The Looming Enrollment Crisis How colleges are responding to shifting demographics and new student needs 2015 2020 2025 2030 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section 1 4 A Turbulent Future for Enrollment Most colleges can no longer count on students simply showing up on their doorstep every year: Financial worries, declining birth rates, and growing skepticism about the value of college portend a major enrollment crisis. For some colleges, that’s already arrived. Data tables show enrollment patterns nationwide. • Figures from 42 colleges compare 2019 fall enrollment with that of the previous year. Section 2 18 Weathering the Storm The enrollment crisis provides an opportunity for colleges to do some deep thinking about who they are, who they serve, and, in some extreme cases, whether they should merge or close. • A Chronicle survey of 262 enrollment officers uncovers anxiety as well optimism. Section 3 36 How Colleges are Responding: 10 Case Studies Some of the takeaways: Know your students, offer the right mix of academic programs, watch your costs. And don’t be afraid to try something new. Section 4 58 Enrollment Experts Speak Out Those on the front line discuss strategies, fears, and the future. 72 Further Reading ©2019 by The Chronicle of Higher Education, Inc. All rights the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain forwarded (even for internal use), hosted online, distributed, or other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law. For transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, bulk orders or special requests, contact The Chronicle at recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without [email protected]. SECTION 1 This group of seventh-grade students will enter the 12th grade in 2025. GREENPORT UNION FREE SCHOOL DISTRICT TAKEAWAYS Declining birthrates, financial concerns, and questions about the val- A Turbulent Future ue of college are widely expected to lead to an enrollment crisis. States in the Northeast and Upper Midwest will for Enrollment see the biggest decline in high-school gradu- ates. By ERIC KELDERMAN The pool of likely stu- dents is expected to be- igher education finds itself in the outer band of come much smaller and a massive and slow-moving storm, threatened by more racially diverse. years of financial strain, a downturn in the nation’s Some colleges will have birthrate, and growing skepticism about the price to make difficult choices and value of a college degree. about their enrollment The fallout from the Great Recession has left practices, academic of- institutions more dependent on tuition revenue ferings, and makeup of than ever before, even as students and families their student body. find it harder to afford college. Concerns about The most-selective pri- tuition and student-loan debt are making poten- vate colleges and public tial students far more discerning about how much flagships are expected they are willing to spend and where they enroll. to fare the best. Enrollment has already begun to fall after the peak of the 2008 Colleges cannot control recession, and by fall 2019 even some selective colleges — which rarely demographics but can have had to worry about filling their classes — missed their enrollment improve retention and Hgoals. In just a few years, the pool of likely college students is expect- graduation rates. ed to become much smaller and more racially diverse. States in the Northeast and Upper Midwest, which have the greatest concentration of colleges, will see the biggest decline in high-school graduates. the chronicle of higher education 5 THE LOOMING ENROLLMENT CRISIS All of this means that some types of insti- cost of providing a college degree, while sup- tutions can expect major difficulties in meet- port from states and the federal government ing enrollment and revenue goals. At worst, has not. The result has been that institutions recruiting the right mix of the students who are increasingly reliant on that tuition, rather can both afford tuition and succeed in college than on government subsidies, to meet their will become an existential challenge for many budgets. At the same time, students are paying institutions over the next decade and beyond. more to cover the cost of college. At the least, it will force some colleges to At public four-year colleges, net tuition make difficult choices about their enrollment per student (not including grant aid) has dou- practices and academic offerings, as well as bled over the past 20 years, from $1,870 in the the size and makeup of their student body. 1998-99 academic year to $3,740 in 2018-19, “If you can’t get the best class, what’s the in constant 2018 dollars, according to the Col- way forward?” asks Stefanie Niles, vice pres- lege Board. Net tuition at private nonprofit ident for enrollment and communications at colleges grew much more slowly over the same