Great Depression
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Public Debt, High Inflation and Economic Depression: a Survival Analysis Approach Minjie Guo
CORE Metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk Provided by Scholar Commons - Institutional Repository of the University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Scholar Commons Theses and Dissertations Spring 2019 Public Debt, High Inflation and Economic Depression: A Survival Analysis Approach Minjie Guo Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarcommons.sc.edu/etd Part of the Economics Commons Recommended Citation Guo, M.(2019). Public Debt, High Inflation and Economic Depression: A Survival Analysis Approach. (Doctoral dissertation). Retrieved from https://scholarcommons.sc.edu/etd/5279 This Open Access Dissertation is brought to you by Scholar Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Scholar Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Public Debt, High Inflation and Economic Depression: A Survival Analysis Approach by Minjie Guo Bachelor of Arts Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, 2007 Master of Arts University of Texas at Arlington, 2011 Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Economics Darla Moore School of Business University of South Carolina 2019 Accepted by: John McDermott, Major Professor Janice Bass, Committee Member William Hauk, Committee Member Warren Weber, Committee Member Cheryl L. Addy, Vice Provost and Dean of the Graduate School c Copyright by Minjie Guo, 2019 All Rights Reserved. ii Dedication To my parents and grandparents. iii Acknowledgments I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Dr. John McDermott for his support during my Ph.D study. His guidance and encouragement during the dissertation process were invaluable. -
Deflation: a Business Perspective
Deflation: a business perspective Prepared by the Corporate Economists Advisory Group Introduction Early in 2003, ICC's Corporate Economists Advisory Group discussed the risk of deflation in some of the world's major economies, and possible consequences for business. The fear was that historically low levels of inflation and faltering economic growth could lead to deflation - a persistent decline in the general level of prices - which in turn could trigger economic depression, with widespread company and bank failures, a collapse in world trade, mass unemployment and years of shrinking economic activity. While the risk of deflation is now remote in most countries - given the increasingly unambiguous signs of global economic recovery - its potential costs are very high and would directly affect companies. This issues paper was developed to help companies better understand the phenomenon of deflation, and to give them practical guidance on possible measures to take if and when the threat of deflation turns into reality on a future occasion. What is deflation? Deflation is defined as a sustained fall in an aggregate measure of prices (such as the consumer price index). By this definition, changes in prices in one economic sector or falling prices over short periods (e.g., one or two quarters) do not qualify as deflation. Dec lining prices can be driven by an increase in supply due to technological innovation and rapid productivity gains. These supply-induced shocks are usually not problematic and can even be accompanied by robust growth, as experienced by China. A fall in prices led by a drop in demand - due to a severe economic cycle, tight economic policies or a demand-side shock - or by persistent excess capacity can be much more harmful, and is more likely to lead to persistent deflation. -
Job Creation Programs of the Great Depression: the WPA and the CCC Name Redacted Specialist in Labor Economics
Job Creation Programs of the Great Depression: The WPA and the CCC name redacted Specialist in Labor Economics January 14, 2010 Congressional Research Service 7-.... www.crs.gov R41017 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Job Creation Programs of the Great Depression: the WPA and the CCC ith the exception of the Great Depression, the recession that began in December 2007 is the nation’s most severe according to various labor market indicators. The W 7.1 million jobs cut from employer payrolls between December 2007 and September 2009, when it is thought the latest recession might have ended, is more than has been recorded for any postwar recession. Job loss was greater in a relative sense during the latest recession as well, recording a 5.1% decrease over the period.1 In addition, long-term unemployment (defined as the proportion of workers without jobs for longer than 26 weeks) was higher in September 2009—at 36%—than at any time since 1948.2 As a result, momentum has been building among some members of the public policy community to augment the job creation and worker assistance measures included in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (P.L. 111-5). In an effort to accelerate improvement in the unemployment rate and job growth during the recovery period from the latest recession,3 some policymakers recently have turned their attention to programs that temporarily created jobs for workers unemployed during the nation’s worst economic downturn—the Great Depression—with which the latest recession has been compared.4 This report first describes the social policy environment in which the 1930s job creation programs were developed and examines the reasons for their shortcomings then and as models for current- day countercyclical employment measures. -
