The Looming Enrollment Crisis How Colleges Are Responding to Shifting Demographics and New Student Needs

The Looming Enrollment Crisis How colleges are responding to shifting demographics and new student needs

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Section 1 4 A Turbulent Future for Enrollment Most colleges can no longer count on students simply showing up on their doorstep every year: Financial worries, declining birth rates, and growing skepticism about the value of college portend a major enrollment crisis. For some colleges, that’s already arrived. Data tables show enrollment patterns nationwide. • Figures from 42 colleges compare 2019 fall enrollment with that of the previous year. Section 2 18 Weathering the Storm The enrollment crisis provides an opportunity for colleges to do some deep thinking about who they are, who they serve, and, in some extreme cases, whether they should merge or close. • A Chronicle survey of 262 enrollment officers uncovers anxiety as well optimism. Section 3 36 How Colleges are Responding: 10 Case Studies Some of the takeaways: Know your students, offer the right mix of academic programs, watch your costs. And don’t be afraid to try something new.

Section 4 58 Enrollment Experts Speak Out Those on the front line discuss strategies, fears, and the future. 72 Further Reading

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This group of seventh-grade students will enter the 12th grade in 2025.

GREENPORT UNION FREE SCHOOL DISTRICT TAKEAWAYS

Declining birthrates, financial concerns, and questions about the val- A Turbulent Future ue of college are widely expected to lead to an enrollment crisis. States in the Northeast and Upper Midwest will for Enrollment see the biggest decline in high-school graduates. By ERIC KELDERMAN The pool of likely students is expected to be- igher education finds itself in the outer band of come much smaller and a massive and slow-moving storm, threatened by more racially diverse. years of financial strain, a downturn in the nation’s Some colleges will have birthrate, and growing skepticism about the price to make difficult choices and value of a college degree. about their enrollment The fallout from the Great Recession has left practices, academic of- institutions more dependent on tuition revenue ferings, and makeup of than ever before, even as students and families their student body. find it harder to afford college. Concerns about The most-selective pri- tuition and student-loan debt are making poten- vate colleges and public tial students far more discerning about how much flagships are expected they are willing to spend and where they enroll. to fare the best. Enrollment has already begun to fall after the peak of the 2008 Colleges cannot control recession, and by fall 2019 even some selective colleges — which rarely demographics but can have had to worry about filling their classes — missed their enrollment improve retention and Hgoals. In just a few years, the pool of likely college students is expect- graduation rates. ed to become much smaller and more racially diverse. States in the Northeast and Upper Midwest, which have the greatest concentration of colleges, will see the biggest decline in high-school graduates.

the chronicle of higher education 5 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is All of this means that some types of insti- cost of providing a college degree, while sup- tutions can expect major difficulties in meet- port from states and the federal government ing enrollment and revenue goals. At worst, has not. The result has been that institutions recruiting the right mix of the students who are increasingly reliant on that tuition, rather can both afford tuition and succeed in college than on government subsidies, to meet their will become an existential challenge for many budgets. At the same time, students are paying institutions over the next decade and beyond. more to cover the cost of college. At the least, it will force some colleges to At public four-year colleges, net tuition make difficult choices about their enrollment per student (not including grant aid) has dou- practices and academic offerings, as well as bled over the past 20 years, from $1,870 in the the size and makeup of their student body. 1998-99 academic year to $3,740 in 2018-19, “If you can’t get the best class, what’s the in constant 2018 dollars, according to the Col- way forward?” asks Stefanie Niles, vice pres- lege Board. Net tuition at private nonprofit ident for enrollment and communications at colleges grew much more slowly over the same Ohio Wesleyan University. “My institution period, from $12,750 to $14,610. has started some difficult conversations about State appropriations per full-time student not growing but actually getting smaller, fell from $9,290 in 1998 to $7,900 in 2018, ac- to get more students who are likely to com- cording to figures from the State Higher Edu- plete their degrees.” Niles is president of the cation Executive Officers Association (known National Association for College Admission as Sheeo). A quarter-century ago, revenue Counseling, known as NACAC. from tuition accounted for 31 percent of the education budgets of colleges and universities. HOW WE GOT HERE In 2018 it was 47 percent, according to the association. The looming challenges represent a new set of problems for a sector that has experi- IT’S THE ECONOMY enced continued growth since the mid-20th century. The recession of 2008 brought many of Total fall enrollment in higher education higher education’s financial challenges into has increased from about 8.6 million in 1970 to sharp focus. As often happens during eco- nearly 20 million in 2018, according to federal nomic downturns, enrollment soared, increas- data. Over the same period, the percentage of ing nearly 10 percent nationally from 2008 to the U.S. population with a four-year degree 2011, as state budgets tanked and endowment or higher has grown from just 11 percent to values plunged. 34 percent, the National Center for Education The long recovery since that time has Statistics reports. stabilized some parts of the economy, yet fi- The growth was fueled, initially, by federal money from the GI Bill, which paved the way for more than two million veterans of World War II to earn college degrees, creat- “My institution has started ing an expectation for their children, the baby boomers, to follow suit. The federal investment has increased considerably since then, some difficult conversations with Pell Grants for low-income students, money to support work-study programs on about not growing but actually campus, and loans backed and now issued by the government. States, too, made large investments in getting smaller, to get more higher education, with direct support of public campuses, scholarships for students there, students who are likely to and, in some states, grants to in-state students who attend private colleges. But as enrollment has grown, so has the complete their degrees.”

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 6 the chronicle of higher education ANDREW SPEAR Stefanie Niles, vice president for enrollment and communications at Ohio Wesleyan University, says liberal-arts institutions like hers will be more pressed by families on how educational offerings connect to career goals. Here, Niles (center) talks to prospective students.

nancial conditions in certain sectors of higher source — the student share — remains at a education seem to be as tenuous as ever. En- near high.” rollments, overall, have now fallen for seven The fragility of some public institutions consecutive years, but remain higher than comes into relief in states like Alaska, where they were before the recession. the governor slashed 41 percent of the univer- For the second year in a row, Moody’s sity system’s budget in July 2019, leading to a Investors Service issued a negative outlook vote on financial exigency and plans for major for higher education in 2019, saying that op- reductions in faculty and programs, and the erating expenses, such as the cost of labor, possibility of campus closures or mergers. will grow faster than tuition revenue. Falling After a political backlash, the governor enrollments play a part in that, the analysts agreed to lessen the cuts, but plans remain for wrote, because many students were opting for some faculty layoffs, and the system is moving employment as the economy grew. And com- forward with a controversial plan to consoli- petition for the shrinking number of students date its accreditation. means that colleges will seek to keep the price Private colleges are facing their own set of of tuition as low as possible. problems in the aftermath of the recession, re- The Sheeo annual report on state finances lated to stagnant family incomes and concerns in 2019 concluded that a decade after the start about the price and value of college. As both of the recession, “state funding for higher ed- operating costs and tuition prices have risen, ucation has only halfway recovered, while the private colleges have repeatedly increased the growing reliance on net tuition as a revenue tuition discounts they offer in the form of

the chronicle of higher education 7 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is DATA A New Set of Challenges

FINANCIAL PRESSURES ENROLLMENT IS ALREADY FALLING For the second year in a row, Recent semesters have brought fewer students, except in Moody’s Investors Service posted 2018-19 at four-year private nonprofit colleges. a negative outlook for the U.S. higher-education market in 2019. Annual percentage change in enrollment

Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring 4% 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 Expected overall operating- expense growth 4-year private nonprofit

3.2% 3.7% 2.4% Projected revenue growth

-0.2% >50% -0.4% -0.4% Public colleges that will fall short of 3% revenue growth, 4-year Moody’s minimum for a public stable outlook 0.2%

0% >40% -0.2% -0.2% -0.9% Private colleges that will fall short 2-year of 3% revenue growth public % to -1.7% 1 3.5 -2.0% Projected growth in net tuition, -2.5% most colleges’ main source of revenue -3.2% -3.4%

Note: Overall expense and revenue figures exclude health- care operations. Source: Moody’s Investors Service, 2019 Higher Education Source: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, Current Term Enrollment - Spring 2019 (U.S.) Outlook

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 8 the chronicle of higher education DECLINING STUDENT DEMAND A leading state-level forecast of traditional-age college-going students shows sharp declines across much of the country through 2029. Forecasted growth in students who will attend college, 2012 to 2029 < -15% -15% to -2.5% -2.5% to 2.5% > 2.5%

Note: Forecast is of 18-year-old college-going students. Source: Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education by Nathan D. Grawe

PUBLIC DISTRUST The general population is skeptical of colleges.

Americans who say higher education Those who say a major reason is: is going in the wrong direction:

Tuition costs Students don’t are too high: get the skills 84% they need to 65% succeed in the 61% workplace: Source: Pew Research Center, 2018 American Trends Panel

the chronicle of higher education 9 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is merit aid to students. fees has increased 47 percent — meaning that In 2018, that discount for first-time fresh- the high tuition/high discount approach has men at private colleges averaged more than 52 become a losing proposition for some colleges. percent of tuition and fees, according to an “Tuition discounting has inched across annual survey by the National Association of the 50-percent mark at a time when most if College and University Business Officers (Na- not all institutions realize they have to be very cubo). The average amount of tuition-discount conservative in their cost increases,” says Jim aid has nearly doubled since 2008, the survey Hundrieser, vice president for consulting at found, while the published price of tuition and Nacubo. “Both access and quality are equally important — and how do you balance those when you can’t raise tuition like you did in the 1980s?” MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME HAS RISEN ONLY SLIGHTLY Since 2018 several small insti- FROM 2007 tutions in New England have shut Median household their doors or announced plans to income close, including Green Mountain, $64000 Mount Ida, Newbury, and Southern Vermont Colleges, and the College 62000 of St. Joseph. Many higher-education experts 60000 say the overall number of closings is 58000 no higher than in the past. A study from the American Council on Ed- 56000 ucation found that 86 percent of colleges that closed from 2014 to 2017 54000 were for-profit institutions. 52000 Mergers between colleges is an- 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 other emerging phenomenon, seen as a way to overcome the challenges of lagging enrollment and the nat- Note: Figures were adjusted for inflation and are represented in 2018 dollars. ural inefficiencies of small colleges. There is skepticism, though, that merging two similar institutions OUTSTANDING STUDENT DEBT PER RECIPIENT GROWS STEADILY provides any buffer from the widespread challenges now facing such institutions. Looking at the 55 pri- Outstanding student- loan debt vate, nonprofit colleges that ceased $40000 to exist between 2016 and 2019, Robert Witt and Kevin P. Coyne found that just 14 merged, and 35000 that all but one were either small or niche institutions absorbed by a 30000 larger college. “So while there will likely be a handful of mergers among pri- 25000 vate nonprofit colleges in the future,” Witt and Coyne wrote in 20000 The Chronicle, “the data suggest that 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 most will be unusual — based on atypical factors, like those of the Note: Average outstanding student-loan debt per recipient covers outstanding principal and interest balances. past few years.” Figures were adjusted to 2018 dollars, except for 2019, which is in current dollars. Source: Chronicle analysis of National Student Loan Data System’s federal-student-aid portfolio summary

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 10 the chronicle of higher education THE IMPENDING CLIFF Ohio, and Wisconsin — are expected to face similar declines. The Great Recession had another impact In the South and West, the trends look that will be felt across higher education: a steep different, with a steady increase in high-school drop in the nation’s birthrate after 2008. This grads until the decline after 2025. By then “the “birth dearth,” as it has been called by Nathan South will generate about 10 percent more D. Grawe, a professor of economics at Carleton College, will result in a decline in the number of traditional-age college students after 2025, and to shifts in enrollment patterns across the nation. “Both access and quality are A chart of this phenomenon looks like a cliff with a 4.5-percent increase in high-school equally important — and graduates between 2020 and 2025 then a nearly 9-percent-plunge that bottoms out in 2031, according to projections from the Western In- how do you balance those terstate Compact for Higher Education. The effects will be far greater in certain parts of when you can’t raise tuition the country. In the Northeast and Midwest, the number of high-school graduates peaked in 2010 and is already on a long slide. By 2031 like you did in the 1980s?” the expected number of high-school graduates in those regions will have fallen 14 percent, graduates than in 2013 and will be primarily according to the Wiche data, with an even responsible for the growth predicted for the greater decline in certain states in those re- nation around 2025,” says Wiche. “The West gions. is projected to have modest growth (4 percent) The number of high-school graduates is in the total number of high-school graduates projected to fall more than 15 percent in five through 2024.” states in the Northeast — Maine, New Hamp- The regional changes are almost entirely shire, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Ver- the result of the differing rates of population mont. In the Midwest, three states — Illinois, growth among racial groups. As a whole, the

In September 2008, the investment bank Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, a key factor in the Great Recession, which led to a steep drop in the nation’s birthrates. That decline is expected to trigger enrollment challenges for colleges in years ahead.

JON ENOCH, EYEVINE, REDUX

the chronicle of higher education 11 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is DATA Looking Back: Enrollment Winners and Losers PAINFUL YEARS FOR FOR-PROFITS UNDERGRADUATE LOSS By 2017, overall college enrollment had dropped nearly 6 Enrollment of graduate students has grown, percent since its peak in 2010. The for-profit sector was the but not nearly as much as undergraduate biggest loser, while enrollment in three sectors actually grew. enrollment has fallen. 2010 2017 Sector 2010 2017 % change Undergraduates 4-year public 7,923,091 8,856,035 11.8 18,089,391 16,769,025 4-year private nonprofit 3,836,897 4,074,762 6.2 Graduate students 2,944,128 4-year for-profit 1,589,934 914,454 -42.5 3,017,955 Source: Chronicle analysis of U.S. Department of Education data 2-year public 7,218,063 5,706,678 -20.9 2-year private nonprofit 32,683 48,390 48.1 DECLINE IN NUMBER OF 2-year for-profit 432,851 186,701 -56.9 FULL-TIME UNDERGRADUATES The number of full-time undergraduates All 6 sectors 21,033,519 19,787,020 -5.9 fell more than the number of part-time undergraduates. Note: More than 60 percent of the gain for four-year public institutions and 38 percent of the loss for two- year public institutions can be attributed to two-year colleges becoming identified as four-year colleges 2010 2017 after they began offering bachelor’s degrees. Source: Chronicle analysis of U.S. Department of Education data Full-time undergraduates 11,461,944 10,370,817 A BIG JUMP IN EXCLUSIVELY ONLINE LEARNERS Part-time undergraduates From 2012 to 2017, enrollment of students who were 6,627,447 exclusively taking distance-education courses dropped by more 6,398,208 than 260,000 in the for-profit sector as that sector shrank. But growth in other sectors resulted in a net gain of nearly half Source: Chronicle analysis of U.S. Department of Education data a million students enrolled in distance education only.

Sector 2012 2017 % change ADULT UNDERGRADUATES ARE 4-year public 576,262 915,454 58.9% GETTING SCARCER The number of undergraduates age 25 and 4-year private nonprofit 468,284 778,775 66.3% older dropped by more than 1.5 million from 2011 to 2017, while the number under age 25 4-year for-profit 901,590 652,567 -27.6% grew by more than 250,000. 2011 2017 2-year public 655,920 743,259 13.3% Age under 25 2-year private nonprofit 767 19,721 2,471.2% 12,026,191 12,279,042 2-year for-profit 21,534 10,157 -52.8% Age 25 and older 5,986,006 All 6 sectors 2,624,357 3,119,993 18.9% 4,464,352

Note: 2012 was the first year the U.S. Department of Education required reporting of students enrolled ex- Note: Figures represent all undergraduates whose age was known. clusively in online education. Source: Chronicle analysis of U.S. Department of Education data Source: Chronicle analysis of U.S. Department of Education data

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 12 the chronicle of higher education What’s Ahead HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES IN THE U.S. UNDERGRADUATE LOSS The number of new high-school graduates in the United States is expected to increase each year from 2020-21 through 2024-25. It will then fall each of the following four years, dropping by nearly 300,000 graduates from 2024-25 to 2028-29, a loss of more than 8 percent. Projected change in millions 3.60

3.55

3.50

3.45

3.40

3.35

3.30

3.25

3.20 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020- 2021- 2022- 2023- 2024- 2025- 2026- 2027- 2028- 2029- 2030- 2031- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

Note: The number for 2010-11 is the reported count. Projections begin with 2011-12. Totals include graduates of both public and private high schools but exclude home-schooled students. Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, 2016, www.wiche.edu/knocking

HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES BY REGION The number of new high-school graduates is expected to fall in three of the country’s four main regions from 2010-11 to 2031-32, with growth projected only in the South. Declines in the Northeast and Midwest are already well under way. Projected change

in millions Northeast Midwest South West 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 2010- 2015- 2020- 2026- 2031- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2026- 2031- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2026- 2031- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2026- 2031- 2011 2016 2021 2027 2032 2011 2016 2021 2027 2032 2011 2016 2021 2027 2032 2011 2016 2021 2027 2032

Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, 2016, www.wiche.edu/knocking

the chronicle of higher education 13 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is who are most likely to attend college. At the broadest level, enrollment may be hit hardest by a decline in white high-school “It comes down to money at graduates, who have typically made up the majority of the college going population, Grawe enrollment. I do see that it is writes in his book, Demographics and the De- mand for Higher Education (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2018). The areas that will see more difficult for families to the biggest declines in white students also have the largest number of colleges, especially small, make that investment.” private ones. At the same time, the expected increase in the number of Hispanic high-school graduates United States is expected to have a majority-mi- will be concentrated mostly in the Southern nority population by 2043, and the projections and Western states — which have had a lower of high-school graduates follows accordingly. concentration of colleges and lower rates of col- The number of white high-school graduates will decline the most, according to the Wiche analysis: “By 2030, the number of white public-school graduates is projected to decrease by 14 percent com- TUITION-DISCOUNT RATES KEEP GETTING MORE GENEROUS pared to 2013.” The increase in the num- The share of revenue from tuition and fees that went back to first-time, full-time freshmen at private nonprofit institu- ber of students of color, however, will tions in the form of scholarships and grants surpassed 50 almost match the decrease in white stu- percent for the first time in 2017-18. dents for several years, before students of color, too, will decline somewhat, says First-time, full-time freshmen All undergraduates the Wiche report. “Between 2018 and 2028, growth in 60% the number of non-white public-high- school graduates is projected to replace 55% 52.2% the numerical decrease in white gradu- 50% ates to a varying extent,” the report says. The number of minority students will 45% also decline somewhat after 2029, Wiche 46.3% estimates, but will still be higher than in 40% 2013. The number of Hispanic high- 35% school graduates will grow by nearly 50 percent before 2025, the Wiche report 30% says, before it falls about 14 percent by 2032. The number of Asian high-school 25% graduates is far smaller but is expected to grow consistently beyond the next 20% decade. 15%

