The Impact of Earning an Associate Degree Prior to Transfer on Bachelor’S Degree Completion: a Look at Recent High School Graduates
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The Impact of Earning an Associate Degree Prior to Transfer on Bachelor’s Degree Completion: A Look at Recent High School Graduates Jonathan M. Turk, Ph.D. Senior Policy Research Analyst, Center for Policy Research and Strategy, American Council on Education Center for Policy Research and Strategy The American Council on Education’s Center for Policy Research and Strategy (CPRS) pursues thought leadership at the intersection of public policy and institutional strategy. CPRS provides senior postsecondary leaders and public policymakers with an evidence base to responsibly promote emergent practices in higher education with an emphasis on long-term and systemic solutions for an evolving higher education landscape and changing American demographic. Founded in 1918, ACE is the major coordinating body for all the nation’s higher education institutions, representing more than 1,600 college and university presidents and related associations. It provides leadership on key higher education issues and influences public policy through advocacy. Hobsons Hobsons is a leading education technology company that supports K-12 schools, systems, and higher education institutions to ensure that students finish what they start. Hobsons’ solutions promote self-discovery and interest exploration; academic and career planning; college preparation, best-fit admissions and enrollment; predictive analytics, advising and holistic student support. To learn more about Hobsons, visit its website at www.hobsons.com. Acknowledgements I would like to thank the multiple people who made this work possible. First, thank you to my partners at Hobsons for funding this project. I look forward to working with you all in disseminating the results of this and future work. Additionally, I would like to thank my colleagues at CPRS and those at other institutions and associations for providing constructive feedback on earlier drafts of this report. Table of Contents — Summary 4 The Research Study 6 Study Findings 11 Recommendations 18 Additional Resources 23 References 25 Appendix: Methods 29 The Impact of Earning an Associate Degree Prior to Transfer on Bachelor’s Degree Completion | 3 I. Summary The Impact of Earning an Associate Degree Prior to Transfer on Bachelor’s Degree Completion: A Look at Recent High School Graduates — This research brief is the third in a series of four that explore outcomes for recent high school graduates who begin their postsecondary education in a community college. Analyzing national data from the U.S. Department of Education’s Education Longitudinal Study (ELS) of 2002 and accompanying Postsecondary Education Transcript Study, this study examined the impact of earning an associate degree prior to transfer on the probability of earning a bachelor’s degree. In this study, all students began their postsecondary enrollment in a community college and transferred to a four-year institution. However, some had earned associate degrees before transferring while others had not. Because students self-select into earning or not earning an associate degree, doubly robust estimation for causal inference—a propensity score based technique—was used to estimate less biased and more accurate results. The results indicate that earning an associate degree prior to transfer neither increased nor decreased the likelihood of completing a bachelor’s degree. The full results of the doubly robust model suggest that factors including earning a strong GPA while enrolled in community college and the control and selectivity of the four-year institutions to which students transfer are stronger predictors of bachelor’s degree attainment. Additional research will be needed to explore how different types of associate degrees, the major students choose to pursue upon transferring, and different transfer and articulation policies potentially impact bachelor’s degree attainment. The Impact of Earning an Associate Degree Prior to Transfer on Bachelor’s Degree Completion | 4 Though the key finding of this study indicates that earning an associate degree prior to transfer makes no significant impact on the chances of earning a bachelor’s degree, earning an associate degree may still be a wise investment for transfer students. According to one national estimate, between 1994 and 2014, more than 31 million students enrolled in college and left without receiving a degree or certificate (Shapiro et al. 2014). In this study alone, nearly one-third of all students who transferred to a four-year institution had yet to earn either an associate degree or a bachelor’s degree 10 years after high school. While some were still enrolled, many had left postsecondary education entirely without a degree. Because more and more jobs are requiring a postsecondary credential, earning an associate degree prior to transfer may be the best strategy to hedge against the prospect of departing higher education without any degree. This brief concludes with three recommendations for policymakers and practitioners to help increase degree attainment and reduce the proportion of the population with some college, but no degree: 1. Actively promote the economic value of an associate degree to students. 2. Encourage bachelor’s degree attainment through comprehensive transfer and articulation policies that incentivize associate degree completion. 3. Establish clear policies for reverse transfer and degree reclamation. A large and increasing number of students are enrolling in multiple colleges and universities during their postsecondary careers. As a result, a greater focus must be placed on better serving and supporting transfer students across the entire U.S. higher education system. While the associate degree can yield significant economic returns for students on its own, policies and practices must be improved to strengthen the value of an associate degree as a stepping-stone to a bachelor’s degree for transfer students. The Impact of Earning an Associate Degree Prior to Transfer on Bachelor’s Degree Completion | 5 II.The Research Study The Research Study — Community colleges serve as an entry point to postsecondary education for hundreds of thousands of students seeking a bachelor’s degree each year (Cohen, Brawer, and Kisker 2014; Drury 2003). Because of their open access missions, these institutions can offer students a more accessible and affordable path to earning a bachelor’s degree. According to recent data from the National Student Clearinghouse, nearly 270,000 first-time community college students in 2010 transferred to a four-year college or university within six years (Shapiro et al. 2017). This equates to almost 32 percent of all first-time community college students that year. One key decision prospective transfer students must make is how long to stay at their community college. Should they stay longer, earn an associate degree first, and then transfer? Or should they transfer sooner, having completed some number of transferable courses but not enough to earn an associate degree? Looking again to those 270,000 transfer students, only a third transferred having first earned either a certificate or an associate degree (Shapiro et al. 2017). While there are many potential explanations for why so many students transfer without first earning an associate degree, one potential reason may be a lack of perceived value linked to earning an associate degree when a bachelor’s degree or higher is the end goal. While there may limited additive labor market benefits associated with earning both an associate degree and a bachelor’s degree, earning an associate degree first may significantly increase the chances a transfer student will earn a bachelor’s degree. With only 42 percent of those 270,000 transfer students earning The Impact of Earning an Associate Degree Prior to Transfer on Bachelor’s Degree Completion | 6 a bachelor’s degree within six years, research is needed to better identify ways to increase bachelor’s degree attainment among transfer students. This study is the third in a series of four briefs that explore outcomes for recent high school graduates who begin their postsecondary education in a community college. The first1 and second2 briefs explored predictors of upward transfer and postsecondary credential completion for community college students and made recommendations on ways to improve student outcomes. In this brief, I evaluated the impact of earning an associate degree prior to transfer—compared with transferring without an associate degree—on the likelihood of attaining a bachelor’s degree. Because students themselves choose whether to earn an associate degree prior to transfer, I employed a quasi-experimental statistical technique designed to mitigate this self-selection bias and generate more accurate estimates of the potential impact of associate degree completion on bachelor’s degree attainment. Previous Research A large body of research exists on factors that influence the likelihood of associate degree completion within the community college context. This literature provided insight necessary to identify the independent variables used in this study. For a brief review of that literature, see Turk (2017). What follows now is a review of a growing number of studies that have evaluated the impact of community college enrollment, as well as associate degree completion on the likelihood that students will earn a bachelor’s degree. While community colleges were established, in part, to provide a more accessible path to earning a bachelor’s degree, researchers have long been concerned