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President Medvedev's First Year — Expectations and Progress

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President Medvedev's First Year — Expectations and Progress September 2009 THE EU-RUSSIA CENTRE REVIEW President Medvedev's First Year — Expectations and Progress Issue Ten CONTENTS Introduction 3 Fraser Cameron, EU-Russia Centre EU-RC New Survey: President Medvedev - A Force for Change or Continuity? 4 Maria Ordzhonikidze, Secretary General, EU-Russia Centre Assessing Dmitry Medvedev's Role 16 Marie Mendras, Professor, London School of Economics Between the Important and the Possible 20 Lev D. Gudkov, Director, Levada-Centre The EU as Seen in the Mirror of Russian TV 25 Elena Prokhorova, Analyst, and Eugenia Vesanto, Information Centre Director, EU-Russia Centre 2 Introduction Russia is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.’ This famous quote by Winston Churchill has retained its relevance over the years. The lack of transparency in the governance structures, the absence of any separation of powers, and the absence of a free media, make it difficult for outsiders – and for most Russians - to understand the power dynamics in today’s Russia. The recent survey by the EU-Russia Centre on ‘Expectations under Medvedev’ demonstrates that, at least among elite opinion in the EU and Russia, there is a consensus on some of the main problems, especially corruption and the lack of an independent judiciary. These points are summed up persuasively in the articles by Maria Ordzhonikidze and Marie Mendras. While agreeing that little has changed under Medvedev, Professor Mendras notes that there is some overlap in elite opinion in Russia and the EU and that there are grounds for modest optimism in EU-Russia relations. A further article by Lev Gudkov of the renowned Levada-Centre assesses the results of a second survey this summer, which asked Russians how they viewed their government. The most startling conclusion was that four-fifths of the population did not consider that the state and society shared the same priorities and that they had no influence on political decisions. Similarly, a large majority agreed that corruption was the most important problem in Russia but held that the situation was unlikely to change under the current rulers. There was a similar response concerning independent courts. Finally, Elena Prokhorova and Eugenia Vesanto, analyse how Russian television has reported on some of the major stories over the past twelve months. One of the most sensitive issues was how to portray the new President after Vladimir Putin had enjoyed a complete monopoly of uncritical coverage for several years. The distinguishing feature of Russia’s new president was that he was ‘more gentle and subdued’ than his predecessor. Other major issues covered by the authors include the Georgian conflict, the financial crisis and Russia-EU relations. President Medvedev’s visits to ‘friendly’ EU countries such as Germany and Spain were given extensive coverage while the EU as such was nearly always portrayed in a negative manner. This Review sheds further light on the huge gulf between rulers and ruled in Russia. It is an important contribution to the efforts to understand the complexities of Russian government and society. Churchill would have approved. Fraser Cameron Director, EU-Russia Centre 3 EU-RC New Survey: President Medvedev - A Force for Change or Continuity? by Maria Ordzhonikidze Secretary General, EU-Russia Centre SUMMARY OF THE RESULTS An expert survey undertaken by the EU-Russia Centre in May 2009 shows that both Russians and Europeans consider the fight against corruption in the police, army and civil service to be the most pressing issue that Dmitry Medvedev should address (89%) as he completes his first year as President. However, only nine per cent believe that anything will change in the future. Other priority areas for the Russian president’s attention included ensuring the independence of the judiciary (88%) with only 11% believing that there would be a change, and the need to diversify the Russian economy away from its base of oil and gas (85%). The introduction of jury trials in Russia was lower down the list of priorities, though 58% of respondents ranked it as important or very important. Specific findings included: • Ninety six per cent of Russians responding to the survey believed that the fight against corruption to be the most important area for change (only 14% believed that this is likely), while the corresponding figures for non Russians were 87% and 8%. • Over a quarter of respondents believed that there would be further improvement in relations between Russia and its European and North American counterparts. • There was a marked difference in the priority given to Russia’s relationship with its neighbours; this was cited as very important by three quarters (74%) of non Russians against only 56% of Russians. • A quarter (23%) believed that Russia will implement laws to protect foreign investments in its economy. • Two thirds (67%) believed that there should be improved facilitation of the registration and development of NGOs, though only 10% believed that this would happen. • Respondents were most pessimistic about the probability of freeing political prisoners (77% considered it unlikely or highly unlikely). 74% of non-Russian respondents versus 67% of Russians rated this measure as important/ very important. 4 • Russians tended to be more optimistic than Europeans in their assessment of those measures most likely to be implemented. The only area where they were less optimistic was the diversification of the Russian economy away from oil and gas: 12% of Russians considered this to be likely/very likely versus 14% of non-Russians. • According to the data collected by a survey undertaken by the Levada-Centre which posed the same questions to an all-Russian sample of respondents, the general Russian population places corruption in the police, army and civil service, and the need to diversify the economy at the top of a list of the most important problems facing Russia (95% and 91% accordingly). However, the general population is much more worried about the need to improve relations with Russia’s international partners – 87% rated this as important or highly important. • Levada-Centre survey respondents perceived that freeing political prisoners as the least important of 11 problems ranked – only 49% believed it to be important and they also believed it to be the problem that was least likely to be tackled. METHODOLOGY 237 people from 34 countries responded to 11 questions posted on the EU-Russia’s www.eu- russiacentre.org web-site from November 2008 to February 2009. The profile of respondents varied from MEPs and academics to NGOs, journalists, businessmen, ministry officials, civil servants, students and ordinary interested citizens. The respondents were invited to rate 11 measures according to their importance and their likelihood of being implemented during Dmitry Medvedev’s presidency. On average, respondents spent eight minutes answering the survey questions. Sample Profile 5 As well as visitors to EU-RC web-site, respondents included members of the EU-RC mailing database who received an invitation to participate. Responses were received from members of the European Parliament, journalists and NGOs following Russia, a third of the responses came from the academic and think-tank community, and the remainder from higher educated professionals with diplomatic, business or commercial background, as well as students. The majority of replies came from people aged between 25 and 54 years, with one in four aged 55+. 6 Respondents came from 34 countries, with the majority residents coming from the European Union and almost one fifth from Russia. Specific countries included: Albania, Andorra, Canada, Iceland, Malta, Netherlands, Yugoslavia, Cyprus, Ireland, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Romania, Austria, Greece, Hungary, Lithuania, Switzerland, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Italy and Finland. QUESTIONNAIRE Respondents were invited to rate each of the 11 scorecard problems in order of their importance to Russia and the likelihood that they will be tackled by President Medvedev while in he is power. The rating was from 1 to 5: with one being least important and very unlikely and 5 being most important and very likely. 7 ANALYSIS How Important vs. How Likely Respondents identified corruption in the police, army and civil service as the most acute problem in Russia, with 89% rating it first. This was closely followed by the need to ensure the independence of judiciary – 88%. Eighty five per cent cited the necessity to diversify the economy away from one based on oil and gas as highly important. The need for wider introduction of jury trials was rated as least important of the 11 listed in the scorecard, with only 58% seeing it as very important. In terms of likelihood of the above problems being tackled, respondents were most pessimistic about the probability of freeing political prisoners (77% considered it unlikely or highly unlikely and only 5% considered it likely or very likely). They were most optimistic for the prospects for Russia and the EU to work together on resisting the global economic crisis (37% considered it likely or very likely). Twenty eight per cent of respondents believed that relations between Russia and ‘the West’ (USA and Europe) were likely to improve. However, only 11% expected any improvement in relations between Russia and its neighbouring states such as Georgia and Ukraine. 8 The respondents had an option to list other problems that they considered important for President Medvedev to resolve. Internal issues raised by survey participants were: • Improve
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