Programme at a Glance
Time Wednesday, 11 September 2013 Thursday, 12 September 2013 Friday, 13 September 2013
8h00 Registration and check-in 8h30 9h00 - 9h30 Opening Session Parallel Session Parallel Session 9h30
Opening Plenary 10h30 - 11h00 Coffee break Coffee break
11h00 - 11h20 Coffee break
11h20 Parallel Sessions Parallel Sessions Second Plenary
13h00
13h00 - 14h00 Lunch Lunch and CLASP Informal Session BUS Departure to Lisbon airport
14h00 - 14h15
14h15 - 15h35 Parallel Sessions Parallel Sessions
14h35 - 15h30 15h30 - 16h00 Coffee break Coffee break
16h00 - 18h00 Parallel Sessions Parallel Sessions
18h30 - 19h30 Visit to the Old University Departure to Palácio São Marcos 19h30 Welcome Reception in Museum Machado de Castro 21h00 Gala Dinner in São Marcos Palace 22h30
EEDAL2013 7th International Conference www.eedal-2013.eu Page 1 Coimbra, 11 to 13 September 2013
Wednesday, 11 September 2013
8h00 - 9h00 Registration and check-in
Opening Plenary Session 9h00 – 11h00 Chair: Paolo Bertoldi, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy and Transport
Engº. Jorge Moreira da Silva, Portuguese Minister of Environment and Energy Dr. Heinz Ossenbrink, Head of Unit, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy and Transport Dr. A. K. Ahenkorah, Executive Secretary of the Energy Commission, Ghana 9h30 – 11h00 Mr Graham M. Pugh, Director, International Climate Change Policy and Technology, Office of Policy and International Affairs, U.S. Department of Energy Mr. Philippe Benoit, Head of Division, International Energy Agency Mr. Ismo Gronroos-Saikkala, Head of Sector, European Commission, DG ENER Prof. João Gabriel Silva, Rector of University of Coimbra
11h00 - 11h20 Coffee break
Second Plenary Session 11h20 - 13h00 Chair: Anibal de Almeida, University of Coimbra
Engº. Pedro Rocha, EDP: "Creating new customer experiences in changing energy markets" Dr. Gerhard Kuhn, OSRAM Opto Semiconductor GmbH: "LED Interior Lighting - Trends and Challenges" 11h20 – 13h00 Dr. Martin Forsén, Swedish Heat Pump Association, SVEP: “ Heat pump technology – A key to decarbonize residential heating”
13h00 - 14h00 Lunch
EEDAL2013 7th International Conference www.eedal-2013.eu Page 2 Coimbra, 11 to 13 September 2013
Wednesday, 11 September 2013
Parallel Session 1 a Session 1 b Session 1 c Session 1 d Sessions Room Auditorium Amphitheater A Amphitheater B Amphitheater C
Programme and Policies Topic International Co-operation Metering I Residential appliances I Monitoring&Evaluation I
Chair Paolo Bertoldi Alan Meier Paul Waide Gerhard Fuchs 006 Encouraging public support for smart 136 Improving confidence of evaluation of 004 Are German consumers using their 037 The benefits of creating a cross-country metering through demonstrating energy energy savings through international dishwashers in an energy-efficient way? An data framework for energy efficiency saving potential of appealing home energy standards Online Study of German Households
management 14h00 Alex Katzman*, Michael McNeil, Stephen Li Pengcheng, Liu Meng, Chen Haihong Sandra Bichler, Susanne Gorny, Rainer Pantano Henk van Elburg China National Institute of Standardization, Stamminger *Enervee, USA NL Agency, The Netherlands China Bonn University, Germany
025 The SEAD Global Efficiency Medal 106 Energy & Appliances 2015 project: a new Competition: Accelerating Market 028 Sustainability – Measuring Environmental approach for testing appliances with respect to Transformation for Efficient Televisions 196 Detailed end-use metering of domestic Impacts end-users behavior appliances in Japan Sriram Gopal, Kevin Messner, Wayne Morris Kavita Ravi*, Peter Bennich, John Cockburn, Patrizia Pistochini*, P. Zangheri, S. 14h30 Naoko Doi, Sandeep Garg, S.P. Garnaik, Takahiro Tsurusaki, Tatsunori Tsujimaru, (Presented by Charlotte Skidmore) Fumagalli, M. Chiesa, G. Bottani, E. Gallo, G. Shane Holt, Mike Walker, Elizabeth Chiharu murakoshi, Hidetoshi Nakagami Association of Home Appliance Leonardi, V. Longoni, D. Scarano, V. Westbrook-Trenholm, Anna Lising,Steve Jyukankyo Research Institute, Japan Manufacturers, USA Tarantini, M. G. Villani Pantano, Amit Khare, Won Young Park *ENEA, Italy * U.S. Department of Energy USA
174 Development of an interactive web 080 Consumer-relevant assessment of 127 Game Consoles: Comparing International 082 Economic analysis of the energy-efficient application to improve residential end-use automatic dishwashing machines by a new Policy Actions household appliances and the rebound effect efficiency testing procedure for ‘automatic’ programmes
15h00 Paul Ryan*, Jonathan Wood Abdessalem Tahar, Labidi Etidel HJ Vermeulen, Catharina du Preez Anna Bruchner, Rainer Stamminger * EnergyConsult Pty Ltd., Australia Tunisia Polytechnic School, Tunisia Stellenbosch University, South Africa Universität Bonn, Germany
15h30 - 16h00 Coffee break
EEDAL2013 7th International Conference www.eedal-2013.eu Page 3 Coimbra, 11 to 13 September 2013
Wednesday, 11 September 2013
Parallel Session 2 a Session 2 b Session 2 c Session 2 d Sessions Room Auditorium Amphitheater A Amphitheater B Amphitheater C
Programme and Policies Topic Strategies for Increasing Efficiency I Metering II Residential Appliances II Monitoring&Evaluation II
Chair Philippe Riviere Alicia Carrasco Hosein Haeri Christofer Wendker 166 Bottom-up scenario calculations for 10 124 Towards an Evaluation Framework for world regions reveal worldwide efficiency Appliance Standards, Labeling, and Incentive 095 Heat Pump Tumble Driers: New EU 064 The impact of home energy feedback potentials of about 50 % for refrigeration and Programs in China Energy Label and Ecodesign Requirements in displays and load management devices in a washing Europe, MEPS in Switzerland, Initiatives in low energy housing development John Romankiewicz, Nan Zhou, Edward Vine, North America 16h00 Claus Barthel, Thomas Götz, Antoine Nina Zheng Khanna, David Fridley David Whaley, S.R. Berry, W.Y. Saman Durand, Lena Tholen Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory CA, Eric Bush, Diane Damino, Barbara Josephy University of South Australia, Australia Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment USA Topten International Services, Switzerland
and Energy, Germany (Presented by: Michael McNeil)
054 Measuring Electric Energy Efficiency in 098 Home Automation for a sustainable living 200 An econometric model to access 090 Vacuum space insulation for household Portuguese Households: a tool for energy – Modelling a detached house in Northern residential electricity savings in the EU appliances policy Finland
16h30 Paolo Bertoldi*, Bettina Hirl Roland Brüniger, Johannes Eckstein, Hans Thomas Weyman-Jones*, Júlia Mendonça Jean-Nicolas Louis*, Antonio Caló, Kauko * European Commission, Joint Research Tischhauser, Gerhard Staufert Boucinha, Catarina Feteira Inácio Leiviskä, Eva Pongrácz Centre, Italy Swiss Federal Office of Energy, Switzerland * Loughborough University, UK * University of Oulu, Finland
186 Early replacement of circulator pumps - 097 Benchmark results towards energy 118 Measuring Success in Mid-Stream lessons from 400,000 PumpChecks motivating 193 Lessons from a large scale energy efficiency in residential care homes for the Programs: Design and Evaluation one in two German home owners consumption study in UK households elderly Recommendations from a TV Program
17h00 Dr. Johannes D. Hengstenberg, Justus von Chris Evans Paula Fonseca*, Pedro Esteves, Lino Marti Frank, Jane Peters, Joe Van Clock, Widekind Consumer Research Associates Ltd, UK Marques, Aníbal de Almeida, Darko Fercej Alex Dunn, co2online gmbH * University of Coimbra, Portugal Research Into Action Inc., Oregon, USA Germany
022 Project ACHIEVE: promotion of practical 068 Office Luminaires: voluntary labels can 123 The Supply Side Matters: Estimating the and structural solutions that help Europeans to 017 Whole Home Energy Use Study with pave the way to the next level in energy Impact of a Residential Lighting Program reduce fuel poverty Comprehensive Metering Package saving Using Sales Data
17h30 Marie Moisan*, Lidija Živčič, Barbara Kalker Robert Davis Eva Geilinger, Tobias Schleicher, Stefan Iris Sulyma, K.H. Tiedemann *CLER – Réseau pour la transition Ecotope, Inc, OR, USA Gasser, Eric Bush BC HYDRO, Canada énergétique, France (Presented by Alan Meier) Topten International Services, Switzerland
18h00 Visit to the old University and Welcome Reception
EEDAL2013 7th International Conference www.eedal-2013.eu Page 4 Coimbra, 11 to 13 September 2013
Thursday, 12 September 2013
Parallel Session 3 a Session 3 b Session 3 c Session 3 d Sessions Room Auditorium Amphitheater A Amphitheater B Amphitheater C
Programme and Policies Topic Buildings Smart Appliances Consumer Electronics I Monitoring&Evaluation III
Chair Anibal de Almeida Rainer Stamminger Jim McMahon Doug Johnson 089 Energy and Economic Optimization to Achieve Near Zero Energy Homes in Europe: 029 Smart Appliances: The Future of 105 Systematic market monitoring: a pilot 066 Meeting the Challenge of Power Supply Implications of Inclusion of Lighting and Appliance Energy Efficiency project on TVs demonstrates the value for Efficiency in Regulations with Low Power Appliances policy design Modes 8h30 Kevin Messner, Charlotte Skidmore Danny S. Parker, Philip W. Fairey, Andreas Association of Home Appliances Sophie Attali, Anette Michel, Eric Bush Richard Fassler H. Hermelink Mmanufacturers, USA Topten International Services, Switzerland Power Integrations, USA Florida Solar Energy Center, U.S.A.