Ohio Wesleyan University. “My institution period, from $12,750 to $14,610. has started some difficult conversations about State appropriations per full-time student not growing but actually getting smaller, fell from $9,290 in 1998 to $7,900 in 2018, ac- to get more students who are likely to com- cording to figures from the State Higher Edu- plete their degrees.” Niles is president of the cation Executive Officers Association (known National Association for College Admission as Sheeo). A quarter-century ago, revenue Counseling, known as NACAC. from tuition accounted for 31 percent of the education budgets of colleges and universities. HOW WE GOT HERE In 2018 it was 47 percent, according to the as- sociation. The looming challenges represent a new set of problems for a sector that has experi- IT’S THE ECONOMY enced continued growth since the mid-20th century. The recession of 2008 brought many of Total fall enrollment in higher education higher education’s financial challenges into has increased from about 8.6 million in 1970 to sharp focus. As often happens during eco- nearly 20 million in 2018, according to federal nomic downturns, enrollment soared, increas- data. Over the same period, the percentage of ing nearly 10 percent nationally from 2008 to the U.S. population with a four-year degree 2011, as state budgets tanked and endowment or higher has grown from just 11 percent to values plunged. 34 percent, the National Center for Education The long recovery since that time has Statistics reports. stabilized some parts of the economy, yet fi- The growth was fueled, initially, by fed- eral money from the GI Bill, which paved the way for more than two million veterans of World War II to earn college degrees, creat- “ My institution has started ing an expectation for their children, the baby boomers, to follow suit. The federal invest- ment has increased considerably since then, some difficult conversations with Pell Grants for low-income students, money to support work-study programs on about not growing but actually campus, and loans backed and now issued by the government. States, too, made large investments in getting smaller, to get more higher education, with direct support of pub- lic campuses, scholarships for students there, students who are likely to and, in some states, grants to in-state students who attend private colleges. But as enrollment has grown, so has the complete their degrees.” THE LOOMING ENROLLMENT CRISIS 6 the chronicle of higher education ANDREW SPEAR Stefanie Niles, vice president for enrollment and communications at Ohio Wesleyan University, says liberal-arts institutions like hers will be more pressed by families on how educational offerings connect to career goals. Here, Niles (center) talks to prospective students. nancial conditions in certain sectors of higher source — the student share — remains at a education seem to be as tenuous as ever. En- near high.” rollments, overall, have now fallen for seven The fragility of some public institutions consecutive years, but remain higher than comes into relief in states like Alaska, where they were before the recession. the governor slashed 41 percent of the univer- For the second year in a row, Moody’s sity system’s budget in July 2019, leading to a Investors Service issued a negative outlook vote on financial exigency and plans for major for higher education in 2019, saying that op- reductions in faculty and programs, and the erating expenses, such as the cost of labor, possibility of campus closures or mergers. will grow faster than tuition revenue. Falling After a political backlash, the governor enrollments play a part in that, the analysts agreed to lessen the cuts, but plans remain for wrote, because many students were opting for some faculty layoffs, and the system is moving employment as the economy grew. And com- forward with a controversial plan to consoli- petition for the shrinking number of students date its accreditation. means that colleges will seek to keep the price Private colleges are facing their own set of of tuition as low as possible. problems in the aftermath of the recession, re- The Sheeo annual report on state finances lated to stagnant family incomes and concerns in 2019 concluded that a decade after the start about the price and value of college. As both of the recession, “state funding for higher ed- operating costs and tuition prices have risen, ucation has only halfway recovered, while the private colleges have repeatedly increased the growing reliance on net tuition as a revenue tuition discounts they offer in the form of the chronicle of higher education 7 THE LOOMING ENROLLMENT CRISIS DATA A New Set of Challenges FINANCIAL PRESSURES ENROLLMENT IS ALREADY FALLING For the second year in a row, Recent semesters have brought fewer students, except in Moody’s Investors Service posted 2018-19 at four-year private nonprofit colleges.