RB Kenneth Gainwell, Memphis (Update/Post-Pro Day)

Home , Darrell Henderson, Kenneth Gainwell

2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

MARCH 25, 2021

NFL Draft 2021 Scouting Report: RB Kenneth Gainwell, Memphis (Update/Post-Pro Day)

*Our RB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*We use the term “Power RB” to separate physically bigger, more between-the-tackles–capable RBs from our “speed RBs” group. “Speed RBs” are physically smaller, but much faster/quicker, and less likely to flourish between the tackles.

**Update after Gainwell’s Pro Day:**

I’m slashing my grades on Kenneth Gainwell after we received his official Pro Day results. When the information changes, we have to change with it.

I have to laugh…

In typical fashion, Fantasy and NFL Draft twitter journalists (who were pro-Gainwell) dropped the mic and claimed euphoric victory, as if Christ returned to earth, when they saw (on Twitter) that Gainwell ran a 4.4s 40-yard dash at 201 pounds at his Pro Day.

There are at least three problems with all this nonsensical Gainwell-worship…

(1) The Twitter reports on Pro Day work are almost always a lie…the unofficial or hand-times by an agent or school official/sycophant/promoter comes out via tweet about 15 seconds after they run their time – and everyone leaps off a cliff (to their scouting death) as if it’s 100% truth.

In this case, reports of Gainwell having run low 4.4s was not right – it was 4.45 or 4.47 officially…if ‘official’ even means anything anymore. We have laser times as well as hand times by 5-10-15+ different people. Which one is really right?

If Gainwell ran a 4.45+ 40-time at a Pro Day, then don’t we all see that as like a 4.50 range in reality? If the news/tweets really came out as ‘Gainwell runs a 4.50’ then the fantasy/football media, the Gainwell sycophant fanboys wouldn’t be proclaiming their world domination for ‘pre-liking’ Gainwell…would they? No, they’d probably tell you how 40-times don’t matter (for that particular case).

Running a 4.50 range 40-time at 201 pounds is good/NFL-worthy…but a 4.41 time at 201 pounds is REALLY good. That fraction of a second REALLY matters; it does. In scouting terms, it changes the grades and mindsets for everyone who analyzes/has analytic records of such things. We have history as our

College Football Metrics| 1

2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

MARCH 25, 2021

guide…it’s not just ‘who cares about a fraction of a second?’ The difference between 4.40 and 4.50 is hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars.

(2) Running a mid-4.4s or 4.50 40-time at 201 pounds, at a Pro Day is not ‘special’ or rarefied air (but it is good/solid).

Last year, the list of RB prospects who were 195-205 pounds and ran a 4.52 or faster at the Combine or Pro Day…

Darrynton Evans

Walter Fletcher

Pete Guerriero

And you know what is better than running a 4.52 or faster 40-time at 195-205 pounds? Running 4.52 or faster and weighing over 205 pounds! That list from 2020…

Cam Akers

Antonio Gibson

A.J. Dillon (at 247 pounds)

Josh Kelley

D’Andre Swift

Jonathan Taylor

Ke’Shawn Vaughn

Artavis Pierce

Bronson Rechsteiner

Who super-cares about an RB prospect runs in the mid-4.4s or 4.5s at +/- 200 pounds anymore? It’s a start point. It’s a ‘good thing’ to start, but we have to examine all the other data.

(3) …all the other data on Gainwell’s Pro Day was ‘bad’ (and the Twitter scouts didn’t care to spike the ball or mention these items…or even know what they mean).

The Good from his Pro Day: Gainwell’s 40-time at 201 pounds is nice/solid/acceptable. 21 bench reps is really good for his size. Hand size nearly 10”…that’s very good.

College Football Metrics| 2

2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

MARCH 25, 2021

The Bad from his Pro Day…

-1.60+ 10-yard dash…that’s a bad piece of data. RBs are rarely sprinting 40-yards, but they are running 0-10 yards a lot. Gainwell flopped his 10-yard, on paper, for those who are celebrating his 40-time…you have to then accept/deal with his 10-yard. You can’t discount it.

-70.25” wingspan (very low end on the spectrum)…if Gainwell’s gift is his RB/WR-like nature, you lose a lot of catch radius with him with his shorter arms/reach.

-The three-cone at 7.2+ is a massive problem. 4.4+ shuttle to go-with combined with a 7.2+ three-cone, possibly a 7.3+ three-cone with any Pro Day fudge – that’s the death of a smaller RB.