110 The electricity consumption of household 086 Advanced Renovation of three 018 “Battery Charger Systems: The Next 146 Improving Energy Efficiency with Smart appliances in the European Union and the Residential Buildings – Evaluation of a Field Cross-cutting Policy Opportunity to Address Home Appliance Monitoring effects of existing EU energy efficiency Test Plug Load Energy Use” policies on its evolution
9h00 Amar Seeam, Jing Liao, Lina Stankovic, Davide Calì, Tanja Osterhage, Rita Streblow, Suzanne Porter*, David Denkenerger, Peter Vladimir Stankovic Nicola Labanca*, Paolo Bertoldi, Bettina Hirl Dirk Mueller May-Ostendorp, Pat Eilert The University of Strathclyde, UK * European Commission, Joint Research RWTH Aachen University, Germany * Ecova, USA Centre, Institute for Energy and Transport
078 Short term policy strategies and long term targets: the case of the German building sector 154 Trends in Residential Electricity Use and 189 Potential for Energy Savings for Personal 053 Where are the Smart Appliances? Other Lesson from Data Analysis Video Recorders in Australia Lukas Kranzl*, Veit Bürger, Hans-Martin
9h30 Henning, Marcus Hummela, ‚Judit Kockat, George Wilkenfeld Virve Rouhiainen Keith Jones, Paul Rayn Andreas Müller, Andreas Palzer, Jan George Wilkenfeld and Associates, Australia Adato Energia Oy, Finland Digital CEnergy, Australia Steinbach
Energy Economics Group,Vienna University of Technology, Austria
207 Energy Efficient Products and Smart 071 Assessment of electricity consumption 205 Impact on energy consumption of a home 150 Behave and save money in consumer Homes explanatory factors for large electrical automation system. A case study electronics products appliances
Angeliki Papadopoulou, Bas Flipsen, Sacha 10h00 Angelo Baggini*, Franco Bua, Annalisa Laura Carvalho*, F. Ferreira, A.R. Antunes, Silvester, Han Brezet Bruno Lapillonne* and Carine Sebi, Didier Marra F. Alves, S. Ramos Delft University of Technology, Bossebouef University of Bergamo, Italy Quercus A.N.C.N., Portugal The Netherlands *Enerdata, France
10h30 Coffee break
EEDAL2013 7th International Conference www.eedal-2013.eu Page 5 Coimbra, 11 to 13 September 2013
Thursday, 12 September 2013
Parallel Session 4 a Session 4 b Session 4 c Session 4 d Sessions Room Auditorium Amphitheater A Amphitheater B Amphitheater C
Financing, Subsidies, Energy Efficiency Topic Strategies for Increasing Efficiency II Smart Homes Consumer Electronics II Funds
Chair Stefan Thomas George Wilkenfeld Paula Fonseca Richard Fassler 099 Italian financial and energy saving 012 Community based social marketing and 091 Smart home system: integration of 131 Energy efficient broadband infrastructure policies: Cost/Benefit Analysis based on the energy efficiency – an evaluation of energy facilities and environmental factors in mobile and fixed networks and use in the Enea Reports issued within the survey span engagement strategies and domestic retrofit domestic sector 2007 – 2010 policies Weiliang Zhao, Lan Ding, Paul Cooper, 11h00 Pascal Perez, Duane Robinson Slavisa Aleksic*, Gerald Franzl,Thomas Lorenza Di Pilla*, Per Heiselberg, Anna Aaron Gillich, Minna Sunikka-Blank Sustainable Building Research Centre, Bogner, Oskar Mair vom Tinkhof Joanna Marszal, Salvatore Mura University of Cambridge, UK University of Wollongong, Australia Vienna University of Technology; Austria *Cagliari University, Italy
027 Do we know the way now? Using 051 Enhancing energy efficiency – Product international comparison to confirm a policy 149 Use cases & requirements for smart 019 Energy use trends, policies and savings related incentive schemes for the general package that can deliver energy savings from home environment opportunities related to consumer electronics public appliances
11h30 Josef Baumeister, Gerhard Fuchs Noah Horowitz Kathrin Graulich, Corinna Fischer, Ina Lena Tholen, Stefan Thomas, Thomas BSH Bosch und Siemens Hausgeräte GmbH, Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), Rüdenauer, Dietlinde Quack Adisorn Germany USA Oeko-Institut e.V. Freiburg, Germany Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Germany
049 The practical scope for reducing air 133 Smart domestic solar -Why solutions for 063 An Investigation of China’s Subsidy conditioning energy consumption in Europe: solar thermal and photovoltaics do not Program for Energy-saving Products 119 Audio-Video Inter-Device Power Control policy opportunities and priorities integrate into home automation? 12h00 Zheng Tan*, Hu Bo, Li Jiayang, Zeng Lei Bruce Nordman, H.Y. Iris Cheung Roger Hitchin, Christine Pout, David Butler Gerfried Cebrat *Top10 China Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA Building Research Establishment, UK Energie-und Umweltconsulting, Austria (Presented by Sophie Attali)
103 A Review of the Concept of Energy 076 The potential for domestic hot water Service Efficiency as a Metric for Assessing 199 Enhance energy efficiency, technical and tanks and hot-fill appliances to help balance 056 What is an energy efficient TV? Trying to the Provision of Energy Services in marketing tools to switch people habits in the power systems and reduce CO2 emissions find the best TV in China and in Europe Residential Buildings long term 12h30 Daniel Saker*, Daniel Saker1, Phil Coker, Anette Michel*, Eric Bush, Conrad U. Erica Marshall, J. Steinberger, T. Foxon and Gilles Guerassimoff, Johann Thomas Maria Vahdati, Charles Carey Brunner, Hu Bo, Diane Damino V. Dupont Mines ParisTech , France *University Of Reading, UK *Topten International Services, Switzerland University of Leeds, United Kingdom
13h00 Lunch break / Clasp Informal session to be held in ROOM 1
EEDAL2013 7th International Conference www.eedal-2013.eu Page 6 Coimbra, 11 to 13 September 2013
Thursday, 12 September 2013
Parallel Session 5 a Session 5 b Session 5 c Session 5 d Sessions Room Auditorium Amphitheater A Amphitheater B Amphitheater C
Focus on Developing Countries and Topic Lifestyles and Consumer Behaviour I Measurement Methods Residential Lighting I Economies in Transition I
Chair John Mollet Francesca Meloni Lloyd Harrington Casper Kofod 011 ATLETE II – Verification of the energy label and ecodesign declarations 152 An investigation of the power 198 An evaluation of the energy efficiency 072 “GfK Global Green Index” Consumers consumption and quality of supply of LED Level of households appliances and lighting in contribution to energy efficiency Stefano Faberi*, Michal Zakrzewski, Milena lamp Bauchi Town, Nigeria Presutto, Juraj Krivošík,, Therese Kreitz, 14h00 Patrick Niemeyer Edouard Toulouse, Thomas Bogner, Rainer Adiel Jakoef, HJ Vermeulen,, S Fast, JC Ibrahim Hussaini GfK SE, Germany Stamminger, Karolina Petersson, Nils Borg, Bekker Abubakar University, Bauchi, Nigeria Andrea Klag University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
*ISIS, Italy
020 High quality energy efficient lighting for 107 Are people continuing to save the domestic sector 035 A Proposed framework for moving electricity?: Consistency of measures and 014 Promoting enery efficiency refrigerators towards International comparability of behavior changes in the electricity crisis in Bernd Schäppi*, Thomas Bogner, ; George in Ghana appliance energy efficiency policies Japan Zissis, Paul Sabatier; Casper Cofod,; Suvi
14h30 Salmela, Reine Karlsson, Pedro Esteves, Eric Kumi Antwi-Agyei Debbie Karpay*, Stephen Pantano, Paul Ken-ichiro Nishio*, Kenta Ofuji* Sabine Piller, Michal Stasa, Aniol Esquerra UNDP-GEF-Energy Commission, Ghana Waide *Central Research Institute of Electric Power Alsius, Liga Ozolina, Andrea Roscetti;Tom *CLASP, USA Industry, Japan Lock,
*Austrian Energy Agency, Austria
203 Going down the efficiency road for domestic lighting: Detailed assessments of 137 The West African energy efficiency 092 Cold Wash – Do prejudices impede high 181 Are test procedures passing the test? possible savings in one-person house hold by policy: using efficiency to achieve universal energy savings? Ensuring that measured results are new, efficient lighting solutions - a study based energy access representative of energy use in the field on measurements and health aspects 15h00 Barbara Josephy, Eric Bush, Jürg Nipkow,
