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RICS UK Commercial Market Survey Q4 2011 Commercial Property - All Sectors

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RICS UK Commercial Market Survey Q4 2011 Commercial Property - All Sectors Q4 2011 RICS UK Commercial Market Survey Sentiment in the commercial market eases further • Weaker demand and rising availability leads to most negative rent expectations net balance since Q3 2009 Occupier demand and available space, England and Wales % Balance, seasonally adjusted • Development starts fall further across all sectors of the market 80 60 • Capital value expectations fall further and surveyors expect investment transactions to slow significantly 40 The latest RICS UK Commercial Market Survey continues to 20 show falling occupier demand and rising availability, which is 0 leading to an increasingly negative rental outlook. Furthermore, surveyors expect the market to stagnate as finance remains tight -20 and tenants become increasingly cautious. In particular, Demand -40 respondents are continuing to express concern regarding Availability economic prospects at home and abroad. -60 The mood among surveyors deteriorated across all sectors of -80 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 the commercial market in the final three months of the year, with retail and offices suffering the most. The net balances for both tenant demand and expected rents fell further into negative Rental expectations (1 quarter ahead) - UK and London territory, while available space continues to rise. Demand for % Balance, non seasonally adjusted industrial space was unchanged as was the supply of space, though rents are still expected to fall in Q1 2012. 100 The supply pipeline for commercial stock looks weaker, as new 80 development starts eased further for all sectors, most notably for 60 UK retail units. On the investment side, enquiries for office space fell London 40 for the first time in a year and expectations for future transactions also declined. Capital value expectations fell at a 20 faster rate for all sectors. 0 Significantly, London and the South no longer seem immune to -20 the negativity felt elsewhere in the UK. Indeed, the Central -40 London office market, which had remained buoyant over the first -60 half of the year, saw occupier demand fall for the first time in 18 -80 months. Alongside this, available space is now rising for the first time since Q3 2009, though rental expectations remain broadly -100 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 stable. All commercial property : England and Wales Change during the quarter Expected next quarter Available Occupier Capital Rental space for demand values levels % balance* occupiers for space Q4 5 1 -9 -7 2011 Q1 7 9 -8 -11 Q2 11 11 -3 -5 Q3 16 -12 -13 -17 Q4 16 -13 -29 -29 * Net balance = Proportion of surveyors reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a fall (if 30% reported a rise and 5% reported a fall, the unadjusted net balance will be 25%) To receive a free copy of this report on the day of release please email [email protected] 1 RICS UK Commercial Market Survey Q4 2011 Commercial property - all sectors Demand Occupier demand declined for the second Change in sales & lettings of commercial space to occupiers over consecutive quarter at the headline level, though the the past quarter pace of decline was largely unchanged; the net % Balance, seasonally adjusted balance shifted from -12 to -13. Demand was particularly weak for office and retail space, while it 40 remained broadly unchanged for industrial units. 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 19981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011 Floor space availability Available space continued to rise in Q4, though the Change in available commercial space for occupation over net balance was unmoved at +16. Availability for the past quarter retail and office space rose at the fastest pace, % Balance, seasonally adjusted while it stabilised for industrial units. 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Expected rents Rental expectations have plummeted this quarter, Surveyor expectations for the change in rents for the next with the net balance sinking to the most lowest quarter reading since Q3 2009. Sentiment is most negative % Balance, seasonally adjusted for office and retail rents, but rents are also expected to decline in the industrial sector. 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2 2 RICS UK Commercial Market Survey Q4 2011 Capital value expectations Capital values are expected to continue falling into Capital values of commercial real estate over the previous three 2012, marking nearly 2 years of declines; the net month period balance fell further to -28. The greatest falls are % Balance, non seasonally adjusted anticipated for office and retail space. 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 2008 2009 2010 2011 Investment enquiries Investment enquiries edged down in Q4, with the Change in investment enquiries for commercial real estate over the net balance falling from -2 to -18. The retail sector past quarter saw the greatest declines, though enquiries fell for % Balance, non seasonally adjusted all sectors. 