WINNERS AND LOSERS 10%

The demographic forecasts are little 5% surprise to many in higher education. But Grawe has made a more nuanced 0% analysis of how they may affect college 2007- 2009- 2011- 2013- 2015- 2018- 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2019* enrollment by projecting how the demo- *Preliminary estimate graphic changes will affect the students Source: National Association of College and University Business Officers

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 14 the chronicle of higher education The projected decline in the number of high-school graduates is expected to be especially steep in the Northeast. Pictured here is the campus of Boston Latin School, a historic secondary school.

lege going. Those changes won’t automatically than in the past, and their children are more mean a big decline at all colleges in the North- likely to attend college than previous genera- east, or an increase in the number of students in tions were. the South, Grawe writes. Instead, enrollment If the overall number of high-school grad- patterns at individual institutions will depend uates declines and the most-selective colleges to a large degree on their status and reputation. do not increase their capacity, then a sort of Grawe’s work should have hit any college spillover of students could enroll at less selec- leader “like a ton of bricks,” says Kent Dever- tive institutions, Grawe writes. Another possi- eaux, president of Goucher College, just out- ble bright spot, he says in an interview, is that side Baltimore. Colleges are in trouble, he adds, there has been a sharp increase in the percent- if they’re “not looking at those numbers five age of Hispanic students who are likely to at- years out and saying what are we going to do to tend college. If that trend holds, it could offset be prepared for that?” at least some of the expected decline in overall The likely winners in this scenario are, not enrollment. surprisingly, very selective private colleges and However, the bulk of colleges that are not flagship public institutions that have a well- selective, or that offer open access, and rely on known brand and the ability to recruit students students who live within driving distance, will across state lines and even internationally. In be more subject to the demographic trends of his book, Grawe projects that enrollment at the region, according to Grawe. such institutions could grow by nearly a quar- Two-year colleges in particular could be ter before 2025, when their enrollment would the biggest losers. “The primary challenge fall by 9 percent. for the two-year sector in the next 15 years Not all of the projections are gloomy. is clear: dramatically reduced enrollments,” Grawe explains that his book is looking at fu- Grawe writes. “Indeed, the expected rate of ture demand for higher education based on contraction in two-year enrollments is almost current practice and policy. But there is a much 20 percent faster than for college enrollments higher percentage of college-educated parents in general.”

the chronicle of higher education 15 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is Enrollment challenges are “top of mind” vate (44 percent) and for-profit (40 percent) for campus leaders, says Martha Parham, se- colleges are worth the price. nior vice president for public relations at the Some in higher education believe that American Association of Community Colleges. price sensitivity is starting to affect the com- Small, rural colleges are at the greatest risk petition for students. The number of colleges for a steep enrollment decline, she says, even that are keeping their applications open past though they are crucial to their communities as May 1 has increased by 27 percent in recent the only available option for higher education. years, according to the National Association “What happens in a social-justice sense,” for College Admission Counseling. she asks, “when there is no access to higher ed- Some selective private colleges, like ucation in those areas?” Bucknell University, that have in the past Others are concerned that even as the share had no trouble meeting enrollment goals are of minority students increases, more-selective now losing students to lower-priced pub- public colleges will continue to focus their re- lic universities with similar academic pro- cruiting efforts on white students. James Kvaal, grams. Bucknell’s biggest competitor has president of the Institute for College Access & become Pennsylvania State University, with Success, says minorities are already overrep- the University of Delaware also among the resented at community colleges and regional top five, probably because it has a more-af- public institutions, which get far less support per student from state governments than do flagship universities.

NEW SKEPTICISM AND PRICE SENSITIVITY On top of the fiscal and demographic pressures, colleges are facing a skeptical public, which now questions both the ability of higher education to prepare students for the workplace and the cost of doing so. A 2019 poll by the think tank New America found that most respondents believe that people with college credentials are better able to find job opportunities. But only a third think higher education is “fine just the way it is.” A little less than half believe “Americans can get a high-quality education after high school that is also affordable.” New America’s poll also found a majority who say community colleges and public four-year colleges and universities are worth the price (81 percent and 65 percent, respec- Dennis Gephardt, a vice president and higher-education analyst at tively). But lower proportions Moody’s Investors Service, says only the most selective private and of respondents believe that pri- public colleges are now protected from price sensitivity.

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 16 the chronicle of higher education fordable engineering program, says Bill lies and institutions. Conley, Bucknell’s vice president for enroll- A recent development may also create even ment management. fiercer competition for students. In order to Dennis Gephardt, a vice president and avoid a federal antitrust suit, NACAC has ad- higher-education analyst at Moody’s, says opted new guidelines, which allow colleges to only the most selective private and public recruit students even after they have signaled colleges are now protected from this price their commitment to another college. sensitivity. “For most of the middle, that’s not the case,” he says. And even if they are meeting enrollment targets, they may be “hitting a wall on the price,” he says, finding “Families have to make themselves trapped in the cycle of spending more on financial aid than they are generat- ing in net tuition revenue. hard decisions. It Price could also become a big factor in the decision of students who might be consid- comes down to money ering a niche institution, such as a women’s or faith-based institution, says Joshua Brown, an instructor of leadership, policy, and foun- at enrollment. I do see dations at the University of Virginia. “They will pay that extra price in order to be in that that it is more difficult value-based environment. But if there comes a time when they question the validity of that environment, they’ve got public schools at for families to make that home that are less expensive.” Niles, the president of NACAC, the ad- investment.” missions-counselors association, says liberal-arts colleges, too, could feel the pressure, because the public doesn’t connect those in- Despite the scope of its problems, many stitutions with career preparation. “I work think higher education will survive, though for a liberal-arts institution, so people who with a different look. Gephardt, the Moody’s are there have already considered the ben- analyst, says more small, private colleges will efits,” she says. “But families have to make close, but that mergers are a viable option. hard decisions. It comes down to money at One way forward, says Grawe, the econo- enrollment. I do see that it is more difficult mist at Carleton College, is to focus less on re- for families to make that investment.” cruiting new students and more on practices to keep current students. “Demographics are the thing we have the least control over,” he says, WHAT COLLEGES CAN CONTROL but colleges “can change practices to improve All of this adds up to a difficult future, retention and graduation.” Such an approach, not only for enrollment managers but also for he adds, might also help persuade students and administrators and faculty members across the public about the value of the degree. departments and disciplines. They will have Many colleges will have to look beyond to make key decisions about spending and their traditional missions to serve a more di- revenue, about the kinds of students the in- verse population of students, argues Niles. “It’s stitution can enroll, and about academic and too risky,” she says, “to focus on white, wealthy support programs the college can provide for students.” them. “Many of my colleagues, particularly those In addition to the current challenges, the with experience, have seen the tide shifting and economy could suffer another recession, which realize that no matter how well we market our- would spur some new enrollment but also cre- selves, there will be fewer students and differ- ate greater financial uncertainty for both fami- ent kinds of students.”

the chronicle of higher education 17 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is SECTION 2

Phong Le, associate professor of mathematics at Goucher College, teaches a course in the new Integrative Data Analytics major there.

ROB FERRELL

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 18 the chronicle of higher education TAKEAWAYS:

Many colleges will have to change their usual practices, and not just Weathering compete for the same students, to survive the enrollment crisis.

Colleges should the Storm carefully consider what value they offer students, while balanc- By LEE GARDNER ing revenue, cost, and the right mix of academic programs. he signs have been there for years — warnings about waning demographics, a tougher time filling out It takes a united board fall classes, rising costs, rising resentment from tui- and leadership to bring tion-paying families. As institutions fail to make their about genuine transfor- enrollment targets and eye their annual budgets ner- mation. vously, it’s clear that it’s no longer business as usual for many colleges. The enrollment crisis is here. Colleges must update Many colleges face an existential dilemma. They their program offerings can hope and pray that the assumptions and practic- to reflect student es that have sustained them for decades will, some- demand, but must handle program cuts how, see them through an uncertain, and in many with great care. ways unpromising, future. Or they can look for ways to adapt to that future. Some colleges are But adapt how? What strategies and tactics might help them making an effort to re- shore up their finances, weather the worst of demographic challeng- cruit more international, es,T stabilize their business models, and better prepare them to face adult, and lower-income a new age? students.

the chronicle of higher education 19 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is This section of the report examines some for The Chronicle, 79 percent of respondents of the things colleges are trying, or pondering, said their institutions planned to grow en- to deal with the changes overtaking the sector. rollment in the near future. More than half Colleges must consider their value proposi- of respondents hoped to increase the size of tions, and how well-prepared their leadership their freshman class in 2019, and 31 percent is to meet, and embrace, transformation. They hoped to increase their class by more than 5 must parse which groups of students they can percent. wager on to build their enrollments. They must They shouldn’t necessarily bet their bud- grapple with the critical balance of revenue and gets on that, according to Richard L. Stais- cost. And they must consider the mix of pro- loff, principal of the RPK Group, a company grams that will prepare them, and their stu- that consults for colleges. “Institutions across dents, for the 21st century. the board thinking they're going to grow 5 What they can’t do, most likely, is stand percent, that runs very counter right to what pat. “The days of yesteryear are gone,” says we know is going on in the marketplace,” he John T. Lawlor, principal of Lawlor Advisory, says. Most colleges will not be able to rely on a company that consults for colleges. growth, but “it's way easier to just say that than The crisis will challenge most institu- to make the hard choices about how you're us- tions to some degree. “You've got a problem ing the resources you already have.” that is not just centralized to private colleges or third-tier publics,” says Brian C. Mitchell, QUESTIONING THE VALUE PROPOSITION president of Brian Mitchell and Associates, a consulting company, and former president of Perhaps the most fundamental thing col- Bucknell University and Washington & Jeffer- lege leaders must try to understand about their son College. institutions in 2019 is what is their value? Not A small cadre of elite institutions with their financial worth, or their cultural or in- fat endowments and strong national brands tellectual importance, or their benefit to their can continue to enroll their pick of students. communities and their graduates, but what do State flagships and pub- they offer to students? lic research universities And, critically, is what should be insulated from they offer something students want? the worst effects. But with Comment from the Chronicle survey the kind of student who For centuries, col- can actually pay $60,000, “I see private liberal-arts leges have been built and or even $20,000, for a colleges as an endangered shaped to offer a breadth year of college in shorter of knowledge — the hu- species. It’s like Warren supply, the high-tuition, manities and sciences of high-discount financial Buffett always said, ‘It’s the classic liberal-arts model of many private only when the tide goes curriculum, professions colleges will be unsus- like medicine and law, out that one discovers tainable. Many four-year business and communi- public comprehensive uni- who is swimming naked.’ cations, even agriculture. versities, though relatively There are a lot of naked This assembled bounty affordable, will feel the of subjects has taken on swimmers out there.” demographic pinch along- the aura of an indivisi- side their private peers. ble whole-cloth good, a Says Mitchell: The treasure well worth the colleges that will be best sometimes six figures a positioned by 2030 will “be those that were the student and her family most adaptable.” might pay for it. For decades, colleges have tried to grow It’s true, data indicate that a college educa- their way out of problems. In a survey of col- tion remains one of the most valuable invest- lege enrollment managers and other admin- ments a graduate ever makes. istrators conducted by Maguire Associates The education that colleges offer and the

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 20 the chronicle of higher education education that students want, and need, how- come of age in the wake of the Great Recession, ever, may be mismatched in essential ways. For the intellectual benefits of college may be sub- many inside and outside academe, the idea of ordinate to connecting to the world of work. a college education still evokes “the afternoon That may mean less Dickinson and more cy- seminar underneath the spreading boughs bersecurity or data analytics. of the pine tree talking about Emily Dickin- Many colleges live in denial of the changes son,” says Bryan Alexander, a futurist and se- in what students want, especially their inter- nior scholar at Georgetown University. But est in career preparation, and see ebbing en- for many recent high-school graduates, having rollment as only a marketing challenge. They

SAMPLE OF PUBLIC INSTITUTION ENROLLMENT NUMBERS 2018-19 We collected enrollment data for 2018 and 2019 from a sampling of colleges around the country. (Note: Data from some of the colleges is based on preliminary figures. Year-by-year enrollment numbers can be volatile, and the factors involved can vary.) 2019 2018 Institution Enrollment Enrollment Change State Black Hills State U. 3,858 4,035 -177 S.D. Bloomsburg U. of Pennsylvania* 8,689 8,924 -235 Pa. California U. of Pennsylvania 6,842 7,312 -470 Pa. Dakota State U. 3,268 3,382 -114 S.D. Dixie State U. 11,193 9,950 1,243 Utah U. of Florida 56,361 56,079 282 Fla. U. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign** 51,196 49,339 1,857 Ill. Indiana U. of Pennsylvania 10,636 11,325 -689 Pa. U. of Iowa 32,535 32,948 -413 Iowa Iowa State U. 33,391 34,992 -1601 Iowa U. of Michigan 47,852 46,488 1,364 Mich. U. of Nebraska at Lincoln*** 25,332 25,820 -488 Neb. U. of New Mexico 22,792 24,393 -1,601 N.M. Ohio U. 68,262 68,100 162 Ohio U. of Oklahoma 31,244 31,702 -458 Okla. South Dakota School of Mines and Technology 2,529 2,654 -125 S.D. Southern Utah U. 11,224 10,196 1,028 Utah Texas A&M U. 69,465 69,367 98 Tex. U. of Utah 32,852 33,023 -171 Utah Utah State U. 27,810 27,932 -122 Utah Utah Valley U. 41,735 39,931 1,894 Utah U. of Vermont 13, 548 13,395 153 Vt. Weber State U. 29,644 28,247 1,397 Utah Western Michigan U. 21,062 21,720 -658 Mich. U. of Wisconsin at Madison 45,319 44,411 908 Wis.

Note: * Bloomsburg welcomed the largest first-year class in its history in 2019. ** 2019 enrollment is the largest in the U. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign’s history. ***According to a press re- lease, a slump in international-student enrollment had a significant impact on this year’s total

the chronicle of higher education 21 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is SAMPLE OF PRIVATE INSTITUTION ENROLLMENT NUMBERS 2018-19 We collected enrollment data for 2018 and 2019 from a sampling of colleges around the country. (Note: Data from some of the colleges is based on preliminary figures. Year-by-year enrollment numbers can be volatile, and the factors involved can vary.) 2019 2018 Institution Enrollment Enrollment Change State Allegheny College 1,775 1,771 -4 Pa. Assumption College 2,446 2,429 17 Mass. Bennington College 799 796 3 Vt. Carlow U. 2,022 2,076 -54 Pa. Case Western Reserve U. 11,874 11,891 -17 Ohio Clark U.* 3,498 3,122 376 Mass. Colgate U. 2,994 2,978 16 N.Y. Creighton U. 8,821 8,910 -89 Neb. Dickinson College 2,120 2,377 -257 Pa. Dordt U.** 1,547 1,569 -22 Iowa Gettysburg College 2,623 2,644 -21 Pa. Le Moyne College 2,684 2,674 10 N.Y. Midland U. 1,254 1,238 16 Neb. Mount Holyoke College 2,190 2,208 -18 Mass. Northwestern College 1,412 1,307 105 Iowa Rochester Institute of Technology 18,897 19,047 -150 N.Y. Union College 2,157 2,178 -21 N.Y.

Note: *Clark’s class of 2023 is one of the largest in recent years. ** While Dordt had a decline in students from last year, 2018 was its largest enrollment ever, and 2019 was its second-largest.

may think, “We're doing great work, and it's Ohio, knew that they needed to figure out how the right stuff, and if only more people knew to inspire more students to enroll. “We looked we were doing it everything would be solved,” Staisloff says, but in many cases, “that’s just not true.” Institutions need to do a good job telling people about what they have to offer, but they Comment from the Chronicle survey must make sure that what they offer is something students want. “Especially for private schools, out- College leaders still pin their hopes more come data are emerging as critical- on salesmanship than on reconsidering what they’re selling. In the Chronicle’s survey of en- ly important. It is frustrating that rollment officers and other administrators, 68 lower-cost state schools get praise percent of institutions had put more resources for their cost and ‘value’ but fre- into digital marketing over the past five years to bolster enrollment, and only 47 percent had quently don’t get called out on their started new academic programs out of per- low/poor outcomes like retention ceived demand, even though the latter was con- or four-year graduation rates.” sidered slightly more effective. Leaders at the College of Wooster, in

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 22 the chronicle of higher education each other in the eye and asked honestly, who rollment by as much as 15 percent per year. in this room knows what would be inspiring to Failing that, he told them, the best strategy 17-year-olds?” says Sarah R. Bolton, the presi- would be for the college to consider a merger dent. Commissioning research to learn what its with another institution. prospective students want has helped her and Devereaux expanded the college’s recruit- her cabinet move away from, “Let's argue about ing far outside New England, and poured mon- which of these is the best idea because someone ey into digital marketing. Enrollment grew by just thinks it's the best idea.” 5 percent the first year and 8 percent the next That doesn’t mean that Bolton plans year. But after three years, enrollment still to make all future decisions based on what wasn’t growing fast enough, and data about de- 17-year-olds think, she says, “but it’s definitely clining demographics indicated that it wouldn’t the case that you don't want to make decisions get any easier. Devereaux and the board had absent that information.” had three years to ponder their chances and For example, Wooster recently considered their options, and they decided, “We're not making leadership skills a focus of its appeal gonna be able to outrun this,” he says. The in- to students. Research indicated, however, that stitute spent a year quietly looking for partners potential students weren’t and merged with New much interested in lead- England College in the ership, but they were in- summer of 2019. terested in a feeling of Comment from the Chronicle survey Devereaux took the welcome and connection job at the institute know- and inclusion — not just “Currently presidents and ing that marketplace con- for retention, but also for boards expect enrollment ditions might mean that recruitment. “We were departments to perform the college would not surprised to find that, in make it, but he was sur- our market study, that was miracles each year to prised to find “how few actually the highest im- enroll enough students to college presidents, and pact thing we could do,” survive, often on a shoe- how few boards, were even Bolton says. aware of the issue.” Sever- string budget. We’d like al New England colleges LEADING FOR CHANGE to do more, but are forced had gone out of business to live within our means. during the previous three Lawlor, the consul- years, but during the tant, says that he’s seen It’s not sustainable.” merger process, he says, “I more college presidents would get all kinds of calls look to market research from other presidents and to inform their think- other college boards. No ing about where to steer clue. No clue.” their institutions. But many leaders still rely Reality is setting in for more leaders, Law- on practices and assumptions formed during lor says, and he’s seen more presidents and boom times. That may leave them unprepared boards work together to face it. But there are for maneuvering in a new reality. still exceptions. Before Kent Devereaux became president When Roger N. Casey interviewed for the of Goucher College, in Maryland, he was presi- job of president of McDaniel College, in Mary- dent of the New Hampshire Institute of Art, in land, 10 years ago, he asked the board, “Do you Manchester. When he took the institute job in have the stomach for change?” No matter what 2015, the declining number of traditional-age they profess, trustees may not be ready for real high-school graduates in New England had al- change, or be patient enough to see it through. ready taken its toll. Enrollment at the tiny art Over the past decade, McDaniel has re- college had dropped in each of the preceding sponded to changing demographics by more four years to around 400 students. From the heavily recruiting lower-income students and beginning, he says, he told the board of trust- students of color. In early 2019, the college ees that the institute would need to boost en- eliminated five majors, including French, Ger-

the chronicle of higher education 23 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is Sarah R. Bolton, president of the College of Wooster, welcomes new students to campus.

