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Emerging Technologies White Paper

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Emerging Technologies White Paper Table of Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 1 Technology and Societal Trends Impacting Transportation .......................................................................... 3 Mobility as a Service ................................................................................................................................................................ 4 Public transit ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Micromobility ................................................................................................................................................................................ 7 Ridehail .............................................................................................................................................................................................9 Carshare .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Rideshare ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Microtransit .................................................................................................................................................................................. 14 Last mile delivery ..................................................................................................................................................................... 16 MaaS in Action ........................................................................................................................................................................... 18 Vehicle Technologies ...........................................................................................................................................................20 Electric and Other Zero-Emission Vehicles..........................................................................................................20 Automated Driver Assistance Systems .................................................................................................................. 23 Fully Autonomous Driverless Vehicles .................................................................................................................... 24 Vehicle Telematics and Cloud Connectivity ........................................................................................................ 26 Connected Vehicles .............................................................................................................................................................. 26 Smart Cities and Transportation Systems ................................................................................................................... 31 Policy Considerations .................................................................................................................................................................. 36 Appendix A – Summary of Technology Maturity, Challenges, and Risks of Vehicular Technologies ........................................................................................................................................ 40 Appendix B – COVID-19 Considerations ....................................................................................................................... 43 Endnotes ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 45 Figures Figure 1 .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Figure 2 ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Figure 3 ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Figure 4 .......................................................................................................................................................................................................6 Figure 5 ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 6 Figure 6 ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 7 ......................................................................................................................................................................................................10 Figure 8 ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 12 Figure 9 ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 10 .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 15 Figure 11 ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 21 Figure 12 ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 22 Figure 13 ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 23 Figure 14 ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24 Figure 15 ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27 Figure 16 .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 31 Figure 17 ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32 Figure 18 ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32 Figure 19 ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 33 Figure 20 .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 34 Page | 1 Introduction The pace of technology is moving more rapidly than anyone could have predicted. In the early 20th century, it took nearly 75 years for technologies such as the telephone and household stove to reach market penetration (Figure 1). Today, consumer electronics are being adopted by the market at a far quicker rate. As of 2019, 96% of Americans owned a cell phone, and the share of Americans that own smartphones experienced an increase of 81% in less than 10 years.1 This rapid adoption of technology has transformed transportation over the last decade enabling the proliferation of on-demand mobility services like Uber, Lyft, bike and scootershare, and fueling growth in e-commerce and the delivery of goods. Figure 1: Technology adoption has rapidly increased over the last several decades (Sources: Comin and Hobijn (2004) and others OurWorldInData.org/technology-adoption/) The objective of this white paper is to present technological and societal trends that have the potential to radically change how the region’s transportation system is used in the future, and to outline policy considerations that will enable the region to harness the benefits and reduce negative aspects of these trends. The SANDAG 5 Big Moves and the Vision for the 2021 Regional Plan capitalizes on technology to advance a transportation future that is fast, fair, and
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