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Latrobe Valley Regional REHABILITATION STRATEGY Latrobe Valley Regional REHABILITATION STRATEGY Regional Water Study Synopsis Report Published by the Department of Jobs, Precincts and Regions 1 Spring Street Melbourne, Victoria 3000 Telephone (03) 9208 3799 Prepared by the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning 8 Nicholson Street East Melbourne, Victoria 3002 Telephone 13 61 86 October 2019 © Copyright State Government of Victoria 2019 This publication is copyright. No part may be reproduced by any process except in accordance with provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. Authorised by the Victorian Government, Melbourne. Designed by DJPR Design Studio ISBN 978-1-76090-203-2 (Print) ISBN 978-1-76090-204-9 (Online) Disclaimer This publication may be of assistance to you but the State of Victoria and its employees do not guarantee that the publication is without flaw of any kind or is wholly appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims all liability for any error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you relying on any information in this publication. Accessibility This publication is published in PDF and Word formats on djpr.vic.gov.au Contents Context and scope 2 Key findings 3 1. Water availability 3 2. Alternative water sources 4 3. Water quality 4 4. Ecological implications 5 5. Groundwater Monitoring 5 Technical summary 6 1. Environmental effects scoping study 6 2. Climate change projections 6 3. Water supply options feasibility assessment 7 4. Integrated water resource modelling scoping study 8 5. Pit lake water quality modelling scoping study 8 6. Environmental flow recommendations 9 7. Water availability 11 8. Water use scenarios 12 9. Groundwater flux modelling 12 10. Regional groundwater projections 13 11. Water-related effects 13 12. Pit lake modelling 14 13. Water availability for mine rehabilitation 14 LATROBE VALLEY REGIONAL REHABILITATION STRATEGY 1 REGIONAL WATER STUDY SYNOPSIS REPORT CONTEXT AND SCOPE The Latrobe Valley Regional Rehabilitation Strategy (LVRRS) is part of the Victorian Government’s response to the findings of the Hazelwood Mine Fire Inquiry (HMFI), which found significant uncertainties and knowledge gaps surrounding the rehabilitation and closure of the Latrobe Valley’s three brown coal mines. The HMFI’s Board of Inquiry found that, with the current knowledge available, some form of water body was the most viable rehabilitation option for the coal mine voids, but that many unanswered questions remain concerning the feasibility of the potential mine pit lakes1. The Strategy will address some of these knowledge gaps through technical studies undertaken as part of the Latrobe Valley Regional Rehabilitation Strategy. The Strategy considers the mines individually and collectively in the context of potential impacts (positive and negative) on the environment, Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal cultural heritage values, infrastructure and land uses in the Latrobe Valley, with a particular focus on water and land stability. The primary objective of rehabilitation is to achieve a safe, stable and sustainable landform for the closed mines. The Regional Water Study assessed: This synopsis summarises the key 1. Potential water availability and findings of the Regional Water use of regional water resources Study, covering the following areas: for mine rehabilitation 1. Environmental effects 2. Potential alternative water 2. Climate change projections sources to those currently 3. Water supply options available to the three mines 4. Integrated water resource 3. Potential water quality impacts modelling in water bodies, groundwater and off-site surface waters 5. Pit lake water quality modelling 4. Potential impacts on aquatic 6. Environmental flow ecosystems and downstream recommendations users 7. Water availability 5. Scope of likely requirements for 8. Water use scenarios long-term regional groundwater monitoring. 9. Groundwater flux modelling 10. Regional groundwater projections 11. Water-related effects 12. Pit lake modelling 13. Water availability for mine rehabilitation 1 http://hazelwoodinquiry.vic.gov.au/201516-report/volume-iv-mine-rehabilitation/index.html 2 LATROBE VALLEY REGIONAL REHABILITATION STRATEGY REGIONAL WATER STUDY SYNOPSIS REPORT KEY FINDINGS 1. WATER AVAILABILITY • In three consecutive years It would take 15 to 30 years to fill (2011–2013) since 1997, inflows each mine pit with water using The Latrobe Valley has experienced significantly exceeded existing water sources dry conditions since 1997, and minimum flow needs and • Hazelwood has a void volume the LVRRS will need to be able consumptive use, indicating of 640 GL, and using a to account for uncertainty that climate and streamflow combination of groundwater around future climate and