Mahama Kappiah*, Ibrahim Soumaïla, Anne Karin Kleeli, Sandro Glanzmann Chris Calwell, Ecova, USA Egil Ofverholm, Carlos Lopes, Zinaida Kadic, Rialhe, Cristina Clain, Edgar Blaustein Topten International Services, Switzerland Peter Bennich * ECREEE, France Swedish Energy Agency, Sweden
15h30 Coffee break
EEDAL2013 7th International Conference www.eedal-2013.eu Page 7 Coimbra, 11 to 13 September 2013
Thursday, 12 September 2013
Parallel Session 6 a Session 6b Session 6 c Session 6 d Session 6 e Sessions Room Auditorium Amphitheater A Amphitheater B Amphitheater C Room 1
Focus on Developing Countries Lifestyles and Consumer Topic Standards and Labels I Residential Lighting II Appliances and Economies in Transition II Behaviour II
Chair Ajit Advani Julia Boucinha Marie Baton Gustavo Manez Jeremy Tait 052 Timely replacement of 138 MaximizingcClimate benefits 030 Comparison of omni-directional notebooks considering energy through energy efficiency and 033 Residential survey to assess LED lamp performance: How do the 209 Widening the scope of the EU consumption and global warming refrigerant regulations for air South Africa´s energy saving IEA 4E performance tiers compare energy label potential conditioners: A case from India potential – energy efficiency to current LED lamp technology in
16h00 the United States? Stephanie Boulos, Louise Evans Siddharth Prakash*, Ran Liu, Amit Khare, Ana Maria Carreño Theo Covary*, Yoshiaki Shibata Ricardo AEA, UK Karsten Schischke,. Phil. Lutz CLASP, India *Unlimited Energy, South Africa Christopher Wold, Allison Hua Fan Stobbe (Presented by Stephen Pantano) CLASP, USA *Oeko-Institut, Germany (Presented by My Ton) (Presented by Tobias Scheicher) 002 Come On Labels - Supporting 085 Best available technology of 075 The Turkish energy efficiency energy labelling of products by plug-in refrigerated cabinets, 008 LEDs and Solid-State Lighting: plan – an ex-ante assessment of the monitoring labels in shops, beverage coolers and ice cream the potential health issues residential sector 039 Age as a determinant of collecting information about tests, freezers and the challenges of
residential energy demand supporting surveillance, and measuring and comparing energy Georges ZISSIS, Spiros Kitsinelis, Rainer Elsland, Can Divrak, Tobias promoting to consumers efficiency 16h30 Lydie Arexis-Boisson, Christophe Fleiter Philip Timpe, Matthias Deutsch Martinsons, Pierre Boulenguez, Competence Center Energy TU Dortmund University, Germany Juraj Krivošík, Corinna Fisher, Eva Geilinger, Martien Janssen, Samuel Carre Technology and Energy Systems, Milena Presutto Per Henrik Pedersen, Paul Huggins, Université de Toulouse, France Germany SEVEn, The Energy Efficiency Eric Bush
Center, Czech Republic Topten International Services, Switzerland 161 Nigerian energy efficiency 044 Study of the energy related 108 Evidence of progress- 040 Product classification for LEDs: 208 Efficiency strategies standard and label initiative: progress properties' impacts on the price of measurment of impacts of Lessons learned from other assessment for three appliances in so far and lessons learnt appliances on Chinese market Australia's S&L program from 1990- emerging technology efficiency the residential sector: refrigerator, 2010 policies 17h00 dishwashing and washing machines Uyigue Etiosa, Jason Yapp, Benoit Hu Bo*, Zheng Tan, Li Jiayang,
Lebot, Muyiwa Odele Zhao Feiyan Danielle Lowenthal-Savy, Michael Allison Fan, My Ton, James E. Henrique Pombeiro, Carlos Silva UNDP-GEF, Nigeria *Top10 China McNeil, Lloyd Harrington McMahon Instituto Superior Técnico, Portugal (Presented by Eric Bush) Duke University, Australia CLASP, USA 157 Understanding the consumer 060 Effects of appliance standby 202 Innovative add-on to the home perspective: product solutions to 001 YAECI – Yearly Appliance 081 A preliminary study of lighting electricity consumption on Turkish energy management system for enable and inspire consumers Energy Costs Indication energy performance in houses with residential electricity sector residential swimming pool energy various window systems efficiency 17h30 Francesca Meloni, Stefano Boudewijn Huenges Wajer*, Mustafa Cagri Sahin, Gul Nihal Frattesi, Fabioluigi Bellifemine, Rebecca van Leeuwen-Jones, Juraj Jiangtao Du*, Bengt Hellström, Gugul, Merih Aydinalp Koksal, Pedro Adão, António Coutinho, Lucio Bianchi Krivošík Marie-Claude Dubois Hacettepe University, Turkey Pedro Geirinhas Rocha Indesit Company SpA, Italy * NL Agency, The Netherlands Lund University, Sweden EDP Comercial SA, Portugal
18h30 Departure to Gala Dinner in Palácio São Marcos
EEDAL2013 7th International Conference www.eedal-2013.eu Page 8 Coimbra, 11 to 13 September 2013
Friday, 13 September 2013
Parallel Session 7 a Session 7 b Session 7 c Session 7 d Sessions Room Auditorium Amphitheater A Amphitheater B Amphitheater C
Topic Market Transformation Programmes I Demand Response Standards and Labels II Refrigerators
Chair Queirós de Almeida Paolo Bertoldi Kevin Messner / Charlotte Skidmore 041 Study on the energy efficiency of flat 165 Impact of residential demand response 034 Monitoring and Evaluation guide for panel televisions in China: implications for 102 Domestic refrigeration: low climate on the integration of intermittent renewable green public procurement programs energy efficiency standard, China energy change impact solution for energy efficiency generation into the Smart Grid labelling program and national incentive
8h30 Aure Adell, Bettina Schaefer, Kavita Ravi, policies James Bowman, Tim G. A. Vink Pedro Moura*, Gregorio López, José Jenny Corry Honeywell International, USA Moreno, Aníbal de Almeida Ecoinstitut, Spain Li Jiayang, Hu Bo, Zheng Tan, Zeng Lei (Presented by Bryan Magnus) *University of Coimbra, Portugal CLASP, Beijing, China
126 Energy efficiency and the Australian water 047 TV Energy consumption trends and heating market 125 Voluntary peak load curtailment: What 185 Unveiling the mysteries of refrigerator energy-efficiency improvement in the context drives household performance? energy consumption of the Eco-design Directive (EU) No 642/2009 Michael Whitelaw 9h00 for mandatory use of the TV energy label Department of Climate Change and Energy Dulane Moran, Hale Forster Lloyd Harrington
Efficiency, Australia Research Into Action, Oregon, USA Energy Efficient Strategies, Australia Beate Diga (Presented by George Wilkenfeld) GfK Retail and Technology GmbH, Germany
013 Appliance minimum energy performance 031 Avoiding 100 new power plants by 183 The Demand Reduction Potential of 067 Dynamic model for predicting energy Standards and Labelling (S&L) programmes: increasing efficiency of room air conditioners Smart Appliances in U.S. Homes consumption of a household refrigerator Whither thou Sub-Saharan Africa? in India: opportunities and challenges
9h30 Atefe Makhmalbaf, Viraj Srivastava, Graham Hiromi Habara, Sayako Nagayama, Ryo Mercy Shuma-Iwisi Amol Phadke,. Nikit Abhyankar, Nihar Shah Parker Nakano, and Yoshiyuki Shimoda University of Witwatersrand Lawrence Berkeley National, USA Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, USA Osaka University, Japan Johannesburg, South Africa
129 Techno-economic analysis for 117 Review of load research studies applied 147 Building capacity for better enforcement introduction of super-efficient refrigerators in 182 Transforming a residential appliance to the Portuguese household sector of EU Eco-design and Energy Labelling in an India market EU accession country – Turkey case study
10h00 Pedro Miguel, Luis Neves, A.Gomes Martins, Sumedha Malaviya, Amit Khare, Pramod K. H. Tiedemann, Iris Sulyma João Sousa Necmettin Tokur, Tom Lock Kumar Singh BC Hydro, BC, Canada University of Coimbra, Portugal UNDP-Turkey ICF International New Delhi, India
(Presented by Paolo Bertoldi)
10h30 Coffee break
EEDAL2013 7th International Conference www.eedal-2013.eu Page 9 Coimbra, 11 to 13 September 2013
Friday, 13 September 2013
Parallel Session 8 a Session 8 b Session 8 c Session 8 d Sessions Room Auditorium Amphitheater A Amphitheater B Amphitheater C
