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The Impact of Base Redevelopment for New England Bernd F University of Massachusetts Amherst ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst Open Access Dissertations 5-2012 From Tank Trails to Technology Parks: the Impact of Base Redevelopment for New England Bernd F. Schliemann University of Massachusetts Amherst, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.umass.edu/open_access_dissertations Part of the Urban, Community and Regional Planning Commons Recommended Citation Schliemann, Bernd F., "From Tank Trails to Technology Parks: the Impact of Base Redevelopment for New England" (2012). Open Access Dissertations. 594. https://scholarworks.umass.edu/open_access_dissertations/594 This Open Access Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. It has been accepted for inclusion in Open Access Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@UMass Amherst. For more information, please contact [email protected]. FROM TANK TRAILS TO TECHNOLOGY PARKS: THE IMPACT OF BASE REDEVELOPMENT FOR NEW ENGLAND A Dissertation Presented by BERND F. SCHLIEMANN Submitted to the Graduate School of the University of Massachusetts Amherst in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY MAY 2012 Regional Planning © Copyright by Bernd F. Schliemann 2012 All Rights Reserved FROM TANK TRAILS TO TECHNOLOGY PARKS: THE IMPACT OF BASE REDEVELOPMENT FOR NEW ENGLAND A Dissertation Presented by BERND F. SCHLIEMANN Approved as to style and content by: _______________________________________ Henry C. Renski, Chair _______________________________________ John R. Mullin, Member _______________________________________ Michael A. Ash, Member ____________________________________ Elizabeth A. Brabec Department Head Landscape Architecture and Regional Planning DEDICATION This dissertation is dedicated to my beautiful wife Bianca for her endearing support of each of my professional and personal endeavors. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I wish to acknowledge the guidance and support of my committee. Each of you has helped me during different and crucial times of this research effort. Dean Mullin was particularly instrumental in the initial formulation of the research concept, Professor Ash provided frequent thoughtful guidance for my analysis, and Professor Renski offered keen insight into the research process and provided expert review of my work. v ABSTRACT FROM TANK TRAILS TO TECHNOLOGY PARKS: THE IMPACT OF BASE REDEVELOPMENT FOR NEW ENGLAND MAY 2012 BERND F. SCHLIEMANN, B.S., UNITED STATES MILITARY ACADEMY M.S., GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY M.B.A, UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS AMHERST Ph.D., UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS AMHERST Directed by: Professor Henry C. Renski Why do some communities thrive after closure of a major employment center such as a military base, while others suffer for many years with long-term unemployment, decaying infrastructure, or other indicators of a weak economy? Through a mixed- methods approach, this paper examines a wide variety of community characteristics from past base closures, builds a model of the most relevant indicators of success or failure, and then offers redevelopment lessons to communities facing base redevelopment. This research incorporates a multivariate statistical analysis including panel regression and then a historical study of the five major BRAC closures in New England. While strong pre-existing economic and social conditions are indicative of successful recovery in many situations, there is no universal set of indicators that can predict success. Nonetheless, there are actions that communities can take to help navigate a military base redevelopment – these include establishing a strong leadership system, aggressively seeking federal and state funding, and orchestrating comprehensive planning that synchronizes market research with available infrastructure and opportunity. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .......................................................................................................... v ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................ vi LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................... ix LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................... x CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Overview ........................................................................................................... 1 1.2 History of Military Base Closings....................................................................... 1 1.3 Purpose, Study Objectives and Primary Hypothesis ......................................... 3 1.4 Research Significance and Relevance to Policy ................................................ 6 1.5 Organization of the Study ................................................................................. 7 2. LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................... 9 2.1 Key Literature and Concepts ............................................................................. 9 2.2 Economic Base Theory ...................................................................................... 9 2.3 Regional Adjustment Theory .......................................................................... 11 2.3.1 Neoclassical Growth ........................................................................ 12 2.3.2 Cumulative Causation ...................................................................... 14 2.3.3 New Growth Theory ......................................................................... 16 2.4 Industry Clusters ............................................................................................. 17 2.5 Quality of Place ............................................................................................... 18 2.6 Empirical Research .......................................................................................... 20 2.7 Base Closure Process, Impacts, and Research ................................................ 22 2.7.1 The BRAC Process ............................................................................ 23 2.7.2 Impacts of Base Closings .................................................................. 25 2.7.3 Econometric Studies ........................................................................ 30 2.8 Case Studies .................................................................................................... 33 2.9 Applicability to Dissertation Research ............................................................ 37 vii 3. RESEARCH METHODS ............................................................................................ 40 3.1 Overview ......................................................................................................... 40 3.2 Statistical Analysis Framework ....................................................................... 42 3.2.1 Independent Variables ..................................................................... 44 3.2.2 Study Database ................................................................................ 49 3.3 Historical Study ............................................................................................... 52 3.4 Threats to Validity ........................................................................................... 52 4. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS .......................................................................................... 61 4.1 Overview ......................................................................................................... 61 4.2 Multivariate Descriptive Statistics .................................................................. 69 4.3 Comparison of Communities with Open and Closed Bases ............................ 69 4.4 Results Using Longitudinal Data ..................................................................... 69 4.4.1 Model Specifications ........................................................................ 70 4.4.2 Panel Regression Results ................................................................. 71 4.5 Applicability to Planning ................................................................................. 77 5. HISTORICAL STUDY ................................................................................................ 80 5.1 National Base Closure Overview ..................................................................... 80 5.2 New England Base Closure Overview ............................................................. 81 5.3 Selection of Bases for Historical Study ........................................................... 86 5.4 Historical Studies of New England BRAC Closures .......................................... 88 5.4.1 Pease Air Force Base ........................................................................ 89 5.4.2 Fort Devens ...................................................................................... 97 5.4.3 Loring Air Force Base ..................................................................... 105 5.4.4 South Weymouth Naval Air Station ............................................... 112 5.4.5 Brunswick Naval Air Station ........................................................... 120 5.5 Analysis 126 6.
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