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee April 27–28, 2021
_____________________________________________________________________________________________Page 1 Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee April 27–28, 2021 A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee Ann E. Misback, Secretary, Office of the Secretary, and the Board of Governors was held by videoconfer- Board of Governors ence on Tuesday, April 27, 2021, at 9:30 a.m. and con- tinued on Wednesday, April 28, 2021, at 9:00 a.m.1 Matthew J. Eichner,2 Director, Division of Reserve Bank Operations and Payment Systems, Board of PRESENT: Governors; Michael S. Gibson, Director, Division Jerome H. Powell, Chair of Supervision and Regulation, Board of John C. Williams, Vice Chair Governors; Andreas Lehnert, Director, Division of Thomas I. Barkin Financial Stability, Board of Governors Raphael W. Bostic Michelle W. Bowman Sally Davies, Deputy Director, Division of Lael Brainard International Finance, Board of Governors Richard H. Clarida Mary C. Daly Jon Faust, Senior Special Adviser to the Chair, Division Charles L. Evans of Board Members, Board of Governors Randal K. Quarles Christopher J. Waller Joshua Gallin, Special Adviser to the Chair, Division of Board Members, Board of Governors James Bullard, Esther L. George, Naureen Hassan, Loretta J. Mester, and Eric Rosengren, Alternate William F. Bassett, Antulio N. Bomfim, Wendy E. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee Dunn, Burcu Duygan-Bump, Jane E. Ihrig, Kurt F. Lewis, and Chiara Scotti, Special Advisers to the Patrick Harker, Robert S. Kaplan, and Neel Kashkari, Board, Division of Board Members, Board of Presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of Governors Philadelphia, Dallas, and Minneapolis, respectively Carol C. Bertaut, Senior Associate Director, Division James A. -
The New Frontier: a History of Economic Crisis and Recovery from 1918 to COVID-19
CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICE The New Frontier: A History of Economic Crisis and Recovery from 1918 to COVID-19 June 2020 Months on from the initial outbreak, the world remains in the grip of the novel coronavirus AUTHORED BY pandemic. From shuttered storefronts to school closures and government-enforced shutdowns, the impact on daily life worldwide has been extreme, and the global economy Ehiwario Efeyini is still operating well below capacity. The scale of the crisis has been unparalleled in living Director and Senior Market memory. But a look at the past 100 years shows several periods of societal, economic, Strategy Analyst geopolitical and financial crisis that would eventually give way to new patterns of activity, innovation, policy support and cooperation that were more constructive for households, companies and investors. The early 20th century included a world war and a global flu pandemic. The 1930s saw an economic depression and military conflict on an even larger scale. The 1970s was a period of economic stagnation and high inflation. And the first decade of the new millennium brought the collapse of a stock market bubble, the rise of global terrorism and a financial crash. Crucially, each of these historical crisis periods was ultimately succeeded by an economic revival, a more favorable investment environment and sustained price gains for equity markets (Exhibit 1). Exhibit 1: Equity Markets and Historical Periods of Crisis and Recovery1 23 Dow Jones Industrial Index 9/11 2001 2008–2009 Level (log scale) Crisis Periods Recovery Periods attacks Global COVID-19 Financial Crisis 100000 pandemic 2000 1989 Dot-com peak 1974–1981 Fall of Double-digit Berlin Wall 10000 U.S. -
Chapter 24 the Great Depression
Chapter 24 The Great Depression 1929-1933 Section 1: Prosperity Shattered • Recount why financial experts issued warnings about business practices during the 1920s. • Describe why the stock market crashed in 1929. • Understand how the banking crisis and subsequent business failures signaled the beginning of the Great Depression. • Analyze the main causes of the Great Depression. Objective 1: Recount why financial experts issued warnings about business practices during the 1920s. • Identify the warnings that financial experts issued during the 1920s: • 1 Agricultural crisis • 2 Sick industry • 3 Consumers buying on credit • 4 Stock speculation • 5 Deion is # 1 Objective 1: Recount why financial experts issued warnings about business practices during the 1920s. • Why did the public ignore these warnings: • 1 Economy was booming • 2 People believed it would continue to grow Objective 2: Describe why the stock market crashed in 1929. Factors That Caused the Stock Market Crash 1. Rising interest rates 2. Investors sell stocks 3. Stock prices plunge 4. Heavy sells continue The Crash Objective 3: Understand how the banking crisis and subsequent business failures signaled the beginning of the Great Depression. Depositor withdrawal Banking Crisis Default on loans The Banking Crisis Margin calls and Subsequent Business Failures Unable to obtain resources Business Failures Lay-offs and closings Objective 4: Analyze the main causes of the Great Depression. • Main causes of the Great Depression and how it contributed to the depression: • Global economic crises, the U.S didn’t have foreign consumers. • The income gap deprived businesses of national consumers • The consumers debt led to economic chaos Section 2: Hard Times • Describe how unemployment during the Great Depression affected the lives of American workers. -