Topic Market Transformation Programmes II Lifestyles and Consumer Behaviour III Communication Residential HVAC
Chair Nicola Labanca Bruce Nordman Eric Bush 015 Development of a communicating power 032 Costs and benefits of energy efficiency 062 “Waking up the dragon – Can energy supply to assist in energy monitoring and 187 Economic and environmental analysis of improvement in ceiling fans efficiency induce new and more consuming management residential heating and cooling systems: a lighting practices?” study of heat pump performance in U.S. cities 11h00 Nihar Shah, Nakul Sathaye, Amol Phadke, Alan Meier, Steven Lanzisera, Anna Liao, Virginie Letschert Susana Fonseca Andrew Weber Kenji Takahashi Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA ISCTE, Portugal Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA Synapse Energy Economics,USA
130 Efficiency 2.1 – New media for best informed consumers regarding sustainable and energy efficient products 070 Household energy saved by changing behaviour -- A case study from four islands 026 Wireless communication in Smart Grids 178 High efficiency motor and drive for Thomas Bogner, Falko Müller, Michal Staša, Home Area Network: a survey residential HVAC Paola Pendenza, Cristina Ramos, Boštjan Antje Klaesener, Jan Jantzen, Sigurður Ingi 11h30 Krisper, Nikolaos Tsemperlidis, Evangelia Friðleifsson, Alexis Chatzimpiros, Kostas Victor Santos, João Trovão, Paulo Pereirinha Vijay Earanky, Paul Mullin, Kekeleki, Sophie Attali, Stephane Arditi, Komninos, Elsa López Suarez, Sandrine ISEC/IPC, Portugal Regal Beloit Corp, USA Bettina Scheucher, Bernard Govaert, Anna Carlier-Wiart Bogusz INNOVA S.p.A., Italy Austrian Energy Agency, Austria
140 What is the price of energy efficiency or 043 Study of China variable speed air 153 Residential energy consumption habits: which appliance efficiency class is the most conditioner: energy efficiency, life-cycle cost The way European consumers use energy 197 Energy efficiency in Inovcity Évora suitable? and impacts of subsidy program and their perceptions regarding energy
12h00 efficiency Paulo Monteiro Miha Tomšič, Anja Glušič Zhao Feiyan, Zhao Feiyan, Hu Bo, Zheng EDP Distribuição SA, Portugal Building and Civil Engineering Institute ZRMK, Tan, Li Jiayang, Zeng Lei Silviya Yordanova, Mihai Petcu Slovenia Top10, China CODA Strategies, France
100 SMARTplug: Using smart devices for a 160 Energy Profits with Controllable Electric 162 Influence of user behaviour and home 116 Ground-Source Heat Pump coupled with managed charge of electric vehicles Vehicle's Charger under Energy Box automation on energy consumption Thermal Energy Storage
Decisions Ricardo Faria, Victor Ramirez, Pedro Moura, 12h30 Viktor Grinewitschus, Tanja Lovrić, Nele João Fong*, André Quintino, Anabela José Moreno, Joaquim Delgado, Aníbal de Hugo Neves de Melo*, João Trovão, Paulo Rumler Carvalho, Aníbal de Almeida Almeida Pereirinha, Humberto Jorge University of Applied Science, Germany University of Coimbra, Portugal University of Coimbra, Portugal *INESC-Coimbra, Portugal
13h30 Bus Departure to Lisbon
EEDAL2013 7th International Conference www.eedal-2013.eu Page 10 Coimbra, 11 to 13 September 2013
Organizing Committee
Conference Co-Chairman Paolo Bertoldi, JRC European Commission, Italy
Conference Co-Chairman Aníbal T. de Almeida, ISR-University of Coimbra, Portugal
Conference Manager Paula Fonseca, ISR-University of Coimbra, Portugal
Technical Conference Manager Pedro Moura, University of Coimbra, Portugal
Conference Secretariat Lara Costa, ISR-University of Coimbra, Portugal Gueorgui Trenev, JRC European Commission, Italy André Quintino, ISR-University of Coimbra, Portugal Bruno Santos, ISR-University of Coimbra, Portugal Pedro Esteves, ISR-University of Coimbra, Portugal Ricardo Faria, ISR-University of Coimbra, Portugal
EEDAL2013 7th International Conference www.eedal-2013.eu Page 11 Coimbra, 11 to 13 September 2013
Scientific Committee
In alphabetical order:
Name Company Name Company Ajit Advani International Copper Alliance Laura VanWie Alliance to Save Energy Alan Meier Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Li Pengcheng China National Institute of Standardization Aníbal de Almeida ISR-University of Coimbra Lloyd Harrington Energy Efficient Strategies, Australia Benoit Lebot United Nations Development Programme Mittelham Lighting Europe Bob Harrison Consultant UK Stephanie Bruce Nordman Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Nawal Al Hosany Masdar Project Chris King Siemens Paolo Bertoldi JRC European Commission Christine Egan Collaborative Labeling and Appliance Standards Paolo Falcioni CEDED Program Pernille Collaborative Labeling and Appliance Christoph Wendker Miele & Cie. Kg Schiellerup Standards Program Conrad U. Brunner Topten International Services Peter Watt Energy Mad Daniel Valery EDF - Électricité de France S.A Philippe Rivière Mines ParisTech Diana Urge-Vorsatz CEU - Central European University Rainer Bonn University Stamminger Doug Johnson The Consumer Electronics Association Richard Schalbur Dansk Energi Eric Bush Bush Energie Sandeep Garg Consultant, India Felix van Eyken EHI – European Heating Industry Sandrine Eurovent Certification Flavio Cucchietti Telecomitalia Marinhas Fuchs, Gerhard BSH- Bosch und Siemens Hausgeräte GmbH Shane Holt Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism, Gilberto M Jannuzzi UNICAMP, the State University of Campinas Australia Jim McMahon Consultant USA Vincent Berrutto European Commission, Executive Agency for John Mollet International Copper Alliance Competitiveness and Innovation John Wilson The Energy Foundation Yamina Saheb International Energy Agency Karim Amrane Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute Kevin Messner Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers
EEDAL2013 7th International Conference www.eedal-2013.eu Page 12 Coimbra, 11 to 13 September 2013
Social Programme
Visit to University of Coimbra UNESCO World Heritage
Banquet in São Marcos Palace
Reception in Museum Machado de Castro
Main Sponsor
Gold Sponsor
Silver Sponsors
Supported by
Short Term Policy Strategies and Long Term Targets: The Case of the German Building Sector Lukas Kranzla, Veit Bürgerb, Hans-Martin Henningc, Marcus Hummela, ‚Judit Kockatd, Andreas Müllera, Andreas Palzerc, Jan Steinbachd a Energy Economics Group, b Oeko-Institut, Freiburg, c Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, d Fraunhofer Institute for System and Innovation Research ISI
Abstract
The German government set targets for the reduction of heating energy demand in buildings (-20% of space heating energy need 2008-2020) as well as for the share of renewables in the overall heat sector (14% by 2020). In addition, long-term visions up to 2050 exist. The research questions of this paper are: (1) How can different policies affect space heating and hot water energy demand in Germany by 2020? (2) To which extent are these short-term policy interventions consistent with long- term targets? We use Invert/EE-Lab for modelling the German residential and non-residential building sector. The model takes into account barriers and investment decision patterns for the uptake of renovation measures and the investment in different types of heating, hot water and cooling technologies. More than 60 short-term scenarios until 2020 are simulated with different policy design options and energy price levels. They serve as a starting point for simulating a smaller number of scenarios until 2050. The short-term scenarios show that with ambitious policy design final energy demand in the German building sector for heating, hot water and cooling could decrease by about 16% from 2008 until 2020 (i.e. below 680 TWh in 2020 compared to 808 TWh in 2008), GHG- emissions could decrease by more than 50% and the renewable share could more than double. Though, this may seem promising, the long-term scenarios indicate that most of the short-term scenarios do not prepare the ground for really ambitious energy efficiency and climate mitigation targets of the building sector in 2050.