COLLEGE OF WOOSTER man, and music, and announced new programs, — a key consideration for many colleges. They including criminal justice and health sciences. are often more likely to be able to afford higher McDaniel enrolled 637 new students in fall undergraduate tuition, although they are also 2019, its largest incoming class ever. more likely to weigh the amount of merit aid Casey credits the board’s support and pain their college decision. Colleges have focused tience for much of the college’s transforma- on them, and counted on them, for decades, so tion. “There are a lot of people who think, OK, perhaps habit plays a role. we're gonna make this shift, and if it doesn't But at almost any college in a region that’s work, next year, let's do something else,” he demographically shrinking that’s still trying to says. With strong and unwavering board sup- find “any path to growth by pursuing the same port, “you can do some things that are really students that everyone else is fighting over, difficult to do in places in which you've got a it's probably a road to nowhere,” says John L. divided board.” Comerford, president of Otterbein Universi- A united board and leadership can make ty, in Ohio. “We certainly still pursue those the difference, but so can a united cabinet. students, but that's not going to be an area of Having a tight team around him, Casey says, growth.” helped the college move quickly and decisively For years, colleges have bolstered their to make changes. He re- enrollment, and their tu- cently talked to the pres- ition revenue, by recruit- ident at an institution that ing students internation- had made similar academ- Comment from the Chronicle survey ally, largely from India ic shifts but had seen a and China. More colleges significant enrollment de- “The collective push have joined them. In the cline. The president told toward tuition discount- Chronicle survey, 37 per- him that the college had ing is ultimately an unsus- cent of respondents said continued to recruit stu- they had expanded inter- dents for shuttered majors tainable arms race that will national recruiting over because the provost and have detrimental effects on the past five years, and vice president for enroll- the capacity for institutions nearly half had found it ment “don't even talk to effective. Less than 30 each other.” to thrive, let alone survive percent of respondents a future beset by said that they planned to expand international re- SEARCHING FOR demographic challenges.” cruiting in the future. STUDENTS The College of The challenge fac- Wooster, for example, has ing colleges isn’t enroll- successfully expanded its ing students, per se. That is, many colleges recruiting abroad. In the early 2010s, the col- have “made good investments over the last lege enrolled about 35 new students from other decade-plus in the mechanics of the pipeline,” countries. For the past few fall semesters, it has Staisloff says, and are better at finding and re- brought in as many as 100 freshman from 41 cruiting students than they ever have been. But different nations, about a fifth of its entering there are fewer fresh 18-year-old high-school class. graduates to be enrolled. The economics pro- But international recruiting faces an un- fessor Nathan D. Grawe’s analysis projects that certain future. Indian and Chinese students the number of college-bound students in the now have better homegrown higher-education Northeast and parts of the Midwest will drop options than they did even a decade ago. Chi- by as much as 15 percent before 2029. na’s growing global power, and its sometimes Colleges remain fixated on middle-class adversarial relationship with the United States, 18-year-olds for good reason. They are the make it an unpredictable partner. McDaniel students whose typically higher test scores and had planned to do a joint bachelor's-degree grade-point averages boost universities in na- project with Anhui Normal University, in Chi- tional rankings and add to institutional prestige na, where students in the college’s kinesiology

the chronicle of higher education 25 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is program would study two years in China and As with international students, the in- two years in Maryland. “Overnight the Chi- creased competition for first-time, full-time nese government changes its mind,” says Casey, students may drive increased competition for the president, and the program had to shift to transfers. At Evergreen State College, a public three years and one year, respectively. liberal-arts college in Olympia, Wash., trans- It doesn’t help that recent changes in U.S. fer students made up about half of total en- immigration policy have effectively rolled up rollment. the welcome mat for foreign students. “Right But two years ago, the University of Wash- now, the U.S. looks terrible on the world stage,” ington at Seattle, about an hour away, made it- says Alexander, of Georgetown. In addition to self more transfer-friendly through more active the Trump administration’s Muslim ban, the recruiting and more transparent policies. To ongoing series of mass shootings, even though keep its share of transfer students, Evergreen most of them don’t take place on college cam- State has sent staff members to communi- puses, “play beautifully in global media, from ty-college campuses to offer advising and tran- New Zealand to Morocco,” he adds. “We look script evaluations. like a bad and dangerous place, and that's a se- Adult learners represent one of the big- rious enrollment hit.” gest untapped markets — more than 30 mil- If more colleges try to recruit interna- lion Americans have some college credit but tionally, it will only in- no degree, half again crease the competition more than the 20 million for students still pre- currently enrolled. In pared to come here. Col- Thurston County, Wash. Comment from the Chronicle survey leges that have strong where Evergreen is locat- international recogni- “Big dislocation this year, ed, about 60,000 adults tion, or offer high-de- have some credit and no regionally and nationally, mand programs, can degree. “We're having probably still bank on up and down the academic what feels like weekly international students as food chain. We thought we conversations about how a growth strategy, “but I we might better serve had until 2025 to get ready, don't know that I'd hitch adult learners,” Eric Ped- my wagon to that, over but no! Hard to predict how ersen, the college’s chief all,” Staisloff says. this shakes out.” enrollment officer, says. If there is any place The college does offer for global recruiting to evening and weekend expand, Alexander says, classes, but it doesn’t it’s sub-Saharan Africa. have many online hybrid With the population of most of the developed courses, an increasingly popular medium for world rapidly aging, “it's the only region in the educating working people. world that's still producing 18-year-olds,” he Otterbein used to focus a lot of effort on says. adults through a degree-completion program Most colleges are likely to try to recruit that it offered in cooperation with Columbus closer to home, among groups of students they State University, enrolling as many as 900 stu- had previously overlooked or bypassed. Public dents in classes that met on evenings and week- four-year colleges have long served as the next ends. But the program faded away years before step for students transferring from two-year Comerford arrived in 2018. “Our traditional institutions, for example. About half of Illinois undergraduate population began to grow, so State University’s graduates arrive as transfers. as the adult program shrank, you didn't feel But some private institutions are also looking the pain of the lost revenue.” Otterbein is now at widening their funnel through transfer stu- looking to adults again to get beyond its tra- dents. Goucher is one. “We're looking at hav- ditional recruitment demographic, and hoping ing people on the enrollment side focused on to offer more graduate, certificate, and profes- the transfer segment of our potential prospec- sional development programs. tive students,” says Devereaux. Colleges may benefit from building new

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 26 the chronicle of higher education Highlights From a Chronicle Survey of Enrollment Managers COUNTING ON GROWTH TAKING ACTION Yes No I don’t know Which of the following strategies have you tried in the past five years to help bolster enrollment?

Has your institution Will your institution Put more resources into digital marketing looked to increase enroll- look to increase en- 68% ment at any point during rollment at any point Recruit more transfer students (or expand transfer pathways) the past five years during the near future 54% 2% Increase investment in student search 53% 9% 8% Increase prospective student outreach through visits to high schools 13% 50% Increase investment of resources in admitted student yield efforts 50% Expand recruiting out of state 89% 79% 50% Increase prospective student outreach through partner organizations 49% Start new academic programs out of perceived demand How would you describe your institution’s goal for the class entering in fall 2019? 47% Expand recruiting locally 44% Increase the size of the freshman class by 5% or more 31% Admit a higher number and/or proportion of applicants Maintain the size of the freshman class 30% 41%

Increase the size of the freshman class by less than 5% 26% Which of the following strategies do you plan to try or continue in the near future to help bolster enrollment? Decrease the size of the freshman class by 5% or more 5% Put more resources into digital marketing 52% Decrease the size of the freshman class by less than 5% 5% Start new academic programs out of perceived demand The institution did not have a freshman class enrollment goal 2% 39% Recruit more transfer students (or expand transfer pathways) 37% What platform did you or do you plan to focus on Increase investment of resources in admitted student yield efforts for digital marketing? 36% Email Marketing Campaigns 46% Increase prospective student outreach through visits to high schools 36% Instagram 44% Expand recruiting out of state Website Development 44% 32% Increase investment in student search Search Engine Optimization 44% 30% Increase prospective student outreach through partner organizations Facebook 41% 29% Expand recruiting internationally Youtube 29% 29% Snapchat 16% Expand recruiting locally 28% Source: From a survey conducted for The Chronicle by Maguire Associates in September 2019

the chronicle of higher education 27 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is WHICH PROGRAMS ARE EXPANDING enrollment capacity among several dif- These are the fastest-growing programs since 2010-11. ferent new types of students — in case international recruiting plummets, Net increase in programs professional programs might welcome Certificates a wave of career-changers. “To borrow Welding technology 106 a metaphor from business, it's having a balanced product portfolio,” Devereaux Emergency medical technology 84 says. Computer and information-systems While Grawe’s demographic anal- security/information assurance 74 ysis forecasts a dearth of traditional college-bound high-school graduates, Computer support specialist 73 it also points to a market that colleges Web-page, digital/multimedia, and 70 could benefit from embracing. “The information-resources design blue ocean in higher ed in undergrad is traditionally underserved populations,” Associate degrees Comerford says. Casey agrees: “First generation is Kinesiology and exercise science 79 the future, and students of color, that's the future.” Over the past 10 years, Sociology 61 McDaniel, which is located in a county that is 93 percent white, has focused on History 57 recruiting and retaining students that Health services/allied health/health sciences 56 other colleges perhaps weren’t working as hard to get. In the fall of 2007, the Health-information/medical-records technology 55 college enrolled one freshman from Bal- timore, a predominantly African-Amer- ican city about an hour away. In the fall Bachelor’s degrees of 2019, it enrolled 75, and McDaniel was two students shy of becoming a ma- Kinesiology and exercise science 130 jority-minority institution. Multi/interdisciplinary studies Casey credits the college’s recruiting 130 success, in part, to acknowledging the Registered nursing 130 barriers students of color have faced and working institutionally to remove ob- Communication 117 stacles, including increasing need-based aid, eliminating application fees, and de- Health/health-care administration/management 112 veloping a summer bridge program for rising freshmen. It also entailed building relationships with high schools and Master’s degrees organizations that serve communities of Organizational leadership color, and doing well by their students. 108 “Once you have those relationships es- Business administration and management 94 tablished, there’s trust there,” says Janelle Holmboe, vice president for enrollment Accounting 87 management and dean of admissions. “It’s very beneficial.” Educational leadership and administration 82 The board recognized that, given the trends, if the college didn’t in- Mental-health counseling 82 crease its focus on first-generation and Note: The figures represent net change, or the difference between two numbers: (A) unique institutions (for lower-income students, and students of certificate and associate-degree programs, two-year public colleges; for bachelor’s- and master’s-degree color, it wouldn’t be successful. “Look programs, four-year public and private nonprofit colleges) that reported at least one completion for the given CIP code in 2010 or 2011 but zero in both 2016 and 2017 and (B) unique institutions that reported no completions at the demographics — that's where for that CIP code in 2010 and 2011 but at least one in 2016 or 2017. America's headed,” Casey says. “If you Source: Chronicle analysis of National Center for Education Statistics data

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 28 the chronicle of higher education WHICH PROGRAMS ARE DWINDLING don't know how to attract and retain These are the fastest-shrinking programs since 2010-11. diversity, if you don't understand inclusion, you're not going to be here in Net decrease in programs the future.” Certificates Humanities/humanistic studies 97 TUITION AND COST Biological and physical sciences 90 About 40 percent of respondents in the Chronicle survey indicated that Mathematics 83 their institutions had raised their tuition-discount rates in the past Medical transcription 82 five years to boost enrollment. Only about 19 percent said they planned to Art/art studies 80 raise them again in the future. That difference jibes with a common view about the pricing of college: The Associate degrees high-tuition, high-discount model is Accounting technology and bookkeeping 66 unsustainable for many institutions. Nearly every year, most colleges Legal administrative assistant/secretary 48 raise tuition in order to help cover increased costs. It may only go up 4 Teacher assistant/aide 43 percent, but 4 percent of, say, $50,000 adds up to an extra $2,000 of cost to Executive assistant/executive secretary 41 students and families. Over the last Electrical-, electronic-, and communications- decade, many colleges have also in- engineering technology 40 creased their tuition-discount rates at a steady pace, plowing more and more of the money they collect each Bachelor’s degrees year back into institutional aid for Speech communication and rhetoric 49 top students they especially want to attract, or to enroll more students Computer and information sciences 47 with financial need. Each year, tuition keeps rising, and for many insti- Business teacher education 47 tutions, revenue falters or falls. Tuition discounting has begun Rhetoric and composition 39 to become a factor even at public universities. As state support pancaked Management information systems 38 after the recession and has risen only fitfully, tuition rates are increasing and the competition for top students Master’s degrees — or, sometimes, any students — has Management information systems 23 increased. In the early 2000s, Illi- nois State University offered about Physical therapy 23 $500,000 to potential students each Computer and information sciences year, says Jana Albrecht, associate and support services 14 vice president for enrollment man- Public-administration and 11 agement. Now it offers about $32 social-service professions million. Public health/community nurse/nursing 11 But it is at private institutions, which function without even a modest Note: The figures represent net change, or the difference between two numbers: (A) unique institutions (for certificate and associate-degree programs, two-year public colleges; for bachelor’s- and master’s-degree programs, backstop of state support, that tuition four-year public and private nonprofit colleges) that reported at least one completion for the given CIP code in discounting has created the most pre- 2010 or 2011 but zero in both 2016 and 2017 and (B) unique institutions that reported no completions for that carious predicaments. Staisloff, the CIP code in 2010 and 2011 but at least one in 2016 or 2017. Source: Chronicle analysis of National Center for Education Statistics data

the chronicle of higher education 29 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is consultant, says he knows of several colleges missed your class by 10, 20, 30, whatever the with discount rates of 60 percent or more for number was.” incoming freshman. Mitchell, the consultant, Utica’s reset was, in fact, too successful the says he knows of institutions where discount first year. More than 680 new freshman showed rates have risen past 80 percent. These colleges up for fall classes in 2016, almost 100 more stu- have students, and may not look like they’re in dents than the college had planned. Utica had trouble, he notes: “The grass will be cut and to rent rooms in a hotel a mile and a half from the dorms will be full campus to house all of its the day they close.” new class. A coordinated strate- But the reset, and gy can make a difference. Comment from the Chronicle survey the strategy surround- At Utica College, in up- ing it, has paid off. Un- “With state institutions state New York, total dergraduate enrollment enrollment had grown having their tuition pegged to is now 2,503, up from steadily over the previ- inflation, it has reinforced the 2,190 in fall 2015. The ous decade, but admin- freshman discount rate stance of many families that istrators were concerned has dropped from 61 about other numbers. In they want the least expensive, percent in fall of 2015 2014, total cost of atten- best option. We are continu- to 27 percent in 2019. dance was about $42,000 With the lower tuition, ally being asked to match out- a year, but the average federal and state finan- family income among of-pocket expenses with state cial aid meets more of students enrolled was or lower-ranked institutions.” tuition costs, leading to only about $68,000. As at a decrease in loan debt. most colleges, tuition was Net tuition revenue rose still ticking upward every from about $32 million year. Families on the un- in 2015-16 to $55 million derside of that average income “were just writing in 2018-19. us off based on sticker price alone,” says Jeffery T. Colleges have to be careful about their Gates, senior vice president for student life and price points, however. “Some students and enrollment. their families see price as a proxy for quality,” Many Utica students from less affluent says Comerford, the Otterbein president. “The families who did attend were taking out loans, $40,000 school must be better than the $30,000 to the point that the college landed on U.S. school.” That’s nonsense, he adds, but families News & World Report's list of the colleges where “don't understand tuition discounting, and how students have the most debt. those sticker prices are just, frankly, made up.” The college began a holistic look at its pric- Otterbein’s undergraduate enrollment ing structure, and at what it offered and how. In peaked at about 3,200 students just after the 2015, it decided to reset its tuition from $34,000 recession, fell as low as 2,700, and has climbed to less than $20,000. But it didn’t just reset tu- back to 2,950. The university has rebuilt enroll- ition. It offered new programs in neuroscience, ment, in part, by focusing more of its recruit- criminal-intelligence analysis, and sports man- ment efforts on first-generation and lower-in- agement on its main campus. It began offering come students — a strategy that comes with health-care programs through three locations its own challenges. “The problem is, even if in Florida. It introduced new programs online. you're in the middle of the pack on price, your Tuition resets have acquired a fraught rep- first-generation and low-income student will utation. In the short term, they can bring in not understand how financial aid works and see more students, but they can also reduce net tu- that sticker price and be scared off.” ition revenue. In the long-term, tuition tends In 2018, Otterbein offered to meet the full to creep back up to where it started. “When financial need of any student eligible for feder- tuition resets don't work, it's when they are al Pell Grants. Last year’s incoming freshman one-offs and not part of a strategy,” Gates says. class was 22 percent bigger, and most of that “You're just doing it as a knee-jerk because you growth was among Pell-eligible students. But

