The First Four: A Historical Analysis Of The Expansion Of The NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament To 68 Teams And The Performance Of Teams Selected To Play In The Opening Round Presented by: Dr. David Zinn (Misericordia University, PA) INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND 16-SEEDS IN THE FIRST FOUR REPRESENTATION OF SUCCESS OF FIRST FOUR In 1939, the first NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament was 16-Seeds Advancing From First Four In Next Round Of TEAMS/CONFERENCES Games in Dayton Have Generally Been Competitive: • 8 of 18 Games (44.4%) Played Between 16-Seeds Have held in Evanston, IL and culminated with the University of Tournament: 16 Seeds In First Four (Teams): Been Decided By Less Than 4 Points Oregon defeating Ohio State (46-33) in the National 0-18 (.000 Winning Percentage) • 30 Different Teams Have Filled These 36 Spots • Only 3 of Those Games (16.6%) Have Been Decided By Championship game. However, that inaugural tournament • Four Teams (Fairleigh-Dickinson, Long Island-Brooklyn, More Than 12 Points featured only 8 teams (Brown, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Average Loss in Next Round for 16-Seeds Advancing Mount Saint Mary’s, & Texas Southern Have Played in • Average Score Differential Has Been 8.3 Points, 7.1 If Oregon, Texas, Utah State, Villanova, and Wake Forest). From First Four: Dayton Twice Excluding Florida Gulf Coast’s 31-Point Victory in 2015 24.0 Points • One Team (North Carolina Central) Was Chosen Three • 10 of 18 Games (55.5%) Played Between Non-16 Seeds The Tournament field would not double to 16 teams until Years In A Row (2017, 2018, 2019) 1951 and then would not expand again until 1975 when 32 16-Seeds All-Time in NCAA Tournament: Have Been Decided By Less Than 10 Points, Including 5 of Last 6 Games Over Last 3 Tournaments teams, including non-conference champions for the first time, 1-135 (.007 Winning Percentage) 16 Seeds in First Four (Conferences): • Average Score Differential Has Been 9.5 Points With One were invited to play. • 13 Different Conferences Have Sent Their Tournament Double-Digit Win (Tennessee Over Iowa in 2014) Average Loss of 16-Seeds in NCAA Tournament Since Champion To Dayton Occurring in Overtime Expansion then occurred rapidly as the field grew five times 2011: • Northeastern Conference (NEC) Has Been Sent to Dayton in the next ten years, increasing from 32 to 40 (1979), to 48 17.8 Points (20.1 Points If Removing #16 UMBC’s 74-54 7 Times Games Have Been Well-Received: (1980) to 52 (1983) to 53 (1984) and finally to 64 in 1985. Victory Over #1 Virginia In 2018) • Southwest Conference (SWAC) Has Been Represented 6 • First Four Is Scheduled for Dayton Through At Least 2022 Times • University of Dayton Has Attracted Large Crowds For When the Mountain West joined the ranks of NCAA Division I • Mid-Eastern Conference (MEAC) Has Been Represented Basketball Since 1950s And Usually Ranks Among Top in 1999 and received an automatic berth to the 5 Times 25 In Nation In Average Home Attendance championship tournament in 2001, the number of automatic • Big South And Southland Have Been In Dayton 3 Times qualifiers to the Men’s NCAA Tournament increased to 31. Overall, 16-seeds In The First Four Have Performed 4 to • Dayton, OH Is 64th Largest Broadcast Market In USA…But Is A Top 10 Market For College Basketball Rather than eliminate an at-large bid, the tournament 6 Points Worse In Terms Of Margin Of Loss When Sun Belt Has Sent Representative to Dayton 3 Times, Twice • Despite Low-Seeded Teams, Each Game Is Typically expanded to 65 teams and added one Opening Round Compared To 16-seeds That Have Not Had To Participate As A #16-Seed And Once As An #11-Seed game, having the two lowest seeds play each other to enter In This Extra Round Contest Attended By 12,000+ Fans • First Four Brings In Estimated $4.5 Million In Economic the final field of 64. Non-16 Seeds in First Four (Teams): Impact To The Dayton Area • 32 Different Teams Have Filled These 36 Spots In 2011, the tournament was further expanded to 68 teams PERFORMANCE OF NON-16 SEEDS • Four Teams (Arizona State, Boise State, Brigham Young, by adding three more at-large bids to create three more PLAYING IN THE FIRST FOUR & Southern Cal) Have Appeared in Dayton Twice; No ARGUMENTS AGAINST EXPANSION games to open March Madness with what has become Other Non-16 Seeds Have Appeared More Than Once known and trademarked as “The First Four” Non-16 Seeds Advancing from First Four into Next Rounds of Tournament: The First Four Has Been Successful But It Might Not Non-16 Seeds in First Four (Conferences): 8-10 (.444 Winning Percentage) In Round of 64 Provide Justification For Tournament Expansion: The First