Introduction
The German government set targets for the reduction of heating energy demand in buildings (-20% of space heating energy need 2008-2020) as well as for the share of renewables in the overall heat sector, including space heating, hot water, industrial heat and cold (14% by 2020) [1]. In order to reach these targets tailor-made policies are necessary. In addition, long-term targets and visions up to 2050 exist both on the European and the national level.[2] However, it remains unclear to which extent the short-term policy strategies until 2020 are in line with the 2050 targets.
The core research questions of this paper are: (1) How can different policies affect space heating, hot water and space cooling energy demand and related CO2-emissions in Germany by 2020? (2) To which extent are these short-term policy interventions consistent with long-term targets regarding energy demand and related CO2-emissions?
For this purpose, we start with a description and detailed investigation of the current policy framework for heating and hot water in Germany and develop innovative policy sets as options for the short-term implementation. These policy sets are investigated by means of a techno-socio-economic bottom-up model (Invert/EE-Lab, described below), based on a detailed, disaggregated description of the building stock and related heating and hot water systems. This set of policy scenarios is the starting point of long-term scenarios until 2050. As a guideline for the development of these long-term scenarios we take into account storylines, combining the level of efficiency improvement on the building envelope on the one hand and the uptake of different heating and hot water systems on the other hand. By comparing the results from both scenario families we derive conclusions.
The results of this paper have been elaborated in the frame of the project “Integrated heating and cooling strategy for Germany”, commissioned by the German ministry of environment (see e.g. [3] and [4]. This project covers the whole range of the heating and cooling sector, i.e. district heating and decentralized heating, space heating and cooling, domestic hot water and also process heat and cold. For the long-term scenarios until 2050, the results presented in this paper will be updated until the project end in Autumn 2013. In this paper we focus on space heating and hot water. So, we explicitly excluded process heat and cold and also a closer investigation of district heating supply structure. Space heating and hot water preparation are covered in residential and non-residential buildings.
Methodology
We use the disaggregated bottom-up model Invert/EE-Lab for the description of the German building sector. The model takes into account stakeholder-specific barriers and investment decision patterns for the uptake of renovation measures and the investment in different type of heating, hot water and cooling technologies. Policies change the structure of this decision-making process in the model. Short-term scenarios until 2020 are simulated with different policy design options and energy price levels. We take these results as a starting point for simulating a smaller number of scenarios until 2050. The results of these long-term simulation runs in terms of energy demand, technology mix and GHG-emissions are compared to literature-based energy and climate targets for the building sector.
The model Invert/EE-Lab
Invert/EE-Lab simulates space heating, AC and hot water demand in a region’s or country’s building stock and for evaluating the effects of different promotion schemes and energy price settings on the energy carrier mix, CO2 reduction and costs for RES-H support policies.
The Invert/EE-Lab simulation tool has originally been developed by Vienna University of Technology/EEG in the frame of the Altener project Invert [5]. During several projects and studies the model has been extended and applied to different countries within Europe, see e.g. [6], [7], [8], [9], [10], [11], [12]. The last modification of the model in the year 2010 included a re-programming process of the tool, in particular taking into account the heterogeneity of decision makers in the building sector and corresponding distributions [13], [14], [15].
Invert/EE-Lab in this paper is applied for Germany with the time horizon until 2050. However, recent and previous work also covered other countries and other time horizon (maximum until 2080). Currently, the model is extended for EU-28 (+Serbia) within the IEE project ENTRANZE (www.entranze.eu). The model is flexible regarding the number of heating and hot water technologies and the detailed definition of renovation measures to be considered in the scenario simulation.
The core of the tool is a myopical, cost-based logit approach, which optimizes objectives of agents under imperfect information conditions and by that represents the decision-making process concerning heating and hot water preparation. Invert/EE-Lab models the stock of buildings in a highly disaggregated manner.
For each year of the simulation period Invert/EE-Lab determines for each building segment the probability (expressed as share) that a building-related component (regarding building shell and heating / domestic hot water system) remains as it is and the probability (share) that one or more of these components are replaced. The share of buildings applying changes (measures) is calculated based on the age distribution of the considered building elements (facade, windows, heating and hot water systems, etc.) within the whole building stock using a Weibull distribution. The demolition of buildings is calculated in the same manner, yet considers life time expanding measures such as refurbishment in previous periods.
The share of the actual installation (market share) of available types is calculated based on adjusted heat generation costs using the logit approach, an approved and most widely used approach in the field of discrete choice theory (Train, 2003), where decision makers have to choose from mutually excluding alternatives. This approach has already been applied for modeling the heating sectors by other working groups (e.g. Giraudet et al. 2011; Henkel, 2010; Marnay and Stadler, 2008); their results indicate that this approach is also pertinent to our research questions. In principle, the applied logit model ensures that low-cost options, based on adjusted heat generation costs get the largest market share, but more expensive options hold some share, too.
2 Consideration of individual investment decision-making and investor-specific barriers
In Invert/EE-Lab the logit approach is extended by a few additional mechanisms like consideration of energy price development in recent years, an extension to a nested logit model, diffusion restrictions and other barriers. The agent-specific decision module allows a definition of different investor types and the simulation of investment decision making as a function of investor-specific variables reflecting barriers and perceptions. Figure 1 shows the structure of the module.
owns Investor Instance Building type
Building specific data Investor types Investment criteria Available technology Properties/ perception and renovation options Owner (occupier) Payback time Weights of criteria view: - Annual efficiency Private landlords Energy cost n(ci) - Resulting energy Information awareness demand Investments Joint-ownership Technical - CO2 Emissions Income/ Age Housing association Annuity of total costs Risk aversion - Investments .... Sustainability - Current and past Energy price perception energy prices Comfort
Economical Economical - Operation costs
- Financial support - Regulations Simulation Algorythm Policy - Information Agent Model Utility value
Nested logit model
Figure 1: Overview of the agent-specific decision module
For detailed description of the methodology refer to [16]. The simulation of investment decision making in this model is based on different economic and non-economic criteria which are calculated subsequently for each combination of technologies, buildings and investor types. The defined properties of an investor determine how an investment decision is made (relevance of different criteria) as well as the perception of investment options and influencing parameters. The latter might result in different values of the decision criteria if the same technology is considered by different investors. For instance, dissimilarities of criteria values among investors can result from unequal knowledge of subsidy schemes and their consideration in the investment decision-making process. With respect to regulative policies such as minimum efficiency standards defined by building codes the model allows defining agent-specific compliance rates. The usage of the building by the investor is also considered as a parameter in the decision process. Thereby, the model differentiates between investors occupying the whole building, collective ownerships, private landlords and housing associations. Energy cost savings through an energy retrofit or a heating system change are only a relevant parameter for owner-occupiers, whereas the refinancing of an investment through additional rents is considered for private landlords and housing associations.
Using the investor-specific criteria values, total utility values for each technology options are calculated. Therefore, economic and non-economic values are normalised to utility values using a linear transformation. The total utility value of a technology option is determined using weights for each criterion which are defined individually for each investor type.
K uti = ∑ wki ⋅ n(ckti ) k=1
uti : total utility value of technology t in choice set of investor i wki :weight on criterion k set by investor i n(ckti ) : normalised value of criterion k for technology t in choice set of investor i
3 The result is a three dimensional matrix of utility values [technology options, building type x investor type] for each simulation year. [Steinbach 2013].
Typical investment behaviour of various agent groups is taken into account in the modelling approach. Thereby each agent is assigned with weighting factors for different decision parameters. These include total annual costs (annuity payment), amortization time, total investments, energy costs, comfort level as well as sustainability. The different agent types with their individual objectives and barriers are derived through a literature review, e.g. [17], [18] documented in [19]; [20].
Data sources
The German building stock is modelled on a highly disaggregated level. We distinguish five residential building categories (single-family houses, terraced houses as well as small, medium and large multi family houses) and 30 non-residential building categories (e.g. different private and public office buildings, shops, hospitals, schools etc.). For the residential sector we take into account 14 construction periods and different levels of previous renovation activities. For non-residential buildings, 3 construction periods are used, according to [21]. Combined with the different heating systems this results in a number of more than 4400 building segments.