Measuring the Great Depression
Lesson 1 | Measuring the Great Depression Lesson Description In this lesson, students learn about data used to measure an economy’s health—inflation/deflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), output measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and unemployment measured by the unemployment rate. Students analyze graphs of these data, which provide snapshots of the economy during the Great Depression. These graphs help students develop an understanding of the condition of the economy, which is critical to understanding the Great Depression. Concepts Consumer Price Index Deflation Depression Inflation Nominal Gross Domestic Product Real Gross Domestic Product Unemployment rate Objectives Students will: n Define inflation and deflation, and explain the economic effects of each. n Define Consumer Price Index (CPI). n Define Gross Domestic Product (GDP). n Explain the difference between Nominal Gross Domestic Product and Real Gross Domestic Product. n Interpret and analyze graphs and charts that depict economic data during the Great Depression. Content Standards National Standards for History Era 8, Grades 9-12: n Standard 1: The causes of the Great Depression and how it affected American society. n Standard 1A: The causes of the crash of 1929 and the Great Depression. National Standards in Economics n Standard 18: A nation’s overall levels of income, employment and prices are determined by the interaction of spending and production decisions made by all households, firms, government agencies and others in the economy. • Benchmark 1, Grade 8: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a basic measure of a nation’s economic output and income. It is the total market value, measured in dollars, of all final goods and services produced in the economy in a year. -
The Effects on the Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply During the Great Economic Depression
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by UGD Academic Repository The Effects on the Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply during the Great Economic Depression ISSN 1857-9973 338.124.4:[338.23:336.74(100) Stevan Gaber 1, Vasilka Gaber-Naumoska 2, Aleksandar Naumoski3 1Goce Delcev University, Faculty of Economics, Krste Misirkov St., 10-A, Stip, Republic of Macedonia, e-mail: [email protected] 2Public Revenue Office, Bul. Kuzman Josifovski-Pitu No.1, Skopje 1000, Republic of Macedonia, e-mail: [email protected]; 3 Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics, Bul. Goce Delcev 9V, Skopje 1000, Republic of Macedonia, e-mail: [email protected] Abstract The Great Depression of 1929 created significant consequences for the US economy and world economy that are detected through serious changes in output and prices. It contributed to put greater emphasis on aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Many economists agreed that in addition to monetary factors major impact on the crisis had also non-monetary factors. Numerous studies have indicated that even the gold standard played an important role in reducing output and the price level. This paper attempts to highlight key segments, such as the wrong monetary policy, the gold standard, neglected banking problems, political pressure aimed at relaxing the monetary policy as areas that have made mistakes when looking a way out of the crisis. The critics of such thesis believed that the tighter monetary policy was not strong enough to cause so far-reaching consequences and expressed serious doubts that the reduced money supply is the real cause of the collapse of the national product and price levels. -
Inflation Expectations and the Recovery from the Great Depression in Germany
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Daniel, Volker; ter Steege, Lucas Working Paper Inflation Expectations and the Recovery from the Great Depression in Germany Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", No. 6 Provided in Cooperation with: German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt-Universität Berlin Suggested Citation: Daniel, Volker; ter Steege, Lucas (2018) : Inflation Expectations and the Recovery from the Great Depression in Germany, Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", No. 6, Humboldt University Berlin, Berlin, http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/19198 This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/223187 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. -
The American Middle Class, Income Inequality, and the Strength of Our Economy New Evidence in Economics
