (CVRA) methodology and framework’ for estimating aggregate vulnerability for five of dimensions, these being: population; poverty; agriculture and livelihoods; industry and energy; urban settlements and transportation. This approach is based on the generally accepted IPCC approach to vulnerability assessment for natural system, in combination with a risk-based approach for assessing the impacts of natural hazards such as flooding, inundation and sea level rise on human systems. The integration of the risk-based and vulnerability-based approaches was seen as both a necessary and practical means of for addressing the numerous threats that human and natural systems of the Mekong will face in the future as a result of climate variability and change, and also from non-climate hazards. Placing social vulnerability within the context of risk, and viewing biophysical vulnerability and risk as broadly equivalent, provides us with a relatively simple but pragmatic framework for assessing both the comparative geospatial and sectoral vulnerability on the Mekong Delta. This approach recognises the need to not only identify ‘who’ are the most socially vulnerable – but ‘what’ infrastructure and services are physically more exposed and vulnerable, and reflects the variation and complexity of both human and natural systems, and incorporates social dimensions such as population and poverty., as well as bio-physical attributes. Climate Change in the Mekong Delta Climate change is a major environmental challenge for Vietnam. The main indicator of climate change is global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. Climate change also leads to a strong fluctuation in rainfall and an increase in weather and climate extremes such as floods and droughts. Rising sea levels will also directly affect coastal areas, potentially inundating land or increasing
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