To include these activities in the energy performance parameters the building stock in the base year 2008 was subdivided and U-values were adjusted for past renovation activity. To include the renovation information the building stock as laid out in the survey of [22] and updated in [23] was divided into 4 shares of different renovation levels according to their frequency. The first renovation level includes better energy performance parameters for one building component (e.g. windows). This is the most commonly renovated building part according to data interrogated in [24]. The second renovation level reflects the additional renovation of another building part, which is again identified by frequency of renovation in the survey data. Renovation levels three and four are determined in the same manner while the fifth share represents the buildings that were not renovated. The adjustment of the energy relevant parameters, i.e. the U-values of the building parts, was based on the renovation periods. For each period the most commonly used energy efficiency quality was assessed for the different building parts. The u-U-values for different renovation levels were subsequently adjusted to include a weighted average energy quality for the different renovation periods.
The main data source for the disaggregated description of the space heating and cooling demand in the non residential buildings in Germany is [21]. It is the follow-up of [25] and [26] each investigating the energy demand structure and developments in the German service sector based on bottom-up survey data. The innovative element in the 2011 survey was the integration of detailed questions regarding the energy demand for space heating and cooling. This led to the development of a buildings typology for the German service sector including the following main categories: type of building and use, size, age, specific demand as well as the number of buildings in each category. Data on the state of thermal insulation of the non-residential buildings is taken from [27].
In order to calibrate the model for the non-residential sector the bottom-up projections from [21] were compared to the German national energy statistics AGEB 2011. The comparison shows remarkable differences between the bottom-up and the top-down data for some energy carriers. The main reasons are: (1) a bottom-up projection based on a limited sample of data is characterized by a high level of uncertainty, (2) different assignment of technologies to energy carriers as is the case e.g. for small gas fired heating plants, (3) energy carriers that are not traded do not appear in the energy statistics while in the bottom-up projection they do, and (4) variations in the stocks of energy carriers influence the national energy balance while in the bottom-up survey they are out of the system boundaries.
The calibration of the model in the non-residential buildings sector furthermore led to the following findings: the heating demand of garages and storages calculated based on the national norms is much higher than in reality. On the one hand lower target temperatures are reached than foreseen by the calculations, and on the other hand only 30-50% (depending on the subsector) of the total floor area is fully conditioned.
4 Policy instruments
Existing policy instruments in the German building sector
Within the EU Germany is one of the few countries that have adopted long-term targets for the energy sector. In order to achieve a GHG reduction of at least 80% until 2050 (compared to the base year 1990) the building sector should become “nearly climate neutral” until the mid of this century. For the period until 2020 the sector’s heat demand should be reduced by 20% compared to 2008 while the share of renewable energies in final energy consumption (space heating, cooling, process heat and hot water production) should be increased to 14% [28].
The building sector is addressed by various instruments. Sector-specific approaches include regulatory measures, especially the building code and the use obligation for renewable heating (RES- H); in addition financial support programs for new buildings, refurbishment measures as well as investments in RES-H in existing buildings.
The building code is set by the Energy Saving Ordinance (Energieeinsparverordnung, hereafter EnEV) which establishes minimum efficiency standards. For new buildings maximum building-specific levels of the primary energy demand and the required energy performance of the building envelope (expressed in maximum values of the specific transmission heat loss related to the heat transmitting surface area) apply.
Apart from the building code new buildings underlie a use obligation for RES-H which obliges building owners to cover a minimum share of their heating (incl. domestic warm water) and cooling demand by renewables (Act on the Promotion of Renewable Energies in the Heat Sector, hereafter EEWärmeG). For different technologies different minimum levels apply (for instance solar thermal 15%; biogas 30%; solid and liquid biomass, heat pumps 50%).
Substantial financial support is provided by two program lines: “Energy efficient construction” and “market incentive programme: The programme “Energy efficient construction” is providing grants and tax-reduced loans to building owners of new buildings. Since the rate of construction of new buildings has been in the range of 1% in recent years the focus needs to be laid on the existing building stock, though. Here financial support is granted by the program “Energy efficient refurbishment”. The support level is tiered according to the efficiency level a modernization measure is aiming at. The more ambitious the energy standard the higher the support equivalent. For the different support levels distinct efficiency levels (e.g. Efficiency House 55, 70, 85) have been established all exceeding the minimum requirements set by the EnEV. The market penetration of RES-H installations in the building stock is supported by the market incentive programme (Marktanreizprogramm, hereafter MAP). Support is provided via grants (small scale installations) and soft loans (large scale installations). Similar to the EEWärmeG technology specific minimum requirements apply. The programme coverage is comprehensive, e.g. the majority of solar collectors that are installed on existing buildings are supported through the programme.
Apart from the sector-specific approaches there are a handful of cross-sectorial instruments that also have an impact on how the different actor groups behave in the sector. The most relevant instruments include: - The energy tax that increases the end-consumer price of the main final energy carriers in the heating and cooling sector, namely natural gas, heating oil and electricity. In recent years the tax level was in the range of the typical market-induced price fluctuations of the respective energy carriers, though. - The Emissions Trading Scheme (hereafter ETS) that has a direct impact on the price of electricity and district heat (provided the latter is generated in a power plant that underlies the ETS). - The European Ecodesign requirements that define minimum efficiency standards for the most relevant technologies in the heating sector (e.g. boilers, warm water generators, pumps), and the energy labelling requirements for such devices, respectively. - Regulations specifically addressing CHP (especially providing financial support). - Furthermore, there are programmes that aim at increasing the information and motivation level of the different decision-making groups in the heating and cooling sector as well as training and education of those who produce, trade, sell, purchase, operate and maintain the respective efficiency and renewable energy technologies, and those who provide advice. Finally, specific laws regulate the
5 relationship between landlord and tenant (e.g. toleration and cost allocation rules) or under which framework conditions refurbishment decisions need to be taken in the case of joint ownership (owner occupancy in multi-family buildings).
Development of innovative policy settings
In order to achieve the targets for the building sector the policy framework needs to be further developed. This is of particular importance in view of the long-term targets. Due to the rather long re- investment cycles in the building sector especially for the major structural components of a building, todays modernization standards will to a certain extent already determine the GHG level in 2050.
For that reason different policies and policy combinations are modelled that change the framework conditions in the building sector. In addition to several cross-sectorial instruments target group, sector and technology specific have been taken into account. The list of modelled measures includes instruments that are currently on the political agenda [28], approaches that proved to be successful in other countries as well as measures proposed by the authors. Several measures have been combined to jointly build policy bundles. The rationale behind policy bundles lies in the experience that many energy saving potentials in the building sector aren’t hampered by only one isolated barrier but rather a multitude of simultaneous barriers. Moreover, different target groups, e.g. homeowners of single-family houses, actors in the rental housing sector, homeowner associations, low-income homeowners, often have rather target group-specific barriers [29], [20]. This implies the need of policy bundles that include different, partly rather target-group specific measures as to address various barriers simultaneously.
Policy bundles have been developed alongside different policy lines. The following bundles have been modelled:
I. Focus on regulatory measures.
II. Focus on financial support instruments financed through public budgets.
III. Focus on financial support instruments financed independently from public budgets (or at least budget-neutral counter-financing by raising additional revenues to the public budgets).
IV. Ambitious and target group-oriented measures.
The bundles combine instruments of different design (see table 1). In addition, all bundles involve a number of measures aiming at improving quality and quality assurance, information, motivation and advice as well as training.
Short-term policy scenarios up to 2020
For the analysis we developed a total of more than 60 scenarios grouped in three scenario families and two energy price scenarios (high price according to [30] vs. low price according to [31]): (1) “hesitant consensus” describes a future without clear climate mitigation targets and without effective policies. (2) “Two tempi” shows quite ambitious targets and effective policy measures in Germany. However, due to a lack of global consensus, technological development is slow and diffusion constraints can be overcome only partly. (3) Under “global consensus” favourable conditions lead to an environment where barriers can largely be removed and technological development allows a faster diffusion of RES-H and renovation technologies. The title of this scenario family suggests that these favourable conditions could be created in particular under a regime of worldwide consensus for ambitious climate targets and effective policies.
Table 2 shows the simulations and setting of policy packages in the different scenario families. Under “hesitant consensus”, we simulated a “frozen policy” scenario. This frozen policy scenario assumes no further development of the policy framework for RES-H and building renovation after 2011. Under “two tempi” and “global consensus” we simulated different settings of policy packages as described above. For the purpose of this paper we want to derive conclusions regarding the requirements of short-term policy making compared to long-term targets. Therefore, a focus on the more ambitious scenarios is
6 relevant. Consequently, in the following we will present results for the scenario “frozen policy” and contrast them with several scenarios from the high-price “global consensus” scenario family.