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 30 the chronicle of higher education even Pell eligibility isn’t always clear to fami- lighted a list of private colleges ranked by the lies, so this year the university offered to meet amount of money they spend to educate each full need for any student whose family income student. At the top of the list were elite institu- is $60,000 or less. “Just trying to make it as tions that spend $100,000 or more per student. simple as possible,” Comerford says. “For the moment, they can afford to do this be- Recruiting more lower-income students is cause they have endowments,” he says. not only a social good, it can also make finan- In the middle of the list lay a strata of cial sense. “In a great ironic twist, our discount colleges that spend $45,000 to $55,000 per rate is much, much higher for those students at student, “many of them name brands,” Schall the very high end of the merit scale,” he adds. says. Enrollment at some of those institu- In the end, colleges may get more net tuition tions has flattened or declined, “but they're revenue out of some of their least affluent stu- still spending what they spent per student, or dents. more, as they did when they were healthy” Lawrence M. Schall, president of Ogletho- and are running structural deficits as a result. rpe University, in Atlanta, doesn’t understand In the end, it doesn’t matter what their dis- the focus on a college’s sticker price. “If only count rate is if they’re not bringing in enough 10 students are paying sticker price, why are money to cover what they spend. (Oglethor- people so obsessed with it?” he asks. He also pe’s overall discount rate is about 60 percent.) doesn’t care about a college’s overall discount When Oglethorpe had 800 students, it rate, which he calls “irrelevant.” spent about $40,000 per student per year. Now Two other numbers matter more to him: it enrolls more than 1,200 students and spends “What are you spending per student, and about $24,000 per student per year. Even with what's your net tuition revenue per student, and the university’s enrollment success, “if we were are they sustainable?” spending just $4,000 or $5,000 more per stu- When he arrived at Oglethorpe in 2005, dent, we'd be in deficit,” Schall says. The in- Schall found an institution in trouble. En- stitution currently has a $4-million operating rollment had sunk to about 800 students, the surplus. discount rate was at 54 Controlling costs percent, and the uni- comes with costs of its versity was running a own. About 80 percent $4.5-million deficit on of classes at Oglethorpe Comment from the Chronicle survey an annual budget of $20 are taught by tenured, million. It was put on “Our biggest challenge tenure-track, or full-time warning by its accreditor is the middle-income contract faculty, but fac- for financial instability. ulty are paid less than at He asked the faculty to student. We have to raise some of its competitors. tear up their contract, left more money to meet more “That's not an easy issue open positions unfilled, need for that demographic.” to manage, morale-wise, and cut some staff pay, because everybody would among other cost-saving like to be paid more,” measures. “I did dramat- Schall says. “But we're ic things early on, or we doing eight tenure-track would have closed,” Schall says. hires this year, which is a whole lot more hires As Oglethorpe recovered, aided by Atlan- than most schools our size.” ta’s boomtown status, Schall kept the budget Schall stresses than none of what he did was lean. The student-to-faculty ratio at the uni- easy. He arrived in the middle of a crisis, but at versity is 16-to-1; at other private institutions, most colleges it’s going to be hard for incoming it may be more like 6-to-1. Schall has one as- leaders to make big changes and survive. The sistant, not two or three. Carefully controlling bottom line remains the same. “You've got to the university’s growth has helped him control align your expenses with your revenues on a costs. sustainable basis, long-term,” he says. “If your For a presentation he gave at a Council of overall net tuition is not climbing at 3 to 5 per- Independent Colleges meeting, Schall high- cent a year, you're in trouble.”

the chronicle of higher education 31 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is SHIFTING PROGRAMS said they planned to start new programs in the For most of the 20th century, most col- future. leges offered essentially the same academic If it were as simple as adding hot programs, programs. If you wanted to major in history there’d be little need for this report. But not or German, you could do so at the small liber- every program is a good fit for every institu- al-arts college in your hometown or the public tion. Take, for example, health care. “I think comprehensive university down the road, or at right now you can't go wrong [with health care] almost any other four-year institution in the in the U.S. because the demand is enormous,” country. says Alexander, of Georgetown. “Every college The 21st century has spawned new fields, in the U.S. right now could expand its medical new modes of learning, and new demands, and stuff, and they would not suffer.” colleges are still adapting. Big Data needs an- But not every hot major fits every insti- alysts, and the connected world needs cyber- tution. Nursing programs, in particular, are security specialists to protect it. A huge wave expensive to start, and, due to the demand of aging baby boomers for instructors, expen- is driving a desperate sive to staff, making demand for health-care them difficult for re- workers. For good or Comment from the Chronicle survey source-strapped institu- for ill, many humanities tions to develop. majors have lost luster “Some institutions will get Plus the major of for college students. smaller, and it’s better to do so the moment often just doesn’t match some in- Many students expect to willingly, with a rightsized ap- be able to learn the way stitutional missions. they do so many other proach. I expect we will soon As a public liberal-arts things — online. see more colleges and uni- college, Evergreen isn’t going to open a school Adapting academ- versities develop enrollment ic offerings to the 21st of nursing, says Peder- century and its students plans that call for smaller, not sen, the chief enroll- is not only critical to larger freshman classes, and ment officer, though it is looking at offering some colleges’ continued rel- these plans will require some evance, it’s a linchpin “mission-appropriate” of their survival — es- strategic reallocation of insti- new programs, such as pecially in the face of tutional resources. Growth is community health and psychology. daunting enrollment no longer the singular answer challenges. Elite private Some institutions institutions and state to what ails higher education.” are moving beyond the flagship universities traditional categories, might be able to afford however. Otterbein add- to maintain majors that ed an engineering pro- attract so few students gram four years ago. that they qualify as boutique, but most insti- “That's quite a move for a liberal-arts college,” tutions will have to try to make the most of says Comerford, the president. their limited resources. In many cases, that will Some avenues that have proved successful mean cutting other programs. “You don't have for some universities may no longer be open. more money to spend every year,” says Dever- Institutions like Southern New Hampshire, eaux, the Goucher president. “You're making Arizona State, and Western Governors Uni- choices.” versities have built huge online enrollments Colleges are adding new programs to the by catering to working adults, while brand- mix. About 47 percent of respondents to the name colleges offer online MBAs and other Chronicle survey indicated that they had added executive education. Any college that hopes to new programs out of perceived demand over build an online empire now would be compet- the past five years. But only about 39 percent ing against institutions with well-established and well-funded programs, says Mitchell, the

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 32 the chronicle of higher education GOUCHER COLLEGE Kent Devereaux, president of Goucher College: “You don’t have more money to spend every year. You’re making choices.”

consultant. “You're going to get killed unless it's local online programming for a particular program that reaches the work-force needs of a Comment from the Chronicle survey particular select region of the country.” “Every institution will need to That doesn’t mean that online programs don’t matter. “As a surfer, I've realized you find a balance of recruitment can't catch a wave that's past you,” says Casey, and retention as we enter the the McDaniel president. “We're not going to next 10 years. Not all be Southern New Hampshire University.” But McDaniel is building up its online programs institutions can grow. Some because students expect it, especially for grad- will find greater success uate education, and it does help with revenue. flattening new student But the fact remains that, as presidents are wont to say and many faculty members enrollment and focusing on are loath to hear, “you can't be all things to all retention and graduation.” people at all times in all ways,” says Casey. If a college has limited resources and wants to add

the chronicle of higher education 33 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is programs — and there are no rich donors in As planned, many of the cost savings sight — it will probably have to eliminate or from eliminating the majors will be divert- reduce others. ed into eight new programs going through Cutting majors or entire programs — es- the process of approval, some of which were pecially those that sit close to the heart of the repackaged from existing majors to be more traditional liberal arts — has raised outcry ev- appealing for students. Mathematics, for ex- erywhere it’s been tried. At the University of ample, will spin off actuarial science and ap- Wisconsin at Stevens Point, a 2017 proposal to plied mathematics, both of which will ideally close 13 majors led to a vote of no-confidence feed a proposed master’s program in data an- in the president and provost by faculty and alytics. Since nearly half of sociology majors staff members. (The university announced in were focusing on criminal justice, it made 2019 that no majors would be shuttered after sense to create a criminal-justice major. all.) But with waning demand for many exist- “This is a generation of students that, for- ing programs and limited resources to launch tunately or unfortunately, they want to see new ones, college lead- a major that looks like ers may feel they have the name of the thing no other choice. in life they want to do,” About three years Comment from the Chronicle survey Casey says. ago, McDaniel College Cutting programs, began a strategic-plan- “Families often do not unlike so many other ning process that in- derstand net expenses. They things about running volved reevaluating its a college, must be han- receive a merit award upon operations. It looked dled with care. When at streamlining opera- acceptance from institutions José Antonio Bowen, tions, and found a way with high tuition and high the former president of to cut its annual energy Goucher, announced discount rates and stop work- bill by about $500,000. in 2018 that the col- It looked at administra- ing with institutions that may lege was cutting about tive efficiency, and cut be more financially feasible a dozen majors, the a vice president posi- resulting outrage was with a lower tuition and a tion from the cabinet, predictable. But some of among other moves. It lower discount rate. The net the troubles that arose looked at its curricu- comparison is vital, and fami- from the timing of the lum, and a faculty com- announcement took lies do not often enough come mittee examined data leaders at the college by about courses and stu- through the whole process.” surprise. dents and recommend- The mathematics ed that the college cut major at Goucher had five majors. The sub- seen declining enroll- jects, including French, ment for many years, German, and music, “are critically important so it made sense to eliminate it. “The idea for the breadth of learning,” Casey says. “But was to replace that with the new integrated there's not a demand for people to be majoring data analytics,” says Devereaux, the presi- in these things.” dent. The problem was that the math major The plan to end the majors, announced wound down before the new program could in early 2019, drew predictable outrage. “My be approved by the Maryland Higher Edu- head was on a stake,” Casey says. “Constit- cation Commission, which oversees policies uent groups were in rebellion — student for public and private colleges in the state. groups, alumni groups, faculty. ‘Run him out The analytics program is now up and run- of town on a rail. He's destroying the liberal ning, and a new engineering science program arts. Is this the end of our future?’” The con- is rolling out next fall, but “we had a year lag troversy only dwindled when the college en- time,” Devereaux says. “That was a tactical rolled its largest ever class the following fall. mistake.”

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 34 the chronicle of higher education WHAT’S AHEAD support of the state behind them, so they’re less likely to face such existential questions, Beyond the demographic data, the future though institutions in Georgia and Vermont for colleges is hard to predict, especially giv- have merged. But being an arm of the state en some of the pressures now bearing down can make it difficult for public colleges to on academe. adapt quickly. Take application-fee waivers. The recent decision by the National As- Pedersen, at Evergreen State, wanted to make sociation for College Admission Counseling it easier for lower-income students to apply has raised the specter of colleges poaching by dropping the $50 fee. “Seems like a very enrolled students from other institutions. simple topic to discuss and make strategic de- According to Pedersen, of Evergreen State, cisions about,” he says. But it turns out the the chatter among his colleagues after the fees are rooted in state legislative code, so decision was that they will uphold the re- he’s waiting for a review from the attorney scinded rules, “but general’s office. at some point, some- While state gov- body's going to break ernments can seem ranks, and it's going Comment from the Chronicle survey rigid and immovable, to be an administrator things can change at a cash-strapped, tu- “With a shrinking middle quickly. Pedersen lauds ition-driven place,” he class with a lack of access to Washington’s support for its public colleges, says. “It's just awful to discretionary income and/or think about, but it's the but adds, “we're not time we're in now.” the reluctance to pay, colleges fools.” A significant As enrollment and universities should be change in the gover- nor’s mansion or the challenges ramp up very sensitive to the contrac- at many colleges, the legislature, and the pressure may mount tion of available market share system could see the to consider a merger, among students who are able kind of deep cuts to state support that have sale, or closure. Mitch- to afford to pay for college. ell suggests that college roiled the University of leaders not panic if the Tuition resets and/or tuition Alaska system. possibility arises. After freezes are a good first step With all the uncertainty in the air, some all, mergers and other toward addressing this prob- similar arrangements colleges are betting are nothing new. As lem, but colleges should do that what has brought Mitchell notes, he was more if they expect to regain them this far will sustain them into the once the president of market share.” Washington & Jeffer- new century — with son College, and “that probable tweaks. The was a merger. The 19th on-campus residential century is full of stories experience is “the heart of mergers.” of a place like Otterbein,” says Comerford, If the need to look for a merger or con- the president. “There is a bet that we're mak- sider closure is even a remote possibility, it ing that there will continue to be demand must be taken seriously, and prepared for from traditional-age students for that kind of — mentally and otherwise — as a possible experience. outcome. “Usually when a college closes, “It is not the most efficient way to do ed- the faculty say, We didn't know. Well, why?” ucation,” he adds. Small classes, tenured pro- Mitchell says. Or the trustees say, We had no fessors, and campus athletics “are all more choice “but to do this because we're fiduciary expensive than putting a bunch of students stewards of this place. Well, you should have in an online course. But we happen to think known that five years ago.” that, for the population we're working with, Public institutions have the nominal it's better.”

the chronicle of higher education 35 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is SECTION 3

Advanced Cinematography is offered at Oglethorpe U., which raised enrollment by matching in-state tuition for applicants with good credentials.

OGLETHORPE U.

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 36 the chronicle of higher education How Colleges Are Responding

olleges that are planning for the demographic future in the next decade are not waiting to take action. They are taking steps now — analyzing student demand and changing their mix of academic programs, seeking out new student populations, and carefully tracking their costs. What’s clear is that no one strategy will work wonders — most colleges will need several. As Scott Steinberg, vice president for university admissions at the University of New England, puts it: “One of the reasons for UNE’s recruitment and overall success is our diversified enrollment portfolio.” In this next section, we examine how 10 colleges are trying Ca variety of strategies to get ahead of the enrollment crisis.

the chronicle of higher education 37 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is CASE STUDY HIRAM COLLEGE

STRATEGY: Lower the sticker A Liberal-Arts College Adds price and emphasize career preparation Free Summer Courses and Lowers Its Tuition ncreasing enrollment in the tuition savings.” Or to put it another way: Midwest is stunningly difficult,” Students are worried about getting jobs says Lori E. Varlotta, president after they graduate — and their parents of Hiram College, located in a are worried about that, too, in addition to rural town between Cleveland being concerned about the soaring cost of “Iand Youngstown. With just under 900 higher education. For Hiram, emphasizing full-time undergraduates on a campus career preparation while cutting tuition 35 that could easily accommodate 1,250, the percent seemed like a good combination. liberal-arts institution is “holding steady at Varlotta says that the two free sum- a time when we need to increase,” she says. mer courses and the internship possi- So Hiram has made another in a series of bilities move Hiram toward offering a enrollments bets. three-year degree, especially for students It had already branded a curricu- who come to the campus with Advanced lum reorganization as “the New Liberal Placement credits. For those not in a rush Arts" — it even trademarked the term to graduate, the summer courses might — and then followed up with another let an athlete take a lighter course load trademarked program, “Tech and Trek,” during a busy sports season, or allow a which gave every student both an iPad theater major to spend extra time work- Pro and a pair of hiking boots (the goal ing on a show. being “mindful” use of technology). The college also hopes the summer Next it announced a tuition reset, offerings will help improve retention starting in 2020, from $37,710 to $24,500, by keeping students who need summer allowing it to say Hiram is “one of the courses on campus. Currently, some stu- best-priced four-year private colleges dents take classes elsewhere — their local within and beyond Ohio.” The college community colleges, for instance — and will further sweeten the deal by mak- end up not returning to Hiram. Varlotta ing two summer courses free for each adds that students have told her the free student, eliminating $2,350 in mandatory summer courses will help them avoid fees, and — thanks to a generous trust- “summer slide.” ee — offering paid, for-credit summer Still, the tuition cut is the headline. internships and research opportunities. “We did a lot of research on resets — The latest changes, Varlotta says, 14 months’ worth,” says Varlotta. “We are “based as much on augmentation of decided the current high-price/high-dis- learning and career development as on count model is broken.” The sticker price

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 38 the chronicle of higher education Lori Varlotta (center), president of Hiram College, confers with other campus leaders in the dining hall. They are making major changes to raise enrollment.

MICHAEL F. MCELROY FOR THE CHRONICLE can intimidate families who have never been the right size for an institution She credits her cabinet members sent a student off to college and have of 1,100 or 1,200 undergraduates, but for proposing and honing the recent no experience with the complex finan- not for a college of 900. Plus, Hiram’s changes, and a five-member team of cial-aid process. “We’re hoping that academic offerings were out of sync trustees for vetting them. But will the middle-class families will see a $24,500 with students’ interests. After closely changes make a difference in a time of sticker price and say, That’s pretty examining all the data it could find, extraordinary competition for appli- reasonable,” she says. “We didn’t want Hiram cut 11 faculty positions and re- cants? Varlotta says Hiram modeled them to see our sticker price and configured its curriculum, eliminating the financial impacts of the tuition immediately think, I can’t afford this some majors and combining others, or reset and additional offerings as well private college.” making them minors — and affecting as it could, but since no other college The tuition reset and other recent only 18 students. she knew of had tried this combination changes come after its lenders had But the college has also been adding of sticker-price cuts and program addi- forced Hiram to reduce costs signifi- programs in areas where it sees demand, tions, the predictions involved a fair cantly. Starting in 2014, the college such as sports management, integrated amount of guesswork. began a series of cuts in administrative exercise science, criminal justice, and “We’ve modeled it so the first few staff and then in the faculty — the design. These have been folded into years are revenue-neutral,” she says. latter after an intense self-study led by the traditional liberal-arts curriculum. “Hopefully, through volume we’ll Judith Muyskens, the dean and vice “College presidents want the liberal arts be revenue-positive in the second or president for academic affairs. to survive,” Varlotta says. “You have to third year. Hopefully, we’ll have more The faculty, Muyskens says, had figure out the both/and.” students.”

the chronicle of higher education 39 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is CASE STUDY U. OF NEW ENGLAND

STRATEGY: Develop distinctive Maine’s Largest Private programs and focus on online growth University Defies the Odds ot only is the University of New strategically on the other options the England located in the region of university could offer. “We had pro- the country that’s being hit the moted ourselves as a health-sciences hardest by the student demo- university,” he says, “and I found that graphic crunch, but it’s also in narrative to be far too limiting.” Maine, the state at the forefront Herbert says he emphasized Nof the crisis. Maine’s population of 1.3 expanding the marine-science pro- million is the nation’s oldest, with a grams, a natural source of strength median age of 44.2; the national medi- not least because the Biddeford cam- an is 37.7. The number of high-school pus’s marine-science center is located graduates in the state is projected to right by the Atlantic Ocean. UNE continue to fall, by about 14 percent developed a marine-entrepreneurship through 2032. program and a marine-affairs program And yet UNE has been able to defy to supplement its existing offerings and the odds and to grow, through a strate- launched a new graduate program, a gic mix of new or expanded programs master’s degree in ocean food systems. and a focused online presence. With Marine sciences are now the college’s campuses in Biddeford and Portland, most rapid area of growth, with en- Maine; a campus in Tangier, Morocco; rollment more than doubling. “About and a growing online division, the uni- five years ago on the undergraduate versity has a total of 6,000 degree-seek- side, we enrolled 44 new students,” ing students. And in 2019, it welcomed says Scott Steinberg, vice president for one of the largest undergraduate classes university admissions. “This year we in UNE history, with 817 incoming enrolled 102.” The new master’s pro- students, versus 749 the year before. gram enrolls nine students. After a decade of growth, Maine’s Likewise, says Herbert, UNE is largest private university was not strug- experiencing growth in established gling when James Herbert began his programs such as business, animal presidency in July 2017, but it was at “a behavior, and neuroscience. natural plateau,” he says. “We did need Distinctiveness is key in all of to step back and decide what was next.” these programs, says Herbert. “We Herbert sought to walk a tightrope need to build on our assets, but also to between playing to the university’s look where the market is.” In his first core strengths, its health-profession address to the faculty, Herbert issued a programs — which include the only challenge to members of each campus medical school and only dental school program to define who they were, to in Maine, a college of pharmacy, delineate how they were distinctive and a robust slate of undergraduate relative to their biggest competitors pre-health offerings — and building — and if they weren’t, to describe how

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 40 the chronicle of higher education they planned to become distinctive. online. We have to have concierge that spirit of curricular nimbleness The online division has been an- service, provide an excellent prod- and message of distinctiveness will other factor in UNE’s growth. “One uct, and we have to have a product allow UNE to keep growing and of the reasons for UNE’s recruitment that is in a niche, that the market draw from a wider geographic area. and overall success is our diversified really needs.” Ten years ago, 70 percent of UNE’s enrollment portfolio,” says Steinberg. With online students consti- undergraduate students came from In addition to the undergraduate and tuting about 30 percent of its total Maine, and 30 percent came from graduate campus, there is the gradu- degree-seeking student enrollment elsewhere — or “away,” as Mainers ate online division, which comprises (there are 1,769 degree-seeking stu- like to say. Now, says Herbert, it’s 27 six core degree programs, four certif- dents in its online programs, with an percent from Maine, and 73 percent icate programs, and a health-sciences additional 2,066 non-degree online from elsewhere — and while the prerequisite program. students), the university is looking biggest percentage of those students UNE does online differently into other new online offerings. are from New England, the univer- than many places, according to “You always have to be bringing sity is increasingly attracting stu- Herbert. “The last thing we want something new to the market,” dents from the Mid-Atlantic region. to do is just launch a generic MBA Herbert says. “We’ve organized our Herbert says he was encouraged program,” he says. “We want to be online offerings in a way that allows by the size of this year’s class, but sure it’s something we can do really us to ramp them up fairly quickly, “that one data point does not make well. We’re not going to be able and likewise to bring them down a trend. I’m optimistic, and I think to compete on price point, with fairly quickly if need be.” it’s likely to continue, but we’re not the lowest-priced places out there Looking ahead, Herbert says, resting on our laurels.”

