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Insen GOP Primary V23, N35 Thursday, May 3, 2018 INSen GOP primary: Anything can happen GOP Senate Huge pool of undecideds, candidates Braun’s inability to close Todd Rokita, Luke Messer the deal creates and Mike Braun talk historic volatility prior to Monday’s final By BRIAN A. HOWEY debate. Rokita COLUMBUS – In a normal campaign, and Messer a trio of U.S. Senate candidates would spend say the unde- the final week prior to the primary scrapping cideds lead for that 2-5% sliver of remaining undecided their internal voters. But Indiana’s 2018 Republican U.S. polling. Senate primary race is anything but normal. Mike Braun, Luke Messer and Todd Rokita head into these final days courting an esti- mated and unprec- edented bulge of more than 30% just trying to get this over the finish line.” undecided voters. Rokita told In the nearly quarter century Howey Politics Indi- Howey Politics Indiana prior to the ana has been publishing, we’ve never seen a race this high final debate Monday night at WFYI-TV that the number of up the food chain with such a massive number of voters undecideds was in the 40% range. Messer said after the debate, “The leader of this race may be the undecideds. Continued on page 3 We’ve got the best grassroots campaign by a lot. We’re Hall not taking chances By JACK COLWELL SOUTH BEND – Mel Hall, front-runner for the Democratic congressional nomination in Indiana’s 2nd District, is taking no chances. He plans to continue an all-out campaign effort, including television appeals hitting “A great friend of this president, the entire district, right up until the May 8 primary election. a tireless champion of strong Smart. The former CEO of Press borders and the rule of law, Ganey, South Bend-based collec- Sheriff Joe Arpaio, I’m honored tor of data on patient satisfac- tion for hospitals nationally, has to have you here.” five opponents for the nomina- - Vice President Mike Pence tion. Two wage determined campaigns. in Arizona on Tuesday. Although Hall and his campaign strategists exude Arpaio was convicted of a confidence of winning, they want felony and pardoned. Page 2 to take no chances that either Pat Hall, if nominated, ought to Hackett or Yatish Joshi, chief rivals for thank Hackett and Joshi. Without the nomination, could slip in front of serious opposition, Hall wouldn’t be the front-runner. able to test his organization and is- In old-school political sues in battle. Nor would he have all theory, however, Hall would be viewed the name recognition from debates as making a costly mistake. Old- and news accounts about the primary school traditionalists would question race. Money that Hall is spending on Howey Politics Indiana why Hall, if he really is a confident mailings and TV, even on cable TV out front-runner, is “wasting” so much of Chicago and Indianapolis to reach WWWHowey Media, LLC money on the primary election. Why, edges of the district, is an investment 405 Massachusetts Ave., when the race that counts is in the for the fall campaign. Suite 300 Indianapolis, IN fall against Rep. Jackie Walorski, the All-out campaigning distric- 46204 Republican incumbent? After all, www.howeypolitics.com she has over a million dollars on hand already and will get a whole lot more. Brian A. Howey, Publisher Max Harris, Hall’s cam- Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington paign manager, explains that Cameron Carter, Editor the extensive television buys Joel Weyrauch, Editor were made weeks ago to coun- ter Walorski as well as to fend Mary Lou Howey, Editor off primary challengers. When Mark Curry, Daily Wire, photo Walorski began sending out ap- Jack E. Howey, Editor peals for support that cited need Emeritus to counter successful fundrais- ing by “liberal” Mel Hall, Harris and Hall’s campaign consultant, Subscriptions Mike Schmuhl, knew it was time HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 to define Hall as he wants to be HPI Weekly, $350 defined, not as Walorski would HPI Mobile, $5.95 monthly define him as some kind of wild- eyed liberal. Ray Volpe, Account Manager Smart. 