Table 1: Main components of four different policy bundles
I II III IV New Gradual tightening of the building code until 2020 (objective: nearly zero energy standard) buildings EEWärmeG: no substantial changes KfW “Energy efficient construction”: Freezing of the available redirecting the funds for funds new buildings to refurbishments Existing Tightening of the KfW “Energy KfW “Energy Tightening of the buildings refurbishment efficient efficient refurbishment standards standards either refurbishment”: refurbishment”: either one off or two times once or twice by Increasing available Increasing available by 30% each time. 30% each time. funds funds by Improving compliance of Improving Introduction of tax implementing a these standards compliance of these incentives for budget neutral Replacing the MAP by a standards. refurbishment financing budget-independent quota EEWärmeG: measures mechanism or premium scheme for Extension of the MAP: Increasing (surcharge on RES-H RES-H use available funds energy tax) A range of target group- obligation to Replacing the MAP specific measures (incl. existing buildings by a budget target group-specific (trigger: boiler independent quota financial support) for replacement). or premium scheme private small scale owners for RES-H (self-occupancy and tenure), ownership associations, commercial owners and public buildings
Table 2: . Clustering of simulated policy packages
Focus subsidies Focus through Ambitious and Frozen regulatory public Independent of target group- Policy measures budget public budget oriented measures Hesitant X consensus Two tempi X* X* X* X Global consensus X X X X
(*) … without very ambitious measures n
Table 3 shows the key results for selected scenarios in the year 2020. Compared to the base year 2020 the total final energy demand could be reduced by 13-16%, the share of RES-H could be increased to about 15-23%. The high share of RES-H in 2020 is a result of an ambitious mix of strong regulatory measures (RES-H use obligation coming into effect in case of heating system change), economic incentives and various target-oriented measures (see above).
7 Table 3: . Key scenario results in the year 2020 in the short-term scenarios
Reduction in … (a) Share of …
is (c)
- H fossil fossil
ambient ambient energy solar thermal district heating Electricity fossil final Total energy demand decentral ed energy demand RES (b) Biomass Frozen-Pol hp 13% 22% 15% 12% 1% 1% 14% 4% 68% Energy saving enforcement once 15% 26% 16% 13% 1% 2% 14% 4% 66%
Energy saving
enforcement twice 16% 26% 16% 12% 1% 1% 14% 4% 67% Energy saving
measures enforcement Regulatory Regulatory twice + use obligation for RES-H heating system change 16% 32% 18% 15% 2% 2% 15% 5% 62% independent from public budget: premium 14% 23% 15% 13% 1% 1% 13% 4% 67% Subsidies RESH 15% 25% 16% 13% 1% 1% 13% 4% 67% public public budget through through Subsidies RES- H + renovation 15% 24% 16% 13% 1% 1% 13% 4% 67% Renovation + premium 16% 29% 17% 14% 1% 2% 14% 4% 64%
Renovation + Premium + use obligation for oriented oriented
measures RES-H - group target Ambitious and and Ambitious heating system change 16% 38% 23% 18% 2% 2% 16% 6% 56% (a) reduction refers to the reference year 2008 (b) electricity includes auxiliary energy, electricity for heat pumps, direct electric heating and hot water (c) includes decentralised biomass and small biomass district heating (below 2 MW). Biomass in large district heating is not covered here but included in the column “district heating”
Long-term policy scenarios until 2050
Long-term policy visions and targets for the building sector
A number of scenarios illustrate how the building sector could look like assuming the long-term climate targets are met (e.g. [31], [32], [30]). The scenarios coherently highlight the importance of the sector to reach a GHG reduction target exceeding 80%. The scenarios are rather heterogeneous about how the building sector will look like in detail. For instance, in [31] the specific average space heating energy need of the residential building stock decreases until 2050 to around 22% of the average value in 2008 (excluding domestic warm water). With a reduction of 85% (compared to 2005) in [32] the cut is even higher. In both scenarios the specific demand of the 2050 average building stock is considerably lower than of average new buildings built today. The remaining heat demand is mainly covered by renewables making the sector almost climate-neutral in the long term. In [30] the average specific space heating demand is lowered “only” by 57%. Compared to the other two scenarios insulation measures reducing the heat demand in [30] are partly compensated by a larger volume of renewables entering the sector.
Based on this background we formulated different storylines for the future long-term development of the building sector, which all have to be in agreement with the long-term political goals and which are mainly characterized by the following attributes: development of living area; development of electricity consumption; level and extent of energy retrofit of the existing building stock including replacement of
8 buildings by new ones; fraction of the building sector covered by district heat; mix of used heating technologies with a particular focus on the extent of using electric heat pumps, and finally the form and amount of biomass used in the building sector. Six possible developments - storylines – were formulated which are characterized by different compositions of the extent of change of these attributes:
1. Electricity-dominated building sector with strong increase of efficiency: here only moderate construction of new district heating networks will take place and biomass will not be a major energy source for the building sector, but electrically driven heat pumps will play an important role.
2. Electricity-dominated building sector with a low increase of efficiency: similar to the first one, but much more renewables will be needed in order to cover the higher remaining energy demand for space heating.
3. Building sector with a strong increase of district heating networks and with a strong increase of efficiency: district heating networks will play an important role in particular in urban areas and as such provide means for energy management on a city or district level.
4. Building sector with a strong increase of district heating networks and with a low increase of efficiency: similar to the system above district heating networks are important but a large of biomass will be needed in the building sector in order to fulfil the long-term political goals.
5. Building sector with a moderate increase of district heating networks and with a strong increase of efficiency: in such system a mix of all measures – efficiency, use of electric heat pumps, increased employment of district heating networks - will take place.
6. Building sector with a moderate increase of district heating networks and with a low increase of efficiency: in contrast to the storyline No 3 a large amount of biomass will be needed in the building sector in order to fulfil the long-term political goals.
Simulation results
Based on these key ideas of storylines, we carried out model-based simulation runs. All these model runs are ambitious scenarios in the sense that a strong reduction in fossil energy consumption and related CO2-emissions is achieved. However, the way how this target is achieved is different in the scenarios.
For the model implementation of the storylines outlined above we made the following assumptions:
In the efficient scenarios we assumed that from 2015 on only high quality and deep renovation activities take place. This would imply that all renovation activities are carried out in the quality of the current “KfW55-standard”. This would require a very strong regulative approach, combined with corresponding measures of training, quality assurance etc.
In the “less efficient” scenarios, from 2035 on, there is an obligation to carry out thermal renovation activities. Pure maintenance measures like painting the façade or the windows are not allowed anymore. In case that some refurbishment activity is set on some component of the building, a full renovation of the whole building has to be done. The financial support is the same as currently implemented in the German policy set.
The energy potential of district heating in 2050 is reduced to 50% compared to the base year in the “electricity-based scenarios”. In the remaining scenarios there is no restriction.
For all scenarios a RES-H use obligation was implemented. Until 2020 it applies to all buildings fndergoing a major renovation. From 2020 on it is applied to all buildings changing the heating system. This instrument is a major driver for take-up of non-fossil heating systems in all scenarios. Financial support (investment subsidies) for RES-H systems is implemented in all scenarios, however with different intensity: in the electricity-based scenarios no subsidies for biomass are granted, and slightly higher support levels for heat pumps are granted compared to the other scenarios.
9 In the electricity-based scenarios we assumed coupling between the electricity and the heating sector in the form that heat pumps are incentivised by lower electricity prices due to their potential to shift the load to periods with high generation of volatile renewable electricity.
The potential of biomass for heating purposes has been reduced in the electricity-based scenarios. In the other scenarios, the potential for decentralised biomass has been reduced as well. However, due to the growth of small biomass district heating, the overall amount of biomass in the heating sector slightly increases.
Figure 2 shows the final energy demand by energy carrier for two exemplary cases: the scenarios “1 electric efficient” and “2 electric less efficient”. Considerable progress is achieved in both scenarios and the reduction of fossil energy carriers is very similar. However, in the second case of lower energy efficiency higher electricity consumption and additional effort in exploiting renewable energy are required.
900 900 800 800 Coal 700 700 Heating oil 600 600 Natural gas 500 500 Electricity 400 400 District heating 300 300 Biomass 200 200 Final energy demand (TWh) Final energy demand (TWh) Ambient energy 100 100 Solar thermal 0 0 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 Figure 2: Final energy demand for space heating and hot water by energy carriers in the scenario “1 electric efficient” (left) and in the scenario “2 electric less efficient” (right) until 2050
900,000
Final energy demand 1 electric, efficient 800,000
700,000 Final energy demand 2 electric less effcient
600,000 Final energy demand 3 district heating, efficient
500,000 Final energy demand 4 district heating, less efficient
400,000 Final energy demand 5 mix, efficient
300,000 Final energy demand 6 mix, less effizient
200,000 Energy need, final energy (GWh) demand energy final need, Energy energy need space heating 1 electric, efficient 100,000 energy need space heating 2 electric less effcient - 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048
Figure 3: Energy need for space heating and total final energy demand for heating and hot water preparation in different scenarios until 2050, Germany Energy need for space heating refers to the theoretical calculation of energy need, without taking into account rebound effects and user behaviour. Final energy demand takes into account user behaviour and rebound effect.
