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Inflation and Price Controls in a Flexprice-Fixprice Model

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Inflation and Price Controls in a Flexprice-Fixprice Model This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 6, number 5 Volume Author/Editor: NBER Volume Publisher: NBER Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/aesm77-5 Publication Date: December 1977 Chapter Title: Inflation and Price Controls in a Flexprice-Fixprice Model Chapter Author: Donald Schlagenhauf, Franklin R. Shupp Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c10540 Chapter pages in book: (p. 501 - 519) i/(n(:l22/ I:t on,iflli anti .octa1 .tit'asurenent. 155 INII.AIION jN1) PRI('1 (ONTROI.S IN\ }:il<RlClIIX ILL. MODI]. 13v DON F.Sc!lI.AuINIIAUI ANt)FRANKlIN It. Siitpp i1:'l ,r(zper (icr c/op a ample piirir'/ u/ i,iflatioit /or an etanom 2jaratttri:,sl hi 1tli lie', - priee ((liii /15 price output settor.',. !ntlian i,ro,'utaIe.sttiiii e Set Ideiiiaitd(II(it/U'!Itt KIlT. and ii Ic traminined il(rosc seet0rli,is trait Itnullan process rineiher aitit an injiationari e.vpeclation Jii'iotItesiv .custain.s the in/la firm even in the ahcenee a! all verilltiflhllng('.52122 demand. i/ic inflation generated hi this prott'I Ii suhjertt'd to a age and proc eonir,,IsPar- t/tutor attention vsi!iit'Pl to the 5(11(21 201'iti/it' iiptoirul control rule lot the nun/elnit! ii) i/it' qucs f/on a! al/inst/ic efloienrr. Iquit v and terminal titiTus are a/la (Oil %uii'rOl 1. INI RO1)U(i IoN This paper has two purposes.Firstitdevelops a simple analticaIlv tractable model of inflation for an ccononlv characterized h two output (flexprice and lixprice) markets and one input (labor) market. The model incorporates most of the major elements of' short run inflationtheory and demonstrates, at least in a stylized way. how inflation can hetransmitted and sustained. Second, the study imposes a set of temporary wageand price controls on the model. The impact of these controls is examined to identify the circumstances under which controls might. and also might not, be appropriate, and also to suggest how controlsmight be designed to satisfy certain allocation, equity. and termination criteria. 2. Tit E INn.1vr10N MOl)F i. Price and wage behavior is examined in a simple economychar- acterized by two output markets and a single labor (input) market.Prices in one output sector are determined primarily in auction-typemarkets. while prices in the other sector are largely administered. The first market- type is representative of agricultural and commoditymarkets in which prices are determined largely by excess demand considerations.The sec- ond market-type is typical of many manufacturing industries inwhich prices are largely determined by some mark up strategy.Gordon [3). Hicks [51 and Moroshinia [6] refer to the former as the /k'.vpricemarket and the latter as the /ixprice market. Okun [7] prefers tocall them the auction market and the customer market,respectively. tthe authors are particularly graietui to the referees of this journal tartheir t houghi- ful and very helpful conlnients. fhev would also like to acknocs edgelinaiicial support or Insesiors in this siudprovided by the Graduate School (An/aria State University) and Business Education (University of liii iois). I In this simple CCOAOO1Y the labormarket is mation equation in which specilied bya wage wage increases arcassumed to for- increase expectatioflS and toexcess demand respond toUrice considerations ket. Price increase expectatiOnsare assumed to he in thatmar. are related to past price increases forriedtdtptiI in bothoutput markets output prices and wagesinfluence costs, the both of the tIxprice sector postulatedmark up raises prices in thatsector, and these strategy feedback into increasedwage demands. increases intur changes in relative prices of Furthermore,the the two sectorsimply a shift resulting position of demand(even if one in thecorn. is held constant assumes that nominal or is determined aggregatedemand cxogenouslv). andthis too inflation process. In thisstudy aggregate feeds the demand andsupply tions are, in fact, assumedto he determined considera. model can be readily exogenously. adapted to allow However,the br theimpact of monetary policies. tIscaland/or A. The Flexprice(A uction) Market In this market it is assumed thatthe dominant movements arcoutput excess demand determinant ofprice to be essentially considerations. unrelated to Prices areassumed short-run changesin costs; cause in many ofthese commodity possibly be. relatively or auction markets, unimportant. labor costsare The demandfunction appropriate given by to the flexprice (auction) marketis (I) = where e = income elasticity of demand price elasticityof demand = cross price elasticity of demand The quantitysupplied is trolled by the assumed to be vagaries of the given exogenousl)and is con- other domestic weather andby the OPEC and international ministers and/or ply function is cartel of the form managers. Consequently, thesup- (2) I-Is