May 11, 2020
Thai Enquirer Summary
Economic News
The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) chairman Supant Mongkolsuthree reportedly sought a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak to address temporary closures of hotels due to the COVID-19 crisis.
The FTI chairman has proposed the government to set up a working committee comprising members from various sectors to address hotel closures amid further concerns that the pandemic may force some operators to sell off their assets to foreign investors at a cheap price.
Mr Suphant said once given the greenlight the committee will hold talks with the Thai Hotels Association (THA) to assist small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with no more than 200 rooms and discuss the idea of setting up an equity fund to allow interested parties to buy stakes in struggling hotel businesses.
According to THA’s statistics, 27 hotel operators in Bangkok decided to temporarily shut their doors since the Covid-19 outbreak while 52 hotels in Phuket continue to announce temporary shutdown from May to October.
The 2020 tourism revenue is poised to decline by 59% as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Tourism and Sports Minister Pipat Ratchakitprakan admitted.
The decline is a result of a drop in the number of foreign tourists visiting Thailand. The Ministry estimated Thailand will receive merely 18 million international
tourists this year, generating around 828 billion baht in tourism revenue. The figures contrast to the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT)’s projection of more than 40 million tourists, as the highest number of international tourists Thailand might achieve this year.
The TAT forecast a 4% growth in domestic tourist travel as it has set a target of 172 million domestic trips, generating around 1.13 trillion baht in revenue this year whilst the foreign market down sharply. The TAT predicted 40.78 million foreign arrivals for the full year, up 2.5% from last year, generating 20.3 trillion baht.
The Finance Ministry website for the online registration for the 5,000 baht cash handout scheme is due to close today (May 11), with the total number of people qualified for the program standing at 13.9 million so far.
The Ministry pledged to complete the revision of more than 1 million applicants who were rejected for the 5,000-baht cash handout by May 17 while it is planning to transfer money to additional 2.4 million people this week.
As the COVID-19 situation in Thailand continues to improve, Prime Minister General Prayuth Chan o-cha will chair a meeting on May 15 to finalise businesses and venues that will be reopened in the second phase of restriction ease.
A test run on the reopening of shopping malls and department stores will be conducted during May 14-15. The 2nd phase of easing restrictions is set to take effect which include the reopening of bigger premises such as shopping malls and departmental stores on May 17.
Consumer confidence slumped to a 21-year low in April as the public remained worried about the poor economy, unemployment and future income because of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).
The consumer confidence index (CCI) fell to 47.2 last month from 50.3 in March, the 14th straight monthly decline and the lowest level since October 1999.
Thanavath Phonvichai, director of the UTCC’s Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting, said economic conditions are at a critical level and consumer spending is unlikely to recover for at least 3-6 months until the pandemic is under control, all business sectors are allowed to reopen and the government’s stimulus measures produce concrete results for the economy.
The lower confidence stems from consumers’ expectation that the economy will fall into a depression.
The UTCC warned that the pandemic will cause damage of up to 1.5 trillion baht in the first half of the year, including 700 billion baht in lost tourism revenue, 300 billion baht from lower private consumption and the rest from lower exports and border trade.
Mr Thanavath said the recent easing of measures for certain businesses by the government is estimated to result in up to 3 billion baht in additional spending per day.
The opposition to pumping in 80-200 billion baht into the troubled Thai Airways International Plc (THAI) has been growing with the media and the public all coming out to say that the national airline should be allowed to go under.
The move was also supported by 2 of the main coalition partners of the incumbent coalition – Bhumjai Thai and Democrat party.
Members of both Bhumjai Thai and Democrat party (Anuthin Charnvirakul, Saksayam Chidchob both of Bhumjai Thai party and
Democrat party’s Thavorn Senniam) went to meet Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to tell him about their decision to let the airline go under.
They said that the rehabilitation plan of Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak, was flawed as it would require injection of close to 200 billion baht of funds from the state
This they said could go higher and it may not have much of an impact on the trimming of the excess number of employees.
The airline has 21,323 full time employees The plan is to have 20% of the employees go but that would require 8.85 billion baht in compensation and they would be laid- off over a period of 3-years
The 21,323 employees does not include the nearly 8,000 employees that are under contract
Meanwhile Thai Airways International (THAI) workers’ union proposed to Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to scrap THAI Smile Airways amid grave financial troubles at the national carrier.