‘The death’ on paper. The people celebrating Gainwell’s Twitter lie early 40-time reports…celebrating one piece of ‘data’ that makes them swoon – they cannot then discount all the other (damning) data. You can’t say, “Well, Gainwell plays faster/shiftier than that” about his agility dud times. If you say that, you’re going against the data…if the other (40-time) data was what you were using to claim he was a great prospect now. You can’t have it both ways.

-He came in 2+ inches shorter than advertised.

THUS…is the problem with eyeball scouting and using college listed data and rumored things. Your eyes can lie. My projected height/weight and agility times and most other measurables on Gainwell were WAY of…and I’m a professional! We learn, adapt, adjust as we go/get data in 2021…

If you were giving school grades on Gainwell’s Pro Day, there would be a few ‘B grade’ items, a few Cs and a few Ds…no As. How valuable is a 201-pound, average speed, weak agility, solid frame, ‘C’ grade- ish overall athleticism?

Answer = not very…

There will be several RB prospects with the same size or much larger with the same or better speed and much better agility/overall athleticism. So why get all hot and bothered by Gainwell’s profile? Because he had a very good 2019 season? Most all the top 5-10 RB prospects at 195-210 pounds had a great season of college output for their resume.

The new comp board for Gainwell…

A bunch of fringe/decent or never-were 200 +/- pound RBs in the NFL are now Gainwell’s most likely comps with the new Pro Day data.

College Football Metrics| 3

2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

MARCH 25, 2021

Is Gainwell doomed for the NFL? Not necessarily. Players overcome Combine/Pro Day analytics…but more likely the data doesn’t lie versus a wild miss. Gainwell’s radically deviated Pro Day versus college listings and my eyeball estimates – it hurts his profile, a lot.

Hey, Ito Smith is a decent-ish NFL RB! He’s useful. Do you care about him today/three years later like you might have his draft year? No…no, you don’t.

RB RB- RB- Last First College Yr H H W Speed Agility Power Score Re ru Metric Metric Metric 6.143 6.94 5.51 Gainwell Kenneth Memphis 2021 5 8.3 201 4.74 2.43 6.56 3.913 4.58 3.02 Smith Ito So Miss 2018 5 9.0 201 1.37 -4.68 8.33 4.304 2.05 2.93 Webb Ralph Vandy 2018 5 9.2 202 -1.08 0.31 9.87 4.536 1.55 3.66 Higdon Karan Michigan 2019 5 9.1 205 2.61 1.08 7.77 4.880 6.83 3.60 Wright Jeremy Louisville 2013 5 9.3 197 -1.91 1.09 4.23 5.101 7.47 3.69 Williams Kerwynn Utah State 2013 5 8.1 196 6.99 6.74 5.62 4.212 4.95 6.01 Guerriero Pete Monmouth 2020 5 8.6 196 4.85 4.39 5.41 6.575 7.87 6.02 Washington DeAndre Texas Tech 2016 5 8.2 204 4.85 6.10 9.06

I initially projected Gainwell as a 3rd/4th-round pick. I think he might have fallen to a day three/4th- round guy now with his Pro Day measurables.

------

All of the RB ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

College Football Metrics| 4

2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

MARCH 25, 2021

*RB-Re score = Our new formula/rating that attempts to identify and quantify a prospect's receiving skills even deeper than in our original formulas. RB prospects can now make it/thrive in the NFL strictly based on their receiving skills – it is an individual attribute sought out for the NFL and no longer dismissed or overlooked. Our rating combines a study of their receiving numbers in college in relation to their offense and opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with hand size measurables, etc.

*RB-Ru score = Our new formula/rating that attempts to classify and quantify an RB prospect's ability strictly as a runner of the ball. Our rating combines a study of their rushing numbers in college in relation to their offense and strength of opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with various size measurables, etc.

Raw Speed Metric = A combination of several speed and size measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

Agility Metric = A combination of several speed and agility measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

======

Original March 12, 2021 report…

Kenneth Gainwell is ‘good’.

There’s really not much more to say, and no need to go overboard explaining it.

Gainwell often gets compared to Austin Ekeler. Maybe 1st-year NFL Ekeler, not the current extremely bulked up Ekeler…but Gainwell could add 10+ pounds of muscle and maybe become a similar player.

I prefer to compare Gainwell to former Memphis RB Tony Pollard…a lesser Tony Pollard. And as Jason Katz would agree – that’s not an insult. Pollard might be the Cowboys best RB now.

Whether you like an Austin Ekeler comparison or a Tony Pollard or Nyheim Hines or the computer’s top match – Justice Hill (memba him?)…you get the idea on the smaller, but not too small, RB prospect who can really catch the ball well out of the backfield.