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Inducements The value of incentive packages offered by landlords to secure a letting increased further in Q4, Change Inducements over the past quarter with the net balance ticking up to +25. Inducements % Balance, seasonally adjusted are rising across all sectors of the market, but once again, most significantly for retail space. 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 3 3 RICS UK Commercial Market Survey Q4 2011 Chartered surveyor market comments EAST MIDLANDS Tim Richardson BSc MRICS, Innes Simon Beeton MRICS, Derrick Wade Phillipa Jeal MRICS, Phillipa Jeal England, Derby, 1332362244 - There Waters, Harlow, 01279 629225 - Retail Property Consultants London, is still underlying activity in the Lack of good quality industrial stock 020-7584-6861 - For central south industrial and office sectors with above c 10,000 sq.ft. is reining in west London market, Knighthsbridge, Andrew Nichols MRICS, Gadsby transactions occurring on sensibly incentives. Office enquiries are Chelsea and Central London, Orridge, Derbyshire, 1332290390 - prices freeholds. The leasehold increasing but demand is focused on demand still outstrips supply for retail Market very quiet, increasing supply market is very patchy. best buildings in locality potentially & investments. Very few new of secondary office and retail space releasing poor quality stock into the developments. Few distressed sales with little occupational demand. J A Smith, FRICS, R Longstaff & Co, market for which there is little as in these areas it can be possible Industrial market holding it's own - Spalding, 01775 766766 - The demand. to sell on the lease/freehold before just. market remains challenging and the point of distress etc. there are, therefore, few transactions Craig Knights BSc (Hons) MRICS, Ian Leather, Lambert Smith taking place. Arnolds Chartered Surveyors, Roland Williams MRICS, Tuckerman Hampton, Northampton, 01604 Norwich, 01603 216825 - The Commercial Ltd., London, 0207 222 664366 - The regional markets have secondary office market remains the 5511 - Our overall perception with a lack of Grade A space and an EASTERN most problematic sector, closely office lettings in Victoria is that increasing supply of Grade B stock, followed by retail. We have seen a lot demand has remained fairly constant some of which does not meet of activity in Lowestoft and Great throughout the year, neither occupier aspirations. The Central Jonathan Lloyd MRICS, Hazells Yarmouth Enterprise Zones and we increasing or decreasing much. London development stock is out Chartered Surveyors, Bury St are of the opinion that we will see a However there is now a shortage of performing the rest of the UK which Edmunds, 01284 702626 - In Bury St good level of activity in these quality stock which is forcing tenants is going to create ongoing supply Edmunds, we have noticed that locations in 2012. to make quicker decisions and problems. This will provide an existing office stock is slowly but accept reduced incentives. opportunity for the landlord/investor surely being taken up and there is Philip Woolner MA MRICS, Cheffins, with good quality Grade B space to little quality coming onto the market Cambridge, 01223 213666 - Demand Kevin Kemplen MRICS, Kinney attract occupier interest, plus an to replace it. This will leave new across the board is at very low levels, Green, London, 0207 495 1222 - opportunity to recycle dated buildings requirements, particularly over 5,000 reflecting a lack of business Difficult to draw any concrete much quicker than the development sq ft, struggling to find suitable confidence. Low levels of supply of conclusions from the past three pipeline. quality accommodation. This should prime office and industrial stock months as the market would appear have the effect of pushing up rental across the Cambridge region are to be in a state of limbo with the Mike Hammans MRICS, Hammans values in the near future. holding values up. majority of tenants only taking Property Consulltants Nottingham, decisions where absolutely Nottingham, 0115 9390613 - Market Sam Kingston MRICS, Roche Stuart King BSc MRICS, Davies King necessary. conditions extremely hard, but there Surveyors, Norwich, 01603 619876 - Chartered Surveyors, Letchworth are foreign investors who will The Norwich market remains in a Garden City, 01462 484272 - It has Charles McClean MRICS, CJ purchase good quality investments if difficult position. There is an over become a very hard market which McClean Associates Ltd, London, the price is discounted supply of office stock, generally, but can vary between close geographical 020 7758 0415 - Tenant sentiment with limited Grade A opportunities. areas. when relocating is very cautious and Ben Coleman BSc FRICS, Ben The industrial market has faired few are willing to commit to a lease Coleman Associates, Northampton, better with supply more limited and Andrew Bastin FRICS, Bastin beyond 3 years and most are looking 01604 660014 - The market still a reasonable number of Steward, Norwich, 01603 665 996 - to save money when relocating, even continues to move sideways, enquires.
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