Aldermaston Women’s Peace Camp(aign) – Written evidence (RSK0022)

Risk assessment and risk planning

What are the most significant extreme risks that the UK faces? Are these kinds of risks discrete, linked or systemic? What do you understand the term “extreme risk” to mean? (Question 1)

1) The possession of the Trident Nuclear Weapons system by the UK, in conjunction with the USA, poses a significant and extreme systemic risk to the UK since possession can lead to their use which threatens humanitarian and environmental catastrophe, being a weapon “of unique characteristics” & “the effects of which simply cannot be contained within the territories of the contending states” (ICJ 1996 Advisory Opinion). See also the preamble to the UN Treaty on the Prohibition on Nuclear Weapons which is now international law – e.g. “Cognizant that the catastrophic consequences of nuclear weapons cannot be adequately addressed, transcend national borders, pose grave implications for human survival, the environment, socioeconomic development, the global economy, food security and the health of current and future generations, and have a disproportionate impact on women and girls, including as a result of ionizing radiation”.

2) The possession of nuclear weapons causes systemic risks in areas of national security, the military and international political standing. This is because through their very nature they become the weapon of ultimate choice because of the magnitude of their threat to others, and because their expense limits other weapon systems and fighting capacities. The mere fact of their possession retains the threat of use, and their use then becomes a threat to all humanity with the concomitants of international fear and opprobrium.

3) The physical risks of possession are two-fold. First that, especially without a no first use policy, the UK might actually use the weapons, either through intent or accident, with all the humanitarian, environmental and long-term catastrophe which would ensue, even before acknowledging the effects of any retaliation. Second, possession of such weapons invites both terrorist and state attack.

4) Such risks are extreme in the results of their realisation whilst being probable enough for regular practise of counter measures.

These risks include:

5) Accidents leading to the use of nuclear weapons which can be caused by human mistakes on a personal, national or international level; political misjudgements between states; or machine error - computer errors, problems with detection systems etc., and the development of artificial intelligence and machine learning in weapons systems.

6) Military or other use whether by intention or missteps.

7) Proliferation by the UK and other countries through:

i) the proposed development of tactical nuclear weapons presenting the risk that governments could erroneously believe that low yield nuclear weapons could be used in a limited or tactical operation without the dangers of escalation or environmental disaster.

ii) Refinement and/or extension of existing nuclear weapons systems.

iii) the increased capabilities of ballistic missile defence systems.

iv) Proliferation by States attempting to acquire nuclear weapons outwith the Non Proliferation Treaty – N. Korea, India, Israel, Iran.

8) The lack of meaningful dialogue between states in recent years leading to relations between Nuclear States deteriorating and mistrust increasing, including new arms races (India & Pakistan, Iran, Israel) and the nuclearisation of regions (the Middle East), with the attendant possibility of acquiring nuclear weapons.

9) Lack of general battlefield capabilities increasing the risk of nuclear weapon use. 10) The UK’s breach of Art 6 Non Proliferation Treaty since the Trident system extends the number of targets per missile rather than undertaking “to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date & to nuclear disarmament, & on a Treaty on general & complete disarmament under strict & effective international control”. Instead the UK refused to collaborate in, or sign, the new UN Treaty on the Prohibition on Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). Such disregard for binding solemn promises (Art VI NPT) and international law (TPNW) results in loss of international reputation and trustworthiness.

11) The extreme expense of maintaining a nuclear arsenal resulting in lack of finance for either alternative less destructive weapons systems, or other more pressing life-affirming systems such as the NHS (which has been overwhelmed by the current Covid19 pandemic - with further pandemics forecast as unavoidable) education, a more just and equal society, adequate housing, sustainable development etc.

12) Terrorist attack on nuclear weapons facilities.

13) Radiation leaks at nuclear weapons facilities due to flooding, fire or other events

14) Radiation leaks resulting from accidents in the transportation of nuclear warheads and materials - eg nuclear convoys between AWE Aldermaston & AWE Burghfield and Coulport.

15) Safety failures of the physical infrastructure at AWE Aldermaston & AWE Burghfield necessitating a huge new build within each establishment, much of which has overrun in both expense & completion; likewise at other Trident facilities such as at Faslane, Coulport, Devonport.

16) Safety failures within both AWE Aldermaston and Burghfield necessitating the ONR placing them in continuing special measures for a number of years.

17) Safety failures of the nuclear convoy vehicles - multiple breakdowns during journeys to & from both AWEs & RNAD Coulport (as witnessed & recorded by Nukewatch). 18) The running of three nuclear convoy trips to and from Scotland during Covid-19 lock-downs (two trips during December 2020 and one in January 2021coinciding with an extreme weather national emergency - Storm Christoph – Jan 14th/15th; & 20th/ 21st.)

What challenges are there in developing resilience capability? (Question 10)

19) The need for UK governments to contemplate international relations on the world stage without relying on UN Security Council status, membership of which is currently based on the possession of nuclear weapons.

20) A failure to comply with international law forbidding the indiscriminate killing of civilians in general and in particular those with protected status (the old, the young, women, medical personnel etc) which the use of nuclear weapons would cause.

21) A failure to realise that nuclear weapons are not “normal” but are highly immoral and contrary to the TPNW.

22) The UK failure to sign the UN TPNW.

23) The UK failure to honour Art VI of the NPT.

24) The UK failure to adopt a no first use policy.

25) The UK failure to address the military industrial complex issue, including the lack of transparency regarding the interrelation and co-dependence between civil nuclear use and military nuclear weapon use.

26) The UK failure to address nuclear waste now - other than using interim waste depositories – which pushes the problem into the future, during which the amounts increase along with the dangers of environmental & terrorism risks. 27) The UK failure to consult with the international community on actions involving nuclear weapons which should not be taken in crisis situations, including in the space and cyber domains.

28) The general failure of governments in acknowledging that any radiation from nuclear weapons risks affect women (and children) disproportionately whereas most risk assessment & policy making is made by men.

22 January 2021