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Golden Rules for a Golden Age of Gas

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Golden Rules for a Golden Age of Gas Golden Rules for a Golden Age of Gas World Energy Outlook Special Report on Unconventional Gas Golden Rules for a Golden Age of Gas World Energy Outlook Special Report on Unconventional Gas Natural gas is poised to enter a golden age, but this future hinges critically on the successful development of the world’s vast unconventional gas resources. North American experience shows unconventional gas – notably shale gas – can be exploited economically. Many countries are lining up to emulate this success. But some governments are hesitant, or even actively opposed. They are responding to public concerns that production might involve unacceptable environmental and social damage. This report, in the World Energy Outlook series, treats these aspirations and anxieties with equal seriousness. It features two Golden Rules for a new cases: a Golden Rules Case, in which the highest practicable standards are adopted, gaining industry a “social licence to operate”; and its counterpart, in which the tide turns against unconventional gas as constraints prove too difficult to overcome. Golden Age of Gas The report: Describes the unconventional gas resource and what is involved in exploiting it. Identifies the key environmental and social risks and how they can be addressed. Suggests the Golden Rules necessary to realise the economic and energy security benefits while meeting public concerns. Spells out the implications of compliance with these rules for governments and industry, including on development costs. Assesses the impact of the two cases on global gas trade patterns and pricing, energy security and climate change. For more information, and the free download of this report, please visit: www.worldenergyoutlook.org WEO-2012 to be released 12 November 2012 Golden Rules for a Golden Age of Gas World Energy Outlook Special Report on Unconventional Gas 001-02_pages de début.indd 1 14/05/2012 12:33:37 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974. Its primary mandate was – and is – two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative research and analysis on ways to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28 member countries and beyond. The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among its member countries, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports. The Agency’s aims include the following objectives: Secure member countries’ access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular, through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions. Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protection in a global context – particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute to climate change. Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis of energy data. Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy effi ciency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies. Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement and dialogue with non-member countries, industry, international organisations and other stakeholders. IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea (Republic of) Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal © OECD/IEA, 2012 Slovak Republic International Energy Agency Spain 9 rue de la Fédération Sweden 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France Switzerland www.iea.org Turkey United Kingdom Please note that this publication United States is subject to specifi c restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The European Commission The terms and conditions are available also participates in online at www.iea.org/about/copyright.asp the work of the IEA. Acknowledgements This report was prepared by the Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) of the International Energy Agency. It was designed and directed by Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the IEA. The analysis was co-ordinated by Christian Besson and Tim Gould. Principal contributors to this report were Marco Baroni, Laura Cozzi, Ian Cronshaw, Capella Festa, Matthew Frank, Timur Gül, Paweł Olejarnik, David Wilkinson and Peter Wood. Other contributors included Amos Bromhead, Dafydd Elis, Timur Topalgoekceli and Akira Yanagisawa. Sandra Mooney provided essential support. Robert Priddle carried editorial responsibility. The report benefited from valuable comments and feedback from other experts within the IEA, including Bo Diczfalusy, Didier Houssin and Laszlo Varro. The Communication and Information Office was instrumental in bringing the book to completion. Thanks also go to Debra Justus for proofreading the text. A high-level workshop organised by the IEA and hosted by the Polish Ministry of Economy and co-hosted by the Mexican Ministry of Energy was held on 7 March 2012 in Warsaw to gather essential input to this study. The workshop participants have contributed valuable new insights, feedback and data for this analysis. More details may be found at www.worldenergyoutlook.org/aboutweo/workshops/. Many experts from outside the IEA provided input, commented on the underlying analytical work and reviewed the report. Their comments and suggestions were of great value. They include: Saleh Abdurrahman National Energy Council of Indonesia Marco Arcelli Enel Tristan Aspray ExxonMobil Kamel Bennaceur Schlumberger Roberto Bocca World Economic Forum Clay Bretches National Petroleum Council, United States John Broderick University of Manchester Mark Brownstein Environmental Defense Fund, United States Carey Bylin Environmental Protection Agency, United States Robert Cekuta Department of State, United States Xavier Chen BP, China Armond Cohen Clean Air Task Force, United States John Corben Schlumberger Bruno Courme Total 2012 Randall Cox Queensland Water Commission, Australia OECD/IEA, 3 © Acknowledgements 003-06_Acknowledgements.indd 3 14/05/2012 12:36:06 John Deutch Massachusetts Institute of Technology, United States Martin Diaper Environment Agency, United Kingdom Carmine Difiglio Department of Energy, United States Enrique Domínguez National Hydrocarbons Commission, Mexico Amy Emmert American Petroleum Institute John Foran Natural Resources Canada Mario Gabriel Ministry of Energy, Mexico David Goldwyn Goldwyn Global Strategies Sila Guiance Department of Energy and Climate Change, United Kingdom John Hanger Eckert Seamans Cherin & Mellott Gregory Hild Chevron Cal Hill Energy Resources Conservation Board, Canada Masazumi Hirono The Japan Gas Association Kyel Hodenfield Schlumberger Anil Jain Government of Madhya Pradesh , India Ben Jarvis Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism, Australia Jostein Dahl Karlsen Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, Norway Izabela Kielichowska GE Energy Ken Koyama The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Alan Krupnick Resources for the Future, United States Xiaoli Liu Energy Research Institute, China Craig Mackenzie Scottish Widows Investment Partnership Tatiana Mitrova Skolkovo Energy Centre, Russian Klaus Mohn Statoil Trevor Morgan Menecon Consulting Ed Morse CitiGroup Aldo Napolitano Eni, Poland Alexander Ochs World Watch Institute Niall O’Shea The Co-operative Asset Management Idelso Piazza Petrobras Roberto Potì Edison Wiesław Prugar Orlen Upstream Michael Schuetz European Commission Directorate-General for Energy Scott Sherman Hess Corporation Christopher Smith Department of Energy, United States 2012 Jonathan Stern Oxford Institute for Energy Studies OECD/IEA, 4 © World Energy Outlook | Special Report 003-06_Acknowledgements.indd 4 14/05/2012 12:36:06 Małgorzata Szymańska Ministry of Economy, Poland 1 Wim Thomas Shell Susan Tierney Analysis Group 2 Mihai Tomescu European Commission Directorate-General for Environment Noé van Hulst Energy Academy Europe, The Netherlands 3 Adnan Vatansever Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, United States Frank Verrastro Center for Strategic and International Studies, United States 4 Jay Wagner Plexus Energy Rick Wilkinson Australian Petroleum Production & Exploration Association 5 Piotr Woźniak Ministry of Environment, Poland Mel Ydreos International Gas Union 6 The individuals and organisations that contributed to this study are not responsible for any opinions or judgements contained in this study. All errors and omissions are solely the responsibility of the IEA. Comments and questions are welcome and should be addressed to: Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Director, Office of the Chief Economist International Energy Agency 9, rue de la Fédération 75739 Paris Cedex 15 France Telephone: (33-1) 4057 6670 Fax: (33-1) 4057 6509 Email: [email protected] More information about the World Energy Outlook is available at www.worldenergyoutlook.org. This publication has been produced under the authority of the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of individual IEA member countries. 2012 OECD/IEA, 5 © Acknowledgements 003-06_Acknowledgements.indd 5 14/05/2012 12:36:06 003-06_Acknowledgements.indd 6 2012 14/05/2012 12:36:06 OECD/IEA, © Table of Contents Acknowledgements 3 Executive Summary 9 The Golden Rules 13 Introduction
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