Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society submission to the DFAT inquiry on Sustainable Development Goals
Introduction to AMOS The Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS) is an independent society representing the atmospheric and oceanographic sciences in Australia. The society provides expert advice on climate variability, weather forecasting and physical oceanography and regularly represents the views of its members to Government, institutes and the public. AMOS contributes to awareness raising by running public events including those on the science of changing climate, as well as connecting people with experts.
The Society feels that the Sustainable Development Goals (SGDs) align closely with the vision of the AMOS Society especially in the area of mitigating and adapting to climate change and increased disaster resilience (SDG 13). Our vision is: “To advance the scientific understanding of the atmosphere, oceans and climate system, and their socioeconomic and ecological impacts, and promote applications of this understanding for the benefit of all Australians.” In this submission we will largely discuss some of the impacts of climate change on Australia with Terms of Reference b., with any potential costs around the domestic implementation of the SDG to be considered within current and future costs already attributed to increasing trends in extreme events nationally.
Australia's increasing exposure to a changing climate has increased the vulnerability of Australian cities and communities to weather related extreme events. Any potential costs to Australia around the domestic implementation of the SDGs should take into account current and future costs to Government and the community due to the increasing trend in extreme events. Benefits around participating in a global response to the SDGs in mitigating and avoiding dangerous levels of climate change to reduce Australia's vulnerability to higher possible increases in extreme weather in the future would be of extreme benefit to Australia.
Australia’s exposure to a changing climate The weather and climate of Australia and is changing in response to increased carbon dioxide levels globally (IPCC 2013). The related increase in extreme events such as drought and extreme heat events both globally (e.g. IPCC 2012; Perkins et al. 2012) and nationally (BoM and CSIRO 2016) as a consequence of global warming highlights the need to better understand and allow for changes to risk in a rapidly changing climate.
The Australian Business Roundtable for Disaster Resilience and Safer Communities reported in 2016 that the total economic cost of natural disasters in Australia exceeded $9 billion in 2015, or about 0.6% of gross domestic product (DAE 2016). The total costs of disasters will rise to an average of $33 billion per year by 2050 unless steps are taken to increase resilience (DAE 2016). With sustainable development comes the need to respond to and understand not only the past and present day climate but to account for projected changes to the climate of Australia into the future. Discussed here are some of the challenges that climate change is placing on Australia.
Increase in the frequency of heatwaves Australia's temperature has been steadily increasing over the past century with the most warming seen since 1950 (BoM and CSIRO 2016). Four of Australia's five warmest years on record have occurred since 2013. The year 2013 was Australia's warmest year on record, over 1°C above the 1961 to 1990 average. The year 2013 was also a year of extremes across Australia, with records set for warmest day, week and month (BoM 2013) and a number of extreme heat waves during the year (BoM 2014a). The continued projected rise in Australian temperatures means that by 2050, the year 2013 will be a below average year under scenarios that limit warming over Australia to the 2°C levels as specified under the Paris accord (CCiA 2015).
With the increase in mean temperature over Australia, the frequency of extreme heat events is also increasing (BoM and CSIRO 2016). Heatwaves are historically the leading cause of fatalities from natural disasters in Australia (Coates 2014). Following the devastating extreme heatwave of February 2009 in which 374 people lost their lives in Victoria, the state of Victoria enacted a heatwave response plan (DoH 2011). A similar response was also seen in other states across Australia (e.g. SES, viewed 2018). During a subsequent severe heatwave across southeast Australia in January 2014 in which Victoria had its hottest four- day period on record, for both maximum and daily mean temperature (BoM 2014b), the response plan was credited with reducing the morbidity and mortality of the event with 167 excess deaths reported (DoH 2014).
The economic burden of heatwaves is large, in not only the demand placed on emergency and health services, but also through the decrease in labour productivity during the hottest periods (Kjellstrom and McMichael 2013), infrastructure stress and breakdown, and agricultural losses. The southeast of Australia, which includes many of our largest population centres, stands out as being at increased risk from many extreme weather events, including heat waves, drought and bushfires. Extreme heat can damage infrastructure such as electricity distribution and transport systems, causing flow-on effects.
It is virtually certain that further warming will continue to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events over Australia ( CCiA 2015; King et al. 2017) with attribution studies showing that warming is having an impact on recent extreme heat events over Australia and globally (e.g. Herring et al. 2016; Lewis et al. 2015). The number of days each year recording a maximum temperature greater than 40°C is projected to double (or more than double) by 2050 under the current business as usual emissions scenario (RCP8.5) (CCiA 2015). In the southwest of the continent the number of days greater than 40°C is projected to more than double (CCiA 2015).