The American Middle Class, Income Inequality, and the Strength of Our Economy New Evidence in Economics Heather Boushey and Adam S. Hersh May 2012 WWW.AMERICANPROGRESS.ORG The American Middle Class, Income Inequality, and the Strength of Our Economy New Evidence in Economics Heather Boushey and Adam S. Hersh May 2012 Contents 1 Introduction and summary 9 The relationship between a strong middle class, the development of human capital, a well-educated citizenry, and economic growth 23 A strong middle class provides a strong and stable source of demand 33 The middle class incubates entrepreneurs 39 A strong middle class supports inclusive political and economic institutions, which underpin growth 44 Conclusion 46 About the authors 47 Acknowledgements 48 Endnotes Introduction and summary To say that the middle class is important to our economy may seem noncontro- versial to most Americans. After all, most of us self-identify as middle class, and members of the middle class observe every day how their work contributes to the economy, hear weekly how their spending is a leading indicator for economic prognosticators, and see every month how jobs numbers, which primarily reflect middle-class jobs, are taken as the key measure of how the economy is faring. And as growing income inequality has risen in the nation’s consciousness, the plight of the middle class has become a common topic in the press and policy circles. For most economists, however, the concepts of “middle class” or even inequal- ity have not had a prominent place in our thinking about how an economy grows. This, however, is beginning to change. -
Implications of the Digital Transformation for the Business Sector
IMPLICATIONS OF THE DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION FOR THE BUSINESS SECTOR Conference summary London, United Kingdom 1 8-9 November 2018 © OECD 20 The ongoing digital transformation holds the promise of improving productivity performance by enabling innovation and reducing the costs of a range of business processes. But at the same time our economies have experienced a slowdown in productivity growth, sparking a lively debate about the potential for digital technologies to boost productivity. Today, as in the 1980s, when Nobel prize winner Robert Solow famously quipped: "we see computers everywhere but in the productivity statistics" there is again a paradox of rapid technological change and slow productivity growth. Jointly organised by the OECD and the United Kingdom Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), this conference discussed factors that could explain such a puzzle and explored the role of policies in helping our economies realise the productivity benefit from this transformation. The following is an informal summary of discussions, provided as an aide memoire for participants and stakeholders. Opening session Summary The digital transformation is having a wide-ranging impact on the business environment, creating both opportunities and challenges. Inter-related trends such as e-commerce, big data, machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI), and the Internet of Things (IoT) could lead to large productivity gains for the economy. However, disruption to existing business and social models, as well as established markets, will disrupt the lives of millions of citizens. To make the best of these changes it is necessary to plan ahead, so that the right policies and institutions are in place as soon as possible. -
Small Business Growth and State Minimum Wages
a report from: Policy Matters Ohio Good for Business: Small business Growth and state minimum wages report authors: John Burton Amy Hanauer May 2006 Good for Business: Small business Growth and state minimum wages Executive Summary For 68 years, the minimum wage has been an important part of an economy that works for all Americans. Recently, the federal government has let the minimum wage deteriorate in real value to its lowest point in more than 50 years. In response, twenty states and the District of Columbia have raised their minimum wages above the federal level, up from three in 1996. A grassroots coalition in Ohio is seeking to put an initiative on the November 2006 ballot to raise Ohio’s minimum wage to $6.85 an hour. This study compares performance of small businesses (establishments under 500 employees) in the 39 states that accepted the federal minimum wage before 2003 to the twelve states (including the District of Columbia) that had minimums above the federal level in January, 2003. Nine new states have joined the high-wage group since. The study found that between 1997 (when more states began having higher minimums) and 2003: ♦ Employment in small businesses grew more (9.4 percent) in states with higher minimum wages than federal minimum wage states (6.6 percent) or Ohio. ♦ Inflation-adjusted small business payroll growth was stronger in high minimum wage states (19.0 percent) than in federal minimum wage states (13.6 percent) or Ohio. More data became available in 1998, allowing further analysis. Between 1998 and 2003: ♦ The number of small business establishments grew more in higher minimum wage states (5.5 percent) than in federal minimum wage states (4.2 percent) or Ohio.