317.602.3620 While the old-school email: [email protected] view was to save up funding for a big twide is smart for another reason. push in mid-October, many elections Hall needs to win by more than just now are already decided by then. a smidgen. He needs momentum. Contact HPI If an opponent hammers away with He needs to convince the Democratic [email protected] messages sticking high negative rat- Congressional Campaign Committee to Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 ings on a candidate – and the candi- target the district for national help. Washington: 202.256.5822 date delays an effective response – In 2012, Brendan Mullen was that candidate is likely to lose. If Hall the front-runner for the Democratic Business Office: 317.602.3620 held back with TV ads defining himself congressional nomination, regarded in a positive way, he could have saved as much farther in front than Hall is © 2018, Howey Politics money now. But he would have lost now. He saved money for the fall race Indiana. All rights reserved. the opportunity to enhance name against Walorski. Didn’t “waste” it on Photocopying, Internet forward- recognition and a positive image for primary campaign spending. the fall. He also has firmly established The alphabet nearly beat ing, faxing or reproducing in opposition to Affordable Care Act cuts him. An opponent named Dan Morri- any form, whole or part, is a and loss of coverage. That could be son, though given no chance, defeat- violation of federal law without the No. 1 issue this fall. ed Mullen in nine of the 10 counties permission from the publisher. Old-school politicians resented of the district that May. Mullen slipped tough-campaigning primary election through to the nomination by winning opponents “forcing” the front-runner in St. Joseph County. Voters in most to “waste” money. Most candidates of the district didn’t know a Morrison want to run unopposed in the primary. from a Mullen. But Morrison, with a Page 3 nice-sounding name, was listed first. Mullen became an an impressive percentage of the total vote. Hackett and excellent candidate, coming close to defeating Walorski Joshi? Either would have momentum with an upset win of that fall. But he started with no momentum, didn’t get any margin. v help needed at the end from the DCCC and never quite caught up. Colwell has covered Indiana politics over five de- Hall wants to win most of the counties and get cades for the South Bend Tribune. Messer’s final lunge via TV is to attacks Rokita INSen, from page 1 as having run one of the most dishonest campaigns in who have yet to make a decision. modern times, then vows to emphatically support Presi- It comes as a new mid-term report by Morning dent Trump, who the Washington Post has documented Consult released this morning puts President Trump’s as having uttered more than 3,000 lies, falsehoods and approval with Indiana Republicans at 69% while indepen- misrepresentations while in office. On Wednesday, Messer dents rate him at -14 and Democrats at -74. Democrats “formally” nominated President Trump for a Nobel Peace lead the U.S. generic ballot 40-35%, while in Indiana it is Prize even though there’s been no big, beautiful deal on 39% Republican and 34% Democrat. Sen. Joe Donnelly’s the Korean peninsula, only positioning. approval/disapproval is 41/34%. In Braun’s final TV pitch, the Jasper businessman Conventional wisdom would lead one to believe walks his company’s floors and says into the camera, “Poli- this is Braun’s race to lose since he has loaned at least tics shouldn’t be a career. We need folks with real world $5.5 million, spent at least $6 million and aired by far the experience who get the job done and then come home. most gross rating points. But the “Six Million Dollar Man” Together we’ll build the wall, defend our values and end hasn’t yet closed the deal. So, we head into Tuesday’s bad trade deals for American workers. The only person I’ll election using the parlance of the pilot Rokita: This is owe anything to is you.” visual flight rules; the gauges are haywire. Who are all these undecided voters? One observer Media buys in final week suggested to HPI that many are original Trump support- Braun has purchased 1,147 gross rating points in ers who haven’t determined who displays and will deliver Indianapolis broadcast ($151,766), 984 points in Evansville the most fidelity to the president. Then there are voters ($29,878), 1,585 in Fort Wayne ($60,160), 1,349 in South from the Lugar/Daniels wing of the party that might incline Bend/Elkhart ($53,557) and 1,006 points in Terre Haute. toward Messer, but they have been underwhelmed by his So Braun has purchased more than 6,000 gross rating campaign and mien. points for the final week thus far. He’s spending another With so many unknowns and no credible indepen- $6,784 on Chicago cable and $11,393 on Indianapolis dent polling (HPI was unable to find a willing polling part- cable. He’s also purchased more than $30,000 in radio. ner/underwriter for this primary), this race becomes one Rokita has purchased 591 GPRs in Evansville at of the most mysterious and volatile of the television age close to $20,000, 1,700 points in Fort Wayne ($66,000), in Indiana politics.
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