During a meeting with Gen Prayut on May 8, the THAI workers’ union voiced opposition to any rehabilitation measures that would strip the government of its major shares in the airline, paying the way for the airline to become a privately- owned company.
In its statement, THAI union addressed its concern about a possible interference from outsiders over the government’s bailout plan may cover plans to reduce the Ministry of Finance’s shares from the current 51% to 48%. THAI union president Nares Peung-yaem also asked the government to allow it to have a say in the new rehabilitation process.
Labour Minister MR Chatumongol Sonakul decided to back down on his promise to pay laid-off workers registered under its social security system 75% compensation of the daily wage for workers affected by the Covid-19 outbreak amid resistance from labour activists, according to a source with the Labour Ministry.
The Labour Minister’s plan to raise compensation payments to workers insured under the Social Security Act was opposed by the Social Security Office (SSO) board.
For the time being, MR Chatumongkol plans to hold up a hike in the compensation of the daily wage for workers who lost their jobs or suspended from work due to the COVID-19 crisis to the Cabinet, the source said.
PTT Plc (PTT) is expected to post a net loss of 4.9 billion baht in the first quarter of this year, compared to a net profit of 29.3 billion baht in the same period of last year and 17.4 billion baht in the 4th quarter of last year, said KGI Securities Thailand.
The loss stems from the stock loss from lower oil prices at its subsidiaries including Thai Oil (TOP), Global Chemical Plc (PTTGC) and IRPC
Political News
The Opposition continues to push for a special House session seeking to debate 3 executive decrees on borrowing of more than 1.9 trillion baht to provide financial aid for people affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Pheu Thai Party said it would continue to lead other opposition parties to debate the 3 executive decrees as it is worrying about possible unchecked
spending of government aid money on people affected by Covid-19 mitigation policies.
Pheu Thai spokesman Anusorn Iamsa-ard said the party is now equipped with information to scrutinise the aid money to be granted from invoking 3 executive decrees related to the financing of Covid-19 relief programmes. He told the government not to take advantage of the situation of the decline in COVID-19 cases to cover up its failure in handling economic problems stemming from the crisis.
Former energy minister and Pheu Thai key member Pichai Naripthaphan called for Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to revoke the imposition of the emergency decree and loosen lockdown restrictions to allow more businesses to resume.
Mr Pichai voiced concerns over Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak’s proposal for the government’s plan to inject 400 billion baht worth of spending for local economy stimulus. Mr Pichai said he feared that this massive budget is poised to benefit Phalang Pracharat Party (PPRP) MPs who seek to secure their stake in the Cabinet amid internal rifts inside the government. The rift which stemmed from growing dissatisfaction over PPRP leader Uttama Savanayana.
Mr Somkid proposed 400 billion baht to stimulate local economies through projects aimed at creating jobs, strengthening communities and building infrastructure.
In the light of the Opposition’s plea for the House to convene a special session to debate the government’s executive decrees on borrowing, the Democrat Party has an indecisive stance on the matter.
Akaradet Wongpitak, the Democrat Party MP for Ratchaburi as spokesman of Government whips, said Democrat Party MPs are split over the push for the
House to convene a special session to address the executive loan decrees. The Kao Klai Party [Move Forward] recently pushed for an urgent motion demanding a special House session to address various issues related to the government’s financial aid to provide relief to those affected by the COVID-19 crisis.
Mr Akaradet said his party will need to find a solution to the issue before the motion is submitted to the House in order to present to Government whips.
Reports are emerging that Labour Minister MR Chatumongol Sonakul seems to be in hot position and that he may soon be replaced as the Labour Minister and possibly lose his position as the leader of the political party that was backed by the street-protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban.
His Action Coalition for Thailand (ACT) party is not too happy with the working of Mr. Chatumongol for handling of the payments to the people who have been impacted from the coronavirus by the Social Security Office.
The Social Security Office is under the management of the Labour Ministry.
Reports are that Prime Minister Gen. Prayut and Mr. Suthep are both unhappy with Mr. Chatumongol’s working.
Reports have come out that army chief Gen Apirat Kongsompong has signed an order to increase the monthly salary of 211 active-duty army officers.