Increasing fire danger The Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) is used to monitor fire weather conditions in Australia. The FFDI incorporates current conditions such as temperature, recent rainfall, wind speed and humidity. So any long-term changes to these conditions can also change affect trends in fire danger conditions.
Recent decades have since shown an increasing trend in extreme fire weather conditions and a longer fire season (Clarke et al 2013; Dowdy 2017). This lengthening of the fire season has implications for bushfire management practices with a longer fire season impacting on resources. The increasing trend in extreme fire weather conditions impacts on infrastructure in affected rural areas and emergency response and recovery management. As the century progresses, the annual number of days with FFDI greater than 50 (‘severe and above’) fire danger rating is projected to increase in southern and eastern Australia. Increases of about 25 per cent are expected under all emissions scenarios by 2030 when compared to the 1981–2010 period.
The cost of the 2009 Black Saturday bushfire event alone was estimated by the Royal Commission at more than $4 billion (Royal Commission, 2010). The Royal Commission also stated that “with populations at the rural–urban interface growing and the impact of climate change, the risks associated with bushfire are likely to increase.”
Less rainfall across southern Australia and more time spent in drought Recent decades have seen a decline in rainfall across southern parts of Australia with large parts of southern Australia receiving less rainfall over the critical growing season of April to October (BoM and CSIRO 2016). Rainfall across Australia is highly variable, largely in response to tropical drivers of variability such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, but climate change is seeing this variability overlaid on an underlying declining rainfall trend across southern Australia.
Rainfall has decreased across southwestern WA, with rainfall since 1970 during May to July around 19 per cent less than the long term average. Rainfall has further decreased across this period since 1996 (BoM and CSIRO 2016). In 1998 The Western Australian government initiated a research program to determine the causes and nature of this rainfall decline and to support informed decision making on climate variability and change in Western Australia (ioci.org.au). This research underpinned the construction of rainfall independent water resources. A similar research effort started in 2005 focussing on the rainfall decline in southeast Australia (http://www.seaci.org/). The more recent Victorian Climate Initiative (VicCI) building on these research to further inform decision making around climate variability, predictability and change with a goal to underpin improved assessment of the future risks to water supplies.
At a Federal level, the Millennium Drought brought about a number of reform processes centred around the management of water resources and assistance for agricultural producers. Australia’s policy around drought has progressively shifted to incorporate self- reliance and risk management as a component of qualifying for assistance (e.g. Botterill 2010 and Botterill and Hayes 2012). Under the most recent drought reform process the changing nature of drought under climate change scenarios was examined. It was found that drought would become more frequent in southern parts of Australia under climate change (Hennessey et al. 2008). Recent projections have shown that the time spent in drought across southern Australia is likely to increase and the frequency of severe drought is likely to increase across Australia (CCiA 2015)
Acting to reduce emissions from land clearing Australia’s carbon emissions are increasing, with the latest figures from the DEE (2018) showing a 0.8% increase over the last 12 months. When figures from land use, land use change and forestry are included annual emissions have increased by 1.1% compared with the previous year. Australia’s carbon emissions are now at their highest since any time in the previous decade (DEE 2018). While emissions from the electricity sector are decreasing, emissions from other sectors such as agriculture (driven by increased beef cattle population) and land use change are increasing. Land use change is the source of the largest increase in emissions after fugitive emissions (predominantly associated with LNG exports). Forests and grasslands act as carbon sinks, and in 2017 it is estimated that uptake from these sinks was 1.4Mt CO2 less than the previous year (DEE 2018).
The DEE 2018 report includes a Special topic: Monitoring and reporting of land clearing. The region where the greatest losses occur due to land clearing is in Queensland. The Department estimates that 436 thousand hectares of forest land was cleared across Australia in 2015-16, an increase of 12 per cent on 2014-15. Much of that area is in river catchments that feed onto the Great Barrier Reef, resulting in increased sediment onto the coral.
Other impacts from extensive land use change, including forest clearing, are the loss of biodiversity. More than a third of Queensland’s native plant species are found nowhere else on the planet. This forms part of Australia’s cultural and natural heritage.
The DEE 2018 report shows that there was a small increase in carbon stocks since the 2007-2010 period, reflecting the sharp decline in native forest harvesting, reduced levels of clearing of mature forests and a significant amount of regeneration of forest from natural seed sources. These gains have been erased with the reintroduction of extended land clearing, principally across northern Australia.
