Flood Forecasting and Warning Network Performance Appraisal Report 2013
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GOVERNMENT OF INDIA CENTRAL WATER COMMISSION FLOOD FORECAST MONITORING DIRECTORATE Uttarakhand Floods on the bank of River Mandakini in Rudraprayag June, 2013 FLOOD FORECASTING AND WARNING NETWORK PERFORMANCE APPRAISAL REPORT 2013 NEW DELHI – 110066 July 2014 Member (RM) Central Water Commission Sewa Bhawan, R. K. Puram New Delhi-110066 PREFACE Central Water Commission had started Flood Forecasting & Warning service in India in November 1958 by setting one forecasting station at Old Delhi Bridge, for the national capital, on the river Yamuna. Today, its network of Flood Forecasting and Warning Stations gradually extended covering almost all the major inter-state flood prone river basins throughout the country. It comprises of 175 Flood Forecasting Stations including 28 inflow forecast in 9 major river basins and 71 sub basins of the country. It covers 15 states besides NCT Delhi and UT of Dadra & Nagar Haveli. The flood forecasting activities of the Commission are being performed every year from May to October through its 20 field divisions which issue flood forecasts and warnings to the civil authorities of the states as well as to other organizations of the central & state governments, as and when the river water level touches or is expected to cross the warning level at the flood forecasting stations. Inflow Forecasts are issued for 28 reservoir/dam/barrages. The forecasts are formulated whenever the inflow into the dam exceeds the threshold value fixed by the respective project authorities for reservoir regulation as well as flood moderation. The flood season 2013 witnessed unprecedented flood events at 3 stations in the rivers Alaknanda, Ganga and Yamuna in the country. High Flood Situation was witnessed at 21 stations in River Brahmaputra in Assam; River Yamuna at Delhi Railway Bridge; River Alaknanda and Ganga in Uttarakhand; Rivers Subarnarekha, Burhabalang in Odisha; River Ganga, Ghaghra and Rapti in Uttar Pradesh, River Wardha in Maharashtra and River Ganga, Ghaghra and Kosi in Bihar. The year witnessed moderate to low intensity floods in many other parts of India. The highlight was the floods in October in association with Cyclonic Storm “Phailin” when flood/inflow forecast stations in Odisha got heavy flows in association with very heavy to exceptionally heavy rainfall. During the year 2013, a total of 7060 forecasts were issued out of which 6760 forecasts (95.75%) were found to be within the limits of accuracy. The number of level forecasts issued during the year 2013 were 5741 out of which 5471 (95.30%) was within the limit of accuracy of ±0.15 m. The number of inflow forecasts issued was 1319 out of which 1289 (97.73%) were within limits of accuracy of + 20%. The Telemetry data have been received in all Divisions. Chambal Division (Jaipur), ERD (Bhubaneshwar), Mahanadi Division (Burla), LKD (Hyderabad) etc. are i successfully using Telemetry data for flood forecasting through Mathematical Model. Other Divisions are also making attempt to use the Telemetry data by developing MIKE 11 model for Flood Forecasting in their jurisdictions. The level of performance achieved, has been possible as a result of the dedicated team work of the officers and staff manning the various activities of hydrometeorological observations & flood forecasting and monitoring the flood forecasting activities of the field offices. India Meteorological Department (IMD) through its Flood Meteorological Offices (FMO) also helped in this endeavour by providing all the Meteorological inputs for formulation of Flood Forecasts. CWC wishes to place its acknowledgements for the services provided by IMD through its various FMOs. Flood Forecast Monitoring (FFM) Directorate plays an important role in compiling the information received from various field offices at Headquarters and issues daily bulletins which are sent to various offices of the MOWR, MHA, Railway Board, Transport Ministry and Ministry of Agriculture. I wish to place on record my deep appreciations of the efforts put in by the officers and staff of FFM Directorate in carrying out the work with utmost devotion & dedication in bringing out this report. The staff of this Directorate, along with other supporting staff from other Directorates attached to this Directorate during flood duties in the flood season of 2012 also deserves all appreciation in keeping the control room fully functional on all the week days, including holidays, Saturdays & Sundays. The control room was kept operational round the clock throughout the flood season. It is hoped that the momentum gained in improving performance, innovations in evaluation, modernization as well as computerization, year after year, will be further accelerated to achieve greater