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World Bank Document ReportNo. 9147-PA Paraguay Country EconomicMemorandum Public Disclosure Authorized October 15, 1991 Latin Americaand the CaribbeanRegion CountryOperations Department IV FOR OFFICIAL USEONLY Public Disclosure Authorized kk,~~~~i -. h Public Disclosure Authorized - -v 2,. Public Disclosure Authorized Thisdocument has a restricteddistribution and may be usedby recipients eiWyin theperfomance of their official duties.its contentsmay not otherwise be disclosedwithout World Bankauthorization. GLOSSARY O' AlBlREV'IA'T'IONSANI) ACRONYMS ACEPAR Steel Company ANAC Civil Airports Administration ANDE Powcr Comany ANNP Ports Administration ANTEICO Te'lccommunications Company APAL Alcohol Company BCP Central Bank of Paraguay BNF National Development Bank CORPOSANA Water and Sewage Company FCCAL Railroad Company fLOMERES Shipping Traisport Company IBR Rural Wclfare Institute IDB Inter-Amcrican Devclopment Bank INC Ccmcnt Company IPS Social Sccuritv Institute IPVU Housinig Institute LAP Paraguayan International Airline LATN National Transport Airline MEC Ministry of Education MHI Ministry of Financc MlC Ministry of Industry and Commerce MOPC Ministry of Public Works and Communications MPSB Ministrv of Hlecalthand Social Welfare NBT Workers National Bank PETROPAR Oil Importing Company SIDEPAR Steel Holdin- Comrpany SFP PaIinning Secretariat lUNA Nationnal Uvniversity WB World Baink FOR OFFICIALUSE ONLY Page 1 of 2 PARAtGUAY COUNTRYDATA AKfl Population Densitv (in thousands sq. kms) 4.0 million (1989) 9.8 per sq. km 406.8 Rate of Growth 2.9 (1989) WOCIALInDICATORS (1987) Po.ulatio. Caraeteritie Realth Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000) 35 Population by Physician 1800 Crude Death Rate (per 1.000) 7 Population per Hospital Bed 700 Infant Mortality Rate (per 1,000 live births) 42 Access to 8aie Water Accoaa to Zlectricity Percent of Population -- Urban 46 Percent of Dwellings - Urban 52 - Rural 10 - Rural 40 Nutritiom Education Calorie Intake 2873 Primary School Enrollment (t) 101.0 Per Capita Protein Intake (grams per day) 81.0 PER CAPITA GROS NATIONAL PRODUT IN 1959. US$1010.4 grous National Product in 1989 USS Killion % of MNP Annual Growth Rates (%. Conatant Prices) 1977-81 1982-87 1988 1989 GNP at Market Prices 4041.4 100.0 11.1 0.7 7.0 5.4 Gross Domestic Investment 898.2 22.2 20.2 -4.8 3.7 -1.2 Gross National Savings 802.5 19.9 Current Account Balance 95.7 2.4 Exports of Goods & NPS 1466.6 36.3 1.6 11.0 8.4 10.7 Imports of Goods & NFS 1464.9 36.2 9.8 -3.6 4.2 -13.6 OUTPUT,* LABOR FORCE AMD PRODUCTIVITY IN 1989 Value Added Labor force Value Added/Per Worker US H111Dn Percent Thouwangc Percent Kill.l Percent Agriculture 809.5 20.0 570 36.8 1420.0 54.4 Industry 1212.3 30.0 315.') 20.0 3848.0 147.4 Sirvices 2019.6 50.0 663.0 42.8 3046.0 116.7 Total/Average 4041.4 100.0 1548.0 100.0 2610.0 100.0 This document has a restricteddistribution and may be used by recipientsonly in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwisebe disclosedwithout World Bank authorization. Page 2 of 2 aovuRmr rs21 Cons. Public Sector Centra! 