Among the 211 officers who have been awarded pay rises and higher ranks are some big names in the Queen’s Guard unit or the 21st Infantry Regiment, which is the place where Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, Gen Prawit Wongsuwon and Gen Anupong Paojinda, began their careers. Such big names include Col Pichienrat Parannit, son of Gen Niphon Parannit, the former deputy army chief, who is said to be a rising star in the Queen’s Guard unit.
Others are Lt Col Rongarong Sengmee, commander of the 11th Infantry Division or the Stryker infantry Division, has been promoted as commander of the 13th
Ranger Forces Regiment, and Col Akkhaphat Thepnarong, a close aide to Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, has been promoted to deputy commander at the 11th Infantry Division.
General News
The talks about opening the malls for 2-days as a test and other talks that some of the malls would be opened as a testing for a day before allowing total opening on May 17th has been shot down by the Center for COVID-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) as saying that it was not possible.
Dr Thaweesin Visanuyothin, the spokesperson for the CCSA said that it was not possible to do such tests with a few stores and that all things would be decided in a meeting on May 15th
Meanwhile the opening of Chatuchak weekend market on May 9 was amid a subdued atmosphere, with most shops remaining shuttered and few shoppers after being closed since mid-March as part of the Government’s anti-COVID-19 lockdown measures.
The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) said it would hold talk with the State Railway of Thailand (SRT) about the waiving of rental fees at the famous weekend market from next month until November.
Most of the shoppers were Thais and all were seen wearing face masks, with some wearing face shields. However, the night market remains closed due to the night curfew.
A vast majority of people agreed with the easing of lockdown restrictions, according to results of a survey by the National Institute of Development Administration, or Nida Poll.
The survey---conducted during May 4-7 on 1,259 people aged 18 and above across the country to gauge their opinions about life in lockdown restrictions
imposed by the government---finds a vast majority of people, 83.95%, support the easing of the lockdown and 34.39% said they strongly agreed with the easing of lockdown orders as new cases in the country continue to decline. Whilst 49.56% said the relaxation would enable people to return to a normal life and resume their work.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha instructed the Internal Security Operations Command (Isoc) to survey public opinion on the emergency decree which has been extended more than 1 month in order to gauge feedback on whether the decree should be maintained or scrapped. Army chief-of-staff Gen Theerawat Boonyawat, as the Isoc secretary-general, will hold a meeting to consider the Isoc’s questionnaire tomorrow (May 12). The Isoc will allow 1 week to conduct the survey.
The Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) also launched a questionnaire via Google form seeking public opinion on the 2nd phase of relaxation of lockdown measures and opinion on the emergency decree.
The questionnaire posed 3 questions including:
Measures people would like to be lifted such as inter-provincial travel ban, 14-day quarantine, night curfew, etc.
Remedial measures that people want after the crisis such as free internet, water and electricity discount, free transportation, expanding the eligibility of people suffering from Covid-19 for aid money, etc.
Appropriate period of curfew -- 10 pm to 4am, 11pm to 4am, 12pm to 4am, or cancel the curfew.
Thailand reported 5 new coronavirus cases yesterday (May 10), the 5th consecutive day of new cases in single digit, and zero fatalities, bringing the total to 3,009 cases with the death toll remaining at 56.
Four new COVID-19 cases were reported in Phuket, said Taweesin Wisanuyothin, spokesman for the government’s Centre for COVID-19 Situation Administration. Of the new cases reported, 2 were linked to previous cases and 3 had travelled abroad.
Globally, coronavirus cases has nearly surpassed 4.2 million. The worldwide death toll topped 283,000, with the United States recording more than 81,000 deaths, the highest of any country in the world. There have been at least 1.4 million cases of the coronavirus in the U.S, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
The positive news was that the death in the United States yesterday was at 750 people, the lowest in over a month.
Political News Headlines in Thai Media
Japan broadcaster NHK recently did a simulation of how coronavirus could spread in the confined spaces of a cruise ship.
o Link- https://www.thaienquirer.com/12872/nhk-studies-shows-how-rapidly- coronavirus-can-spread-in-confined-space/
The Thai government said on Sunday that it had discovered five new cases of coronavirus infections including one new case in Bangkok.
o Link- https://www.thaienquirer.com/12864/thailand-discovers-five-new-cases-of- coronavirus-one-case-in-bangkok/
The Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) has released a questionnaire via Google form for Thais on the second phase of relaxation of lockdown measures and opinion on the emergency decree.
