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    J. Quant. Anal. Sports 2020; aop Ian G. Ludden*, Arash Khatibi, Douglas M. King and Sheldon H. Jacobson Models for generating NCAA men’s basketball tournament bracket pools https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2019-0022 of all six rounds. The tournament attracts popular atten- tion throughout the United States; before the tournament Abstract: Each year, the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball begins, many fans participate in bracket challenges where bracket Tournament attracts popular attention, including they pick the winner of each of the tournament’s 63 games challenges where fans seek to pick the winners of the (the First Four play-in games are not included in any such tournament’s games. However, the quantity and unpre- challenges). The term bracket, originally used to describe dictable nature of games suggest a single bracket will the structure of a sports tournament, is also used colloqui- likely select some winning teams incorrectly even if cre- ally to refer to a “filled-out” bracket, that is, a complete ated with insightful and sophisticated methods. Hence, set of game predictions for a tournament. As the tourna- rather than focusing on creating a single bracket to per- ment progresses, all of the submitted brackets are scored form well, a challenge participant may wish to create a based on their correct picks, with correct picks in later pool of brackets that likely contains at least one high- rounds typically earning more points than correct picks scoring bracket. This paper proposes a power model to in earlier rounds. The unpredictable nature of game out- estimate tournament outcome probabilities based on past comes and the large number of games suggest that a single tournament data.
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