5Overnptm got Xlllion % of GDP U8i millior %of MP 1989 1989 1984 1989 1989 1985 Cuzient Receipts 635 15.4 13.1 408 9.9 7.9 Current Expenditures 446 11.8 11.1 309 7.5 6.7 Current Balance 148 3.6 2.0 99 2.4 1.2 Capital Expenditures 219 5.3 8.4 70 1.7 2.5 Mosey, Cr-dit and Prices 1986 1987 1988 1989 (billions of guaranies outstanding at end of period) Money and Quasi Money _/ 274.7 365.6 430.6 609.4 Bank Credit to Public Sector _/ 42.8 46.2 10.7 -102.0 Bank Credit to Private Sector 166.8 211.3 276.8 384.2 Money and Quasi Money as I of GDP 15.0 14.7 13.0 13.2 General Price Index, Average (1982 - 100) 239.3 311.9 390.4 512.7 Annual Percentage Changes in: General Price Index 31.5 30.3 25.1 31.3 Bank Credit to Public Sector 21.9 7.9 -76.8 -1053.3 Bank Credit to Private Sector 35.8 26.7 31.0 38.8 -laance of Payments 1987 1988 1989 Merchandise MxDorts (1989) (US$ millions) USS million Percent Exports of Goods, NFS 872.4 1190.8 1466.6 Cotton 351.6 30.2 Isrxrts of Goods, NFS 1238.2 1484.0 1464.0 Soybeans 467.2 40.1 Resource Gap (deficit -) -365.8 -293.2 2.6 Timbe- 26.6 2.3 Livestock 136.0 11.7 Interest Payments -150.4 -154.6 -98.5 Sthers 183.0 15.7 Other Factor Payments (net -) 28.4 70.7 63.o Net Current Transfers 27.0 35.3 7.2 Total 1,164.0 100.0 Balance on Current Account -460.8 -341.8 -25.7 Direct Investment 8.5 6.2 21.0 K&LT External Debt. 12/31/89 USt illlon Public M&LT Loans (net) 88.7 -21.9 125.3 Disbursements 305.2 220.8 654.5 Public Debt inc. Guaranteed 2604.7 Amortization 216.4 242.7 529.2 Non-Guaranteed Private Pebt 26.7 Other Capital (Net) 292.1 168.5 86.1 Total Outstanding & Disbursed 2631.4 Increase in Reserves (-) 55.9 -135.3 206.7 Arrears 127.4 53.7 0.0 Debt Service Ratio for 1989 Perc<t Gross Reserves (end Year) 483.3 348.0 554.7 M&LT Public Debt inc. Guaianteed 21.1 Late of Exhanae g/ IBRD Lendina. 12/31/89 Ut milli 1980: US$1.00 - G126.0 Outstanding & Disbursed 336.5 Gl.00 - US$.0079 Undisbursed 48.0 1989: US$1.00 - G1120.0 Outstanding inc. Undisbursed 384.5 G1.00 * US$.00089 gJ Private Sector only I/ Net of Deposits S/ Average Annual Rates TABLE OF CONTENTS Paze Non. GLOSSARY JF ACRONYMS COUNTRYDATA EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS. i - viii CHAPTER I: GROWTH IN THE LAST HALF CENTURY. 1 Instabilityand "Stagflation"in the Forties and Fifties. 1 The Sixties: Establishingthe Basis for Faster Growth .. 3 Itaipu: The Basis for Accelerated Growth in the 1970s......... 5 The 1980s: Economic Instabilityand Stagnation 8 Credit and Monetary Policies .. 19 CHAPTER II: SECTORAL CONSTRAINTSAND OPPORTUNITIESFOR GROWTH .23 A. Agriculture.23 Productivity.23 Agriculture Taxation.24 EnvironmentalConsiderations .24 Future AgriculturalDevelopment Strategy 25 B. Population,Colonization and Poverty.27 Official Emphasis on Foreign Immigration Until the 1940s.27 Colonizationto Fight Poverty After 1940 29 DifficultiesAhead .30 C. Transport.30 Main Agreementswith Brazil .32 Evolution of the Road Network.32 ChallengesAhead .34 This report drawe on the findings of missions that visited Paraguay in March and November 1990. The first mission was led by J. Garcia-Mujicaand integratedby M. Cortes (Trade), C. Corti and Y. Boray (PublicEnterprises), and M. Preece (StatisticalAnnex). Contributionsalso were made by A. Fleming (Finance),J. Joyce (Agriculture),and G. Unda and W. Matthey (Transport) based on separate missions. The report also summarizesand integrates a number of studies on the Paraguayan economy indicated in the References section. The report was written by J. Garcia-Mujica. D. ;'aipu and Yacireta: Electricity as an Export ................................. 34 E. Ir.formal Trade ....... ........................... 38 CHAPTER III: POLICY REFORMS TO STIMULATE GROWTH .......... 