The University of New England emphasizes its marine-science programs, a natural source of strength for a campus located on the Atlantic coast.

U. OF NEW ENGLAND

the chronicle of higher education 41 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is CASE STUDY SAINT LEO U.

STRATEGY: Emphasize Florida’s Oldest Roman affordability, access, and acceleration Catholic University Aims Big ocated 30 minutes north of Tampa early player in online education, Saint in Pasco County, Fla., Saint Leo Leo started its program in 1998 and now University has a 186-acre campus offers more than 40 online programs. dotted with palm trees and mis- The university’s total enrollment, includ- sion-style buildings, home to 21 ing all of these divisions, is almost 20,000. percent of its student body. The But when Jeffrey D. Senese became Lother 79 percent is either online or in president of the 130-year old college in more than 30 education centers, located 2018, on-campus enrollment was declin- on military bases, at state colleges, or as ing, and international-student enrollment, stand-alone campuses in seven states. An while stable, comprised mainly athletes.

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 42 the chronicle of higher education Hoping to turn things around, ment. “But I said, ‘It’s doable. We just allows students to earn up to 40 college Senese brought Senthil Kumar on have to change the culture. We’ve got credits by passing exams on college-lev- board — the two had worked together to be student-centric.’” el knowledge. And the university’s 3 a decade earlier at Johnson & Wales In August 2019, Saint Leo wel- + 1 Accelerated Degree program, says University — to oversee both interna- comed to campus the biggest class in its Kumar, enables qualified students to tional-student and campus enrollment. history: Eight hundred and fifteen new obtain their undergraduate and mas- Over lunch at a local restaurant, Senese freshmen and 186 transfer students — ter’s degree in just four years. shared some campus enrollment num- for a total of 1,001. That’s a 45-percent Another key strategy, says Kumar, bers with Kumar, who responded, “We increase over the previous year, which was having Saint Leo adopt a test-op- can blow these out of the park.” He had a total of 690 students. tional policy and shift its admissions scribbled down his projections for the That napkin with the scribbled pro- policy to focus on unweighted GPA and next few years on a napkin, including a jections? Kumar is planning to frame it. AP scores. “Many institutions use the prediction for 2019: He wanted to reach The university was able to meet its weighted GPAs, which include bumps for 1,000 new students. goal, says Kumar, by delivering Saint for Honors and AP courses, regardless Kumar, now the vice president for Leo’s message of “affordability, accessi- of student performance in the class,” he university campus enrollment man- bility, and acceleration.” says. “We moved to unweighted GPAs agement, admits that his ambition was To help families understand to allow full accessibility for all students initially met with some skepticism on campus financing options, they began to attend Saint Leo.” campus, from the enrollment team to throwing Fafsa Nights at various Finally, Saint Leo also saw a rise in the faculty to the accounting depart- locations throughout the region — international students, from 86 in 2018 open not just to students applying to to 181. In 2019, the university opened Saint Leo but to all. Kumar’s team also offices in Beijing, Ho Chi Minh City, Saint Leo University reached out to families whose students and Mumbai to help with student re- this year welcomed had completed 90 to 95 percent of their cruitment, and it partners with Educa- the biggest class in Fafsa filings — normally an unfinished tionUSA, a State Department network its history after Fafsa application just results in an email of international advising centers. Saint taking steps that reminder — and walked them through Leo will also match government schol- included opening completion. arships, making tuition more afford- offices to recruit Saint Leo offered several new able for international students. Saint students in Beijing and other Asian cities. scholarships, including a 50-percent Leo’s Bridge Program is another asset, tuition discount to students who had enabling international students to get earned an associate degree. And the their degrees in four years by allowing university also gave out “microscholar- them to incorporate their English-lan- ships.” Students could earn $250 toward guage requirements as electives toward their Saint Leo tuition by attending their degrees, rather than by tacking on an admissions event — say an Open additional time in a separate program. House or Admitted Students Day — Looking ahead, President Senese and could earn $1,000 by attending says he wants to expand every division four admissions events. Sixty percent of — online, the centers, and campus students who enrolled in 2019 came to enrollment, which now stands at about at least one of these events. 2,300 students. He and Kumar are Additionally, the admissions office shooting for 4,000 to 4,500 students on began to educate students and their campus by 2024. Senese is not shy about families about pathways to get through stating his ambitions for his institution: Saint Leo quickly — by focusing on “The biggest Catholic institution is opportunities like dual-enrollment DePaul. I want to beat them. I want to programs and the CLEP program, be able to say we’re the biggest Catholic SAINT LEO U. which is run by the College Board and university in the United States.”

the chronicle of higher education 43 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is CASE STUDY SLIPPERY ROCK U.

STRATEGY: Sharply expand A Pennsylvania State the number of undergraduate and graduate programs University Bucks the Trend to raise enrollment

lippery Rock University, which It put in place 24 new undergraduate affectionately goes by the name and graduate programs in a six-year peri- “The Rock,” is one of the few od, which “is unheard of at a school of our campuses in the Pennsylvania size,” Yale says. It also moved some courses State System of Higher Educa- from traditional classrooms to online. tion that haven’t seen a major The efforts worked. The number of Senrollment drop in recent years. students is almost back to the 2010 level, It has certainly faced challenges, like with a total enrollment of 8,806 in 2019. many other public universities in the “We took a really hard look at our Northeast — most importantly, diminishing state support and shrinking numbers of high-school seniors. And it has the added disadvantage of being located in a rural area 50 miles north of Pittsburgh. The number of high-school seniors in the region started decreasing in 2011, and after 10 years of gains, Slippery Rock started seeing its enrollment slip, says Amanda Yale, the chief enrollment management officer. In 2010, its total undergraduate and graduate enrollment was 8,852. By 2013, it had dropped to 8,347. “We had a dip, and we said, We’ve got to turn this around because high-school demographics are not changing,” Yale says. “This was not new to us, because in the 1990s, we turned around a nine-year enrollment decline to 10 years of enrollment progress. But we also weren’t fighting the demographics then.” The effort to reverse the trend began under one president — Cheryl J. Norton, who served from 2012 to 2017 — and continued under her successor, William J. Behre. The university concluded that the answer was to go after new markets, especially in its graduate programs. That meant expanding its academic portfolio.

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 44 the chronicle of higher education undergraduate and graduate program offer a bachelor’s in musical theater, be- has increased by 91 percent, from a offerings,” Yale says. “We did market cause a planned performing arts center 10-year low of 699 in 2012 to 1,338 research in western Pennsylvania, be- was set to open on campus in 2020. in 2019. And in 2017, Slippery Rock cause as a regional institution, we were Master’s programs including had a record-high enrollment of looking to provide back to our constit- accountancy, music therapy, and health freshmen — 1,597. Over the past two uency. Based on that we decided on this informatics are now available to stu- years, there have been small declines, portfolio of programs.” dents, and the university added doctoral with 1,580 first-year students entering Three of the new offerings are degrees in special education, occupa- in 2019. Some 37 percent of the new accelerated pre-professional programs tional therapy, and physical therapy, freshmen are first-generation college — physical therapy, physician assistant, with one in educational leadership and students, and 34 percent are eligible and occupational therapy — that allow administration to start next year. for Pell Grants. students to earn an undergraduate and “Six years ago, we had 24 graduate Besides attracting new students master’s degree in a total of five or six programs and now we have 40,” Yale while other universities are struggling years. In 2017 Slippery Rock also start- says. The funding for the new pro- to stem their losses, the new programs ed offering four engineering programs; grams, she says, came from resource are also strengthening Slippery Rock’s it had never offered that field before. reallocation and faculty retirements. brand, Yale says. The institution was While many of the new under- Since 2012 the population of part-time founded as Slippery Rock State Nor- graduate programs focus on aspects of and full-time faculty has grown from mal School, and it was long known as a security, marketing, or wellness, the 433 to 488, she adds. teacher’s college. Now that reputation is university also will, for the first time, The number of graduate students shifting. Twenty years ago, most Slippery Rock students were in the College of An accelerated pro- Education, Yale says. “Now it’s the Col- gram in occupation- lege of Health, Engineering and Sci- al therapy, among ence,” where almost half of all incoming other new offerings, freshmen are enrolled. has helped increase Retention is also a major focus; enrollment at the freshman retention rate in 2018 Slippery Rock was a record 83 percent — 18 percent University as it is higher than it was 20 years ago. And the “fighting the demographics,” as one four-year graduation rate since then has official put it. more than doubled to 55 percent over that same time period. About 800 to 850 of the students at Slippery Rock are transfers, a number university officials would love to increase. Besides partnering with local community colleges, about five years ago the university started offering financial aid for transfers. Yale says her hope is that the university will continue to see small increases in student enrollment, but “it’s not going to be dramatic. The key is to hold steady. It isn’t just about the freshmen, or the graduates, or the transfers. It’s all of them together.” MIKE SCHNELLE

the chronicle of higher education 45 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is CASE STUDY LASELL U.

STRATEGY: Move from college to Massachusetts Campus university status and focus on graduate programs and Banks on Graduate and affordability International Students he sweatshirts in the bookstore still The “university” name could also say Lasell College, and only one of carry more weight with online graduate the red brick signs at the entrance students in other states who aren’t famil- to campus has been replaced, but iar with the regional institution, Alex- Lasell College is now officially ander says. His goal is to grow graduate Lasell University. student enrollment from 500 students to TThe change in status, which took ef- 700 by 2022. fect in August of 2019, makes the one-time Compared with many of its private- women’s seminary the latest in a string college peers, Lasell is doing quite well. of Massachusetts institutions that have Since Alexander took office in 2007, over- traded “college” for “university” in the all enrollment has increased by 50 percent, hopes of attracting the international and from 1,400 to 2,100, and the budget has graduate students they’ll need to survive more than doubled, from $35 million to an ongoing decline in the number of high- $89 million. “Our investment in the grad- school graduates. uate- and professional-studies program In China and parts of Europe and has been a driving force in Lasell’s growth the Middle East, the “university” label along with the expanded undergraduate conveys greater prestige than “college,” academic offerings, specifically in the says Ben Waxman, the CEO of Intead, a sciences,” he says. company that helps colleges with global The campus sits on 53 acres in one branding. “The term ‘college’ suggests of Boston’s priciest suburbs, on land that vocational, profession-specific schools,” he the real-estate blog Bisnow valued at says, “but ‘university’ translates directly. $202 million. But prime real estate wasn’t Boston University is the same as Beijing enough to save neighboring Mount Ida University. Everybody gets that.” and Newbury Colleges, which closed At Lasell, where roughly 7 percent their doors in 2018 and 2019, and Alexan- of undergraduates and 12 percent of der says it would be “silly to not be wor- graduate students are international, the ried about undergraduate enrollment” president, Michael Alexander, hopes the going forward. move will help the college retain more Between 2013 and 2032, the number of them. He estimates that the college of students graduating from Massachu- loses about 40 percent of its internation- setts high schools is expected to fall by al students to universities in Boston and nearly 10,000, mirroring a trend that will elsewhere each year. be seen throughout New England, accord-

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 46 the chronicle of higher education ing to the Western Interstate Commis- the past 11 years in Massachusetts, to $38,000. This year, 105 freshmen sion for Higher Education. The most private colleges Bay Path, Bentley, and signed up for the program. precipitous drop is coming after 2025. Western New England have all made Alexander has also forged an agree- Massachusetts, which boasts a the switch to university status; only one ment with Encore Boston Harbor, the disproportionate number of colleges for — Bay Path — has a seen a significant new casino on the Mystic riverfront, to a state its size, is likely to be seriously uptick in students, with graduate-stu- educate its employees on site. affected by the coming crisis. Already, dent enrollment up by 50 percent and Lasell’s Newton campus will con- in a span of just three years, seven col- undergraduate enrollment up by a tinue to look and feel like a liberal-arts leges in Massachusetts have shut down third, according to figures reported to college, with white and green houses or merged with larger institutions, the U.S. Education Department. that were built in the 1800s, when including Wheelock College, which is Lasell isn’t staking its future solely Lasell University was still a women’s now part of Boston University. on a name change. Alexander, who seminary. Colleges like Lasell see growth comes from a corporate background, Alexander said a few older alumni in their graduate- and internation- has been taking steps to make the were worried that the college would al-student populations as the key to college more affordable for students lose its identity in the move to a uni- offsetting the inevitable decline in tra- since he became its president over a versity, but more recent graduates were ditional-age students in their regions. decade ago. The latest innovation is enthusiastic about the change. “The Still, there’s no evidence that simply “Lasell Works,” a hybrid career-prepa- young alums are changing their ré- substituting “university” for “college” ration course that lets students lower sumés,” he said. “They think it enhanc- guarantees enrollment growth. Over their tuition over four years by $22,000 es the value of their degree.”

Michael Alexander, president of Lasell University, hopes to increase its enrollment of graduate students from 500 to 700 by 2022.

JACKIE RICCIARDI FOR THE CHRONICLE

the chronicle of higher education 47 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is CASE STUDY BENEDICT COLLEGE

STRATEGY: Raise academic A Historically Black College standards and cut tuition Reimagines Itself n 2017, Benedict College, a histori- freshman year. If they pass the courses, cally black institution in Columbia, they will be accepted for the fall term. S.C., was facing a 21-percent enroll- Benedict also lowered its tuition and ment drop since its peak of 3,000 fees from about $30,000 to $22,840 for the students in 2011. Enrollment was at a fall of 2018 and $23,080 for the fall of 2019. low point in 2017, at just under 2,100. Its tuition-discount rate had been close to I The drop in enrollment was largely 32 percent, and “students weren’t paying due to the U.S. Department of Educa- their bills,” Lalande says. The lower tuition tion’s decision to tighten credit standards rate includes all textbooks, which was not for parent PLUS Loans, a decision that the case in the past. hit HBCUs particularly hard and caused The change has made the college enrollments to plummet, especially of first- more financially stable because students year students. are now required to pay their tuition up Benedict was facing other problems as front; before the new policy, many students well: Its “SEE policy,” for Success Equals who were enrolled couldn’t pay their bills Effort, which allowed a student to earn a and owed thousands of dollars to the col- C grade for simply showing up to class, lege. Now Benedict receives more tuition “created an image of Benedict College as revenue than in the past and can reinvest it a place that didn’t have academic rigor,” into scholarships, Lalande says. says Emmanuel Lalande, vice president for And in another big shift, Benedict enrollment management. revamped its curriculum, getting rid of But in 2017, with the arrival of Roslyn five majors, ones that few students took Clark Artis as president, the SEE policy or that didn’t lead to jobs out of college. was eliminated, as was open enrollment. That included religion, which was con- Now students, who are largely first-gener- troversial, Lalande says, given that Ben- ation and low-income, need a 2.0 GPA and edict is Baptist-affiliated. But the goal a 17 on the ACT or 850 on the SAT to be was to focus resources and strengthen accepted. STEM majors. “It’s not Harvard, but we’re creating With financial assistance from the more academic rigor,” says Lalande, who United Negro College Fund, it has also joined the college in 2018 from Florida started its Career Pathways Initiative and Memorial University. But Benedict still Service-Learning Program, to help stu- wanted to be true to its mission to be dents be ready for careers upon graduation. accessible, so it created a summer “bridge” These changes are having the desired program, to help those who had applied effect. Applications were up to 8,000 for but whose scores fell below the cut-off. 2019, a 25-percent increase over the previ- The program allows them to live on ous three years, and the college welcomed campus, take two courses for credit, and 750 freshmen, its largest first-year class receive strong support to prepare for their since 2012, Lalande says. And there are not

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 48 the chronicle of higher education just more students, but more who are Institutional Transformation. It has also sought to increase trans- academically successful. The average The college’s major admissions fers, as well as out-of-state students, who GPA of the incoming freshman class revisions and new curriculum were make up about 40 percent of the student was 3.1 for 2019, compared with 2.7 in just the beginning. Benedict had to body, by partnering with organizations past years. ACT and SAT scores were reintroduce itself to South Carolina, around the country that prepare high- also higher. which “takes time if the last thing school students for higher education. The retention rate has also im- they remember is the SEE policy and And the college strengthened its ties to proved, from about 53 percent before that we’re not strong in academics,” the Bahamas, where many of its interna- 2017 to 56 percent in 2019, with the goal Lalande says. tional students come from. of 60 percent, with help from a newly Over the past few years, he has Just as importantly, the college hired director of student retention. The invited school superintendents, guid- worked hard on improving its customer graduation rate had remained static at ance counselors, and principals to service, something Lalande says was 32 percent in 2019, but Lalande says that campus to hear what they thought of sorely lacking. “It’s hard to imagine, but was because the new policies had been Benedict and familiarize them with we didn’t have a way to make an online in place only two years. its changes. The college has upped its payment,” he says. “We didn’t have In 2019, the American Council on recruitment efforts, visiting more high technology that was working to our Education and Fidelity Investments schools and talking to sophomores and advantage. It may not seem innovative, gave Benedict, along with the Univer- juniors, rather than focusing primarily but for Benedict it was. We needed to sity of South Florida, their Award for on seniors. get into the 21st century.”

Homecoming festivities this year brought out students at Benedict College, where higher standards and lower tuition have resulted in more financial stability.

AJ SHORTER

the chronicle of higher education 49 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is CASE STUDY OGLETHORPE U.