water still has the capacity to deliver (pumped for stability) and availability by planning for a good water years, although surface water, would take continuation of this drying trend potentially at a reduced 15 to 20 years to fill without and a drier future. frequency compared to interruption. If the dry conditions currently being pre-1997 conditions. • Yallourn has a predicted experienced in Gippsland continue • Under long-term average final void volume of 725 GL into the future, there is a risk of conditions with a median climate at closure (2032), and using impacts if surface water is supplied change projection, average the same amount of surface for mine rehabilitation without water availability is likely to be water currently used for power conditions that protect other water sufficient to allow the mines to fill generation plus a supply of users and the environment. at a rate limited to current levels surface water equivalent to that of consumptive use for power • Average inflows since 1997 supplied to Hazelwood after generation without significantly into the Latrobe River system supply to Hazelwood ceases, impacting river function or water have declined sharply from would take 20 to 25 years to fill security until about 2035, after pre-1997 levels – from 800 GL/y without interruption. to 600 GL/y. which water availability may become more limited. • Loy Yang has a predicted final • Climate change projections for void volume of 1,420 GL at closure • Under current conditions or the region indicate a wide range (2048), and at current levels of a dry climate, average water of possible futures, from very groundwater and surface water availability is significantly lower, dry (500 GL/y average at 2040) usage would take 25 to 30 years with a relatively large proportion to wet (1,000 GL/y at 2040). The to fill without interruption. median prediction is a marginal of years in which surface water decline to 700 GL/y average supply for mine rehabilitation • These timeframes could be by 2040, and 650 GL/y by 2065. could not be sustained, although extended significantly if filling there could also be years of from surface water sources is • Water resource modelling relatively high water availability delayed due to dry conditions, or indicates that the recent dry in which water for rehabilitation shortened if smaller fill volumes period since 1997 could imply could be accommodated. are needed or additional water different trajectories for sources come available for use. future climate: • Although filling the mine voids with water would pose – The decline could be ‘on- a significant demand on the trend’, following a drying Latrobe system, supply of climate projection water for this purpose could (i.e. not a drought but be feasible if it is accepted the ‘new normal’) that the filling rate is limited – The decline could be a to the power stations’ current drought (temporary), with the annual net usage and that possibility of reversion to the filling is restricted or halted long-term average (closer to under dry conditions to prevent 800 GL/y) subject to a future unacceptable impacts on water possible decline associated security, other water users and with climate change. values including river function and the Lower Latrobe wetlands • Since 1997, there have been and Gippsland Lakes. shortfalls in river flows in 15 of 21 years, by up to 67% compared to • New water demands or future an average year, after extraction growth in the Latrobe Valley for consumptive uses. could reduce the amount of water available for mine rehabilitation if water availability is limited in the future and new sources of water are not found. LATROBE VALLEY REGIONAL REHABILITATION STRATEGY 3 REGIONAL WATER STUDY SYNOPSIS REPORT Top-up for evaporative losses would 2. ALTERNATIVE WATER 3. WATER QUALITY be needed to maintain pit lakes SOURCES Water quality risks are not • An external supply of water Currently there are no alternative significant and are manageable would be needed to make up for water sources that are considered evaporative loss from potential • No significant sources of more feasible than existing water potential pollutants were pit lakes in order to maintain sources for mine rehabilitation, the required lake level. identified in the Hazelwood and although this may change in Loy Yang mine voids, and no • Under current climate conditions, the future significant water quality risks about 4–6 GL per year per • No alternative water sources were identified based on known mine void would be needed to of suitable quality, volume or mine materials at these sites. maintain water levels, totalling comparative cost are currently about 15 GL/y for all three mines. • Yallourn has a significant considered feasible at the quantity of stockpiled acid This is likely to increase under present time to
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