10 Table 4: . Key scenario results in the year 2050 in the long-term scenarios
Reduction in … (a) Share of …
(c)
Total decentrali
final sed fossil - H
energy energy ambient ambient energy solar thermal district heating E lectricity fossil RES (b) demand demand B iomass 1 electric, efficient 68% 95% 58% 25% 17% 16% 19% 19% 11% 2 electric, less efficient 61% 94% 74% 25% 14% 18% 18% 23% 12% 3 district heating, efficient 66% 96% 63% 37% 12% 14% 29% 15% 9% 4 district heating, less efficient 52% 95% 64% 32% 20% 13% 26% 16% 8% 5 mix, efficient 67% 96% 61% 32% 13% 15% 23% 17% 10% 6 mix, less efficient 52% 95% 63% 27% 21% 14% 19% 13% 7% (a) reduction refers to the reference year 2008 (b) electricity includes auxiliary energy, electricity for heat pumps, direct electric heating and hot water preparation (c) includes decentralised biomass and small biomass district heating (below 2 MW). Biomass in large district heating is not covered here, but included in the column “district heating”
Table 5:. Key scenario results in the year 2020 in the long-term scenarios
Reduction in … (a) Share of …
(c)
Total decentrali
final sed fossil - H
energy energy ambient ambient energy solar thermal district heating Electricity fossil RES (b) demand demand B iomass 1 electric, 18% 31% 21% 17% 1% 3% 14% 5% 64% efficient 2 electric, 14% 28% 22% 16% 1% 3% 13% 5% 64% less efficient 3 district 17% 31% 22% 18% 1% 3% 16% 5% 63% heating, efficient 4 district 13% 28% 23% 18% 1% 3% 16% 5% 62% heating, less efficient 5 mix, 18% 31% 22% 17% 1% 3% 15% 5% 63% efficient 6 mix, less 14% 31% 22% 17% 2% 3% 14% 5% 61% efficient (a) reduction refers to the reference year 2008 (b) electricity includes auxiliary energy, electricity for heat pumps, direct electric heating and hot water preparation (c) includes decentralised biomass and small biomass district heating (below 2 MW). Biomass in large district heating is not covered here, but included in the column “district heating”
Figure 3 shows that the energy need for space heating can be reduced significantly, to 23% and 40% in the “efficient” and in the “less efficient” scenarios, respectively. This refers to a reduction in final energy demand to about 32% (scenario 1 electric, efficient) and 48% (scenarios 4 and 6). The total amount and shape of the reduction curve of energy need and final energy demand are different. This has several reasons: (1) The replacement of outdated, low efficient heating systems by modern, efficient heating systems tackles a substantial potential for efficiency improvement. This potential is
11 exploited around 2030 due to the lifetime of the heating systems. (2) There is a considerable rebound effect to be considered for thermal renovation measures. With stronger diffusion of thermal renovation the rebound effect compensates a larger and larger share of the theoretical energy savings (depicted in the graph as the energy need for space heating). (3) Building renovation and the related reduction of space heating energy need does not automatically lead to a reduction in energy need for hot water. Overall, the rebound effect compensates for the efficiency gains in the heating system.
The final energy demand (including solar thermal energy and ambient energy) is very similar in all “efficient” scenarios on the one hand and the “less efficient” scenarios on the other hand. Also, all scenarios show a strong increase of RES-H from about 10% in the base year (2008) up to the range of 58%-64% in 2050. The reduction in decentralised fossil energy demand in all scenarios is about 95% in 2050.
However, the mix of different RES-H technologies and energy carriers varies strongly. Table 4 shows the share of different RES-H technologies in 2050 for the different scenarios. The restriction of the biomass resource potentials leads to the lowest share of biomass in the electricity-based scenarios. This drives the uptake of heat pumps and solar thermal systems. Scenarios 4 and 6 lead to the highest share of ambient energy without a significantly higher electricity demand. This can be explained by the higher uptake of low-efficient air-source heat pumps in the “efficient” scenarios: in better insulated buildings high investments in efficient technologies do not pay off and therefore consumers tend to heating systems with lower investment, even with lower efficiency, if there are no additional efficiency standards and requirements in place (which we did not take into account).
Conclusions and discussion of open questions
Conclusions regarding 2020 scenarios
Measures for thermal renovation have only moderate effect until 2020 due to the long lifetime of building components and corresponding inertia. However, the stronger enforcement of building regulation shows effect also in the short-term. Higher economic incentives for thermal building renovation also show short-term effect. However, this would only be the case if high additional public budget is available for these measures (in the range of about 5 billion Euro).
Those packages which combine different regulatory measures and economic incentives with target oriented measures as well as training, education, and promotion activities show the highest impact. In particular this also includes a change of tenant’s laws, improved quality standard and higher compliance with standards.
The strongest diffusion of RES-H can be achieved with policy packages including use obligations coming into effect in case of heating system change. An improvement of financial incentives alone (investment subsidies) is not enough to reach the overall target of a RES-H share of 14% in the overall heating sector (which would require a share of at least 17-18% in the building sector).
Policy instruments financed independently from public budget by corresponding levies on fossil fuels may lead to a similar impact as current subsidy programs. However, a much lower amount of public budget would be required and a higher transparency and stability of the program could be achieved.
Conclusions regarding 2050 scenarios and the comparison with short-term scenario results
The competition for biomass for different purposes (energy and non-energy) is likely to become more and more severe. From an exergetic point of view, the use of biomass for providing low-temperature heat is not efficient. With an increasing decarbonisation of the space heating and hot water sector the availability of biomass for heating purposes becomes an increasingly crucial issue. The scenarios show that the restriction of biomass availability substantially drives the demand for other RES-H systems, in particular heat pumps but also solar thermal and district heating.
The most efficient short-term scenarios almost achieve the same values as the “efficient” long-term scenarios in the year 2020. The low-efficient short-term scenarios are quite far off from the efficient long-term scenarios. However, even the low-efficient 2020 scenarios (like the frozen policy scenario) are in a similar range as the “less-efficient” 2050 scenarios. This leads to some relevant conclusions:
12 It is possible to compensate lower efficiency of buildings with a higher share of RES-H. However, this puts pressure on the exploitation of renewable energy sources with corresponding social, ecological and economic consequences (see the discussion point regarding biomass potentials above).
The building stock has a high inertia and long lead-times. This leads to the conclusion that early action is required. On the other hand, it also means that lock-in effects have to be avoided. If they are not compatible with long-term targets early actions might counteract long-term ambitious targets. So, it might be reasonable to favour high quality renovations in the next years instead of aiming at increasing the renovation rate (while accepting low renovation standards). At least, all renovation activities should be designed in a way not to hinder later deep renovation activities.
Thus, in the design of short-term policies the focus should not necessarily be put on achieving high energy savings in the short-term. Rather, the required steps for medium and long-term high energy savings standards should be put forward. This may include high standards in building codes and energy efficiency of equipment, high efforts in increasing the quality by training, qualification, education and technology development. In general, a stronger focus should be put on high quality and deep renovation activities than on a high rate of renovation without high quality potentially leading to lock-in effects.
All long-term scenarios achieve a high RES-H share already in the short-term. This is due to the implemented policy settings (RES-H use obligation). Other policy sets could be investigated in further analyses.
Open questions:
The analysis in this paper opens up a long list of important additional questions, which should be addressed in further research, e.g. the following: Due to the increasing role of district heating, at least in some scenarios, the supply mix of district heating is a relevant issue for the overall assessment of the scenarios. This has to be investigated in further analyses. The same holds true for the mix of electricity generation. It is reasonable to assume that a high level of decarbonisation may be achieved in Germany. However, the marginal additional consumption of electricity, in particular during winter times, might nevertheless be covered by fossil peak load power plants. This should be taken into account in a comprehensive assessment. In particular this leads to the question of the potential of RES-E generation. An in-depth coupled investigation of heating and electricity sector would therefore be relevant to answer these questions. In the further progress of the project “heating and cooling strategy 2050”, some of these questions will be addressed. Some aspects of technological learning and potential new technologies could affect the results of this paper. In particular thermal storage technologies could increase the potential of solar thermal and of combined heat pump – solar thermal systems.
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