STRATEGY: Match in-state A Small University Bets tuition at any state’s flagship public university, and tie on Enrollment Growth to Keep merit aid to campus visits Its Finances Strong

awrence M. Schall is a bottom-line “We’re trying to project next year,” guy. As president of Oglethor- he says. “We think we’ll have 80 more pe University, in Atlanta, he has students, with 60 of those living on focused on costs and net revenue — specifically, cost per student and net revenue per student, at LOglethorpe as well as at colleges he compares Oglethorpe with. And as expenses inevitably increase, Schall sees enrollment growth as the only way to stay ahead. “When your expenses are going up 2.5 or 3 percent a year, your revenue has got to outstrip that,” he says. “With the stagnation of family income, and discounting the way it is, if you’re raising tuition 4 percent a year, you’re netting half of that. So you’re going to have to grow.” In Oglethorpe’s case, most of the growth is in traditional undergraduates. When Schall took office, in 2005, the university had about 800 students total, including 168 freshmen; in 2019, it brought in 400 first-year students, up from 330 in 2018. The fall 2019 head count, he says, is 1,385, and there are just seven empty beds in the residence halls. “The demographics in the South are better than they are anywhere else,” he notes, and Oglethorpe attracts a diverse population of students — more than a third Pell-eligible, 24 percent African American, and 14 percent Hispanic.

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 50 the chronicle of higher education campus. We can lease apartments. In 2018, Schall’s team added a “Forty-five was higher than any num- We’ve got some doubles that could scholarship program it called the ber I would have said.” be triples. And we’re also looking at Flagship 50: For first-time students Financially, Flagship 50 was taking a cohort of honor students with good high-school grades and somewhat risky. About three-quar- abroad for the first semester.” Flying standardized-test scores, Oglethorpe ters of Oglethorpe’s students are 24 students to Rome could help the will match in-state tuition at the flag- from Georgia, where in-state tuition housing crunch and at the same time ship public university in the student’s at the University of Georgia is be a handy marketing tool. home state. about $12,000. “Our average net But it won’t be Oglethorpe’s only Flagship 50 earned Oglethorpe tuition per student is on the order marketing tool. Several years ago, the national attention — and, perhaps not of $13,000, so that cost us a little bit university began inviting some 300 surprisingly, some imitators. But it of money,” says Schall. But he was applicants a year to spring Scholar- also succeeded in bringing in addi- relieved when the university wasn’t ship Weekends loaded with seminars, tional students with good academic overwhelmed with applicants from interviews, and auditions — and with credentials. Of the 70-student in- neighboring Florida, where in-state a promise: “All students who partici- crease in first-year enrollment in the tuition is around $7,000. pate will receive a renewable, annual fall of 2019, the Flagship 50 program The university’s discount rate merit award of at least $18,000.” That brought 45, says Schall. “People asked went up about 1 percent, to 60 per- helped ensure that admitted students me last year what I was hoping for, cent, Schall says. “Our freshman class actually enrolled. and I was like, ‘20, 30, 40,’” he says. grew 21 percent, and net tuition from our freshman class grew 16 percent. It cost us a little money per student, but At Oglethorpe brought in a lot of the right kids and University, which brought a lot of extra net tuition.” attracts a diverse Other enrollment bets the uni- population of versity has made haven’t paid off as students, most well, Schall notes. “We made a pretty of the enrollment big play to build our internation- growth has been al-student population starting two among traditional years ago. We thought we were going undergraduates. to see an additional 40 international kids a year. And this year I think we had 10.” He blames a “skyrocketing” rate of visa denials, plus news reports about gun violence. “Mass shootings hit the international press in a big way. Parents feel like it’s happening every week.” Schall plans on leaving Oglethor- pe at the end of the 2019-20 academic year, and he says the challenge for his successor will be finding a way for the university to maintain the current rate of growth, and, if it can, accom- modating the additional students. “But you're going to have to grow, because your revenue is going to have to grow,” he says. “I don't foresee a day when we’re like, ‘OK, we’ve hit RENEE VARY the number.’”

the chronicle of higher education 51 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is CASE STUDY WILSON COLLEGE

STRATEGY: Know what today’s A Small Women’s College market wants, and offer as much of it as possible Admitted Men — and Enrollment Climbed

ilson College had been saved By the fall of 2019, though, Wilson once before — in 1979, when had an enrollment of 1,620, including the Board of Trustees voted 662 traditional undergraduates. Mistick, to close the central Penn- who left Wilson in June 2019 to become sylvania institution, and president of the National Association of alumnae filed a lawsuit that Independent Colleges and Universities, Wsucceeded in keeping it open. But by says the most important advice she can 2012, Wilson’s traditional undergraduate give any institution is simple: “You’ve gotta College for Women had only 316 stu- know your market.” dents. Total enrollment, including coed “I can’t tell you how many people said, adult-degree and graduate programs, when I came here, ‘Oh, yeah, Wilson — was just 695. The college was running that’s that college for rich girls down the a deficit of $3 million a year, and de- road,’” says Mistick. “We hadn’t been that ferred-maintenance problems had closed college since the 60s, probably, maybe the library and the swimming pool. since the 50s.” Now more than 40 percent Barbara K. Mistick, the former presi- of Wilson’s students are Pell-eligible, and dent of Pittsburgh’s public-library system, about the same proportion are the first had been Wilson’s president for a year, in their families to attend college. “Our and she did what some alumnae thought families are middle-income families and unthinkable: She created a 23-member lower-middle-income families. We’ve real- Commission on Shaping the Future of ly seen a shift in the market that we serve.” Wilson College and told its members that So the college lopped $5,000 off its “everything’s on the table” — including tuition, which was $28,745 in 2012-13 (it’s admitting men. $24,450 for 2019-20). “Talk about an inter- After studying reams of data and esting conversation to have among presi- debating for months, the commission dents!” says Mistick. Some think a tuition recommended not only welcoming male reset is a good idea, but others insist that undergraduates but also cutting tuition by price and prestige continue to be linked. $5,000, starting a high-profile loan-buy- “What I can tell you is that our market back program, and creating new offerings really was looking for value. If you look at in the health sciences and other career-ori- the survey data that’s starting to come out ented disciplines. The goal was to have now, more-affordable colleges are trending 1,500 students by 2020. higher in the selection process for fami-

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 52 the chronicle of higher education “Everything’s on the table,” Wilson College’s president told a panel tasked with shaping the future of the women’s college.

DAVID SINCLAIR

lies that are looking. They’re saying a students in the humanities, but students students.” four-year degree is really important, are middle income and their parents are As for admitting men, that infu- but I’d like to look at a place that’s more worried about jobs, and they’re worried riated some Wilson alumnae, even affordable. We wanted to put ourselves about jobs, and they’re worried about though surveys had shown repeatedly in that space.” paying down their debt after college.” that only a small proportion of today’s Wilson has also tried hard to match The college’s revised curriculum, high-school women would consider a its curricular offerings to demand, she says, still emphasizes liberal-arts single-sex college. Wilson’s consultants such as by adding a nursing program skills like communication, creativity, had predicted, however, that admitting that now has as many students as the problem solving, and how to be a life- men would actually increase enrollment college’s longtime veterinary-education long learner. “But today we’re probably among women, a forecast that turns out program. “You’ve got to be market-re- talking about those things as workplace to have been correct: In the fall of 2019, sponsive,” Mistick says. “I know faculty skills,” says Mistick. “That’s resonating 533 women and 129 men were enrolled feel beaten up because there aren’t more with parents, and it’s resonating with as traditional undergraduates.

the chronicle of higher education 53 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is CASE STUDY U. OF THE CUMBERLANDS

STRATEGY: Add a new A Faith-Based College Turns online graduate program and cut undergraduate to Online Graduate Programs tuition by 57 percent and Sees Huge Growth

few years ago, the University of were the fastest-growing over all. the Cumberlands was a small Other Christian colleges have seen residential college for low-in- similarly sharp gains. Indeed, half the come students from Appalachia. institutions that cracked this year’s list of Then the 2008 recession hit, the 20 fastest-growing private nonprofit bringing widespread job losses to colleges with at least 5,000 students in Athe region. 2017 identify as faith-based campuses. The lost income left applicants needi- They got there by different means, er than ever, forcing the Christian college including adding academic programs and in Kentucky to discount tuition even more expanding recruiting. deeply than it always had. The future Faith-based institutions that are didn’t look much brighter, with forecasts focused on undergraduates face steep chal- predicting a decline in the number of lenges. The number of students graduating high-school graduates nationwide. from American high schools is expected to To survive, Cumberlands, like many drop after 2025, while the share of students of its private-college peers, would have to identifying as religious is shrinking. find a way to raise new revenue. So in 2011, the university created an online graduate program. Today, close to 12,000 online learners, most of them in “We wanted to get to a graduate programs, subsidize the roughly 1,400 undergraduates who study in the campus’s traditional red-brick buildings. cost point that was not The online move has made Cum- berlands, which was founded by Baptist a deterrent for the ministers in 1888, the fastest-growing doctoral private nonprofit institution in the country. In the decade from 2007 to traditional population 2017, Cumberlands’s enrollment grew 350 percent. That is still well behind the to pursue a degree.” growth rates of Southern New Hampshire and Western Governors Universities, which ranked first and second among Many Christian colleges already master’s private nonprofit institutions and feel the pinch. In the latest survey by the

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 54 the chronicle of higher education “The more they can tap into an older age group, the less they’ll face demographic challenges,” says an expert on Christian colleges.

U. OF THE CUMBERLANDS

Council for Christian Colleges and Uni- $23,000 to $9,875. courses through the university’s dual- versities, more than half of its member Jerry Jackson, the university’s vice enrollment program, which has close to colleges that responded reported declines president for enrollment and commu- 5,000 students. in traditional undergraduate enrollments nications, says he hopes the tuition Some Christian colleges have tak- in 2017-18. Meanwhile, the median reset will encourage students who were en steps to become more welcoming unfunded discount rate at the surveyed planning to work, or to study at a two- to students of different faiths and eth- institutions increased to 43.3 percent year college, to consider Cumberlands. nicities, including expanding outreach from 29.6 percent a decade earlier. “We wanted to get to a cost point that to the fast-growing Latino commu- To offset those trends, some faith- was not a deterrent for the traditional nity. Cumberlands recently broke ties based colleges are turning to online population to pursue a degree,” he says. with the Kentucky Conference of the graduate education, as the University So far the tuition reduction has Southern Baptist Convention but still of the Cumberlands has. From 2012 to exceeded expectations. This fall the considers itself a faith-based institu- 2017, the number of graduate students university enrolled 875 new on-cam- tion. Andrew Powell, the university’s enrolled exclusively in distance edu- pus students, compared with 520 new director of communications and mar- cation at religiously affiliated colleges students in fall of 2018. keting, says Cumberlands wanted to increased by 55 percent. But there are other paths to sus- include members of other faiths on its Online education extends colleges’ tainability, too. Among the half dozen Board of Trustees, which the church geographic reach and could help in- fast-growing colleges studied by Trus- wouldn’t allow. sulate them against a decline in tradi- cott, two changed locations, two added “We’re seeing growth in students of tional-age undergraduates, says Philip football teams, and several created new all faiths,” he says. “From a marketing Truscott, who recently interviewed academic programs or core curricula. perspective, we don’t want to be seen as officials at some of the fastest-growing California Baptist University, which of one faith only.” Christian colleges for an article for the grew 163 percent over a decade, added Though a majority of Cumberlands’ council’s magazine. new programs in high-demand fields students now study online, its leafy “The more they can tap into an like nursing, engineering, and avia- campus will always be part of its identity, older age group, the less they’ll face de- tion science, while starting an online Powell says. And its growing number of mographic challenges,” says Truscott, an degree-completion program, says Mark online learners seem to appreciate that. associate professor of sociology at South- Wyatt, its vice president for marketing When they pass signs for the campus west Baptist University, in Missouri. and communication. along I-75, they’ll pull off, snap a selfie, That has proved true at Cumber- Colorado Christian University, and post it to social media, he says. lands, whose online program has done which grew 244 percent, has forged Some students “like to be tied to a so well that the institution plans to relationships with more than 400 high brick-and-mortar institution,” he says. reduce its undergraduate residential schools, most of them Christian. More “They want online delivery, but the tuition by more than half this fall, from than a third of those high schools offer security and history we bring.”

the chronicle of higher education 55 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is CASE STUDY MISSOURI STATE U.

STRATEGY: Expand dual-credit A Midwestern University programs to boost revenue and attract future undergraduates Plans for ‘the Cliff’

issouri State University at almost 3,500 in 2019, Hornberger says. Springfield has enrollment Dual-credit students now make up 14 numbers many other institu- percent of the total student population, tions would envy. It has grown compared with 8.5 percent eight years in 20 of the past 22 years; in ago, he adds. 2019 it enrolled 24,126 students. Over the past two years, dual-cred- MThat’s particularly good considering that it enrollment “has become more of a a few years ago, the number of the state’s strategy by the university to level out the high-school graduates dipped — and is loss of enrollment in other categories,” projected to remain flat until 2025. Hornberger says. “We also see it as an Then the real crisis comes. After opportunity to connect with students at 2025, the college-age cohort in Missouri an earlier point so they consider Missouri will see a distinct downward demograph- State as their college of choice.” ic trend. “We call it the cliff,” says Rob The university now partners with Hornberger, the university’s associate about 135 high schools, he says, offering vice president for enrollment manage- 85 courses, and has the second-largest ment and services. number of dual-credit courses in the state While the university did see a 1-per- after the University of Missouri at St. cent drop in overall enrollment from Louis. 2018 to 2019, that small number masked According to state law, high-school some steeper declines: a 13-percent teachers who meet certain standards, reduction in freshmen and a 7-percent including having a master’s degree, are decrease in transfer students, attributable allowed to teach college courses in high to a 20-percent drop in the state’s com- school. The upside is that students earn munity-college enrollment over the past high-school and college credit simul- five years, Hornberger says. taneously, and the university and high But the university made up for those schools share the tuition students pay losses with a growing number of du- for the courses. al-credit students, as well as a bump in A downside is that dual-credit stu- graduate students. Expanding that pool dents don’t bring in as much money as of dual-credit students will be a major fo- undergraduates. University tuition for cus of the strategic enrollment-manage- in-state undergraduates is $218 per cred- ment plan Missouri State is developing in it hour, compared with $70 per credit the 2019-20 academic year. for high-school students. But the hope That push has been largely success- is that ultimately those high-school stu- ful. Despite a few dips over the past two dents will move from dual-enrollment years, the number of dual-credit students to full-time undergraduates at Missouri grew from fewer than 1,800 in 2011 to State, Hornberger says. In fall 2019, 17.5

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 56 the chronicle of higher education percent of new students had taken course, Hornberger says, but “that percent five years ago, and its four- dual-credit courses from Missouri gives us a foot in the door to build a year graduation rate is 38 percent, State, up from 12 percent in 2011. relationship with them and possibly compared with 31 percent for the And, he says, another goal, get other classes offered at the school graduating class of 2015. Its six-year besides raising enrollment, is broad- as well.” graduation rate is 56 percent. ening access to higher education to as In the fall of 2019, Missouri State The university is also focusing many high-school students as possi- also began offering six free credits on raising its number of graduate ble, by providing resources to take of dual-credit courses to students in students; over the past five years, it college classes. Springfield public schools who are has added 50 new graduate programs. While Missouri State’s dual-cred- eligible for free or reduced school Most of the programs offer certifi- it courses used to be limited to gener- lunches and have at least a 3.0 GPA; cates aimed at meeting work-force al education, such as writing, algebra, about 100 students have taken ad- demands. But high-demand degrees, and chemistry, “we’re now expanding, vantage of that so far. In 2020, the such as a master’s in occupational as more academic departments on university is expanding the offer to therapy and the Doctor of Nurse campus are interested in making their other parts of the state. Anesthesia Practice, are also help- courses available,” he adds. As Missouri State’s enrollment ing boost the number of graduate For example, the university now has grown over the years, so have its students by almost 3 percent in 2019 offers a dual-credit agriculture class graduation and retention rates. Its re- over 2018, to 3,815 students, Horn- at a local high school. The high tention rate between first and second berger says — its largest gradu- school has adopted only that one years is 78 percent, compared with 75 ate-student enrollment ever.

Expanding the pool of dual-credit students, like these high-schoolers in a chemistry course, has worked well for Missouri State University.

PHILLIP SECCA

the chronicle of higher education 57 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is SECTION 4 Enrollment Experts Speak Out Those on the front line discuss strategies, fears, and the future

his section offers analysis, advice, and a look at some of the practical steps that colleges are taking to maintain or shore up enrollment. Since the enrollment crunch affects institutions and geographic regions in different ways, we’ve provided a cross-section of views. One strategy that won’t work: Relying on the same old, same old. “Change in higher education moves at a snail’s pace, but this crisis requires expediency,” says Angel B. Pérez, vice president for enrollment and student success at Trin- ity College, in Connecticut. “The colleges that will thrive in the decades ahead are those willing to take risks while keepingT their mission and history at the core of every decision they make.” t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 58 the chronicle of higher education “Things Are Only Going to Get Worse”

uestion: Who do you think made confounded the predictive modeling of enroll- the following observation — and ment managers. The near-term chaos was very when? real. Somehow, at varying rates, most colleges “Even more alarming is the managed to survive, but in order to do so they perception among a growing num- established a “new normal” that would allow Qber of young people today that, them to claim renewed stability for the long haul. with escalating college costs and diminishing That brings us to the summer of 2019, when the payoffs in terms of guaranteed career opportu- cracks in this new normal really started to show. nities, a postsecondary education simply may As has been the case in recent years, Buck- not be worth the huge investment.” nell University had a large and talented appli- If you guessed that I pulled cant pool for the Class of this from a magazine article pub- 2023. Setting an aggressive lished in the past couple of years, COMMENTARY target of 980 (40 more first- you wouldn’t be alone. Point of year students than in 2017), fact: The above statement was our yield model indicated made by Jack Maguire in Boston BILL CONLEY that our admit pool, plus 30 College Magazine … in 1976. to 35 students enrolled from For those of us who have the wait list, would safely been doing admissions work for a while — I’ve land us there by the first day of fall classes. That been in the business since 1980 — to hear some all changed on May 2. The enrollment-deposit form of Maguire’s concern today just seems like spigot went dry, considerably short of our goal. déjà vu all over again. The 1980s were quickly As it turned out, we would need to enroll about dubbed the “demographic decade” as high- school graduation rates declined and a stubborn recession pressed family pocketbooks. In fact, Maguire is widely acknowledged as the father of enrollment management, the science that would be called upon to relieve higher education’s enrollment pressures at the time. The two decades that followed saw ebbs and flows in high-school graduation rates and an inexorable increase in the sticker price of college. Yet with each demographic blip, and with every crossing of a new are-you-kidding- me? threshold for cost of attendance, colleges still reported record selectivity, robust enrollments, and financial-aid programs that, for some, effectively reduced sticker shock. Indeed, reports of a higher-education bubble about to burst appeared to be greatly exaggerated. American higher education seemingly had an elasticity that could withstand periodic, short- term fluctuations in demand and cost. Then came 2008. The Great Recession devastated university endowments, shattered the majority of family wealth and income, and Bill Conley

