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HDFC in Equity 03Feb21 CU India Equity Research Non Banks February 15, 2021 PIRAMAL ENTERPRISES POST-CONFERENCE NOTES KEY DATA Betting big on consumer finance Rating NOT RATED Sector relative NA Price (INR) 1,844 12 month price target (INR) NA We hosted Piramal Enterprises’ (PEL) management at Edelweiss India Market cap (INR bn/USD bn) 415.7/5.2 e-Conference 2021—The New Order. Highlights: i) Focus on increasing Free float/Foreign ownership (%) 53.5/28.8 granularity and diversification by improving share of retail loans. ii) Acquisition of DHFL to jumpstart retail business with addition of 250 plus branches and 3,000 employees. iii) Aim to reduce concentration amongst borrowers–top 10 exposure is down 20% from peak level. PEL launched a multi-product retail lending platform with a focus on digitisation; disbursements started in November, 2020. With this, along with strategic partnerships with fintechs/large players, it aims to tap secured and unsecured lending in smaller cities and towns. PEL is ‘NOT RATED’. Key takeaways FINANCIALS (INR mn) Acquisition of DHFL: The main idea behind the acquisition of DHFL is to jumpstart Year to M arch F Y17A F Y18A F Y19A F Y20A the retail business as the company transitions from a largely wholesale-led model Revenue 85,040 1,06,310 1,18,830 1,30,680 to a more diversified retail play. By acquiring the assets of DHFL, loan mix will be PPoP 35,060 51,600 66,190 62,670 50:50 between wholesale and retail. Cross-sell opportunity also exists to the Adjusted profit 12,520 51,210 14,670 240 Diluted EPS (INR) 61.4 250.8 70.2 1.1 customer base of DHFL. Leverage will rise from 2x to 3x for the financial services EPS growth (%) 38.4 308.4 -72.0 -98.5 business. On-ground strength of close to 3,000 for DHFL will help in growth of RoAE (%) 9.0 9.0 9.0 10.0 retail lending portfolio. Branch presence will also get a boost as current strength P/E (x) 25.3 6.2 22.1 1,450.5 of 40 odd touchpoints will increase to 300. This would have otherwise taken 5-7 P/BV (x) 2.1 1.4 1.4 1.2 years. RBI and NCLT approval are pending for this transaction. Dividend payout (%) 29.0 9.0 35.0 1,314.0 Retail lending: Constant endeavour to improve granularity and diversification of loan book with launch of a multi-product retail lending platform last year. Disbursements PRICE PERFORMANCE commenced around Diwali. Product expansion will continue as PEL aims to enter segments where banks are not actively present. Competitive intensity is low in these segments as NBFCs have vacated space over the past few years. Wholesale lending: Plans to maintain wholesale assets at current level as fresh growth will mostly be through the AIF route. 80% of wholesale book is in real estate, concentrated largely in 6-7 main cities. Average tenure of this book is 3-4 years. Outlook and valuations: Building a retail franchise; ‘NOT RATED’ PEL aims to demerger the business into two main activities of financial services and pharma. In the past 18 months, a number of steps like sale of non-core businesses and investment in STFC, fund raise in pharma business, preferential allotment and rights issue in parent entity have been taken to streamline the business. While there is no specific timeline for the same, it should happen in the medium term (<5 years). Incrementally, the focus of the company has shifted to building a retail franchise with high granularity across the loan book. It has launched a multi-product platform and plans to expand the same. Acquisition of DHFL will jumpstart the retail business with a headcount of 3,000 and branch count of close to 260. PEL is ‘NOT RATED’. Santanu Chakrabarti Prakhar Agarwal Vinayak Agarwal +91 (22) 4342 8680 +91 (22) 6620 3076 +91 (22) 6620 3040 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited Piramal Enterprises Company Description Piramal Group is a global business conglomerate with interests in Pharma, Financial Services, Information Management, Glass Packaging and Real Estate. Piramal Enterprises generated INR150bn of capital from the sale of its domestic formulations business to Abbott (2010) and INR89bn from its stake in Vodafone India (2014). It has been using this capital to invest heavily in its financial services businesses: a) it picked up stakes in the Shriram group, both in the operating entities (Shriram Transport Finance and Shriram City Union Finance) as well as the holding company, Shriram Capital; and b) it invested in building an organic portfolio of assets, primarily geared to the real estate segment. Key Highlights Piramal’s financial services business has evolved over the last 10 years: it has moved from being a pure early-stage/mezzanine financier in 2006 to a full-service lender with presence across the real-estate life-cycle. The company has been continuously de-risking its book by diversifying away from the high yield high risk real estate business with loan book growth >45% YoY in each of last 15 quarters. The loan book is well diversified with presence in segments like construction finance (40%), structured debt (19%), corporate lending (18%), housing finance (7%) among others. Key Risks Prolonged slowdown in the real estate business may impact the business growth momentum Any unrelated diversification into high capital intensive areas. 2 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited Piramal Enterprises DISCLAIMER Edelweiss Securities Limited (“ESL” or “Research Entity”) is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”) and is licensed to carry on the business of broking, depository services and related activities. The business of ESL and its Associates (list available on www.edelweissfin.com) are organized around five broad business groups – Credit including Housing and SME Finance, Commodities, Financial Markets, Asset Management and Life Insurance. 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