o Link- https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30387622?utm_source=category&utm_medium =internal_referral
Nearly half the people in a survey said they were worried that travelling across provinces could lead to a second outbreak of Covid-19, while most people agreed with the government's gradual loosening of lockdown measures.
o Link- https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30387619?utm_source=category&utm_medium =internal_referral
Thirteen flights next week are expected to bring more Thai nationals back home from 10 countries, Natapanu Nopakun, Ministry of Foreign Affairs deputy spokesperson, said on Sunday (May 10).
o Link- https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30387617?utm_source=category&utm_medium =internal_referral
The Royal Thai Navy (RTN) defended its plan to use 4,600 rai of protected forest near U- Tapao airbase in Chon Buri, saying the land is needed as a security buffer against plans for a full-fledged U-Tapao commercial airport, which will be built nearby.
o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1915796/navy-defends-forest- use-plan
The number of people violating the curfew has seen a big jump since the relaxation of lockdown measures while police crackdowns for violation of laws have led to confiscation of goods worth over Bt238 million.
o Link- https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30387616?utm_source=category&utm_mediu m=internal_referral
Great govt giveaway has many applicants feeling angry, while Progressive Movement efforts leave others puzzled-Prayut steps in to try and prevent power struggle within PPRP undermining his cabinet and efforts to overcome coronavirus outbreak
o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/politics/1915176/govt-hit-by-handout- horror
Economic News Headlines in Thai Media
The Thai Airways workers union on Sunday deleted a Facebook post which blamed Thaksin Shinawatra’s administration and THAI’s board members for the company’s continuous net losses after fierce online criticism.
o Link- https://www.thaienquirer.com/12866/thai-airways-workers-union-deletes- facebook-post-blaming-thaksin-for-losses-union-head-apologises/
Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha made headlines recently by asking the 20 richest Thai families for their help in fighting the coronavirus pandemic. Prayut said that their expertise was needed at a time when the country was going through a major crisis.
o Link- https://www.thaienquirer.com/12869/the-capitalists-the-crown-and-the- coronavirus/
The Student Union of Thailand submitted an open letter on Thursday to the Ministry of Finance demanding a universal aid program to help Thais afflicted by the coronavirus outbreak.
o Link- https://www.thaienquirer.com/12545/students-march-for-thailands-poor-calls- for-universal-basic-income/
The Labour Ministry has decided to back off from seeking a hike to 75% compensation of the daily wage for workers affected by the Covid-19 outbreak amid resistance from labour activists, a ministry source said on Sunday.
o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1915760/75-wages-compo- plan-put-on-hold
Automotive industry stakeholders are meeting this week to discuss this year's outlook and devise market strategies to boost purchasing power, as the sector has suffered considerably from the pandemic.
o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1915900/stakeholder-meeting-to- discuss-withering-outlook
IRPC Plc, the petrochemical arm of PTT Plc, plans to halve its 68.1 billion baht in budgeted capital expenditure (capex) over the next five years (2020-24) in line with falling global demand for polymers as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.
o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1915852/irpc-halves-5-year-capex- plan-as-demand-slumps
Company owners are prohibited from shutting down their business while the emergency decree is in force, while staff are banned from going on strike, a Labour Ministry announcement published in the Royal Gazette website said.
o Link- https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30387580?utm_source=category&utm_mediu m=internal_referral
Stock analysts at various securities companies see room for gain for the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index on Monday (May 11).
o Link- https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30387587?utm_source=category&utm_me dium=internal_referral
A huge majority of people agree that the restrictions imposed to limit the spread of coronavirus should be relaxed now that the situation has much improved, according to the result of an opinion survey by the National Institute of Development Administration, or Nida Poll.
o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1915616/majority-agree-with- easing-covid-19-restrictions-poll
Joint investigation by the Department of Disease Control and the Excise Department has revealed the illegal sale of canned draft beer through online channel.
o Link- https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30387606?utm_source=category&utm_mediu m=internal_referral
Advanced Info Service (AIS), the country's top mobile operator by subscribers, reported revenue of 42.8 billion baht in the first quarter, down 1% year-on-year, as the coronavirus outbreak and fierce industry competition drove down mobile business earnings.
o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1915124/ais-q1-revenue-sees-minor- dent-from-outbreak
A shopping mall will be allowed to reopen for a two-day trial period on Thursday and Friday to gauge the effectiveness of their disease control measures, Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) spokesman Taweesilp Visanuyothin said on Saturday.
o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1915344/shopping-mall-to-reopen-for- two-day-trial
The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) will extend the operating hours of Chatuchak weekend market, from 6pm to 7pm, to accommodate shoppers who prefer to visit the market in the evening, Bangkok Governor Aswin Kwanmuang said
o Link- https://www.thaipbsworld.com/bma-to-extend-operating-hours-of-chatuchak- market-to-7pm/
Issues to be watched out for
May 22, 2020 – The House is set to reconvene.