Warming of the surrounding oceans and sea level rise The world’s ocean temperatures have been steadily increasing at the surface and at depth, with most of the additional energy from global warming going into the oceans. Attribution studies have shown that the background global warming has led to a greater prevalence of marine heat waves which can impact on marine life in the affected areas. For example the unprecedented 251-day marine heatwave off Tasmania’s east coast in 2015-16 resulted in reduced productivity of salmon fisheries, high mortality of abalone and observations of out- of-range species such as snapper (Oliver et al. 2017). A 2011 marine heatwave had similarly devastating effects on abalone at the popular Ningaloo reef in Western Australia - the very first time this reef experienced mass bleaching and loss of coral (Moore et al. 2012).
Of concern in the Australian context is the impact of warmer ocean temperatures on coral reef systems. The 2011 marine heatwave in Western Australia caused the first-ever reported bleaching of Ningaloo reef (Moore et al. 2012). Bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef have occurred repeatedly since the late 1970s. In 2017 the Great Barrier Reef saw the first consecutive bleaching event, causing major stress to reef and allowing little time for recovery from the 2016 bleaching event. Deloitte Access Economics has calculated the economic, social and iconic value of the Great Barrier Reef at $56 billion (DAE 2016) with more than half of the asset value being tourism. The Great Barrier Reef generates 64,000 jobs in Australia and contributes $6.4 billion dollars to the national economy (DAE 2016).
As the oceans have been responding to the Earth’s energy imbalance for some time, sea levels will continue to rise. With more than 85% of Australia’s population living less than 50km from the coastline, scientists have provided a wealth of information about the risks and impacts from coastal events. A rise in mean sea level amplifies the effects of high tides and storm surges (BoM and CSIRO 2016). For example, at both Fremantle and Sydney, flooding events became three times more frequent during the 20th century as a result of sea-level rise (Church et al. 2006).
At different locations around Australia, a median sea-level rise of 11–14 cm relative to 1986– 2005 by 2030 is projected (CCiA 2015). Increases in mean sea level makes coastal flooding events more common, particularly during extreme events such as storm surges. With just 10 cm (0.1m) of sea level rise the risks of coastal flooding roughly treble (Hunter 2012). On a longer planning horizon sea level is projected to rise in some regions by as much as 1.0m, exposing more than $226 billion of infrastructure, property and other assets to flooding and erosion (DCC 2009, CCiA 2015).
To prepare for the sea-level rise that cannot be prevented it is also essential to lower the risks of coastal flooding. This requires a coordinated national planning framework integrated across federal, state and local governments with clear allocation of responsibilities. In the future, the likelihood of coastal flooding can be maintained at current levels despite sea-level rise by raising assets or their protective measures by a vertical distance (a so-called allowance), that accounts for sea-level rise projections and extremes (McInnes 2015).
Acting on climate Australia’s per capita greenhouse gas emissions are among the highest in the world and are the highest for any G20 country. Australia’s per capita greenhouse emissions in 2013 were
25 tons CO2 equivalent per person, higher than the US (19.9), Canada (20.9), New Zealand (16.6), United Kingdom (8.45), France (6.9) and China (8.49) (CAIT Climate Data Explorer, World Resources Institute). As consecutive IPCC reports have concluded, global greenhouse emissions must reduce to zero by around 2050 depending on the rate of decline (with an earlier deadline if the commencement of the decline is delayed) to avoid 2°C of warming. Given Australia’s high per capita emissions, we have a responsibility to reduce our emissions more quickly than other nations.
The range of climate change impacts discussed above are directly linked to global carbon (and other greenhouse gas) emissions. Economists such as Professor Ross Garnaut (Garnaut 2011) and Professor Nicholas Stern (Stern 2006) have demonstrated that the costs of climate change to the global economy outweigh the cost of action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and thereby reduce the impact of climate change. As discussed above, Australia is particularly prone to climate change impacts due to our semi-arid climate. It is therefore imperative that we set the most ambitious and stringent targets so that other countries will also do the same.
The most cost effective and efficient policy for reducing carbon emissions is a price on carbon. Other mechanisms that can be effective but are less direct are renewable energy targets, or emission intensity targets. We strongly recommend that Australia’s carbon emission responsibilities are realized through such policy mechanisms in all sectors of the economy, including electricity, transport, industry and agriculture.
Conclusion Responding to the challenge of climate change is an issue of both adaptation and mitigation; adapting to changes that have already occurred and future changes that are already locked in due to the delayed response time, and mitigating emissions so as to avoid the consequences of dangerous climate change. Climate change will continue to impact on changes in the mean and in changes to the extremes and future infrastructure and services will have to be adapted or designed to account for these changes.
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