College Football Metrics| 5

2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

MARCH 25, 2021

But here’s the thing to note about all the comps listed above – most of ‘these types of RBs’…under 200 pounds, scat back, speedy, great receiver instincts and play; almost WR-like…most of them get lost in the NFL/never live up to the draft hype early on.

Tony Pollard is buried in Dallas. Nyheim Hines is a relief back and 3rd-down/hurry up offense option. Austin Ekeler was in the same mold as this group but really transformed his body and won a more substantial role in the offense…which is the big hope for all of these guys – will they land on an offense that is built for them to shine? Usually, this type of RB is drafted, then used sparingly as a 1-3-5 touch a game specialty play option and never gets enough consistent playing time/touches to matter. Ekeler is the major exception to the rule.

Remember Justice Hill? Nice Oklahoma State career…fantastic NFL Combine numbers…4th-round pick in 2019, who many thought was a steal – now, Hill is on a milk carton in Baltimore. You have to try and remember whether he is still in the NFL or not. It’s not Hill’s fault, it’s the offense’s fault…and other talented guys fitting the offense better.

What if the same thing happens to Gainwell?

You know what Pollard-Hill-Hines have in common? All taken in the 4th-round. Ekeler was undrafted.

Kenneth Gainwell was a 2018 redshirt, then a 2019 major producer/star in the weaker AAC conference. Everyone liked him because of his nice 2019, then he opted-out for 2020…and now he’s getting a push as one of the 3-4 best RB prospects in this draft. He’s good but we might be getting ahead of ourselves here.

Gainwell is good/talented, but not off-the-charts. He’s a good player who got to shine on a very high functioning/clever Memphis offense in 2019. He was used as a main carry runner who also split out as a slot-like receiver option a bunch. Basically, he reprised the role of Tony Pollard at Memphis…and took it to a higher level, although I don’t believe he is as naturally gifted as Pollard.

Here’s the thing… Tony Pollard was fantastic as a runner/receiver in this clever offense…but Pollard took a big back seat to stud RB Darrell Henderson. It wasn’t Pollard’s fault he didn’t become an award winning standout. Gainwell had no such competition to deal with. If he’d had Darrell Henderson to contend with, Gainwell would have played a lesser role – but ‘right time, right place’ for Gainwell in 2019 (and they didn’t discover that WR Antonio Gibson was their best RB until too late into 2019 season).

It seems like I am downing Gainwell as a prospect, but that’s not my intention -- I’m just trying to keep perspective. Every draft season we all, and/or the media and analysts, fall in love with some prospects and start cranking up a hyperbole hype train that gets a bit silly. I mean, 1-2-3 years later…no one is writing poems about Tony Pollard, Nyheim Hines, or Justice Hill…and those guys are also all talented like Gainwell.

College Football Metrics| 6

2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

MARCH 25, 2021

Gainwell is a high effort, solid runner, solid receiver. He’s not an ‘amazing’ runner, nor an ‘amazing’ receiver. He’s just ‘good’ in either role. Nothing wrong with that. When I watch Gainwell’s tape, I see him being super-shifty versus the likes of Tulane and Louisiana-Monroe…and then looking very capable, but human/normal against the likes of Ole Miss and Penn State. Gainwell is very shifty, and you can see YouTube tape of it and get excited…but he looks a lot shiftier vs. Tulane than against Penn State.

Memphis has cranked out some serious NFL RB prospects of late. If we had an NFL Draft of them, the draft would likely go as follows…

#1) Antonio Gibson – on size/speed profile.

#2) Darrell Henderson – maybe the most underrated/overlooked RB in the NFL right now.

#3) Tony Pollard – a hidden weapon as an RB/WR hybrid who can’t get on the field when Zeke is there because Mike McCarthy is busy getting a massage in his office instead of figuring out interesting uses for Pollard which would benefit his team.

#4) Kenneth Gainwell – is a good player, but not as good as the three guys above him…though not far off Pollard, and is legit for the NFL.

Some NFL team is going to get a really good, high effort, solid character RB/WR hybrid prospect in the 2021 NFL Draft with Gainwell. And likely, sadly, that team will waste/overlook the opportunity to use Gainwell as an all-around weapon. And, again…Gainwell is not so special that a team has to change everything to fit him.