May 26, 2020 – Prosecutors has delayed a decision on charges against Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, former secretary-general of the now-defunct Future Forward Party, for alleged contempt of court after he criticized the Constitutional Court’s decision to dissolve the Thai Raksa Chart Party.
May 27-28, 2020 – The House is set to deliberate on government-sponsored executive decrees on borrowing.
May 31, 2020 – The government is expected to lift lockdown restrictions imposed under the emergency decree and the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT) is expected to lift ban on incoming flights.
July 2020 – The Expressway of Thailand (EXAT)’s planned opening schedule of the new Motorway Route 7 Section from Pattaya to Map Ta Phut.
July 15, 2020 – The House is set to deliberate on the draft budget bill for the 2021 fiscal year.
October, 2020 – The bidding for construction and operation for the 140-billion-baht Orange Line western extension linking the Thailand Cultural Centre with Bang Khun Non.
October, 2020 – The Thailand Grand Prix was rescheduled after being postponed due to the coronavirus outbreak.
Key Data
SET Index 1,266.02 +8.04
Link - https://www.set.or.th/en/company/ipo/upcoming_ipo_set.html
Global Commodities
Metal -Link http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/futures/metals/
Energy -Link - http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)-Link - http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
Global Equity Market’s Movements
Link - http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/world-indexes/asia-pacific/
Asian Equity Markets Movement
Link - http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/world-indexes/
Information on May 8, 2020
Buying, Selling or Transfer of shares by Owners/Management
Stock Code Volume Value Action
BM 500,200 0.05 Sale SKY 10,000 14.9 Sale SKY 10,000 14.6 Purchase SMART 35,500 0.95 Purchase SMART 50,000 0.96 Purchase TU 100,000 12.5 Purchase THG 4,921,301 17.8 Purchase KUN 16,500 0.9 Purchase
XD, XE or XM or other notifications
For list of Companies that have dividend payment and AGM meeting schedules click on http://www.set.or.th/set/calendarofevents.do
Trading Breakdown on the Stock Exchange of Thailand
Daily as of 8 May 2020 Unit: M.Baht Investor Type Buy Sell Net Value % Value % Value % Local Institutions 5,462.07 12.39 4,092.09 9.28 1,369.99 - Proprietary 3,223.67 7.31 3,500.91 7.94 -277.24 - Trading Foreign Investors 15,776.32 35.78 18,060.55 40.97 -2,284.23 - Local Individuals 19,624.43 44.51 18,432.94 41.81 1,191.48 - Monthly Cumulative between 1 - 8 May 2020 Unit: M.Baht Investor Type Buy Sell Net
Value % Value % Value % Local Institutions 15,242.77 10.05 17,787.30 11.72 -2,544.53 - Proprietary 11,538.75 7.61 11,923.59 7.86 -384.84 - Trading Foreign Investors 51,469.80 33.92 60,404.17 39.81 -8,934.37 - Local Individuals 73,473.42 48.43 61,609.68 40.61 11,863.74 - Yearly Cumulative since 1 Jan - 8 May 2020 Unit: M.Baht Investor Type Buy Sell Net Value % Value % Value % Local Institutions 697,428.32 12.13 650,224.78 11.31 47,203.54 - Proprietary 603,385.70 10.49 606,608.18 10.55 -3,222.48 - Trading Foreign Investors 2,083,302.59 36.23 2,254,567.73 39.21 - - 171,265.14 Local Individuals 2,366,576.90 41.15 2,239,292.83 38.94 127,284.07 -
Total Trading Value 44,086.49 Million Baht.
Background Information –
The strength of each party in the Thai Parliament as of May 8, 2019 as per the report by the Election Commission of Thailand. Elections took place on March 24, 2019
https://www.ect.go.th/ect_th/news_all.php?cid=24
List of MPs - https://www.ect.go.th/ect_th/download/article/article_20190508184334.pdf
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