41 A. Financial Sector Reform ........... ..... .......... 42 B. Trade Policy Reform ...... ........................ 48 The Present Customs Law ..................... 49 Revenue Collection ct.............. n........... 50 Intended Effect of the Customs Law ....... ... 52 Impact of Customs Duties by Sector .......... 53 Informal Imports . ............. ...... .. 55 The Challenges of MERCOSUR .................. 56 Export Incentive Policies ................. .. 56 Summary . ....................................57 C. Public Enterprise Reform ..... .................... 57 ANDE ..... 61 ANTELCO .... 62 CORPOSANA ................................... 63 FLOMERES .................................... 65 INC .... 66 LAP ........................................... 67 ACEPAR . ...................................... 69 PETROPAR ............. ....................... 70 Summary . .................................... 72 D. Tax Reform .... 73 The Present Tax System . ..................... 75 Ongoing AdministrativeReforms .............. 77 The Present Tax Reform .... 77 Reflectioason a Tax Reform ................. 79 CHAPTER IV: ECONOMIC PROSPECTS ............................ 81 Summary Background .......................... .81 Low Case: Retreating from the Changes Made ............ 83 High Case: Fast Implementing Missing Changes ........... 85 IntermediateCase: Slower Progress but No RetrogressioTn ........ .......................... 88 Conclusions ............................................ 89 REFERENCES..90 RPEECE .................................................. 9 ANNEX I - HISTORICAL BACKGROUND ...... ........................92 ANNEX II - SUMMARY OF SCENARIOS I AND II . 99 STATISTICAL APPENDIX ................... , 121 CsECVUTIVESUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS Agriculture hL .'een Paraguay's main source of growth since colonial times. After two devastating wars, in 1865-70 and 1932-35, the wealth of ihe land rescued the country jrom divaster. More recently, between 1940 and the mid-1 960s, the fornunes of agricultural erports were a major determinant of the rhythm of growth. New sources of growth developed in the 1960s: commerce and tourism, and constrrmction. In the 1970s, growth accelerated sharplv, with the rapid growth of agriculture based on the expanded agricultural frontier and, more importantly, the construction of Itaipu dam. The sale of surplus hydro-power from Itaipu, and from Yacireta when it is complete4 will benefit Paraguay for years to come. However, progress in the 1980s, the immediate post- construction phase of Itaipu, was marred by macroeconomic instability. Paraguay now stands at a critical but highly promising crossroads. An authoritarian regime has been deposed and the new govemment has taken a number of strong actions to restore stability, including improving public finances, bringing down inflation, unifying and liberalizing the exchange rate, freeing many interest rates and initiating a tax reform. Yet Paraguay's history contains numerous examples 2f long, strong and pervasive authoritarian regimes followed by periods of lingering and severe political instability and economic decline. The challenge for the Government is to avoid such economic deterioration. The current Govemment has an almost unique opportunity to develop a working democracy in an environment of financial stability and strong -znd sustainable economic growth.
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