Four, having been played in Dayton, OH since its • 16 Different Conferences Have Been Represented in inception features 8 teams, the four lowest-seeded automatic 15-11 (.557 Winning Percentage) Overall • Low Seeds Have Historically Not Been A Real Threat To Dayton Win National Title qualifiers and the four lowest-seeded at large-teams. The • Pac-12 Has Played in Dayton 6 Times, including Two All-Time Win Percentage Of #11 And #12-seeds (Making • Since NCAA Tournament Expanded To 64 Teams, 136 teams play in subsets with the automatic qualifiers and the Teams (Arizona State & UCLA) in Same Year (2018) Up Majority Of Non-16s In The First Four) In First Round Teams Have Made The Final Four, But Only 5 Of Those at-large teams playing against each other for the right to • Two Conferences (Big East & ACC) Have Been Games Have Been Double-Digit Seeds advance and become one of the remaining 64 teams in the Represented 4 Times tournament. Approximately 33% • Of The Four 11-Seeds That Have Reached The Final • Three Conferences (Atlantic-10, SEC, & West Coast) Four, None Made It To The Championship Game, Losing Have Been Represented 3 Times However, these teams are also tasked with extra travel, less Four Teams From The First Four Have Advanced Past By An Average Of 11.5 Points In The National Semifinal The Next Two Rounds And Into The Sweet Sixteen • Only 1 First Four Team Has Advanced Past Sweet 16 preparation time, and an extra game in the pursuit of the HBCU Representation Virginia Commonwealth (2011) • These Numbers Do Not Necessarily Indicate Expanding National Championship. This raises the question of • At Least One Historically Black College Or University Has LaSalle (2013) The Tournament Will Lead To Another Title Contender competitive fairness to these teams and whether the Been Sent To Dayton Every Year Except 2019 When Two Tennessee (2014) tournament, as a whole, benefits from this opening round. Teams (North Carolina Central And Prairie View A&M) Syracuse (2018) SELECTED REFERENCES Played In The First Four Feinstein, J. (2020). The back roads to March: The unsung, PURPOSE unheralded, and unknown heroes of a college basketball season. New Tennessee & Syracuse Both Came Within 4 Points Of TRAVEL/PREP TIME CONSIDERATIONS York, NY: Doubleday. The purpose of this conceptual analysis is to review the Advancing To The Elite Eight FOR FIRST FOUR Greer, J. (2018, February 20). University of Louisville has lost its 2013 history of The First Four in the Men’s Basketball Tournament national championship banner. Courier Journal. https://www.courier- and consider if there is a competitive disadvantage to the One Team (Virginia Commonwealth) Advanced From The Potential Competitive Disadvantage: journal.com/story/sports/college/louisville/2018/02/20/louisville- teams assigned to play an extra round game. Additionally, as First Four All The Way To The Final Four In 2011 • First Four Participants Spend Two Days Following basketball-ncaa-infractions-appeal-ruling/1032556001/ the Atlantic Coast Conference called for a greatly expanded VCU Defeated Southern Cal In The First Four And Then Selection Sunday Preparing For And Traveling To Dayton, tournament during the 2020-2021 season affected by COVID Upset #6-Seed Georgetown, #3-Seed Purdue, #10-Seed Schoettle, A. (2009, Dec. 14-20). Big Dance may get bigger: Expanded Playing A Late-Night Game, And Flying To Another Site To men’s tournament could go from 65 to 96 teams. Indianapolis Business and Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim is on record of suggesting Florida State, And #1-Seed Kansas Before Falling To Play Again A Day Later Compared To The #1 Or #6-Seed Journal, 30(42), 1, 30. the ideal field size would include a 96-team tournament Eventual National Runner-Up Butler In The Final Four That Was Sent Straight To The “Second Round” featuring opening round games for all but the top 32 teams, One Example – 2018: Wilco, D. (2019). What is the lowest seed to make the Final Four? this research may provide a timely review of how teams • Sun. March 11: Announced That #11-Seed St. NCAA.com. https://www.ncaa. com/news/basketball-men/article/2019- participating in The First Four have ultimately performed in Overall, Non-16 Seeds In The First Four Tend To Win Bonaventure Would Play #11-Seed UCLA In Dayton 02-05/what-lowest-seed-make-final-four the NCAA Championships and whether or not this provides Their Next Round Game Far More Often Than #11 And • Tue, March 13: St. Bonaventure Defeated UCLA Wilco, D. (2018). The best NCAA tournament runs by a First Four any data to consider toward the further expansion of the #12-Seeds Historically Do Without Playing This Extra • Thu, March 15: St. Bonaventure Lost To #6-Seed Florida team. NCAA News, 4.