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Resilient and Connected Landscapes for Terrestrial Conservation

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Resilient and Connected Landscapes for Terrestrial Conservation Resilient and , Connected Landscapes for Terrestrial Conservation Eastern Conservation Science Eastern Conservation Science Resilient Conservation Lands Strategies RESILIENT LANDS CONNECTED LANDSCAPES CONSERVATION STRATEGIES Mark G. Anderson, Analie Barnett, Melissa Clark, Arlene Olivero Sheldon, John Prince and Barbara Vickery. 2016. Resilient and Connected Landscapes for Terrestrial Conservation. (August 8, 2016 version) The Nature Conservancy, Eastern Conservation Science Eastern Regional Office 99 Bedford St, 5th Floor Boston, MA 02111 Please cite as: Anderson, M.G., Barnett, A., Clark, M., Prince, J., Olivero Sheldon, A. and Vickery B. 2016. Resilient and Connected Landscapes for Terrestrial Conservation. The Nature Conservancy, Eastern Conservation Science, Eastern Regional Office. Boston, MA. This project was supported by grants from the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation and from the U.S. Department of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service. About the Cover: 1 2 3 1. © Kent Mason. Sunrise as seen from The Nature Conservancy's Bear Rocks Preserve in West Virginia. High above Canaan Valley, in Dolly Sods, where a flat, windswept expanse of subalpine heath barrens opens up to the sky. Stunted red spruce, ancient bogs and forlorn boulders define this haunting landscape, where creatures typically found in more northern environs roam oblivious to their geologic isolation. 2. © Kent Mason. Westland area in Canaan Valley. Canaan Valley is an oval, bowl-like upland valley nestled among the higher ranges of the Allegheny Mountains in northeastern Tucker County, West Virginia. Canaan Valley supports the largest area of wetlands in all of the Central Appalachians, providing critical habitat for wildlife that is irreplaceable. 3. © Kent Mason. Wind farm turbines situated on a ridge top in the Appalachian mountains of West Virginia. Acknowledgements We wish to thank Andrew Bowman and Sacha Spector of the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation, and Andrew Milliken, Scott Schwenk, and Steve Fuller of the USFWS North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative for their advice, support, and patience as we worked through the complexities of this project. Andy Finton, Barbara Vickery, Dan Coker, David Patrick, Josh Royte, Judy Dunscomb, Nels Johnson, Sally Palmer, and Thomas Minney were critical in providing new and useful perspectives on how to think about landscape permeability. Thanks to Dave Theobald and Brad McCrae for many conversations on how to measure landscape permeability in an ecologically relevant way. We are grateful to the entire steering committee of this project who reviewed and discussed every aspect of the work, often providing critical insights into why test results did not look right: Adam Whelchel, Alex Wyss, Allison Vogt, Amy Keister, Bill Kittrell, Bob Allen, Charles Ferree, Chris Bruce, Colette Degarady, David Ray, Dirk Bryant, Donnelle Keech, Doria Gordon, Elizabeth Kalies, Eric Krueger, Eric Sorenson, Gwynn Crichton, Jeff Sole, Jessica Dyson, Jodie LaPoint, Jon Ambrose, Joshua Royte, Kathleen Freeman, Kevin Ruddock, Kim Lutz, Gary Knight, Kristina Serbesoff-King, Lauren Alleman, Elizabeth Thompson, Malcolm Hodges, Marci Bortman, Margaret Fields, Maria Whitehead, Mark Bryer, Mary Kate Brown, Megan N. Sutton, Michele DePhilip, Michelle Canick, Nancy Sferra, Paul Freeman, Peter Steckler, Philip B. Huffman, Rebecca Benner, Rebecca Shirer, Richard Hilsenbeck, Ron Sutherland, Rose Paul, Rua Mordecai, Sara J. Gottlieb, and Scott Bearer. Table of Contents CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ............................................................ 1 Objective and Background .......................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 2: SITE RESILIENCE ............................................................ 3 Geophysical Settings ................................................................................................... 3 Characteristics that Impart Resilience ........................................................................ 3 CHAPTER 3: LANDSCAPE PERMEABILITY Maintaining a landscape that facilitates range shifts for terrestrial species ......................... 6 Objective and Background .......................................................................................... 6 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 6 Climate Change and Range Shifts ............................................................................... 7 Range Shifts ........................................................................................................... 7 Dispersal and Dispersal Pressure ....................................................................... 8 Landscape Permeability: the influence of the medium through which the organism is dispersing ....................................................................................... 9 Establishment and Colonization ....................................................................... 11 The Evidence for Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change ........................... 12 Upslope Movement: ......................................................................................... 14 Northward Expansions: .................................................................................... 15 Riparian Climate Corridors: .............................................................................. 15 Microclimates and Rates of Change: ................................................................ 17 Conclusion: ...................................................................................................... 19 Habitat Fragmentation and Climate Change ....................................................... 20 Implications for Conservation ................................................................................... 20 Facilitating Dispersal ........................................................................................... 21 Facilitating Dispersal in Response to Climate Change ......................................... 21 Mapping Landscape Permeability ............................................................................. 23 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 23 Circuitscape Model .................................................................................................. 25 Anthropogenic Resistance Grid ................................................................................ 25 Improvements to the Land Cover Datasets ......................................................... 28 Mapping Regional Flow based on Anthropogenic Resistance .................................... 33 Regional Flow Results and Patterns .......................................................................... 36 Comparisons and Confirmation................................................................................. 40 Methods .................................................................................................................. 40 Results ..................................................................................................................... 43 Discussion ............................................................................................................... 43 Permeable Climate Pathways ................................................................................... 49 Upslope and Northward Model for Range Shifts ........................................................ 50 Final Integration of Upslope, Northward, and Anthropogenic .................................... 58 Riparian Climate Corridors ....................................................................................... 61 Introduction and Background .............................................................................. 61 Mapping Riparian Climate Corridors ................................................................... 63 Riparian Units ................................................................................................... 63 Riparian Unit Attributes ................................................................................... 64 Size:............................................................................................................ 64 Regional Flow: ........................................................................................... 64 Contrast: Local Connectedness / Human Modification: .......................... 65 Securement: .............................................................................................. 65 Resilience:. ................................................................................................ 65 Riparian Climate Corridor Query ...................................................................... 71 Local Microclimates ................................................................................................. 73 CHAPTER 4: BIODIVERSITY ............................................................. 74 Geology and Species .................................................................................................. 74 Rare Species and Natural Communities .................................................................... 74 Geophysical Settings ................................................................................................. 77 Secured Lands .........................................................................................................
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