the chronicle of higher education 59 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 100 students from our wait list. sented 17 percent of all degrees conferred In the process of calling these wait-list- in 1967, compared with 5 percent in 2015. ed applicants, we learned that Bucknell was Pitzer College, a nationally ranked liber- hardly alone in its shortfall. Up and down al-arts college, reported that the five top the selectivity ladder, especially among majors among its Class of 2019 were: envi- private colleges, yield models had been ronmental analysis, organizational studies, invalidated by a sea change in college-choice biology, economics, and psychology. Some behavior. After the May 1 deadline for can- preprofessional majors are faring no better: didates to accept or reject admissions offers, Bachelor’s degrees in education declined by the National Association for College Admis- 15 percent between 2005 and 2015. It is little sion Counseling (NACAC) provides colleges wonder that the Pennsylvania State System the option to post a “still open for business” of Higher Education, significantly depen- status alerting potential applicants that dent on teacher education, has seen its 14 there’s still time to submit an application. state-owned universities lose 20 percent of For classes entering between 2014 and 2016, their collective enrollment since 2010. the average number of colleges that would I don’t see these trends changing, consider postdeadline applications over that especially when coupled with stagnating three-year span was 436. For the past three income and the resulting pressure on a years? The average was 554 — a 27-percent family’s return-on-investment calculus. increase. Many in higher education assume families This was my summer of 2019 takeaway: don’t value the liberal arts anymore, but it’s Higher education has fully entered a new more nuanced than that. Families hear the structural reality. You’d be naïve to believe importance of “soft skills” (communications, that most colleges will be able to ride out creativity, etc.); they just don’t accept that this unexpected wave as we have previous their children need to major in a liberal-arts swells. field to gain them and to secure a job after Those who saw modest high-school graduation. Continued adherence to tradi- graduation dips by 2020 as surmountable tional, low-demand curricula or knee-jerk must now absorb the statistical reality: adopting of “hot” majors will only exacer- Things are only going to get worse. As bate the problem. Nathan Grawe has shown, a sharp decrease in fertility during the Great Recession will further deepen the high-school graduation trough by 2026. Meanwhile, the cost of attendance for both private and public colleges Yield models had been insists on outpacing inflation, American incomes continue to stagnate, and col- invalidated by a sea lege-endowment returns or state subsidies can no longer support the discounting of sticker prices. And nearly three out of four change in college-choice economists reportedly believe a significant recession is likely to be underway by 2021. behavior. This perfect storm has changed, and will continue to change, student and family college-choice behavior for the next decade Bucknell’s most significant shortfall in and more. I see this playing out across three 2019 was in admitted students who were dimensions: majors, money, and mission. offered financial aid. I heard from other As any number of reports have shown, enrollment managers who had a similar students have been inexorably marching experience. So, what gives? away from the traditional liberal-arts ma- One answer could be Virginia Tech — jors. One such report from the American not just the institution itself but the sector it Academy of Arts & Sciences noted that represents. Virginia Tech overenrolled its in- bachelor’s degrees in the humanities repre- coming first-year class for 2019 by 1,000 stu-

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 60 the chronicle of higher education dents. (Talk about a yield model imploding!) this 2019 comment from Tim Cook, Apple’s My guess is they did not anticipate the sharp chief executive: “I don’t think a four-year rise in students aiming to attend lower-cost, degree is necessary to be proficient in cod- high-profile public institutions. In 2018, four ing. I think that is an old, traditional view.” of the top six enrolled-overlap schools for I don’t expect Bucknell’s analysis of the Bucknell were public universities. 2019 admissions cycle to show any mean- The handwriting was probably on the ingful incursion by nontraditional compet- wall, as the national, first-year discount rate itors. However, what we won’t know is how had already crested the 50-percent mark; according to the National Association of College and University Business Officers (NACUBO), it was 39 percent as recently as 2008. This steep rise is significantly fueled Disruption is here to stay. by colleges that have adopted the airline pricing model: If the plane is going to fly Campus leaders cannot change anyway (and if there are still spots open), no harm in getting even pennies on an otherwise unsold ticket. For colleges discounting the wind direction, but they can at or above the national figure, this is un- likely to be a sustainable strategy. However, trim the institutional sails. in the meantime, they are no doubt pulling students away from colleges that expect full- pay or better-pay students to foot the true bill. In short, price sensitivity is a structural many high-school seniors opted out of the reality when supply (number of college beds four-year college pathway in favor of short- and desks) is greater than demand. er-term, anytime, lower-cost credentialing. At the dawn of the 20th century, the These legitimate competitors pose risks en- railroad industry nearly collapsed. Why? rollment managers must acknowledge before Because industry leaders (wrongly) believed it is too late. their primary mission to be railroading, Disruption is here to stay. Campus not transportation. For too long, col- leaders cannot change the wind direction, leges — public and private, liberal arts and but they can trim the institutional sails. research-driven, rural and urban — have op- For too long, the admissions dean or en- erated as if they’re solely in the higher-ed- rollment manager had the lone hand on the ucation business rather than in the broader tuition-revenue tiller. Now, it’s all hands postsecondary-education sector. Traditional (campus leadership, faculty, staff, trustees, residential colleges took solace in slaying etc.) on deck, pulling the tactical lines in one-and-done competitors like the Uni- a coordinated, strategic fashion. Given the versity of Phoenix or MOOCs. Now the perilous voyage ahead, what will your insti- challenges come on multiple fronts: There tution’s mix of majors, money, and mission are still for-profit insurgents clipping at our be? heels, not to mention distance-learning plat- forms, academic boot camps, and compa- Bill Conley is vice president for enrollment manage- ny-sponsored certificate programs. Consider ment at Bucknell University. This article originally appeared in The Chronicle.

the chronicle of higher education 61 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is There’s a Lot More to the Enrollment Crisis Than Demographics

n a recent conversation about potential Remaking America, reissued in 2018, expects threats to higher education, W. Joseph whites to become a minority among 18- to King, president of Lyon College and 29-year-olds in less than a decade. Whites will an author of How to Run a College, made make up less than half of the under-18 U.S. an astute observation about today’s population next year. environment. When It is difficult to imagine Iyou see the lowest birthrate that these changes in popula- ever recorded, he said, the COMMENTARY tion size and composition will challenges of demographic pass without making an indel- change are simply a reality ible impression on campuses. that all colleges are going to NATHAN D. GRAWE However, as important as de- need to face. “But,” he added, mographic trends are and will “it’s not just the demographics.” continue to be, we must resist In other words, as important as demographic the temptation to see everything through this forces will be in coming years, colleges must single lens — even when examining stories act decisively to control the many things that that contain demographic threads. are within their power. This is not to suggest that low fertility rates and shifts in population composition are of little consequence. Just ask colleges that depend on markets in the Northeast and Midwest, where the Western Interstate Com- mission for Higher Education (Wiche) reports that the number of high-school graduates has declined since 2010. The downward trend is likely to accelerate and to extend throughout the country in the mid-2020s, as a consequence of fertility declines that began during the financial crisis and have continued to decline. At the same time, the country’s racial and ethnic makeup continues to evolve. Drawing on Census Bureau data, William H. Frey con- cludes that the country will become “minority white” around midcentury. But institutions that serve traditional-age students won’t have to wait nearly so long for their milestone moment, because younger generations are sub- stantially more diverse. Frey, author of Diversi- ty Explosion: How New Racial Demographics Are Nathan D. Grawe

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 62 the chronicle of higher education For example, consider some recent head- mont? Surely this is a simple demographic sto- lines. From U.S. News & World Report: “Na- ry: The state that Wiche figures has shed more tionwide college enrollment is down again.” than one-quarter of its high-school graduates From the Los Angeles Times: “Freshman appli- since 2007-8 has now lost a nearly propor- cations dip at UC for the first time in 15 years. tionate share of its private colleges. Yes, but Is it the start of a trend?” From the The Wall another important storyline suggested by this Street Journal: “Oberlin, University of Chica- headline is that a large number of institutions go and other elite colleges extend application live precariously close to the existential bound- deadlines.” And from the The Boston Globe: ary, operating with little margin in the event “Green Mountain College in Vermont will of even modest enrollment decline. Accord- shut down.” ing to an analysis by the consulting company To be sure, each of those stories includes a EY-Parthenon, “122 institutions exhibit more demographic facet. In the first case, after years than four [of a possible eight] risk factors for of rising numbers of college-age young people, closing,” such as deficit spending, debt pay- nationally we find ourselves on a plateau with ments in excess of 10 percent of expenses, and more or less stable high-school graduating enrollment under 1,000. cohorts. So year-over-year declines in college enrollment were uncommon in the past but are more likely now. However, the headline isn’t about a single-year setback; we have seen eight straight years of contraction. That’s not the Before the brunt of the birth result of a plateau. Surely the current downward trend largely reflects recovery from the dearth is upon us, now is the deepest recession in modern economic history. Even as we contemplate new demographic trends, we should not lose sight of the many time to address the cracks ways in which economic forces currently drive a range of educational outcomes, including already visible in our practices enrollment, the desire for credentialing, and trends in students’ choices of academic majors. Similarly, deep enrollment reductions at and financial models. for-profit colleges remind us of the power of regulation — as each day sees a new proposal for redesigning student loans and other federal Perhaps the implication of demographic aid. change is that institutions need to spend more Headlines heralding declining application time attending to unchanging fundamentals numbers at selective colleges might also point critical to institutional sustainability. After all, to demographic change. In fact, it might seem whatever we may do to prepare for the future more comfortable to interpret those changes — and we have many options at hand — even as demographic phenomena than to consider the best-endowed college can’t add to the alternative explanations. For instance, the per- number of Americans born in 2015. The chal- sistence of declarations that higher education’s lenges facing higher education are multiple, financial model is broken is matched only by and most of them will be made more difficult the upward trend in the discount rate. Perhaps as prospective-student pools shrink in the next the high-sticker-price/uncertain-financial-aid decade. Before the brunt of the birth dearth is model has finally reached a breaking point. upon us, now is the time to address the cracks Alternatively, changes in application behav- already visible in our practices and financial ior may reflect growing dissatisfaction with models. By attending to nondemographic admissions practices — which, according to threats, we may just find that the demographic a recent poll, are characterized by more than stresses are reduced. one-third of Americans (including four in 10 For example, David Kirp’s 2019 book, The nonwhites) as very or somewhat unfair. College Dropout Scandal, makes an impassioned And what about college closures in Ver- argument for serious improvements in low

the chronicle of higher education 63 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is retention rates. The National Student Clear- away from a similar initiative). Other colleges inghouse Research Center estimates that only have brought relevance to existing programs 62 percent of students entering college in 2017 through increased support for internships. returned to the same institution the following However designed, these efforts aim to make fall. One in four didn’t re-enroll anywhere clearer the links between college studies and only 12 months after beginning college. Glenn life after graduation. Davis and fellow researchers at St. Cloud State University, in Minnesota, figure that improvements in retention begin with identifying at-risk students. They have developed a brief survey that detects first-year students who are By attending to at risk for attrition because of a low sense of belonging despite strong grades. At Rutgers nondemographic threats, University, some student-work supervisors are being trained to use their professional relationships with student employees to connect we may just find that the them more securely with the campus. While student success is always of the highest value, demographic stresses shrinking pools of prospective students make retention improvements important to institutional sustainability. are reduced. Similarly, recent work by Strada and Gallup finds that students are more likely to see value in their education — and to view it Barring significant changes in people’s as worth the price — if they’ve taken courses desire for college, demographic shifts prom- that they perceive as relevant to their lives and ise to reshape parts of higher education in careers. While this result should not be used the decade to come. However, by looking in misguided ventures to turn all students into past those forces, which we cannot control, STEM majors, it is a reminder that, regardless and focusing keenly on the fulfillment of our of major, higher education should prepare stu- missions, which we can control, we can create dents for meaningful lives following college. new and better futures for our students and Some colleges have responded with interde- our institutions. partmental degrees, such as “computer science + X,” which often pair marketable comput- Nathan D. Grawe is a professor of economics at er-science skills with humanities studies Carleton College and the author of Demographics (though Stanford University recently backed and the Demand for Higher Education (2018).

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 64 the chronicle of higher education 5 Views on the Future of College Enrollment Make Enrollment Count • Take a look of internal processes that consume around. Does precious time and resources, and you in Strategic Planning your faculty, can create incentives to reward those your staff, and who bring successful programs to By JOHN BOECKENSTEDT your curricu- market. Do you know how much of lum look a lot your enrollment is in relatively new t’s hard to speak to anyone at like they did programs? Should you? a university without hearing before today’s • At the same time, good strategy about looming demographic students were requires you to stop doing some changes. We are all keenly born? If so, do Iaware that the changing numbers things. That, of course, is easier said you think that John Boeckenstedt than done at a university. Academic and mix of our prospective-student best prepares programs are always the first thing markets, coupled with new econom- you for the people think of, but there are many ic realities, are changing how we immediate and the distant future? things a university does that are less address challenges and plan for a Are you including people in the vital to its mission, and those should future that seems more uncertain. planning process who might other- be reviewed. Examples might include While we can’t change the number wise be invisible on campus? of people born 18 years ago, we can particular athletics teams, centers adapt to a changing world. As you • Fix the problems you have, or institutes that neither generate embark on strategic planning, here not the ones you wish you had. revenue nor advance the mission, are important things to consider: Declining net revenue, deferred and promotional activities that have maintenance, and a lack of diversity no measurable return on investment. • Understand that your portfolio all compromise both your immedi- This is perhaps the most vital com- of enrollments is complex. Pro- ate viability and your future market ponent of strategy. grams that bring big numbers may position; small decreases in SAT not be bringing you much revenue. averages or a lack of National Merit Good planning is hard, but it’s Some programs may be vital from Scholars are less critical. essential, of course. Framing your a mission standpoint, others from a challenges, understanding trade-offs, revenue standpoint. Balance is key, • Think about new opportunities, and thinking broadly don’t guarantee and seeing the inherent trade-offs is and streamline processes to bring success, but they increase its likelihood. an essential component of good de- them from idea to fruition. You cision making and planning. Often, can’t do much about state require- Jon Boeckenstedt is vice provost for unintended consequences are the ments that bog down degree approv- enrollment management at Oregon State ones you need to anticipate most. al, but you can improve the efficiency University.

No, Your College Is Not the labor force; fewer high-school its own sake. graduates in most regions; students Those days an Exception with different needs and expecta- are gone. tions; free-college initiatives; state According By MADELEINE RHYNEER funding challenges; and parents who to the CIRP can’t or won’t pay for college, and Freshman he admissions landscape is I see serious headwinds with a very Survey, distressing. College enroll- long tail. students are ment is down 1.7 percent How can we inoculate our institu- going to nationwide, and universi- tions from this storm? college (and Tties up and down the quality chain Start by acknowledging that most having their Madeleine Rhyneer missed headcount goals this fall. families view college as a transaction, parents pay Throw in Moody’s negative credit not as a time of transformation. I for college) outlook for higher education; hyper- think fondly of my undergrad expe- to get a good job. Understand their competition; a booming economy rience, when I was drawn by my love pragmatism and embrace it. It is time drawing prospective students into of learning, acquiring knowledge for to prioritize what students want and

the chronicle of higher education 65 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is need over what we want to teach. willing to pay for. a Nobel Prize in economics for the Heresy, I know. Finally, we must rewrite the busi- person who figures it out. If colleges don’t make bold deci- ness model of higher education. Our sions, the market will make them for cost increases each year outstrip the Madeleine Rhyneer is vice president for us. We must collaborate internally ability of students and their families consulting and dean of enrollment ser- to identify new academic programs, to pay — so we increase our discount vices at EAB, a consulting firm based in better retention methods, new modes rate, a zero-sum game. How can we Washington, D.C. She formerly served of delivery, and other approaches that reduce fixed costs and still provide as vice president for enrollment and speak to what families seek and are a high-quality education? There’s marketing at Susquehanna University.

mission? Colleges have historically how they The Definition of Insanity added programs, increased the size operate. Small of their student body, or added fees. liberal-arts By ANGEL B. PÉREZ We are hitting a wall on all of those colleges, for options. example, t is often said that the definition The enrollment game is fiercely are used to of insanity is doing the same competitive, and every college plays serving a tra- thing over and over again and it — which means that every college ditional-age expecting a different result. For will have to decrease its dependence student popu- Idecades, this is how colleges handled on traditional enrollment. lation. If they enrollment. Instead of transforma- In short, colleges must be willing Angel B. Pérez are to attract tion, they tweaked at the margins. to radically reimagine their business adult and This is no longer sufficient. The models. This does not mean redefin- nontraditional answer to the “revenue problem” has ing who they are and what they do; it’s learners, they always been “get more students who about doing new things. Partnerships must redesign everything. can pay” or “go recruit in a new mar- with corporate America, alternative Change in higher education moves ket.” Those wells are drying up. uses for campus buildings, different at a snail’s pace, but this crisis requires Unlike businesses, colleges don’t methods of curricular delivery, and expediency. have many levers to pull when their programming and housing for adult The colleges that will thrive in the product is no longer in demand. and retired populations are just a few decades ahead are those willing to When computer sales drop, Apple options. Colleges should emulate suc- take risks while keeping their mission creates a new device. When Americans cessful businesses — figure out what and history at the core of every deci- buy fewer of its vehicles, Ford increas- their “customers” need, and design sion they make. es sales abroad. Higher education does products and experiences to meet not have this luxury. Colleges have to those needs. Angel B. Pérez is vice president for ask: What else can we do to increase The challenge is that this requires enrollment and student success at Trinity revenue that is consistent with our institutions to fundamentally change College, in Connecticut.

More Colleges The typical answer to In the current climate, declining revenue is “en- even compelling student Will Likely Close roll more students.” That outreach tactics won’t comes at a cost. Some necessarily help. There By STEFANIE D. NILES institutions will still miss are simply fewer students their net revenue tar- going to college, and that e have entered into gets since they have to will continue to be the a time of unprece- provide deep discounts to case for at least the next dented uncertainty. get students in the door; 10-12 years. Even when predictive others compromise by As a result, colleges will models,W based on years of tried and enrolling students who likely continue to close. Stefanie D. Niles true results, indicate things are on aren’t academically pre- There are simply too track, more and more institutions get pared and may struggle many colleges compet- blindsided on May 1. to graduate. ing for a dwindling pool

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 66 the chronicle of higher education of individuals. Family incomes have and providing aid for more students. challenges of increasing costs and a remained largely stagnant over the Other colleges have restructured their shrinking pipeline, less financially past 20 years, yet the cost of education curricula and added new majors and secure institutions on the lower end of has risen sharply. The institutions that co-curricular programs. Still others the prestige spectrum will continue to will thrive are those that are creatively have added online, hybrid, or other falter, and even disappear. addressing their pipeline and working options to give students more flexi- to identify who, beyond the tradition- bility. Stefanie D. Niles is vice president for al pool of students, might be available Few institutions, however, have enrollment and communications at Ohio to them. experienced real, sustainable success Wesleyan University and immediate past Some colleges have been willing to with these changes. Until higher president of the National Association for try new things, like reducing prices education confronts head-on the College Admission Counseling.