accuracy of each and every forecast especially in high and unprecedented flood situations with the help of mathematical modelling supported by real-time data from telemetry. Suggestions/comments of the Users of this report with a view to further enhance its usefulness are welcomed and will be incorporated in the next edition. New Delhi (K N KESHRI) July, 2014 Member (RM) ii CONTENTS EXECUTIVE 0.1 Meteorological Situation 1 SUMMARY 0.2 Flood Situation 1 0.3 Flood Forecasting Performance 2 Salient features of Flood Forecasting System 3 CHAPTER- 1 NATIONAL FLOOD FORECASTING NETWORK 4 1.1 Flood forecasting services 4 1.2 Flood forecasting network in the country 4 1.3 Classifications of various flood situations 6 1.4 Standard Operating Procedure for Flood Forecasting & 7 Warning 1.5 Inflow Forecast 8 1.6 Expansion of the network of flood forecasting sites 9 1.7 Data Communication System 9 1.7a Wireless Communication 9 1.7b Telemetry 10 1.8 Damage due to floods/ heavy rains between 1953 to 2013 10 1.9 Analysis of performance of flood forecasting network 11 1.10 Organisational set-up of flood forecasting network 11 CHAPTER-2 ROLE OF IMD IN FF ACTIVITIES AND SOUTHWEST 17 MONSOON ACTIVITIES 2.1 Role of IMD & SOUTHWEST MONSOON 17 2.1.a Role of IMD 17 2.1.b Southwest Monsoon 18 2.2 Highlights of south-west monsoon 2013 19 2.3 Onset of south-west monsoon 2013 20 2.4 Chief Synoptic features 22 2.5 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “Phailin” 24 2.6 Withdrawal of southwest monsoon 26 2.7 Formation of Well marked low pressure area between 24th 27 and 27th October 2013 CHAPTER -3 FLOOD FORECAST PERFORMANCE 28 3.1 Flood forecasting evaluation - present criteria and 28 procedure 3.2 Evaluation Criteria for stage/ inflow forecasting 28 3.3 Flood forecasting activities 28 3.4 Riverwise Details Of Flood Forecasting Activities & 29 Accuracy Of Forecast 3.4.1 Brahmaputra Basin 29 3.4.2 Barak and Meghna Basin 29 3.4.3 Ganga Basin 29 3.4.4 Eastern rivers Basins including Mahanadi Basin 29 3.4.5 Godavari Basin 29 3.4.6 Krishna Basin 29 3.4.7 Southern Rivers Basin 30 3.4.8 West Flowing Rivers 30 3.5 Statewise Flood forecasting performance 30 iii 3.5.1 Andhra Pradesh 30 3.5.2 Assam 30 3.5.3 Bihar 30 3.5.4 Chhattisgarh 31 3.5.5 Gujarat 31 3.5.6 Haryana 31 3.5.7 Jharkhand 31 3.5.8 Karnataka 31 3.5.9 Madhya Pradesh 32 3.5.10 Maharashtra 32 3.5.11 Odisha 32 3.5.12 Tripura 33 3.5.13 Uttarakhand 33 3.5.14 Uttar Pradesh 33 3.5.15 West Bengal 34 3.5.16 Dadra & Nagar Haveli 34 3.5.17 NCT of Delhi 34 3.6 An overview of forecasting performance 34 3.6.1 Overall Performance 34 CHAPTER-4 RIVERWISE APPRAISAL OF FLOOD EVENTS 37 4.1 General 37 4.2 Ganga Basin 37 4.3 Brahmaputra basin 37 4.4 Barak & Meghna System 38 4.5 Eastern Rivers System 38 4.6 Mahanadi Basin 38 4.7 Godavari Basin 38 4.8 Krishna Basin 39 4.9 Southern Rivers System 39 4.10 West Flowing Rivers 39 4.11 An overview of forecast events 40 4.11.1 Unprecedented Flood Situation 40 4.11.2 High Flood Situation 41 4.11.3 Moderate and Low Flood Situation 41 4.11.4 No Forecast 41 4.11.5 Flood events in association with “Phailin” 41 4.11.6 Flood Situation Reports for other basins 41 4.11.7 Flood events during February 2013 on river Yamuna 42 CHAPTER–5 DIVISIONWISE STATUS ON USE OF TELEMETRY 43 AND MATHEMATICAL MODEL 5.1 Chambal Division, Jaipur 43 5.2 Eastern Rivers Division, Bhubaneshwar 43 5.3 Mahanadi Division, Burla 44 5.4 Lower Godavari Division, Hyderabad 45 5.5 Lower Krishna Division, Hyderabad 45 CHAPTER 6 6.1 General 46 6.2 Appreciation letters received during flood season 2013 46 6.3 Appreciation Certificate 49 iv No Title Page Number TABLES Table 1.1 Yearwise positions of number of forecasting sites in CWC 5 1.2 Number of flood forecasting sites in major inter-state river systems 5 1.3 Statewise Flood Forecasting Network in CWC 6 1.4 Damages occurred during flood season 2010 to 2013 11 3.1 Site wise “Forecast Performance” of flood forecasting sites of CWC 36 in Monsoon, 2013 FIGURES Fig. 1.1 Organisation chart of flood forecasting & warning setup of Central 16 Water Commission 2.1 Advance of south-west monsoon 2013 21 2.2 Movement of monsoon depressions during 2013 23 2.3 Observed track of VSCS PHAILIN during 8th-14th October 2013. 25 2.4 Visakhapatnam RADAR imageries based on 1650 UTC of 12th 25 October 2013 2.4 Isochrones of withdrawal of southwest monsoon - 2013 26 3.1 Flood forecasting performance from 2000 to 2013 35 ANNEXURES Annex I Salient Features of Flood Forecasting Stations maintained by Central 51 Water Commission II Basinwise-Riverwise Flood Forecasting information in India during 64 flood season 2013 III Statewise Flood Forecasting information in India during flood 69 season 2013 IV Performance of flood forecasting stations (Divisionwise ) in India 74 during flood season 2013 V Performance of flood forecasting stations (Major basinwise)