VA? =,--IS Finally it is assumed thatprices respond (3> to excess demandas given by = where k= elasticity of = P.0(l price adjustment,and ± p= the trend flexprice whichinsures some long run price parityfor the Combining(I), (2), fiexprice sector. and (3)yields 502 V" DID (f kD e 1 A(s+I) t 4j (tLV4, Equation (4) can easily he rewritten as (5) PA , =kyp-t- k/p1 ±e Y where n ct= kiv, -kq + p and P4(:+I,is the percentage change in >, v,isthe percentage change in Y,, etc. It should be clear from (5) that inflation can he initiated either bya contraction in the quantity supplied in the flexprice market or by an increase in demand resulting from an increase in national income Y,. B.The Fixprice (Customer) Market The dominant market clearing mechanism in this sector is a quantity adjustment process. Accordingly, prices are essentially independent of short runexcess demand considerations and are instead largely cost de- termined as firms employ a mark up strategy. The three inputs employed are customer goods, auction goods and labor. The mark up relationship can be written in lagged form as (6) + I) =ij[(OPc + + + (I - )(Opc.r 1 - + I + (I -i)2(Op.,2 + 1//P4(g_2 + 1t_2) 4- where i', is the percentage change in unit labor costs, defined as theper- centage change in nominal wages, w,, minus the percentage change in long-run productivity, p',. After a Koyck transformation this yields (7) Pc(t+I=(I - + i9)p, + 1?1'p, +11t In this equationrepresents the response coefficient, with a larger iim- plying a more rapid pass through of costs. The coefficients 0,', and sum to one and represent the relative intensity of use of customer goods, auc- tion goods and labor in the production process. It should be evident from (7) that price increases in the fixprice market are notdirect/vapected by changes in short run aggregate demand. However these prices are indi- rectly influenced by aggregate demand through the corresponding tight labor market. C.TheLahor Market The labor market is assumed to be characterized by a combination of 'administered' pricing and excess (input) demand considerations. In 503 'I j particular it is assumed that employees liv 10 obtain a 'lair' moneywa increase hich covers both mv productivity increase and anCpCcte(l price increac. The actual increase is also intluenced hexcess deniatiti in the labor market This relitiionsh ip ;s tti yen by ii',i - P':.= P/I!: Ii + i(L, --1 7). wherepr1 = the percentage change in labor p10(1 uctivily = the unemployment rate. L'7 the natural unemplovnicnt rate, and = the expected percentage change in overall prices. The actual percentage change in overall prices isaveighted sum of the percentage change in customer and auction prices. That is, p,, = VP.: f (I - where p = the fraction of final output comprised ofauction goods. In addition we assume that expectionsare formed adaptivelv so that + (I p>1+> = -- )p, + (I 2> + ''i. Substituting (9) and (10) into (8) and usinga Kovck transformation yields (II) = ( I - ,')p., +z'p,-i-(I- ; .- where (1=ô( L', L7 )- ô (1 )( L, -.(17 D. The ('omp/ete Model The complete inflation model is thus specilied by equations(5), (7). and (II). To Illustrate the basic dynamics of the model, plausibleparam- eter values were appioxirnated from estimates reported in other studies. These parameter related estimates include: k=6, =I, = .7, .55. and p 'y = = .01 for equation (5): z= .3, 0 .2. = .1. and 5 = .7 for equation (7) and.' = .1, .55 and = .3 for equation (II). As a check the three reduced form equations, (5), (7) and (Ii)were also estimated directly, and these estimates correspond surprisingly wellto the parameter values obtained fromother sources The direct .334 and k estimates include ky= = .430 for equation (5): (I- + O) = .766, andØ = .205 for equation = .028, (7): and(1 - v)= .495. (I-) = .450 for equation (II). e .055 and Four simulation results for the inflationmodel are presented in In th s contevi in h ich aggregate dern rid rs deter:ired ekogeno uslthe adaptive espectarion hpoihcsr5 is prohablsuperior to the rational fliore. br the ssage controloption the a age espectatiori hptheI5 Further- hthe con roller Increase IrflIat,i,i ion () K 0' errittden 51)4 'C lABEl. I d 1-II ISIARKIl P1(1(1 I( RI A(l11(AJIiIi)RiI ',IN III-l!\IIiiCi_II I\I'klii M091 I 10 A F,.!,i,hr,.On ( hg' wth 0Or, Fl*.pr'-e Suppk Shri:(' 1) .3 with ,j= .3 Period P, P '4 P1 P ii Pi 1.500 3.000 I .650 1.650 .500 3.001) .650 1.650 2 1.572 .3(17 1.65)) 1.455 .572 2.60)) I .651) I .67-I 3 1.549 I .4)19 1537 1.543 .6)5 2.414 1.663 I .695 4 1.543 .973 1.540 I .46)1 .646 2.126 .6)11 t .695 5 1.524 1.193 1.510 1.491 .665 I57)1 I .6)15 I .656 6 1.50 .092 1.5(5) I .468 .674 I .608 I .687 1.667 7 1.494 1.130 I .482 I .458 .673 1.345 I .676 .650 8 1.479 1.150 1.469 1.442 .662 (.076 I .656 1.603 9 1.465 1.113 1.454 1.430 .642 l.lss 1.627 1.596 10 1.451 1.106 1.441 1.416 .624 1.133 1.61)) 1.573 II 1.437 1.104 1.427 1.404 .605 1.151 1.59) .559 2 1.424 1.101 1.414 .391 .587 1.137 1.574 .542 C.
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