The Biggest Threat Is to we be a decade education to the neediest students, rep- from now, but resentation of middle-income students the Neediest Students rather who has continued to dissipate, effectively will we be? My creating a financial barbell. Initiatives By RICHARD A. CLARK biggest con- such as the University of Georgia’s Com- cern is that mit to Georgia and the Texas Advance ’m often reminded that I sit in an our nation’s Commitment at the University of Texas enviable position. Georgia Tech most prom- are seeking to address the problem, but is not fighting to meet our en- inent public they are also indicators of the extreme rollment goals. We are not call- universities challenge many flagships face enrolling Iing students from our wait list instead will continue diverse socioeconomic classes. Richard A. Clark of enjoying Fourth of July barbecues to become Without more concerted efforts, or repackaging financial-aid offers more socio- the middle-class student will contin- in early August to fill beds and save economically homogeneous. ue to be squeezed out — or saddled faculty jobs. With drastic declines in state with an unconscionable debt bur- At many colleges in New England support, particularly since the Great den upon graduation. If our most and throughout the Midwest, howev- Recession, public universities with prominent public universities are er, each meeting of deans or trustees strong brands have increasingly sought unable to re-establish public trust includes at least two citations from nonresident tuition to satisfy the bot- and effectively articulate their need Nathan Grawe’s book Demographics tom line. Combined with the steadily for state appropriations to bolster and the Demand for Higher Education increasing cost of attendance, the rep- need-based financial aid, they risk (Johns Hopkins University Press, resentation of high-income students on losing the very students they were 2018). Meanwhile the South and the these campuses has ballooned. created to educate. Southwest are growing. While programs like the University As a result, the conversations of North Carolina’s Carolina Covenant Richard A. Clark is director of under- around enrollment at healthy publics, and Georgia Tech’s Promise have done graduate admissions at the Georgia particularly in the South, is not will an excellent job of providing debt-free Institute of Technology.

Some of these excerpts were drawn from opinion articles in The Chronicle.

the chronicle of higher education 67 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is FORUM

When we asked a group of enrollment experts how their colleges were preparing for demographic change, we got a wide How 6 Colleges Are range of responses. Specifically, we asked: “Is your college planning to identify and/or evaluate applicants differently, or to use other strategies, such as broadening your academic of- Responding to the ferings? If so, what are some of the steps you are taking? And how might your college’s strategic-planning process address changing demographics?” One common theme in these re- Enrollment Crisis sponses: Know who you are.

Jefferson R. Blackburn-Smith is vice Michael J. Knox is vice president for Kirk D. Young is vice president for stu- president for enrollment management at student enrollment, engagement, and dent affairs at Jamestown Community Otterbein University. success at West Texas A&M University. College, part of the State University of New York system.

Corry D. Unis is vice president for Andrea Felder is assistant vice provost for Sundar Kumarasamy is vice president for strategic enrollment management at undergraduate admissions at American enrollment management at Northeastern Fairfield University. University. University.

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 68 the chronicle of higher education Jefferson R. Blackburn-Smith a public makerspace, and an array ing number of high-school graduates. of business and industry tenants, Despite that, we are taking many Otterbein U. including start-ups and established proactive steps to help our institution A Midwestern college taps corporate partners like JPMor- succeed in an increasingly competitive underserved students and adds gan Chase, which provide student recruitment environment. Many of distinctive programs work experiences. New graduate our strategies are aimed at differenti- Otterbein University, a private, programs, including the master ating ourselves through a strong focus liberal-arts university located in of educational mathematics, the on our region’s geography, values, and Westerville, Ohio, has been dealing psychiatric and mental-health nurse passions: We serve the plains, towns, with the changing demographics of practitioner major (an online option ranches, farms, and communities of the Midwest for the last decade. As within the nursing program), the the Texas Panhandle. an enrollment-dependent institution, master of allied health, and a soon- In our recently published strate- that means diversifying our student to-launch master of athletic training gic plan (called WT 125, a reference body while remaining true to our have helped sustain our graduate to our 125th anniversary), we envi- mission and values. enrollments. sion our institution 20 years from To that end, we created the In partnership with Colum- now. We lay out a strategy to carve Urban Districts Initiative, focused bus State Community College, we out a new space as a regional research on enrolling, supporting, and grad- created a dual-admission program university — a classification category uating underserved, low-income with shared academic advising that that currently does not exist. We be- students from central Ohio’s urban gives students a unified academic lieve that being responsive to the ru- districts. Our faculty has adopted a experience on two campuses, elimi- ral needs of West Texas will make us framework that Otterbein must be a nates transfer barriers, and offers one more attractive not only to students “student-ready” campus, rather than of the most affordable pathways to a with whom we share geography, but a campus looking for “college-ready” bachelor’s degree. also to those in many other rural students. Recently Otterbein ex- The results of this work are truly regions in the nation and the world. panded the initiative statewide with impactful. Since 2015, our under- (We have about 250 international the Opportunity Scholarship, which graduate degree-seeking enrollment students on our Canyon campus and meets full-need tuition for Ohio res- is up 167 students, or 7.5 percent an online presence in 27 countries.) idents whose families earn less than — all from new programs or under- Although rural Americans make $60,000 or who are Pell-eligible, by served, low-income students. Equally up just 20 percent of the U.S. popula- covering tuition costs not covered by important: Our retention rate is up 6 tion, we see a niche we can fill, since state and federal aid. This increase percentage points (to 83 percent), and most universities are more likely to in institutional need-based aid allows our four-year graduation rate is up 9 recruit students in dense population Otterbein to serve students who percentage points (to 60 percent). By centers. For example, we recently would not have considered us in the assessing the challenges of demo- launched an online doctoral program past. As a result, a third of our enter- graphic change as they began and in education leadership that focuses ing students are now Pell-eligible. responding strategically, Otterbein is on leadership of small school districts. We added academic programs a step ahead of many universities that That program enrolled 30 doctoral that are distinctive or meet a are just beginning to respond to this students in its first year — double growing need in our community. crisis. We have also developed a road what we expected — and demand has Our Zoo and Conservation Sci- map for our future success. since exceeded our capacity. ence program is one of a handful In undergraduate admissions, in of programs nationally that pro- 2019 we launched the WT Principal’s vide undergraduate internship and Michael J. Knox Scholars program, which “deputized” research opportunities in zoos and West Texas A&M U. high-school principals to identify up conservation programs around the to five graduating students for direct A public university’s selling world. The addition of systems en- admission to WT. We accept those points: low cost, high quality, gineering led to the creation of The students solely based on the recom- rural values Point, a unique STEAM Innovation mendations of principals in school Center covering science, technolo- West Texas A&M University is districts we serve, and of principals gy, engineering, arts, and math. It fortunate to be located within a state of small high schools statewide. The brings together academic programs, that, unlike many others, has a grow- students do not need to go through

the chronicle of higher education 69 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is FORUM

the formal admissions process or diversity and serving the needs our master’s-degree programs. Our pay an application fee. The program of all our students. faculty and academic affairs divisions contributed to an almost 10-percent • Forming strategic partner- are keenly aware of the headwinds boost in our freshman class in fall ships with several regional, and are constantly evaluating poten- 2019. We are working on obtaining four-year institutions. While tial areas of expansion that sync with scholarship money for the program these colleges previously may institutional strengths and priorities. and will review the success rates of its have rejected applicants that did Equally as important as academ- students. not meet academic admissions ic infrastructure, we have increased Finally, we work to keep a cost standards, they are now working our housing capacity and have made structure that is among the most with us to give those students a many improvements to facilities that competitive in the country. That better chance to succeed. When support student life. It is important sweet spot where high quality and they are ready, students transfer for our university’s history and ethos low cost meet makes a compelling to our four-year partners. This is to position ourselves in a way that recruiting pitch. proving to be a valuable partner- focuses on student well-being and ship for us, the four-year institu- student success. tions, and the students. The conversations around Kirk D. Young changing demographics have in- Jamestown We are also aggressively pursu- spired us to cast a wider net when it Community College ing additional academic programs, comes to our student demographics. seeking funding to help students We have been actively recruiting stu- A community college in the Rust with expenses other than tuition, dents throughout different regions in Belt grows more diverse hiring additional recruitment the United States and have started to At our college we are undertak- counselors, investing heavily in make strides to enroll students from ing a number of strategies to try to digital marketing, and leveraging our other nations. address the very challenging situa- social-media outlets. In terms of student profile, we tion we are facing in rural upstate have made a conscious decision to New York. I have worked all over become more selective in those we the country in enrollment manage- Corry D. Unis admit. Our acceptance rate has fallen ment, and working in the Rust Belt more than 14 percentage points in the presents a number of significant Fairfield U. last five years, and average GPAs and challenges. The most serious is the standardized test scores have risen. decline in our region’s population, Using demographic challenges to We believe our increased academic from which we have always drawn shape priorities profile will help us shape the class in most of our students. As we develop the next version meaningful ways that will assist us in We are taking a number of steps of our strategic plan (adopted in a competitive enrollment landscape. to try to mitigate the impact of these 2014), Fairfield University, in Con- As for our enrollment-manage- demographic changes. They include: necticut, has taken an aggressive ment process, we have made tremen- approach to prepare for forthcoming dous strides in our analytical capabil- • Broadening our reach. We demographic challenges. Fairfield ities and have made investments for are significantly increasing our has made significant investments in deeper data analysis. Our enrollment investment in out-of-state and our academic infrastructure, with team understands the importance international recruitment. We new facilities for our Egan School of of data-driven decisions and how have also invested significantly Nursing and Health Studies and our modeling can assist us with accom- in recruiting in New York City. Dolan School of Business. These plishing complex goals. As a result, our student body is modern facilities allow students to The challenges facing higher rapidly becoming more diverse receive a cutting-edge academic education have actually been helpful — something that is very new to experience focused on successful in our strategic-planning process by our community. student outcomes. helping us to synthesize what our in- • Supporting diversity. As our We have added degrees at both stitutional priorities should be, and by college becomes more diverse the undergraduate and graduate lev- allowing us to build consensus about than the local population, we els, and found ways to create seam- our strengths as a modern, Jesuit must do a better job as an insti- less pathways for our undergraduate university that is values-based, stu- tution at recognizing the value of students to directly matriculate into dent-centric, and outcomes-focused.

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 70 the chronicle of higher education Andrea Felder Lastly, the university intends to to both domestic and international improve the educational value and students who value immersive educa- American U. experience for transfer students and tional opportunities. student veterans so that AU becomes Innovative program offerings Expanding opportunities to study a destination institution for these also can attract new audiences. Spe- in the nation’s capital two growing student populations. cifically, Northeastern’s ever-grow- Because of our location in As AU welcomes these students to ing list of 130-plus combined majors Washington, D.C., American campus, we must also consider if represent unique, hybrid degree University has been able to draw we are providing the support and programs that encourage students students from across the United services necessary for these students to explore multiple academic fields States and around the world. How- to succeed. without increasing cost and time to ever, we draw our largest number complete the degree. These com- of applicants and matriculants from bined majors, which include degrees the mid-Atlantic and Northeastern Sundar Kumarasamy pairing physics and music or com- regions of the U.S. — areas expected Northeastern U. puter science and sociology, to name to experience declines in the num- a few, reflect Northeastern’s vision ber of high-school graduates in the A global emphasis and innovative of becoming a model of interdisci- coming years. Among other prior- majors draw new students plinary collaboration. Solutions to ities, our university’s new five-year At Northeastern University, society’s most pressing problems are strategic plan — Changemakers for a we are acutely aware of macro-level addressed by blending knowledge Changing World — seeks to address trends that will affect the higher-ed- across multiple disciplines. future demographic challenges. ucation landscape in the coming Furthermore, as demograph- While AU will continue to years. In light of many projected ic shifts take place and the world recruit talented and diverse stu- changes, Northeastern has embarked around us continues to rapidly evolve dents nationally and globally, the on a bold strategic plan centered in the age of artificial intelligence, university aims to build stronger around the creation of a global uni- the way in which we evaluate stu- connections with the Washington versity system that gives students the dents as being a fit for Northeastern region. Specific to enrollment, the opportunity to learn from wherever also requires adaptation. Increas- university aims to expand educa- in the world they are. ingly, professional success requires tional opportunities for regional Building upon our expertise in a new set of skills that combines an students who have not traditionally experiential learning, the universi- understanding of the highly techni- sought higher education at American ty’s expanding network of campuses cal environment that surrounds us, University. AU will broaden its du- and academic partners across the coupled with uniquely human qual- al-enrollment partnerships between globe positions us to tap into new ities such as creativity and mental our School of Education and D.C. markets and to attract students by flexibility. Public Schools to create a pipeline offering a differentiated educational To this end, Northeastern of students focused on education experience — one that facilitates continues to explore ways of evaluat- and teacher preparation. In addition, student mobility; provides immer- ing students beyond the traditional we will refine our recruitment and sive, experiential-based learning methods of standardized-test scores financial-aid strategies to encourage opportunities; and offers flexible and grades, instead looking toward marginalized communities, in D.C. options to existing semester-based evaluation methods that showcase and elsewhere, that are traditionally course and program structures. For competencies across literacies in left out of higher education to apply example, in 2019 we invited a small technology, data, entrepreneurship, and enroll at American University. cohort of first-year students to enter creativity, and ethical decision-mak- We will continue to expand our the Global Engagement Program, ing. Our focus is on identifying and pipeline of international students an interdisciplinary undergraduate attracting students who are multidi- via English-pathway programs. We experience in which students rotate mensional, take an interdisciplinary also intend to create regional hubs among London, Boston, Seattle, approach to problem-solving, and around the globe that will leverage and San Francisco during their four show a passion for pursuing an edu- existing relationships with school years. The continued build-out of cation that transcends the artificial counselors, alumni, parents, and our global university system and boundaries of place and circum- other friends of the university to the unique experiences we can offer stance that, for far too long, have recruit global students to AU. will become increasingly attractive constrained higher education.

the chronicle of higher education 71 t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is Further Reading

“Admissions and Enrollment,” Idea Lab Collection, The Chronicle of Higher Education, September 2018

“Boston’s Colleges Are Going Broke — and We May All Have to Pay,” by Michael Damiano, Boston Magazine, January 29, 2019

“College Presidents Discuss Enrollment Declines, Volatility in Higher Ed,” by Emily Brown, University Business, September 11, 2019

“The Coming College Enrollment Bust,” by Justin Fox, Bloomberg, May 30, 2019

Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, by Nathan D. Grawe, Johns Hopkins University Press, 2018

“Enrollments Dropped 1.7 Percent This Spring From a Year Ago,” by Dan Berrett, The Chronicle of Higher Education, May 30, 2019

“Enrollment Shortfalls Spread to More Colleges,” by Eric Kelderman, The Chronicle of Higher Education, May 20, 2019

“Higher Education is Headed for a Supply and Demand Crisis,” by Jeff Selingo, The Washington Post, January 28, 2018

“How 2,600+ Students and Parents Perceive Catholic Colleges Today,” by Sarah Parrott, EAB, February 4, 2019

“Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates,” by Peace Bransberger and Demarée K. Michelau, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), December 2016

“Private Colleges in Peril,” by Stephen Eide, Education Next, fall 2018

“Survival of the Proactive,” by Colleen Flaherty, Inside Higher Ed, January 28, 2019

“Term Enrollment Estimates,” National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, spring 2019

“2019 Survey of College and Admissions Leaders,” Inside Higher Ed and Gallup, 2019

“With Enrollment Sliding, Liberal Arts Colleges Struggle to Make a Case for Themselves,” by Jon Marcus, The Hechinger Report, May 18, 2018

“Why Enrollment Is Shrinking at Many American Colleges,” by Richard Vedder, Forbes, July 5, 2018

t he l o oming e nr ol l me n t c r is is 72 the chronicle of higher education ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Eric Kelderman, a senior re- Lee Gardner, a senior report- porter at The Chronicle, focuses er at The Chronicle, covers the on federal and state policy, the management of colleges and future of public higher education, universities and the ways in and accreditation. He speaks reg- which leaders navigate change. ularly about these issues at high- He also writes about facilities, er-education conferences and in advancement, higher-education broadcast-media interviews. He marketing and branding, and also occasionally covers legal is- the forces changing tradition- sues and music for The Chronicle. al college models. He formerly In 2010, Kelderman was part of a team of Chronicle reserved as editor of the Finance and Policy section, over- porters that won first prize from the Education Writers seeing The Chronicle’s coverage of state and federal gov- Association for a series of articles about philanthropy’s ernment, for-profit colleges, and the business of higher influence on higher education. He joinedThe Chronicle education. His recent work includes a series of articles in 2008 from Stateline.org, at the time a project of the on how public comprehensive universities across the Pew Research Center. He also covered education and country are trying to adapt to shifting demographics state politics for the Gazette newspapers, in Montgomery and questions about their missions. Before joining The County, Md. Kelderman holds a bachelor’s degree in mu- Chronicle in 2012, Gardner spent nine years as editor in sic from Luther College and master’s degrees in journal- chief of Baltimore City Paper. ism as well as in music theory and composition.

Lawrence Biemiller, Kelly Field, Ruth Hammond, Maura Mahoney, and Alina Tugend contributed to this report.

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The changes roiling Pressures have Mounting financial academe today are mounted in recent pressures and more complex than decades: rising labor increased compe- ever, and provide costs, falling public tition for students plenty of reasons funding, suppressed are pushing more why a college leader tuition revenue, colleges to re-eval- might need to have and demographic uate their academic a tough conversation changes. Understand programs. But before with faculty members, the market forces proposing — or even students, administra- bearing down on considering — chang- tion, or other key groups on campus. Learn colleges, identify the internal challenges es to the academic lineup, campus leaders how to communicate and manage even that hold you back, and explore strategies need to take stock. Learn how to approach the most complex challenges. Few enjoy to leverage both tradition and innovation to a program audit or prioritization process difficult conversations in the workplace, but pivot in new directions. and where to go from there. certain strategies and practices are more likely to lead to productive dialogue and positive change. Browse these and other titles at chronicle.com/store Explore the Store No matter your area of expertise or where you are in your career, the right information is critical to succeeding in a rapidly changing world. Visit the Chronicle Store to get more of the essential tools, data, and insights you need to make the best decisions for your students, your institution, and your career. Chronicle.com/TheStore rom breaking news to key insights to real-world advice, The Chronicle of Higher Education is dedicated to serving academic leaders and professionals. Our newsletters, subscriptions, special reports, and Fexclusive data projects provide a comprehensive view of the latest trends and critical issues affecting academe. For more than 50 years, higher-education professionals from around the world have trusted The Chronicle’s in-depth reporting and analysis to understand their world and make informed decisions. THE CHRONICLE of Higher Education®

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