Kenneth Gainwell, Through the Lens of Our RB Scouting Algorithm:

-- Here’s the concern on Gainwell…

Facing Ole Miss, Cincy (2x), and Penn State (his toughest/real competition) in his brilliant 2019 season, Gainwell averaged:

14.5 carries, 60.5 yards rushing (4.2 ypc) and 0.25 rushing TDs…that is very weak yards per carry for a pro prospect RB. And it only makes sense that someone his size cannot dominate bigger opponents as a main carry RB. He’s not an NFL main carry RB.

In those 4 games, Gainwell also averaged:

College Football Metrics| 7

2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

MARCH 25, 2021

4.8 rec., 44.8 rec. yards, 0.0 rec. TDs per game…great numbers for a running back in college, BUT Gainwell was lucky to be an offense that featured using the RB as a quasi-quick pass/bubble screen WR. Gainwell was more a product of usage opportunity than a force of nature.

Gainwell’s HUGE output games in 2019 were against Southern, Temple, Tulsa, and Tulane

Pro Day Estimates:

5’10+/190+, 9.5” hands

4.45-4.55 40-time, 6.9 +/- three-cone 15-18 bench reps, 35”+ vertical.

The Historical RB Prospects to Whom Kenneth Gainwell Most Compares Within Our System:

We already discussed the pros and cons of Gainwell’s comps to Justice Hill, Nyheim Hines, and Tony Pollard. The computer is more lined up with small-RB comps like Justice Hill and Matt Breida and Danny Woodhead…and those aren’t insulting comps, but they do indicate a certain style/usage for Gainwell… and it’s not as a three-down back.

RB RB- RB- Last First College Yr H H W Speed Agility Power Score Re ru Metric Metric Metric 7.097 8.29 5.31 Gainwell Kenneth Memphis 2021 5 10.6 191 7.57 8.70 5.81 6.797 7.34 5.33 Hill Justice Oklahoma St. 2019 5 9.5 198 7.96 4.54 7.41 6.593 5.09 5.69 Breida Matt Ga Southern 2017 5 9.2 195 8.89 6.40 7.81 5.698 5.27 4.84 Woodhead Danny Chadron St 2008 5 9.0 195 8.07 5.78 7.00 4.246 7.46 2.62 Hunt Akeem Purdue 2015 5 9.8 189 6.56 8.19 1.94 5.506 4.83 3.75 Mostert Raheem Purdue 2015 5 10.5 190 9.66 4.87 4.68

*A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of RBs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL RB. All of the RB ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

College Football Metrics| 8

2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

MARCH 25, 2021

Overall rating/score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for the strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics – then compared/rated historically within our database and formulas. More of a traditional three-down search – runner, blocker, and receiver. *RB-Re score = Our new formula/rating that attempts to identify and quantify a prospect's receiving skills even deeper than in our original formulas. RB prospects can now make it/thrive in the NFL strictly based on their receiving skills – it is an individual attribute sought out for the NFL and no longer dismissed or overlooked. Our rating combines a study of their receiving numbers in college in relation to their offense and opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with hand size measurables, etc. *RB-Ru score = Our new formula/rating that attempts to classify and quantify an RB prospect's ability strictly as a runner of the ball. Our rating combines a study of their rushing numbers in college in relation to their offense and strength of opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with various size measurables, etc. Raw Speed Metric = A combination of several speed and size measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile. Agility Metric = A combination of several speed and agility measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

2021 NFL Draft Outlook:

I see Gainwell ranked #60-120 overall for most ranking services…more of a 3rd-round prospect, partly because of the lack of real RB firepower in this draft, so Gainwell sneaks into the top five RB talents for this draft – which might be true but speaks more to the lack of high-end talent at RB in this draft…especially after the ‘big 3’ (Harris-Etienne-Javonte) the media focuses on.

If I were an NFL GM, I’d have no reason to pay a 3rd/4th-round price for something similar to what I can find later in the draft or after the draft.

NFL Outlook:

As is the case with most RB specialists, it all comes down to his landing spot.

College Football Metrics| 9

2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

MARCH 25, 2021

Gainwell could land with a visionary offensive mind, who uses him as a scat back, pass catching back, and sometimes slot WR…and Gainwell is a star.

Gainwell could get into a Justice Hill disaster situation and be forgotten in 2-3 years.

All rights reserved. All content is for entertainment purposes only and TFA is not responsible or liable for personal adverse outcomes nor are any game results or forecasting guaranteed. Past results do not predict future outcomes. We are not held liable for any personal loses incurred. We are solely here to produce and provide content for recreational purposes. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law. For permission requests, email the publisher at [email protected]

Signature______Date______3/25/2021

College Football Metrics| 10